The Impact of Generic Advertising on U.S. Household Cheese Purchases: A Censored Autocorrelated Regression Approach

The impacts of generic cheese advertising on U.S. household cheese purchases are examined via the use of a unique household panel. Modest gains in overall at-home cheese purchases from generic cheese advertising appear to be largely the result of strong gains in purchases of natural cheese rather than processed cheese. Results indicate that relatively larger gains in household cheese purchases from generic advertising may be realized by targeting infrequent purchasers to increase purchase frequencies, rather than by targeting households in general to increase their conditional purchase levels.     

A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market

Historical patterns of hog slaughterings are analyzed and related to a hog-corn price ratio series using the transfer function or dynamic regression technique. This technique permits explicit tests of causal relationships and provides a systematic means for specifying distributed lag forms. It is determined that the hog-corn price ratio series leads hog slaughterings and that there is no feedback. The estimated transfer function is analyzed in terms of its implications for the supply of hogs and its implications for the length of the hog cycle.
Nous analyserons les schémas historiques de l'abattage de pores et Us mettrons en correspondence avec une série de rapportsprix du porc —prix du maïs en ulilisant lafonction de transfert ou la technique de regression dynamique. Cette technique permet de tester explicitement les relations causales et foumit un moyen systématique de spécifier les formes de retard distribué. On a determine que Vabattage de pores dépend de la série de rapports prix du pore —prix du maïs mais que I'inverse n'est pas vrai. La fonction de transfert est analysée en fonction de ce qu'elle impliquepour I'approvisionnement en pores et pour la longueur du cycle chez les pores.     

Agricultural Trade among NAFTA Countries: A Case Study of U.S. Meat Exports

The U.S. NAFTA partners are important markets for U.S. meat exports. A source-differentiated almost ideal demand system is used in this study to estimate meat demand in Canada and Mexico. Empirical results suggest that while a U.S. price increase in the Canadian market is expected to increase U.S. sales revenues; it would decrease sales revenues in the Mexican market. Furthermore, an increase in meat expenditures in Canada and Mexico is expected to increase the demand for U.S. meats, while the bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreaks have had a negative effect on U.S. and Canadian beef market shares. Finally, a decomposition of the causes of changes in demand for U.S. meats over time is performed.     

Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog–Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach

The linearity of the U.S. hog–corn cycle has been questioned by Chavas and Holt (1991) . Even so, attempts have not been made to model the potential nonlinear dynamics in the hog–corn cycle by using regime-switching models. One popular alternative is Teräsvirta's smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, which assumes regime switching is endogenous and potentially smooth. In this article, we examine monthly data for the U.S. hog–corn cycle, 1910–2004. A member of the STAR family, the time-varying STAR, is fitted to the data and its properties examined. We find evidence of nonlinearity, regime-dependent behavior, and time-varying parameter change.     

A Political Economic Analysis of U.S. Rice Export Programs to Japan and South Korea: A Game-Theoretic Approach

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture has contributed to the increase in U.S. and world rice trade since 1994. Despite this, the Japanese and Korean rice markets continue to be characterized by high levels of trade intervention. This article attempts to analyze both import markets incorporating econometric estimates and public choice theory in a game-theoretic framework. Various scenarios are analyzed. The results show that the overall Nash equilibrium occurs with a 4% tariff reduction for Japan and Korea under the U.S. Market Development Program, which includes the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program.     

A Political Economic Analysis of U.S. Rice Export Programs to Japan and South Korea: A Game Theoretic Approach

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture (UR) has contributed to the increase in U.S. and world rice trade since 1994. Despite this, the Japanese and Korean rice markets continue to be characterized by high levels of trade intervention. This paper attempts to analyze both import markets incorporating econometric estimates and public choice theory in a game theoretic framework. Various scenarios are analyzed. The results show that the overall Nash equilibrium occurs with a 4% tariff reduction for Japan and Korea under the U.S. Market Development Program, which includes the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program.     

Estimating Investment Rigidity within a Threshold Regression Framework: The Case of U.S. Hog Production Sector

This article addresses the issues of investment/disinvestment asymmetry and a possible existence of a sluggish regime in the demand for a quasi-fixed input in the U.S. hog production sector. Adopting a new threshold estimation procedure, quarterly data from 1970 through 2002 are used to estimate a regime-dependent investment demand equation for a quasi-fixed input, taking sows as a proxy. The results support the existence of three regimes over alternative specifications precluding the sluggish regime, confirming the existence of asset fixity in hog production. The results also highlight the importance of accounting for investment rigidity when estimating hog supply and variable input demands.     

Factors Affecting the Allocation of Trade Promotions in the U.S. Food Distribution System

Although many have proposed theories explaining trade promotion (TP) behavior by manufacturers, lack of data has prevented empirical assessment. We employ survey data to explore the effect of manufacturer and retailer bargaining power on the allocation of TPs in the U.S. food sector. The survey respondents consist of retailers controlling 40% of retail sales in U.S. supermarkets. Retailer bargaining power increases the allocation of funds to off-invoice TPs through higher share of private label and retailer size. Manufacturer bargaining power decreases the allocation of funds to off-invoice TPs by establishing formal policies of negotiation.     

A Microeconometric Analysis of the U.S. Meat Demand

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on U.S. meat demand are estimated using the newly released 1987–88 USDA household food consumption survey data. The USDA survey for the first time included variables reflecting respondents' concerns for health and diet information. A hybrid demand system, which combines a modified generalized addilog system and a level version Rotterdam demand system, is developed as the analytical framework. The micro econometric analysis takes into consideration the consumer selection problem, the missing-price problem, and the aggregation and quality variation problem. The most significant household characteristic and socio-economic variables are region, ethnic background, household size, urbanization, food planner, received health information, female household head employment status and proportion of food expenditure on away-from-home consumption. The results support the speculation of other time-series meat demand studies claiming both health concerns and convenience are the reasons for changes in consumer preference in favor of poultry and fish and in disfavor of red meat.     

Post-War Productivity Patterns in U.S. Agriculture: Influences of Aggregation Procedures in a State-Level Analysis

Annual data for forty-eight states are used to account for changes in the composition of input and output aggregates over space and time, and thereby to obtain new evidence on changes in inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture. The measures change significantly when we use state-specific rather than national prices and when we allow for changes in the composition of the aggregates, especially of labor and capital inputs. We compare our estimates and those reported by Ball et al. ( American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(1999):164–79). The national estimates are similar but substantial differences are found in state-level productivity growth.     

Market and Cost Structure in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry: A Plant-Level Analysis

A resurgence of consolidation in the U.S. meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate. Issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns, and the effects on the agricultural sector (cattle producers) from market power. Here, plant level cost and revenue data for U.S. beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost-based model incorporating cattle- and output-market pricing behavior. The robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets, and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies.     

Imports versus Domestic Production: A Demand System Analysis of the U.S. Red Wine Market

The U.S. wine market experienced rapid growth in all facets—production, consumption, exports, and imports—over the past decade. Red wine imports more than tripled while consumption of domestically produced red wines doubled. This research estimates demand elasticities of U.S. red wine imports from five countries accounting for over 90% of imports—Italy, France, Spain, Australia, and Chile—using the first-difference version of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). These elasticities are compared with those for domestically produced red wine. Results for conditional expenditure elasticities indicate that the U.S. red wine industry gains over imports when U.S. consumers' total expenditures on red wine increase. However, comparing own- and cross-price elasticities reveals an increase in the price of U.S. red wine results in a decline in quantity demanded six times greater than for French and Italian red wines and over 20 times greater than other import countries, thus harming the U.S. red wine industry. Empirical results suggest that U.S. red-wine producers could increase their total revenue by decreasing prices, while Italian and French producers can increase total revenues by increasing them.     

The Role of Risk and Transaction Costs in Contract Design: Evidence from Farmland Lease Contracts in U.S. Agriculture

The objective of this article is to provide new empirical evidence on landlord-tenant choices of share versus cash-rent contracts in U.S. agriculture. The focus is on the contribution of explanatory variables that represent transaction costs, risk-sharing incentives, or both. An empirical model of contract choice is tested against the 1999 Agricultural Economics and Land Ownership Survey (AELOS) and finds mixed evidence for low transaction cost and risk-sharing-incentive motives for landlord-tenant choices of a share versus cash-rent contract. However, the behavior of landlords and tenants is consistent with them being risk averse. Although it is standard to control for the riskiness of the principal's task that is contracted, we find that other attributes of the landlord are an important part of a relatively complex story for U.S. land tenancy contacting. The latter results have generally been ignored in other published landlord-tenant contracting studies.     

浅析美国新能源政策及对我国的影响

应对此轮国际金融危机,美国总统奥巴马推行的新能源政策势必给美国乃至世界能源和经济发展带来深远的影响.以发展新能源为核心,辅之以节能和提高能效,构成了奥巴马能源战略的主要框架.美国新能源政策对我国的影响主要在国际环保方面、国际能源和环保领域标准化方面以及产业领域.中国应及早采取应对策略以防止陷入被动的局面,一是通过加大宣传,寻求国际理解、合作和帮助;二是加快新能源相关标准的制修订;三是积极推动能源技术革新和应用推广.     

Searching for farmland preservation markets: Evidence from the Southeastern U.S.

Farmland preservation is a topic of much discussion in many areas of the United States, but of little action. Only 1.6 million acres of U.S. farmland are permanently protected nationwide, a number not too different from some estimates of annual losses of farmland to development. While a number of studies have estimated the non-market benefits of preserved farmland (cf. Wichelns, D., Kline, J.D., 1993. The impact of parcel characteristics on the cost of development rights. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 22 (October) 150–158), this study is the first to focus on the potential for a market for farmland preservation. Using primary data collected from farmers and citizens specifically to address this issue, we estimate the supply of and demand for farmland for preservation. Separate models are estimated for both privately and publicly run preservation programs. Demand is estimated under private-voluntary, public-voluntary, and public-mandatory scenarios. The results show that both public and private programs can be successful. The market capable of preserving the most acres is a tax-funded, state-run program which could permanently preserve over 200,000 acres in 5 years.     

Supply Chain Management in Cereal Grains: A Case Study from the U.S. Milling Wheat Industry

This paper studies supply chain management in the grain industry by investigating the effects of wheat quality on marketing arrangements between wheat producers, grain handling companies and processors. Wheat quality is defined by many different characteristics, broadly categorized into physical and intrinsic quality attributes. The complexity of wheat quality places limitations on the effectiveness of industry grading schemes in assuring end-use quality. In the U.S., wheat grading factors mostly reflect physical characteristics. Moreover, the U.S. wheat industry does little to regulate the intrinsic quality of new cultivars. Consequently, there is functional quality uncertainty in the U.S. wheat market, encouraging some individual processors to segregate wheat based on their own quality specifications. The costs and benefits of wheat segregation are illustrated with a case study of wheat procurement taken from the U.S. flour industry. Pendleton Flour Mills Inc. operates a stringent testing program to segregate wheat supplies with specific intrinsic quality attributes from the U.S. wheat market. The paper concludes that the inadequacy of the U.S. grading system in guaranteeing functional quality provides some processors with an incentive to manage the supply chain for milling wheat.