A MODEL FOR DETERMINING OPTIMAL MARKETING AND FEEDING POLICIES FOR BEEF CATTLE*,†

The decisions entailed in optimally sequencing cattle liveweights are complex dynamic ones. Dynamic programming is shown to be a suitable framework for dealing with some of the non-linear and discontinuous functions involved. A subproblem is the finding of least cost rations, which is solved by running a linear programme as a subroutine of the dynamic programme. Estimates for energy requirements are based on the metabolisable energy system suggested by the Agricultural Research Council (A.R.C.). A simple method for allowing the model to consider grazing possibilities is described, which is illustrated by showing the effect on optimal policies of changing the stocking rate.     

MARKETING AUSTRALIAN BEEF AND EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION SCHEMES*

The Australian Meat Board (AMB) can influence the quantities sent to and the prices received for Australian beef and veal in the domestic and various export markets. Through its power to grant export licences and the conditions to be met in obtaining export licences the AMB can adopt the role of a price discriminating monopolist without supply control. This paper evaluates the price, quantity, efficiency and distribution effects of the export diversification scheme introduced by the AMB in 1968, of some modified schemes proposed in 1976, and of an alternative system whereby rights to export to premium export markets with quota restrictions are auctioned.     

HERD INVENTORY AND SLAUGHTER SUPPLY RESPONSE OF BOTSWANA BEEF CATTLE PRODUCERS

A statistical model composed of rational distributed lags was used to estimate cattle inventory and cattle slaughter in the livestock sector of the Republic of Botswana. The impact of range and biological conditions, government infrastructure, technology, and cattle prices were tested in the initial maintained hypotheses. Results revealed that a polynomial rational lag structure, or cyclical effect, characterised the behaviour of herd inventories specific to changes in cattle prices. Contemporaneous decisions to market slaughter cattle were affected by the long-term cycle as well as the more direct influence of slaughter prices and range conditions within a one to two year period. The responsiveness of these sectors to changes in cattle prices is qualified within the biological and climatic constraints, and customs of the tribal and commercial cattle producing economies. It appears that the significance of the price-elasticities stands in contrast to the findings of other studies.     

我国肉牛养殖环境效率及影响因素分析

[目的]当前我国正处在食物消费结构转型升级背景下,牛肉需求量持续上升,同时环保约束日益趋紧、牛肉进口量不断攀升等使得我国肉牛产业面临严峻挑战。因此提升肉牛养殖环境效率、探究影响环境效率的关键因素,对稳定牛肉市场供给、促进肉牛产业的健康持续发展十分关键。[方法]文章利用1997—2017年投入产出数据,借助考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型对黑龙江、河南、宁夏、陕西和新疆5省区肉牛养殖环境效率进行测算,分析其时空分布特征,探究影响肉牛养殖环境效率的重要因素。[结果] 1997—2017年我国肉牛养殖的环境效率均值为0.954 7,不同地区的环境效率存在显著差异,河南、黑龙江和宁夏处在高值区域,而陕西和新疆处在低值区域。物质劳动生产率、疫病风险以及饲料结构均对肉牛养殖环境效率具有显著影响。[结论](1)肉牛养殖的环境效率存在一定的空间差异,因此在各省区在贯彻执行中央政府统一政策部署的条件下,应当根据自身实际,因地制宜制定有利于提高当地肉牛养殖环境效率的相关政策。(2)物质劳动生产率对肉牛养殖环境效率具有显著正向影响,而疫病风险和饲料结构对其产生显著的负向影响,因此鼓励提高物质劳动生产率、防范并降低疫病风险、科学改善饲料结构将有利于提升肉牛养殖的环境效率。     

A STUDY OF RETAILER AWARENESS IN THE MARKETING OF BEEF IN ALBERTA*

Opinions about beef retailing were obtained from meat retailers in the province of Alberta. The study revealed that meat retailers do not have adequate consumer information and do not recognize the importance of such information to their operations. Furthermore, the study indicated that the retailer is basically conservative in his attitude to change and innovation and that meat retailing is production, not marketing, oriented. This study disclosed that the most important problem currently facing beef retailers is related to the present grading system. The present grade standards encourage the production of overfat carcasses. Overfinished carcasses are the primary cause of low net retail margins. Irregularity of supplies and the need for consumer education are also cited as problems of beef retailing. On a fait un sondage des opinions auprès des détaillants de viande dans la Province de ?Alberta sur la vente en détail du boeuf. ?étude a révélé que les détaillants de viande n'ont pas de renseignements consommateurs adéquats, et qu'ils ne reconnaissent pas ?importance de tels rensei nements dans leurs opérations. En plus, ?etude a indiqué que le détaillanl est foncièrement conservateur dans son attitude en ce qui concerne les changements el ?innovalion; et que la vente en dètail de la viande est orientèe vers la production et non pas vers le marchè. ?étude a révélé que le problème le plus crucial que recontrent couramment les détaillants de bouuf est en rapport direct avec le système actuel de classement. Les standards de classement actuels encouragent la production de carcasses sur-graissée. Ces carcasses sont la source principale de has bénéfices nets dans la vente en détail. On aborde également les problèmes de ?irregularité de la marchandise et de besoin ?éducation du consommateur dans la vente en détail du boeuf     

DYNAMIC FARM—LEVEL PLANNING MODEL FOR BEEF FEEDLOT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

The study is aimed at formulating and empirically applying a dynamic farm-level model for the planning of optimal beef feedlot production and marketing strategies. A dynamic programming (DP) model is used to calculate the optimal feeding schedule (i.e. liveweight gain sequence), market liveweight and stock replacement for a single bull calf over a one-year planning period, taking into account seasonal fluctuations of planning parameters such as beef prices, feeding costs, nutritional requirements, and stock replacement costs and obtainability. The DP model includes a linear programming (LP) subroutine for calculating least-cost feed rations. The planning model is empirically applied using data and assumptions representative offeedlots in the Coastal Plain region of Israel where most feedlot production and marketing decisions are made by ‘rule-of-thumb’ using set liveweight gain sequences, market standards and stock replacement decisions. The empirical findings indicate that the profitability of feedlot production and marketing could be increased by an average of 10% over that obtained from ‘rule-of-thumb’ decision rules.     

中国南方肉牛生产空间关联分析及产业发展路径研究

[目的]为了厘清中国南方地区肉牛生产的空间关联关系,挖掘南方地区牛肉增产潜力,探索统一的生产大市场建设路径。[方法]文章基于2008—2020年肉牛生产数据,采用修正后的引力模型构建了南方地区15个省（市、区）的肉牛生产空间关联关系,运用社会网络分析法刻画了各地在肉牛生产空间关联网络中的地位和传导方向。[结果]（1）南方地区肉牛生产具有较强的空间关联性,其关联关系趋于稳定,但仍有巨大发展空间。（2）整体来看,关联网络中,安徽、贵州、四川和云南扮演“中心行动者”的角色;湖南和江西扮演“中介行动者”的角色,上海、福建、浙江和江苏扮演“边缘行动者”的角色。（3）生产板块已初具规模,贵州、云南、广西、四川和湖南是动能传递的终点,是发展南方地区肉牛生产的钥匙。[结论]未来南方肉牛生产大市场建设应在大力发展西南肉牛优势养殖区的基础上,加快建设湖南和江西的基础设施,充分发挥其地理区位的优越性和中介功能。加强省际交流,改良牛种,保障溢出板块的生产动能,完善双向溢出板块的连接功能,挖掘接收板块的生产潜力,布局完善的生产功能区。     

中国肉牛养殖效率差异及提升途径研究

[目的]环境条件差异是我国农牧业发展的客观存在,也是导致农牧业投入产出效率千差万别的重要原因,不考虑环境条件影响的效率分析容易模糊农户的投入产出效率,进而可能掩盖效率差异的原因。通过分析发现全国各地区肉牛养殖存在着客观差异,利用模型处理将各地区环境影响处理到最小,从而得到更为准确的肉牛养殖技术效率值。[方法]文章利用国家肉牛牦牛产业技术体系肉牛养殖投入产出监测数据,采用三阶段DEA模型方法,研究农户肉牛养殖投入产出效率差异及其改善途径。[结果]（1）肉牛养殖投入产出效率与环境条件有密切的关系;（2）剔除环境条件差异影响后,87.11%样本的肉牛养殖投入产出效率发生显著变化,其中47.42%效率下降,39.69%效率提升;（3）投入要素冗余问题是肉牛养殖效率差异的本质,投入要素的冗余在剔环境条件影响后也发生了显著变化,进一步的分析发现我国肉牛养殖劳动力冗余问题在西南产区与东北产区较严重,而饲料投入冗余则呈现牧区、农区、农牧交错带地区逐渐增加的状态。[结论]提升我国肉牛投入产出效率要注重改善饲料投入冗余问题,西南和东北产区还要注重改善劳动力投入冗余的问题。