股权分置改革中的对价：一个联立方程模型

为解释股权分置改革中对价的决定因素,本文构建了联立方程模型。认为股权分置改革完成后公司的价值会因对价的支付而发生变化。另一方面,流通股股东和非流通股股东会通过预期股改后的公司价值来决定对价。因此,对价和公司价值是相互联系的内生变量。其他外生变量或直接作用于对价,或通过影响公司的价值来影响对价。与现有相关文献中的单方程模型不同,本文模型将影响公司价值的因素合理地引入模型,因而更为系统地解释了对价的决定因素。     

浅析我国近期IPO市场发行抑价之成因及对策分析

IPO抑价是各国在新股发行时所普遍存在的现象。合理的IPO抑价是股票发行人与主承销商所应当给与投资者的合理回报,但是过高的抑价倍数将可能伤害到部分投资者的认购积极性及本次发行的融资效率。在我国,IPO抑价问题较为突出,因此,应当结合我国特殊情况进行针对性的分析,在巩固前期新股发行制度改革的基础上,进一步从估值技术、市场化定价、扩大新股供应量等多方面进行完善。     

股权分置改革中"对价"的法律解读

本文从合同法上对价的一般法理出发,论证了国有股、法人股股东向社会公众股股东支付对价的法律依据,指出了关于对价的若干认识误区;分析了股权分置改革中对价的形式,认为对价包括基础对价、从属对价(特别承诺)两部分,并对股权分置改革中确定对价及相关事宜的法律程序进行了探讨.     

关于股权分置改革中给付对价会计处理的探讨

股权分置不仅关系我国证券市场的制度性建设,也是我国市场经济发展的重大障碍。推进股权分置改革,必须以对价理论为基础,考虑相关各方的利益,制定统一合理的标准。本文介绍了股权流通对价会计处理的不同观点,并提出相关的会计核算方法。     

招标过程中应用招标控制价的思考

招标控制价是施工中工程造价的最高投标限制价格．这可以有效的防止投标人恶意提高工程造价、防止投标人串通。同时．合理、准确的招标控制价格可以让业主获得较为满意的承包商，也是中标人获得必要利润的保障。在新的计价规范中．招标控制价获得了较大的重视．要充分认识到招标控制价的意义和存在的问题．才能够让其发挥应有的作用。文章分析了招标控制价的相关内容，有一定的参考意义。     

对价和信息不对称在股权分置改革中对投票结果的影响

本文总结分析了中国股权分置改革中投票机制的特征,并研究了对价水平、信息不对称等影响投票结果的因素。研究发现,分组投票的机制和流通股股东的理性有效制约了占多数投票权的非流通股股东,并保障了对价方案总体处于双方认为合理的水平。数据显示,流通股的投票率只有33%,而非流通股的投票率将近其三倍;双方的支持率则比较接近,且都处于较高水平。结果表明,对价水平较低的提案能引起流通股较高的投票率;同时伴随着流通股较低的支持率和较高的反对率。此外,流通股股东和非流通股股东之间信息不对称程度的改善能有效增加具有信息劣势的流通股股东投票率,并促使股东双方在对价提案的意见上取得一致,从而得到较高的支持率和较低的反对率。     

政府采购＂价高＂因由浅析

本文对政府采购价格高于市场和自行采购价格,以及协议供货价格高的成因进行了分析。提出了应加强预算编制,做好前期准备;开展市场调研,提高预算价准确度;制定统一标准,避免资料浪费;合理划分标段,遏制价格垄断等相关的对策建议。     

机构投资者异质性与IPO抑价——基于科创板的实证研究

科创板实施注册制后,机构投资者占比增多,但IPO高抑价现象仍然突出。基于2019—2021年科创板公司数据,研究机构投资者异质性对科创板IPO抑价的影响。结论显示：在科创板初期,买方报价的非市场性和二级市场投资热情高涨,机构投资者持股未能缓解科创板IPO抑价,而机构投资者异质性对IPO抑价影响差异较大,除了受IPO定价效率有限和二级市场投资热情影响外,还受其投研能力、定价能力和机构资金用途要求等因素的影响;估值分歧强化了机构投资者持股对科创板IPO抑价的促进作用,但对不同机构投资者持股与IPO抑价之间的调节效应存在差异性,这应该与企业信息披露程度有关。建议从强化监管投资者询价行为、加强上市企业信息披露质量、规范IPO企业估值体系、合理提高机构投资者权益资金配置比重和提升投资者的投研能力等方面推进科创板IPO定价机制更趋向理性、合理。     

殳权分置改革中“对价”的法律解读

本文从合同法上对价的一般法理出发，论证了国有股、法人股股东向社会公众股股东支付对价的法律依据，指出了关于对价的若干认识误区；分析了股权分置改革中对价的形式，认为对价包括基础对价、从属对价（特别承诺）两部分，并对股权分置改革中确定对价及相关事宜的法律程序进行了探讨。     

浅谈招标控制价的合理确定

招标控制价可有效控制投资．防止恶性投标和恶意降价带来的投资风险，同时配合评标办法的合理使用能够可有效防止串标、围标现象的发生。合理确定招标控制价必须要有政策依据，并严格监管执行，设置招标控制价时必须依据市场价格作为参考。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.