The Southampton econometric model building unit : Some lessons learned

This paper draws on the author's experience as a research fellow on the Southampton Econometric Model Building Unit in suggesting that there is a case for large-scale, structural, disaggregated econometric models. This is particularly so if, like SEMBU, the aim is to improve both economic theory and economic policy advice rather than simply to forecast actual futures. It is argued that for such an approach to model building to be successful, funding agencies should adopt a long-term view and the Central Statistical Office and other data generating bodies should become much more closely involved with the model-building unit. This latter cooperation could prove mutually beneficial.     

Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

Hybrid Delphi: A methodology to facilitate contribution from experts in professional contexts

This work presents a new methodology based on three well-known qualitative techniques (Focus Group, Nominal Group Technique and Delphi method), with a view to harmonising their potentialities and reducing their limitations, through application in real contexts with experts who are professionals in their respective activities.The main contribution of this methodology is its joint consideration of the needs of the investigators and also of experts who act in professional contexts, in order to improve the effectiveness of preceding techniques in achieving the scientific and social objectives of the study.We have tested this methodological approach in three real cases, with experts holding different responsibilities in different companies and public organisations, and the results secured are highly satisfactory, due to both the quantity and quality of the proposals obtained, and the satisfaction exhibited by the experts taking part, with regard to the research methodology.     

Antimerger policy in the United States: History and lessons

This paper reviews the history of US antimerger policy. This history is divided into three periods: a period in which there was almost no effective antimerger policy at all from 1890 up to 1959, a period of vigorous antimerger policy from 1950 up through 1973, and a period of lax enforcement from 1974 to the present. The paper accounts for these shifts in antimerger policy and discusses their effects. After reviewing the logic and consequences of US antimerger policy, a critique of its permises is offered, particularly as these premises apply to the recent era of lax enforcement. The paper closes with suggestions for an alternative approach to antimerger policy that is consistent with the empirical evidence on why mergers occur and their effects.     

Quantifying the development of agreement among experts in Delphi studies

Delphi studies are often conducted with the aim of achieving consensus or agreement among experts. However, many Delphi studies fail to offer a concise interpretation of the meaning of consensus or agreement. Whereas several statistical operationalizations of agreement exist, hardly any of these indices is used in Delphi studies. In this study, computer simulations were used to study different indices of agreement within different Delphi scenarios. A distinction was made between the indices of consensus (Demoivre index), agreement indices (e.g., Cohen's kappa and generalizations thereof), and association indices (e.g., Cronbach's alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient). Delphi scenarios were created by varying the number of objects, the number of experts, the distribution of object ratings, and the degree to which agreement increased between subsequent rounds. Each scenario consisted of three rounds and was replicated 1000 times. The simulation study showed that in the same data, different indices suggest different levels of agreement, and also, different levels of change of agreement between rounds. In applied Delphi studies, researchers should be more transparent regarding their choice of agreement index and report the value of the chosen index within every round as to provide insight into how the suggested agreement level has developed across rounds.     

Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi

The paper shows how international foresight exercises, through online and offline tools, can make policy-making in developing countries more participatory, fostering transparency and accountability of public decision-making. A five-round Delphi exercise (with 1454 contributions), based on the priorities of the 2005-2007 Latin American and Caribbean Action Plan for the Information Society (eLAC2007), was implemented. This exercise aimed at identifying future priorities that offered input into the inter-governmental negotiation of a 2008-2010 Action Plan (eLAC2010). It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world to date. In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the major lessons learned include (1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions. Two different types of practical implications have been observed. One is the governments' acknowledgement of the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi and the ensuing appreciation of participative policy-making. The other is the demonstration of the role that can be played by the United Nations (and potentially by other inter-governmental agencies) in international participatory policy-making in the digital age, especially if they modernize the way they assist member countries in developing public policy agendas.     

The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.     

Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area

A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate the stabilization properties of alternative monetary policy strategies when the natural rate of interest is low (“new normal”) and the probability of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is non-negligible. Price level targeting is the most effective strategy in terms of stabilizing inflation and output and reducing the duration and frequency of ELB episodes. Temporary price level targeting is also effective in mitigating the ELB constraint, although its stabilization properties are inferior to those of price level targeting. Backward-looking average inflation targeting performs well and is preferable to inflation targeting. The effectiveness of these alternative strategies hinges upon the commitment of a central bank to keeping the policy rate “lower for longer” and is influenced by agents’ expectation formation mechanism.     

Innovation policy in China: nationally promulgated but locally implemented

In China, policies are often announced at the national level but implemented locally. Innovation policies are no exceptions. This article studies China’s 50% R&D tax deduction policy, a key innovation policy promulgated by the central government in 2006. We find that the degree to which the policy was implemented during the period of 2006–2009 varied across the provinces and industries, which in turn had significant impacts on local firms’ innovation output. The findings of the heterogeneity in local implementation of national innovation policies are of important implications for both policy makers and innovation scholars.     

The role of industrial policy in the economic development of Uzbekistan

This paper discusses the role of industrial policy in the economic development of Uzbekistan, which took a gradualist approach in transition and continued to record rapid economic growth from the early 2000s. It stopped depending on cotton monoculture and was able to achieve self-sufficiency in grain. It transformed itself from a net fuel importer to an exporter. The government promoted the manufacturing sector, focusing on the heavy industries, such as the automotive and chemical industries. Industrial restructuring in Uzbekistan has been supported by the industrial policy. The government has taken several industrial policy measures, including tax and financial incentives, state orders, policy selectively welcoming foreign direct investment, import protection and export promotion, and exchange-rate management. This paper provides policy implications for the other developing and transition economies pursuing economic development and considers the appropriate role of the government.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics

Using a simple, tractable model, this paper revisits and expands upon issues relating to optimal monetary policy rules (MPRs) in open economies. The optimality of the rule is explored through various specifications of a central bank loss function as it is the loss function that offers insight into central bank preferences. Many of the issues on this topic have centred on the role of the exchange rate: Is it optimal for the policy instrument to react to the exchange rate? What is the role of the exchange rate in a domestic inflation targeting vs CPI inflation targeting? Does a fear of floating have any bearing on the way optimal MPRs are constructed? While this paper is not empirical, the analysis is relevant for central banks in open and developing economies that face a choice between allowing exchange rates to float (and adopting an inflation targeting regime) and engaging in some degree of exchange rate fixity.     

WTO框架下我国农业补贴政策发展趋势

WTO的《农业协议》规定了三个基本的农业政策,即"黄箱政策"、"绿箱政策"以及"蓝箱政策"。"黄箱政策"明确规定了中国作为发展中国家应该达到的关于粮食补贴的水平,而我国加入WTO11年来,在不断调整的过程中仍然与WTO的规定有着一定差距,这在一定程度上制约了我国农业生产的发展。通过立法和完善政策等方式弥补差距,是促进我国农业生产、保证粮食安全以及实现农民增收的必然选择。     

The economics of New Labour: policy and performance

This paper reviews the foundations of New Labour's economicpolicies and the performance of the economy since 1997. It arguesthat New Labour's policies have evolved from Thatcherism andthat it has largely embraced the tenets of neo-liberalism. NewLabour has rejected most aspects of Keynesianism and its policieshave eschewed the use of active demand management policies.But it has been the high levels of demand—in particularconsumption expenditure—that have driven economic growthin the UK and which have ensured that (as yet) New Labour hasnot faced the problems of dealing with a major economic downturn.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

Distortions in the trade policy for development debate: A re-examination of Friedrich List

This paper re-examines the works of Friedrich List and arguesthat he had a vision of how to promote economic and social developmentfrom the initial state of an advanced agricultural society thathas been distorted in the trade policy for development debate.It shows that his vision is much broader than the orthodox labelof ‘protectionism’ conveys. He thus proposed manymethods of promoting development, cautioned and suggested measuresagainst the drawbacks of protection, and emphasised exports.It is hoped that this paper will contribute to the debate onthe wisdom behind the current push toward trade liberalisation.     

Roadmapping disruptive technical threats and opportunities in complex, technology-based subsystems: The SAILS methodology

A heuristic methodology, based on observations of past patterns of change across several complex, technology-based, subsystem-level industries, is presented for the identification of potentially disruptive technologies. This methodology can be used to both guide the intuition of the senior technical visionary and aid in the formation of the intuition of more junior technologists as they develop the insight required to predict the future of technology. The five components of this methodology are recurring contributors to disruption at the subsystem level of the value chain: standards, architectures, integration, linkages, and substitutions (SAILS). The SAILS methodology is elucidated by applying it, both retrospectively and prospectively, to three complex, technology-based, subsystem-level examples: frequency generation subsystems in wireless communication supersystems; optical multiplexing subsystems in optical communication supersystems; and high voltage electrical subsystems in automotive supersystems.     

Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies

Food price subsidies are a prevalent means by which fiscal authorities may counteract food price volatility in middle-income countries (MIC). We develop a DSGE model for a MIC that captures this key channel of a policy induced price smoothing mechanism that is different to, yet in parallel with, the classic Calvo price stickiness approach, which can have consequential effects for monetary policy. We then use the model to address how the joint fiscal and monetary policy responds to an increase in inflation driven by a food price shock can affect welfare. We show that, in the presence of credit constrained households and households with a significant share of food expenditures, a coordinated reaction of fiscal and monetary policies via subsidized price targeting can improve aggregate welfare. Subsidies smooth prices and consumption, especially for credit constrained households, which can consequently result in an interest rate reaction less intensely with subsidized price targeting compared with headline price targeting.     

Shadow rates as a measure of the monetary policy stance: Some international evidence

This paper examines the usefulness of shadow rates to measure the monetary policy stance by comparing them to the official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the United States, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland) over the period from the early 1990s to December 2021. Shadow rates estimated from a dynamic factor model are shown to suggest a much looser policy stance than either the official policy rates or those implied by the Taylor rules, and generally to provide a more accurate picture of the monetary policy stance during both ZLB and non-ZLB periods, since they reflect the full range of unconventional policy measures used by central banks. Furthermore, generalised impulse response analysis based on three alternative vector autoregression (VAR) models indicates that monetary shocks based on the shadow rates are more informative than those related to the official policy rates or to two- and three-factor shadow rates, especially during the Global Financial Crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, when unconventional measures have been adopted. Finally, unconventional policy shocks seem to have less persistent effects on the economy in countries, which have adopted an inflation-targeting regime.