The Marshall Plan and the Spanish postwar economy: a welfare loss analysis1

This article uses historical fact as a natural experiment to measure a country's welfare loss from shifting from an allowed to a restricted trade situation, based on international trade theory. A welfare loss of 8 per cent of GDP is found. The evolution of domestic import and export prices in Spain in 1940–58 fits international trade theory assumptions. The main years of autarky are not those commonly considered, but 1947–55, marked by the exclusion of Spain from the Marshall Plan and the Madrid Treaty between Franco's regime and the US. The upper‐bound welfare loss for 1947–55 is 26 per cent of GDP.     

On the Impact of Transportation Costs on Trade in a Multilateral World

This article proposes to account for the differences in the importance of transport costs, depending on characteristics of trading partners. In a multiregion model of trade in differentiated goods we expect a smaller impact of transport costs on a country's exports as a share of importer gross domestic product (GDP) the more (less) relatively capital-abundant the exporter (importer) is and the lower (higher) production costs are as captured by GDP at given factor endowments and diversity, all else equal. Empirically, this requires four interaction terms in addition to the direct impact of transport costs when estimating log-linear gravity models: one with the exporter GDP per capita or capital-labor ratio, a second one with the importer GDP per capita or capital-labor ratio, and a third and fourth with exporter and importer GDP, respectively. The hypotheses are strongly supported by the evidence from a large panel of bilateral trade between 1970 and 2000.     

An assessment of three measures of competitiveness

An Assessment of Three Measures of Competitiveness. -This paper discusses three indicators of competitiveness: real exchange rates based on consumer price indices, export unit values of manufacturing goods, and normalized unit labour costs in manufacturing. It discusses how each of these measures is associated with changes in a country's balance of trade in goods and nonfactor services and examines how each one of these indicators is related to each other. It then examines the empirical performance of each in terms of its ability to explain trade flows. The conclusion is that in examining an issue as complex as trade competitiveness, the use of one indicator is suboptimal.     

A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers

Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

近20年我国国防支出与经济增长关系分析

以1997年到2017年间国防支出与GDP的数据为基础，对近20年来我国国防支出与经济增长的关系进行了探讨，并进一步地分析了在军民融合过程中经济建设与国防建设之间的发展关系。首先，通过描述性统计、相关性分析、回归分析等方法，初步探讨了国防支出与GDP之间的关系；然后基于VAR模型进行了相关的计算和分析验证；最后综合这些方法，对结果进行了较为系统全面的讨论。结果显示，近20年来，我国国防支出与经济增长基本呈正相关关系，经济增长与国防支出能够相互促进，呈现一种良性的关系。长期来看，不仅经济的增长有利于军费投入的提高，反过来国防支出也可以调节经济总量，促进现有资源的充分利用，从而促进经济增长。这从侧面反映出近年来我国国防建设与经济建设、安全与发展能够实现统筹兼顾、军民融合总体发展成效显著，建设军民一体化的国家战略协调能力正在不断提高。     

“Weak” Trade,European States in the International Arms 1920–1937: The impact of external threats,market forces,and domestic constraints

Abstract

This article analyses the small- and medium-size arms trade behaviour of nine “weak” (that is, limited political and economic influence) European states in the interwar period: Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. In particular, the significance of external threats, market forces and domestic constraints is assessed for these states' military trade. Firstly, the hypothesis that there might be fewer domestic constraints on the military trade behaviour of these states was not supported by the analysis. The increased military spending of the 1930s seemed to benefit the domestic producers. Secondly, most of these countries were dependent on their aggregate military trade, especially military exports. Thirdly, the hypothesis that the differences between these states might be explained by geographical, strategic or economic factors was found too simplistic. Only proximate groupings could be developed based on various types of categories. Fourthly, “weak” states were found to benefit from the intense international political and economic competition of the 1930s, enabling the pursuit of new military export markets amidst increasing threats.     

FIFTY YEARS OF TRADE POLICY IN INDONESIA: NEW WORLD TRADE,OLD TREATMENTS

Indonesia's trade policy has evolved over the last 50 years. It has been influenced by the country's level of development and the conflict between openness and protectionism; external developments, such as commodity booms and busts and increased competition; and international commitments, whether multilateral or regional. As a result, trade policy has often been ambivalent and ineffective. Given that Indonesia has undergone various transformations and that the world is a different place from what it was in 1965, the country needs to take a more pragmatic and forward-looking stance. Trade policy needs to be part of a comprehensive strategy to improve competitiveness and diversify exports. If Indonesia is to be part of the new paradigm, where the production of goods and services is based on production networks and global value chains, its policy focus will need to shift from protecting and favouring sectors to promoting trade and industrial policies that encourage the flow of goods, services, and people.     

IMPACTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM: A SYSTEM GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS ESTIMATION

Using a system generalized method of moments model, the present paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalization on employment in Vietnam from 1999 to 2004. The results show that the increase in industrial output increased labor demand, whereas the increasing wage rate led to a decline in the employment level. The impact of export expansion on derived labor demand was positive and statistically significant, indicating that the higher level of exports than previously presented employment opportunities for the country's large labor surplus. As far as imports are concerned, empirical observations indicate that imports did not necessarily negatively impact Vietnam's employment level.     

Correlation of wage growth and labor productivity in military-industrial complex of Russia through 2020

An analysis of wage growth and labor productivity in the military-industrial complex of Russia is given in the article. The evaluation and analysis of military spending in Russia and countries in the world are presented. Error correction calculations of the amount and proportion of military spending in GDP compared with the data of the World Bank has been made.     

A Tale of Two Peripheries: Real Wages in Denmark and New Zealand 1875–1939.

Abstract

Denmark achieved dramatic real wage growth after 1870, compared to other European economies and to those of the New World. The ingredients of Denmark's success are gauged by comparison with one its major competitors in the British food-products markets, New Zealand. Faster Danish productivity growth explains only part of Denmark's faster real wage growth. Open economy forces, chiefly international capital flows before 1913, and especially Danish trade union militancy around the end of World War I, influenced income distribution and especially favoured wages over property income in Denmark. Denmark's GDP per capita equalled New Zealand levels between the world wars but her real wages surged past those of New Zealand as distributional shifts favoured Denmark's wage earners.     

数字贸易网络结构及影响因素——基于“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)双边贸易数据的研究

科技发展逐渐对贸易模式产生影响。通过社会网络分析法,分析各国之间的数字贸易联系强度,构建面板数据对影响数字贸易流量的相关因素采用固定效应模型进行分析。结果表明:目前各国的数字贸易联系较为密切,核心国家仍然以欧盟国家(地区)为主,中国和其他国家的数字贸易联系仍不强;通信网络基础设施和国家对跨境数据的管控和国家经济发展水平等因素对数字贸易均有显著影响。     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon

Abstract: In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of a trade shock and a tariff reform on household poverty for an archetype developing country. Unlike other studies, we present the income distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast to other studies, this paper presents the poverty lines as being endogenous. With this specification, the poverty line will change following a variation in relative prices. With the new distributions and poverty line, the poverty levels of the base year are compared with the ex‐post values. Foster, Greer and Thorbecke's (1984) poverty measures are used. We work with the Cameroon household survey data of 1995–96. We consider two scenarios. The first is a 30 percent fall in the world price of the country's export crop and the second is a reduction of 50 percent in the country's import tariffs. For the first simulation, results indicate a drop in all household incomes and a decrease in the poverty line. Unilateral trade liberalization also has negative consequences on all household incomes. As in the first simulation, the poverty line decreases with a unilateral trade liberalization. In the trade liberalization simulation, the poverty line effect counters the income effect in most cases analyzed. In the other simulation, the poverty line effect attenuates the decrease in the poverty measures.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

东道国基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家的实证分析

基础设施建设是经济社会发展的重要支撑,对国家经贸关系进一步发展具有桥梁作用。基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家2011—2019年面板数据,构建拓展引力模型实证分析东道国基础设施质量分别对中国进口与出口的影响。研究发现：东道国基础设施质量会显著促进中国的进口与出口贸易,但对中国进口贸易促进作用强于出口,且东道国GDP增长促进了中国进口与出口贸易增加,其对中国进口贸易促进作用大于出口;而东道国与中国的地理距离对中国进口贸易限制作用大于出口,东道国与中国为邻国、与中国具有共同语言及签订自由贸易协定会推动中国对其进出口贸易增长。在此基础上,提出促进中国与沿线国家进出口贸易的对策建议。     

The “fifth world”: Regarding the historical dimension and current relevance of the refugee and migration problem

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether the host country's financial reform promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We test the hypothesis on the reform period Chinese provincial yearly panel data. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation shows that the effect of financial reform on inward FDI to GDP ratios is not statistically significant after controlling for other variables and time and province effects. Consistent with the previous studies, market size and openness to international trade have significant effects on the FDI/GDP ratio in both Least squares dummy variables and system GMM estimations.     

Government Bias in Education,Schooling Attainment,and Long‐Run Growth

A surprising cross‐country stylized fact is that higher public spending on education tends to lower the long‐run growth rate of per capita GDP and the returns to schooling. This is contrary to the conventional wisdom that education is a major driver of growth. In this article, we revisit this issue and try to understand these puzzling facts in terms of an endogenous growth model. Our cross‐country calibration of the growth model predicts that countries with a greater government involvement in education experience lower schooling efforts and lower growth.