Household Portfolio Diversification: A Case for Rank-Dependent Preferences

The proliferation of novel preference theories in financialeconomics is hampered by a lack of non-experimental evidenceand by the theories’ additional complexity which has notbeen shown to be critical in applications. In this article Ipresent arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency.Using the Survey of Consumer Finances data, I document two widespreadpatterns inconsistent with expected utility: (i) many householdssimultaneously invest in well-deversified funds and in poorly-diversifiedportfolios of stocks; and (ii) some households with substantialsavings do not invest anything in equities. I show that portfoliochoice models with rank-dependent preferences, plausibly parameterizedand under fully rational assumptions, are quantitatively consistentwith the observed diversification. These results call for furtherefforts to integrate the models of rank-dependent preferencesin portfolio theory and asset pricing.     

Signalling,Agency Theory and Accounting Policy Choice

Signalling and agency theories appear in the accounting literature to be competing theories. This article demonstrates that they are actually consistent theories, in that one set of sufficient conditions of signalling theory is at least consistent with one set of sufficient conditions of agency theory. Indeed, a considerable overlap exists between the two theories: rational behaviour is common to both; information asymmetry in signalling theory is implied by positive monitoring costs in agency theory; ‘quality' in signalling theory can be defined in terms of agency theory variables; and signalling costs are implicit in some bonding devices of agency theory. Examples are given where both theories’ predictions about lobbying, accounting choices, and voluntary auditor selection are added together.     

Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies

A reduction in inflation can fuel run-ups in housing pricesif people suffer from money illusion. For example, investorswho decide whether to rent or buy a house by simply comparingmonthly rent and mortgage payments do not take into accountthe fact that inflation lowers future real mortgage costs. Wedecompose the price–rent ratio into a rational component—meantto capture the "proxy effect" and risk premia—and an impliedmispricing. We find that inflation and nominalinterest ratesexplain a large share of the time series variation of the mispricing,and that the tilt effect is very unlikely to rationalize thisfinding.     

Liquidity-Based Competition for Order Flow

We present a microstructure model of competition for order flowbetween exchanges based on liquidity provision. We find thatneither a pure limit order market (PLM) nor a hybrid specialist/limitorder market (HM) structure is competition-proof. A PLM canalways be supported in equilibrium as the dominant market (i.e.,where the hybrid limit book is empty), but an HM can also besupported, for some market parameterizations, as the dominantmarket. We also show the possible coexistence of competing markets.Order preferencing—that is, decisions about where ordersare routed when investors are indifferent—is a key determinantof market viability. Welfare comparisons show that competitionbetween exchanges can increase as well as reduce the cost ofliquidity.     

On the Rationality of the Post-Announcement Drift

This paper demonstrates that a post-announcement earnings drift, which is often advanced as an example of market irrationality, can arise even if traders act rationally on their information. Specifically, we show that in the presence of share supply variations which are unrelated to information, there is a positive correlation between the unexpected component of current public signals and future price changes. Such a correlation arises from the fact that while prices reveal private information that cannot be found in public signals, non-information based trading distorts the information content of prices relative to the implications of both private and public information. Under these circumstances, markets may appear semi-strong inefficient and slow to respond to earnings announcements even though information is processed in a timely and efficient manner. Our findings correspond well with previously documented empirical evidence and suggest that the robustness of earnings-based anomalies may be rational outcomes of varying uncertain share supply.     

Pricing and hedging American options: a recursive investigation method

In this article we present a new method for pricing and hedgingAmerican options along with an efficient implementation procedure.The proposed method is efficient and accurate in computing bothoption values and various option hedge parameters. We demonstratethe computational accuracy and efficiency of this numericalprocedure in relation to other competing approaches. We alsosuggest how the method can be applied to the case of any Americanoption for which a closed-form solution exists for the correspondingEuropean options.     

The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level, insiders' sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders' purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. A key feature of our theory is that rational uninformed investors may react more strongly to the absence of insider sales than to their presence (the “dog that did not bark” effect). We test our hypothesis against competing stories, such as insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution.     

Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?

In this paper, we propose a rational learning‐based explanation for the predictability in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors documented in prior literature. In particular, we argue that the serial correlation pattern in analysts' quarterly earnings forecast errors is consistent with an environment in which analysts face parameter uncertainty and learn rationally about the parameters over time. Using simulations and real data, we show that the predictability evidence is more consistent with rational learning than with irrationality (fixation on a seasonal random walk model or some other dogmatic belief).     

Economic growth: A review essay

The last decade has seen an explosion of research on economic growth. Based on a selective review of this literature and the recent book on Economic Growth by Robert Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, we see four main challenges for future research. First, to more tightly link theory and evidence. We think a good way of achieving this would be to follow the methodology common in the business cycle literature of simulating models to compare their predictions to the data. Second, to develop new ways to empirically distinguish between competing theories of endogenous growth. Third, to develop more theories of international productivity differences. Finally, to collect detailed country data bearing on the process of technology diffusion.     

LARCH, Leverage, and Long Memory

We consider the long-memory and leverage properties of a modelfor the conditional variance of an observable stationary sequence X_t, where is the square of an inhomogeneous linear combination of X_s, s < t, withsquare summable weights b_j. This model, which we call linearautoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (LARCH), specializes,when depends only on X_t–1, to theasymmetric ARCH model of Engle (1990, Review of Financial Studies3, 103–106), and, when depends only on finitely many X_s, to a version of the quadratic ARCH modelof Sentana (1995, Review of Economic Studies 62, 639–661),these authors having discussed leverage potential in such models.The model that we consider was suggested by Robinson (1991,Journal of Econometrics 47, 67–84), for use as a possiblylong-memory conditionally heteroskedastic alternative to i.i.d.behavior, and further studied by Giraitis, Robinson and Surgailis(2000, Annals of Applied Probability 10, 1002–1004), whoshowed that integer powers , =" BORDER="0">2 can have long-memory autocorrelations. We establish conditionsunder which the cross-autocovariance function between volatilityand levels, , decays in the manner of moving average weights of long-memory processes on suitable choiceof the b_j. We also establish the leverage property that h_t <0 for 0 < t k, where the value of k (which may be infinite)again depends on the b_j. Conditions for finiteness of thirdand higher moments of X_t are also established.     

Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets

In a financial market where traders are risk averse and shortlived and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on theaverage expectation today of tomorrow’s price. Thus (iteratingthis relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 averageexpectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3price. This will not, in general, equal the date 1 average expectationof the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law ofiterated expectations for average belief can help understandthe role of higher-order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricingmodel.     

Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns

Stock market returns are significantly correlated with inflationand money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variableson aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish,perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time invariant.We estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns, where realizedreturns and their conditional volatility depend on 17 macroseries' announcements. We find six candidates for priced factors:three nominal (CPI, PPI, and a Monetary Aggregate) and threereal (Balance of Trade, Employment Report, and Housing Starts).Popular measures of overall economic activity, such as IndustrialProduction or GNP are not represented.     

Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns

A growing number of researchers argue that time-series patterns in returns are due to investor irrationality and thus can be translated into abnormal profits. Continuation of short-term returns or momentum is one such pattern that has defied any rational explanation and is at odds with market efficiency. This paper shows that profits to momentum strategies can be explained by a set of lagged macroeconomic variables and payoffs to momentum strategies disappear once stock returns are adjusted for their predictability based on these macroeconomic variables. Our results provide a possible role for time-varying expected returns as an explanation for momentum payoffs.     

Consumer rationality/irrationality and financial literacy in the credit card market: Implications from an integrative review

This study analyzes consumer rationality/irrationality and financial literacy in the credit card market. Through literature review, it reveals that consumers, as a whole, make a rational decision when they borrow using a credit card and bear the high interest rate. However, consumers make various mistakes in their individual financial decisions and credit card behavior. Financial literacy, affected by cognitive ability, financial knowledge and financial education can improve consumers’ behavior. This article presents new insights on the implications for consumers, credit card issuers, policymakers and researchers. It has both practical and academic contribution to the credit card market.     

Switching VARMA Term Structure Models

The purpose of this article is to propose a global discrete-timemodeling of the term structure of interest rates which is ableto capture simultaneously the following important features:(i) a historical dynamics of the factor driving term structureshapes involving several lagged values, and switching regimes;(ii) a specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF)with time-varying and regime-dependent risk-premia; (iii) explicitor quasi explicit formulas for zero-coupon bond (ZCB) and interestrate derivative prices. We develop the switching autoregressivenormal (SARN) and the switching vector autoregressive normal(SVARN) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. The factoris considered as a latent variable or an observable variable:in the second case the factor is a vector of several yields.Regime shifts are described by a Markov chain with (historical)nonhomogeneous transition probabilities. An empirical analysisof bivariate VAR(p) and SVARN(p) Factor-Based Term StructureModels, using monthly observations of the U.S. term structureof interest rates, and a goodness-of-fit and expectation hypothesispuzzle comparison with competing models in the literature, showsthe determinant role played by the observable nature of thefactor, lags, and switching regimes in the term structure modeling.     

Narratives in managers’ corporate finance decisions

This article uses the extended case method to explore senior executives’ corporate finance decisions. We quantified firm’s finance practices using a mail survey, and then – to resolve puzzles in managers’ decision processes – conducted face‐to‐face interviews with chief finance officers of large listed firms. The interviews identified six themes as consistent influences on finance decisions: pressures imposed by clienteles; constraints on resources; risk management; heuristics; real options; and sustainability. We conclude that managers are logical and rational in their decisions, but employ a wider range of criteria than assumed in conventional finance theories.     

Strategic Trading, Liquidity, and Information Acquisition

We study endogenous liquidity trading in a market with long-livedasymmetric information. We distinguish between public information,tractable information that can be acquired, and intractableinformation that cannot be acquired. Besides information asymmetryand noise, the adverse-selection spread depends on the diffusionof intractable information and on the interest rate. With endogenousliquidity trading, efficiency is lower than that implied bynoise-trading models. Liquidity traders benefit from the informationreleased through the insider's trades in spite of their monetarylosses. We study factors that affect the insider's informationacquisition decision, including the amount of intractable information,observability, and information acquisition costs.     

企业投资的行为公司财务研究综述

近年来,新兴的行为财务学将管理者与投资者非理性纳入企业投资研究视野,有效弥补了理性人假设下传统理论的不足。本文就这一领域研究进行梳理,着重总结了管理者过度自信、从众心理和投资者情绪对投资决策影响的研究成果,对现有研究的主要贡献、关键问题、政策含义进行了比较系统的阐述,以利于更好地理解企业投资行为、提高投资效率、完善公司治理。     

Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms

In this article, we provide a novel rationale for credit ratings.The rationale that we propose is that credit ratings serve asa coordinating mechanism in situations where multiple equilibriacan obtain. We show that credit ratings provide a "focal point"for firms and their investors, and explore the vital, but previouslyoverlooked implicit contractual relationship between a creditrating agency (CRA) and a firm through its credit watch procedures.Credit ratings can help fix the desired equilibrium and as suchplay an economically meaningful role. Our model provides severalempirical predictions and insights regarding the expected priceimpact of rating changes.     

The Dynamics of Earnings Forecast Management

This paper examines whether firms manage analyst forecasts andthe associated value consequences. We find that earnings forecaststend to grow pessimistic over the forecast horizon and theseforecast changes and their timing are key determinants of whetherfirms generate positive earnings surprises: Late forecasts thatraise (lower) the consensus sharply reduce (raise) the probabilityof positive surprises. This findng is the opposite of that predictedif consensus revisions reflected new information arrival. Investorsseem to be "misled": downward consensus revisions lead to largeabnormal returns following the earnings announcement. Paradoxically,downward forecast management reduces post-announcement shareprice, as the impact of reduced forecasts dominates the gainfrom generating positive surprises.