How Much Are Borrowers Willing to Pay to Remove Uncertainty Surrounding Mortgage Defaults?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Using a large, non-student sample, we assess and differentiate between borrowers’ Risk Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion levels and their...     

Credibility and Multiple SEOs: What Happens When Firms Return to the Capital Market?

Using a sample of firms that conducted multiple seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether firms can build credibility for subsequent SEOs by following through on their stated use of the proceeds from earlier SEOs. We find that firms that state their intention to invest these funds in projects and those that make no such statements, but do invest have relatively more positive announcement returns around subsequent SEO announcements. Our results suggest that the markets are aware of the potential agency costs of equity, have a long memory, and update their beliefs as to the likely use of funds raised by firms.     

Refinance and Mortgage Default: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of HARP’s Impact on Default Rates

This paper examines the impact of refinancing on mortgage defaults based on an empirical investigation of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). We study a unique dataset from Freddie Mac which includes loans funded right before and after the HARP eligibility cutoff date, an exogenous event. Using a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design method, we show that receiving a HARP refinance decreases the expected monthly default rate by about 48–62 percent using different bandwidth specifications.     

Subprime Loan Default Resolutions: Do They Vary Across Mortgage Products and Borrower Demographic Groups?

This paper examines default outcomes for subprime first lien loans during the recent subprime mortgage boom. It conducts this investigation in two phases. The paper first examines factors associated with pre-foreclosure outcomes for subprime mortgages in default. It then examines factors associated with different outcomes for loans that enter foreclosure. These factors include less understood elements such as mortgage product features and borrower demographics. The analysis is based on detailed loan-level data and employs multinomial logit models in a hazard framework. Results show that default resolutions vary with product features and borrower demographics. Adjustable rate and interest-only mortgages, and loans with low- or no-documentation are more likely to enter foreclosure proceedings, and, once in foreclosure, are more likely to become REO. The existence of junior liens increases the probability of the loan remaining in default. Owner-occupancy is associated with lower likelihood of foreclosure initiation and REO, and greater likelihood of curing default. Additionally, default outcomes are impacted by local legal, economic and housing market conditions, and the equity in the home.     

Buildings’ Energy Efficiency and the Probability of Mortgage Default: The Dutch Case

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We investigate the relationship between building energy efficiency and the probability of mortgage default. To this end, we construct a novel...     

Three Triggers? Negative Equity,Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - In understanding the determinants of mortgage default, the consensus has moved from an ‘option theory’ model to the ‘double...     

The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We use duration analysis to assess the impact of securitization, mortgage sector liberalization and government involvement in housing finance on...     

What Drives Target Price Forecasts and Their Investment Value?

This paper examines the informativeness of analysts’ target price forecasts by relating the investment value of target prices to their primary drivers. Decomposing target price forecasts into near‐term earnings forecasts and price‐to‐earnings ratio forecasts, we show that target price revisions reflect information from both components. In addition, we also find that the relative importance of each component in target price revisions is related to firm characteristics. A portfolio based on target price implied expected returns delivers significant abnormal returns. More importantly, we find that the abnormal returns are associated with both earnings and price‐to‐earnings forecasts, which suggests that the informativeness of target price forecasts comes not only from analysts’ ability to forecast short‐term earnings but also from their ability to assess risk and long‐term growth prospect implied in price‐to‐earnings forecasts.     

Culture and capital structure: What else to the puzzle?

This paper investigates four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions –individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation– influence on firms' choices of short-term and long-term capital structures. Cultures influence on corporate risk-taking may drive their debt-to-equity mix based on the higher of their equity book or market value. We empirically test culture influence with a sample of 5968 firms from five industry sectors, across 33 countries, over 2009–2017. We find firms national culture influencing their choices of short-term and long-term debt to book and market value of equity. The influence is more significant on the short-term than the long-term capital structures. Furthermore, it is more significant on the short-term debt to market value of equity and on the long-term debt to book value of equity. Our robustness checks at the firm-level, country-level and sample-level confirm and reinforce our main results. These findings would provide financial analysts, investors, and creditors an in-depth understanding when comparing international firms' capital structures.     

Residential Mortgage Default: The Roles of House Price Volatility, Euphoria and the Borrower’s Put Option

House price volatility; lender and borrower perception of price trends, loan and property features; and the borrower’s put option are integrated in a model of residential mortgage default. These dimensions of the default problem have, to our knowledge, not previously been considered altogether within the same investigation framework. We rely on a sample of individual mortgage loans for 20 counties in Florida, over the period 2001 through 2008, third quarter, with housing price performance obtained from repeat sales analysis of individual transactions. The results from the analysis strongly confirm the significance of the borrower’s put as an operative factor in default. At the same time, the results provide convincing evidence that the experience in Florida is in part driven by lenders and purchasers exhibiting euphoric behavior such that in markets with higher price appreciation there is a willingness to accept recent prior performance as an indicator of future risk. This connection illustrates a familiar moral hazard in the housing market due to the limited information about future prices.     

What Do Banks Evaluate When They Screen Borrowers? Soft Information, Hard Information and Collateral

By applying factor analysis to unique data on loan screening for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan, we investigate the factors that banks actually evaluate when underwriting commercial loans. We find that banks emphasize three factors when they decide whether to grant loans: the relationship factor, the financial statement factor, and the collateral/guarantee factor. We also find that smaller banks place greater emphasis on the relationship and the collateral/guarantee factors, and that banks under competitive pressure emphasize the relationship factor to a greater extent. We interpret these findings based on the theory of relationship lending and lending technologies.     

Mortgage Loan Rates and Deposit Costs: Are They Reliably Linked?

The deposit-cost markup theory of Jaffe and Rosens type suggests that the cost of attracting funds determines prices (mortgage loan rates). Other equally plausible theories argue for the reverse chain of events, whereby mortgage loan rates induce changes in the deposit interest rates. We investigate these alternative hypotheses over the monthly period 1970 to 1994 using causality and cointegration tests with allowances for possible structural breaks. The results from error-correction models indicate the presence of bidirectional causality between the mortgage loan rates and the deposit interest rates. The results further show that the two variables exhibit a strong cointegrating relationship and that several factors play an important role in determining both variables. Our findings underscore the need to continue with efforts to develop and test multivariate error-correction models for the joint determination of the mortgage loan rate and the deposit interest rate.     

Public Policy and Accounting Research: What Is to Be Done?

Abstract

Singleton-Green [2010. The communication gap: Why doesn't accounting research make a greater contribution to debates on accounting policy? Accounting in Europe, 7(2), 129–145] argues that a communication gap between researchers and those involved in public debates on accounting problems significantly reduces the impact of accounting research. A new ICAEW report, The Effects of Mandatory IFRS Adoption in the EU: a Review of Empirical Research, tries to bridge the communication gap on the subject that it covers. The report found not only a significant amount of relevant research, but also that its usefulness was limited in various ways. The paper makes a number of recommendations to researchers: they should point out any biases in the data they use, address some issues through field work, not assume that surrounding institutions are unchanged, be careful to understand the specific features of the countries they cover, investigate differences in previous research, and state the economic significance of their findings. The paper also makes recommendations for non-academic participants in public policy debates, including: they should actively promote relevant research, help researchers get access to information, and help ensure that researchers have the incentives to do what is needed to benefit public policy.     

The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?

The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes that could maintain financial stability. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second ‘southern euro’ bloc. Enhanced fiscal flexibility increases fluctuations in debt and deficit ratios to GDP while keeping average ratios stable, maintaining solvency. A reformed Stability and Growth Pact could be limited to monitoring solvency.     

Lifting the Veil on Reverse Leveraged Buyouts: What Happens During the Private Period?

We document the different types of restructuring activities undertaken during the private period after the reverse leveraged buyout (RLBO) of previously public firms. Preceding the LBO, firm leverage significantly exceeds that of their peers, while their profitability is better than the industry. However, despite their superior performance, these firms are undervalued before going private. While private firms undertake value‐enhancement measures by increasing employee productivity, asset restructuring, decreasing cost of goods sold, and increasing ownership concentration. Enhanced valuation at the RLBO is a result of value capture, as well as efficiencies obtained from restructuring activities. We also identify factors determining the private period duration.     

FHA vs. Subprime Mortgage Originations: Is FHA the Answer to Subprime Lending?

We analyze originations of mortgages guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and of subprime mortgages—loans that dominate the non-prime mortgage market for riskier borrowers. Using home purchase and refinance loans data for 2005, we estimate that a sizeable number of borrowers who got subprime loans would have qualified for FHA loans, implying a potential net flow of borrowers from subprime to FHA, especially for refinance loans at a rate of about 30%. Also, consistent with the FHA’s modernization proposal to increase its loan limits, we find that increasing the limits on FHA loans could help to attract borrowers, mostly of home purchase loans, who are likely to be constrained by the lower-priced house limits. Our findings are generally in line with the recent increased flow of mortgages to FHA, and suggest that FHA loans could be the answer to the current subprime lending crisis.     

Transition to IFRS and compliance with mandatory disclosure requirements: What is the signal?

The present study examines 153 Greek listed companies' compliance with all IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements during 2005 and complements and extends prior literature in the following way. The unique setting i.e., measuring compliance with IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements during the first year of IFRS implementation, allows for examination of the possibility that the changes in the 2004 shareholders' equity and net income, as a result of the adoption of IFRS, constitute explanatory factors for compliance. Thus, this study hypothesises that, in addition to the financial measures and other corporate characteristics that prior literature identifies as proxies for explaining compliance, a significant change in fundamental financial measures, because of the change in the accounting regime, may also explain compliance based on the premises of the relevant disclosure theories. The findings confirm these hypotheses. This study also makes a methodological contribution on measuring compliance with all IFRS mandatory disclosure requirements by using two different disclosure index methods and pointing out the different conclusions may be drawn as a result.     

The financial crisis: What is there to learn?

Many are currently studying the origins of the financial crisis in an attempt to answer two seemingly simple questions: why did it happen, and can another crisis be prevented? Those two questions have proved incredibly divisive. The majority opinion of The United States Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was submitted with two dissenting positions. Furthermore, The 2010 Economic Report of the United States President does not perfectly align with any opinion presented in that report. Few studies, however, provide proper consideration to the evolution of macroeconomic thought and lengthening of the business cycle preceding the current crisis.     

Fintech and banking: What do we know?

This paper is a review of the literature on fintech and its interaction with banking. Included in fintech are innovations in payment systems (including cryptocurrencies), credit markets (including P2P lending), and insurance, with Blockchain-assisted smart contracts playing a role. The paper provides a definition of fintech, examines some statistics and stylized facts, and then reviews the theoretical and empirical literature. The review is organized around four main research questions. The paper summarizes our knowledge on these questions and concludes with questions for future research.