Explaining regional variation in equilibrium real estate prices and income

We combine the real estate model of Potepan (1996) with the spatial equilibrium approach of Roback (1982) to prove the interdependency of housing prices, rental prices, building land prices and income via one simultaneous equilibrium analysis. Using unique cross-sectional data on the majority of German counties and cities for 2005, we estimate the equations in their structural and reduced form. The results show significantly positive interaction effects of income and real estate prices. Moreover, we can confirm model predictions concerning the majority of exogenous determinants. In particular, expectations about population development seem to be among the most important determinants of price and income disparities between regions in the long term.     

US share prices and real supply and demand shocks

Demand and supply sources of output movement are distinguished and the effects of shocks on stock prices are analysed. The real economy has a more pronounced effect on the stock market than vice versa and the influence from the real economy to the stock market is less important than shocks that are peculiar to the market itself. Supply and demand shocks have a greater impact on stock prices than they do on real economy variables and the sensitivity of real stock prices to supply fluctuations has waned while the sensitivity of real stock prices to demand-driven output fluctuations has increased.     

Structural changes,market growth and productivity gains of the US real estate investment trusts in the 1990s

The 1990s were tumultuous times for the US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry. Significant structural changes occurred during the decade, especially after the 1993 Revenue Reconciliation Act, which tremendously boosted the flow of funds into the system by allowing the participation of institutional investors in REITs. As a result, the industry experienced remarkable asset growth during the decade, with a large number of initial public offerings and substantial increases in market capitalization. Employing the Data Envelopment Analysis-type Malmquist index approach, this paper explores the impact of such environmental changes on productivity growth, efficiency change, and technological progress of REITs. Our results indicate that while efficiency of the REITs significantly increased, their average productivity declined and technology regressed during this decade. It appears that the typical REIT has failed to improve technically, but exerted substantial effort to catch up with the best practice ones relying mainly on aggressive growth strategies. However, our empirical results indicate that they might have overextended themselves as most began to suffer from diseconomies of scale.

汇率变动对进出口业务的影响

人民币汇率制度的改革,标志着我国汇率机制向市场化迈出了重要的一步.那么,人民币新汇制实行后,对我国企业特别是外贸企业究竟有何影响?面对汇率的变数增多、波动幅度增大、不确定性因素增加,企业应采取何策略?本文结合外贸企业的实际,谈了一些个人看法.     

A decomposition of US business sector TFP growth into technical progress and cost efficiency components

A problem with index number methods for computing TFP growth is that during recessions these methods show declines in TFP. This is rather implausible since it implies technological regress. We develop a new method to decompose TFP growth into technical progress and inefficiency arising from the short run fixity of capital and labour, and apply this to new data on the US corporate nonfinancial sector and the noncorporate nonfinancial sector. The analysis sheds light on sources of the productivity growth slowdowns over the period 1960–2014.     

人民币升值对我国进出口企业的影响分析

汇率改革两年多来,我国人民币一直处于升值通道中,人民币升值对我国经济的各个方面带来了不同的影响,对于以国际业务为主的进出口企业更是影响深刻。文章在总结汇率改革历程的基础上,分析了人民币升值对我国进出口企业的影响。     

次新房:告诉你真实的北京房价

5.5%的营业税,1%的个人所得税,逐渐加码的种种税费一度让次新房交易陷入低迷。2007年,这些税费被飙升的房价所淹没。次新房市场再度活跃起来,在价格上也一度直追新建商品房。今年,北京的房市不再疯狂,价廉物美的次新房却在低迷的楼市中有着活跃的表现。     

The measurement of the gains or losses to an enterprise through relative price changes: The terms-of-trade effect and real income

This paper provides a framework for measuring the terms-of-trade effect for an enterprise. This effect is the impact on the organization of changes in input to output prices as well as in the prices of goods and service upon which the income is utilized. The measurement of the effect is outlined with illustrative data and applied to the German Telecom sector, which has suffered particularly badly through adverse relative price changes. The case study of the German Telecom sector is also used to introduce the concept of real income. The framework advocated is argued to be particularly useful, since it allows not only the effects ex post of relative price movements to be evaluated, but also the effects ex ante of particular spending scenarios to be simulated (for example, investment). As such, it should be a useful addition to the ‘toolbag’ of managerial economists.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.     

苏北产业结构变动对经济增长贡献分析

通过测算苏北地区三次产业在经济增长中的贡献及进行偏离-份额分析,揭示了产业结构对苏北地区经济发展的影响,以为产业结构的优化升级提供借鉴并提出苏北地区优化产业结构的政策建议.     

进出口贸易对当前国内通货膨胀的影响及对策

随着国民经济的快速发展,当前我国国内面临着物价上涨所带来的压力。文章针对当前国内通胀的现状,理论分析了进出口贸易对通货膨胀的影响机理,并对其具体的影响途径加以分析,最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

浅析影响房地产价格的三大政策因素

文章在根据近年房地产市场迅速发展的基础上,对房地产价格的影响较大的土地政策、金融政策和财税政策等三大宏观调控政策进行了深入的分析。     

标准化对中国进出口贸易竞争优势的实证研究

随着世界经济和科技的快速发展,标准作为竞争的制高点,谁掌握了标准,谁就掌握了话语权。标准化水平和规模已然成为衡量一国竞争优势的重要因素之一。文章选取1978年至2013年的中国国家标准数据和进出口数据,运用误差修正模型,分析国家标准对中国进出口贸易竞争优势的影响。结果表明:研究变量之间均存在长期稳定的协整关系,国家标准的完善对于进出口贸易竞争优势的提升有很大作用。     

江苏进出口贸易对经济增长的影响分析

通过对江苏省1985-2005年的进出口贸易与GDP之间的关系进行趋势分析、协整分析以及回归分析,本文论证了江苏对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着密切的关系,尤其在相对开放地区,贸易对经济的作用更为明显,并通过聚类分析进一步验证了地区开放程度与经济增长的一致性.     

The responsiveness of self-employment income to tax rate changes

This paper estimates the extent to which self-employment income responds to changes in the net-of-tax share using a panel of tax returns that spans 1987–1996. The results suggest that the elasticity of reported self-employment income to the net-of-tax share is approximately .9, implying a real elasticity (net of any reporting response) of around .4. Estimated elasticities tend to be larger for higher income taxpayers, married males, and females. In addition, the elasticity of self-employment income is considerably larger than the elasticity wage and salary income estimated using the same methodology.     

Decomposing TFP growth in the presence of cost inefficiency,nonconstant returns to scale,and technological progress

A thorough understanding of changes in productivity measures is important to economists and policymakers, because productivity growth is a major source of economic growth. This article explores the relationship between changes in total factor productivity (TFP) growth, defined using an index number approach, and changes in returns to scale, cost efficiency, and technology. Several decompositions are developed, using alternatively production and cost frontiers. The last decomposition developed also allows for multiple outputs.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through W.H. Greene.     

Firms’ fundamentals,macroeconomic variables and quarterly stock prices in the US

This paper modeled the effects of firms’ fundamentals such as total assets and long-term debt and of macroeconomic variables such as unemployment and interest rates on quarterly stock prices of over 3000 US firms in the period 2000–07. The merged CRSP/Compustat database was augmented by macroeconomic variables and comprehensive dynamic models were estimated by maximum likelihood taking into account heterogeneity across firms. Likelihood ratio statistics were developed for sequentially testing hypotheses regarding the adequacy of macroeconomic variables in the models. The main findings were that the estimated coefficients of lagged stock prices in simple dynamic random effects models were in the interval 0.90–0.95. Second, comprehensive dynamic models for stock prices showed that the firms’ earnings per share, total assets, long-term debt, dividends per share, and unemployment and interest rates were significant predictors; there were significant interactions between firms’ long-term debt and interest rates. Finally, implications of the results for corporate policies are discussed.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.     

Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore

Since 1998, Singapore has had an Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system set up with a network of toll gantries to tax vehicles entering designated areas in the city center during peak hours. Using the congestion rate hike with effect from November 1, 2010 as an exogenous shock, we test the effects of the ERP rate hike on retail, office and residential real estate prices. The results show that the November 2010 congestion toll rate increases cause a 19% drop in retail real estate prices within the cordon ERP areas relative to retail real estate prices outside the cordon ERP areas. The results are statistically and economically significant. However, the toll rate hike has no significant impact private office and residential real estate within cordoned ERP areas. The robustness and falsification tests could not reject the negative effects associated with the toll rate hike on retail real estate prices.     

Investment decisions in manufacturing: assessing the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty

We investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on investment decisions. Making use of plant‐level data, we estimate dynamic, discrete‐choice models that allow modeling investment inaction, under different assumptions related to initial conditions and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that increases in real oil price changes and in real oil price uncertainty significantly reduce the likelihood of investment action, in line with the predictions of irreversible investment theory. We also document that investment decisions exhibit strong, pure state dependence and are also significantly affected by initial conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.