Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

Information theoretic approach to migration analysis

Information theory is employed to look at certain aspects of migration. It is suggested that the dividedness of a population into “movers” and “stayers” is better assessed by migration entropy. The notion of “migration inequality” is introduced and the principle of minimum entropy suggested as a criterion for fitting migrations models. Canadian census data are utilized for illustration purposes.     

Planning in a communal society: A comparison between physical planning in the kibbutz and in the city

This article presents a model of the development of the physical system of the kibbutz as an example of the physical planning of a communal society. A comparison of the kibbutz model with parallel urban models of physical planning in a capitalistic consumer society reveals great similarity between the two. Thus, although the socioeconomic value system of the kibbutz is different from that of the city, the kibbutz may nevertheless be considered a “micro-city” with regard to the solution of physical planning problems. The primary conclusion seems to be that physical planning is less influenced by social system than many planners claim.     

The computer imperative

“The Computer Imperative” has been defined as the necessity for the administrator to specify his goals, objectives, criteria, standards, rules, etc., in very explicit and operational terms as he seeks to devise a better management system, especially if computers will be used to implement portions of the system. It is essential that educational leaders be able to tell system designers and computer technologists what they want, and to do this they must know at least the rudiments of what is technically possible. Otherwise, the administrator in some sense is at the mercy of the technologist. Studying an administrative system as essentially an information system provides a useful model. To define who originates, processes, uses, or needs information is to describe much of the actual operation of administration. In a manual system, many rules and procedures can be left undefined, and intuition and experience can substitute effectively for logical precision. As computers are programed to assume certain basic transactional functions, the administrator must bear in mind that computers do only what they are told. It is therefore critically important to be able to describe what we want. Much of the “threat” of automation can be attributed to uneasy or uncomfortable recognition of this “imperative”.     

Redistricting reformulated: A maximum interaction/minimum separation objective

Alternative objective functions to the population centroid type commonly employed in computerized political districting algorithms are suggested and discussed. Districtings based on maximum overlap of individuals' “action spaces” or on minimum aggregate length of interpersonal separations better represent the spatio-political notion of “compactness” than do those based on centroid measures. The traditional analogy between the warehouse location problem and the optimal districting problem may thus be an inappropriate one. The proposed reformulated optimal districting problem with a spatial interaction or interpersonal separation objective may be formally stated as a quadratic integer program. The solution to the program is seen, however, to be only one of several possible “optimal” political partitionings. Regardless of the specific compactness measure chosen, separate “mean” and “modal” districtings may exist.     

A new pattern of risk management: The Hyogo Framework for Action and Italian practise

On January 2005, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2025: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002]. This “white paper” seeks to promote “an effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002. p. 1] outlining a strategic and systematic approach to reduce vulnerabilities and risks to hazards.

The current paper discusses each aspect of the Hyogo approach in relation to the Italian experience. Italy represents an interesting case because of its multiple hazard environment, and the fact that it has developed an integrated approach to risk reduction planning. Strengths and weaknesses of the “Italian way” of dealing with risk are identified, and compared with the theoretical processes suggested by the framework. Implementation of selected key actions in Italy has helped identify a series of obstacles to progress, further defining the gap that still exists between theoretical framework and actual practise.

The various activities constituting “risk management” (viz., assessment, prevention, mitigation, monitoring, early warning, preparedness) are here considered in a comprehensive framework wherein each phase is connected to the others. The paper focuses on natural hazards, which are more frequent in Italy (landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, natural soil erosion). The main results include:

• A new process for dealing with risk, using the framework for guidance, is identified. We track the reasons for Italy gradually adopting this process in dealing with her vulnerabilities to natural hazards.

• Those factors that appear to interfere with an integrated approach to risk management are identified as a function of selected experiences.

• Guidelines for analysing vulnerabilities to disaster in a multi-hazard, integrated context are proposed.

Spatial strategies of the “haredi” population in Jerusalem

The purpose of this article is to discuss the strategic behavior—spatial and social—of the “Haredi” (ultra-orthodox) Jewish population. This behavior is associated, in essence, with self-segregation and social isolation accompanied by spatial expansion.

This study deals with these processes in one of the largest concentrations of the ultra-orthodox Jewish community—the northern neighborhoods of Jerusalem. The Jewish ultra-orthodox community is characterized by its special interpretation of Jewish law (halacha) and by its high degree of cohesiveness. It tends to segregate itself from the Israeli population for two main motives. The positive one is the desire to create and maintain “cultural dominance” in a specific area in which the community lives and functions. This includes considerations of scale economies and concentration economies in the provision of the special goods and services which it consumes. The second motive, a negative one, is the desire to avoid some kinds of contacts and interactions with the various groups which do not observe Jewish law according to the orthodox conception. This is done in order to prevent the transfer of secular cultural values of western society into their domain.

The high communal cohesiveness, coupled with high population growth and a strong desire for self-territorial segregation, results in increased pressure on the urban residential space. The fear of social relationship—which may serve as agents for transferring social or cultural values—results in a high degree of intolerance toward the non-religious Israeli population. The contact lines between the two populations have become, therefore, confrontation areas which are characterized by territorial conflicts.

Study of the directions of the territorial expansion suggests what the spatial strategy of the ultraorthodox community is: to gain control of a whole, well-defined urban space in order to maintain cultural dominance in it, while assuring potential directions for expansion in the future. The relationships with the outside, non-religious population is built on a modus operandi principle: i.e. minimal and culturally neutral interactions.

This strategy is carried out through penetration and expansion tactics in a well-known process. These processes present important challenges for planning areas in which ultra-orthodox communities reside.     

A note extending Grosskopf, Hayes, Taylor and Weber, “Anticipating the consequences of school reform: A new use of DEA”

The article cited in the current paper's title shows how to extend Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate future, as well as past and present, performance. This is accomplished by relaxing some of the constraints that reflect the presence of imposed regulations, and then re-computing the evaluations under these alternate conditions. We here extend this approach to account for “long-run” and “short-run” behaviors, and the related bodies of theory that play prominent roles in microeconomics.     

Mathematical analysis applied to school attendance areas

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized mathematical model of pupil assignment within school districts. This model can then be used to examine various policies of student integration. Proposed bussing schemes, school location policies, educational parks, attendance boundaries, etc., can be tested for cost, travel time or other measures of efficiency. Extension to other areas of educational planning is feasible.

Mathematical programming techniques are used to assign resources (say school children) to facilities (say schools) subject to restrictions on facilities (say capacity limits) and resources (say a maximum travel time or a desirable range of school “mixtures”) so that a measure of performance, the “objective function” (say total cost or total time of travel) is optimized. The model is intended to allow examination of a wide range of objective functions and system constraints.     

The position of agriculture in kibbutz economy—an attempt at quantitative projection

The Israeli Kibbutz Movement adopted the ideology of the “Return to Nature” and aspired to especially develop agricultural labour. But in the past decade there has been a process of “internal migration” of workers from agriculture to industrial occupations, which was compared to the “Industrial Revolution”. The ratio of agricultural workdays to other productive branches workdays decline from 62% in 1967 to 46.5% in 1974. Kibbutz' management has many reasons to evaluate its future direction, (investment in land, in education, etc.). We shall try to describe the expected developments, using the Markov chain. We shall also try to analyse the yearly interchanges and transfer from agriculture to industry and vice versa. We shall attempt to show that the process of decreasing agricultural manpower has almost ceased, and it will become stable on a fixed level of about 43%.     

Diagnoses by general practitioners: Accuracy and reliability

Only 10% of the results of consultations in primary care can be assigned to a confirmed diagnosis, while 50% remain “symptoms” and 40% are classified as “named syndromes” (“picture of a disease”). Moreover, less than 20% of the most frequent diagnoses account for more than 80% of the results of consultations. This finding, confirmed empirically during the last fifty years, suggests a power law distribution, with critical consequences for diagnosis and decision making in primary care.Our results prove that primary care has a severe “black swan” element in the vast majority of consultations. Some critical cases involving “avoidable life-threatening dangerous developments” (ALDD) such as myocardial disturbance, brain bleeding, and appendicitis may be masked by those often vague symptoms of health disorders ranked in the 20% most frequent diagnoses. The Braun distribution predicts the frequency of health disorders on a phenomenological level and reveals the “black swan” problem, but is not a tool by itself for arriving at accurate diagnoses. To improve predictions and enhance the reliability of diagnoses we propose standards of documentation and a systematic manner by which the risk facing a patient with an uncertain diagnosis can be evaluated (diagnostic protocols).Accepting a power law distribution in primary care implies the following: (1) primary care should no longer be defined only by “low prevalence” properties, but also by its black-swan-incidence-problem. This includes rethinking malpractice and the requirements of malpractice litigations; (2) at the level of everyday practice, diagnostic protocols are tools to make diagnoses more reliable; (3) at the level of epidemiology, Braun’s system of classification is useful for generating valid information by which predictions of risks can be improved.     

Budget decision making in large public school systems

This paper reviews and discusses results of a study of the budget process in fourteen large city school districts. Topics covered include incremental decision making, the use of “ratios” and “norms” in school budgeting, public participation in budgeting, relevant structural arrangements of local government, and the influence of boards of education on the allocation of resources. Finally, implications for the improvement of school management practices in large school districts are discussed.     

Evaluating shifts in Japan's quality-of-life

This paper presents a Data Envelopment Analysis/Malmquist index (DEA/MI) analysis of the change in quality-of-life (QOL), which is defined as the state of a social system as measured by multiple social-indicators. Applying panel data from Japan's 47 prefectures for the period 1975–2002, we identify significant movement in the country's overall QOL using a “cumulative” frontier shift index. Results suggest that Japan's QOL rose during the so-called “bubble economy years” (second half of the 1980s), and then dropped in the succeeding “lost-decade” (1990s). We also identify those prefectures considered most “responsible” for the shift(s) in QOL. Moreover, the use of both upper- and lower-bound DEAs enabled an evaluation of both “good” and “bad” movements in QOL.     

On the socially optimal size of a life-saving facility

The paper examines the simultaneous problem of finding an optimal size of an intensive care unit and an optimal amount of social investment in preventive medicine. The “demand” for ICU services is assumed stochastic. The approach used is to minimize social costs involved in operating the facility and social loss stemming from deaths of untreated patients.

After deriving the optimality conditions the results are applied to recent British data     

Simulating urban population density with a gravity-based model

Theoretical justifications for the negative exponential urban density function were first proposed by urban economists, although some of their foundations have been criticized. From the geographer's perspective, the gravity-based model reported in this research uses a well-known concept (the “potential”) to offer an alternative explanation. Using numerical analysis techniques, the model simulates various urban density patterns. By varying the model's parameters (the distance friction coefficient β and the city size), the numerical simulations do confirm two important empirical findings: the flattening of density gradients over time owing to transportation improvements, and flatter gradients in larger cities. The observed relationship between the β value and the urban density gradient, as established by this research, opens an avenue for empirical testing.     

Demand for education, and its estimation

Since education produces major externalities and has important merit want characteristics, the estimation of a demand schedule is extremely difficult. Demand estimation for higher education is made somewhat easier because of the great importance of the associated costs and the relevant private substitutes, i.e. private colleges and universities. Therefore higher education is a good candidate for the application of the individual (economic) preference approach, which is based on the assumption that individuals are aware of their need for education about as they are aware of their needs for products provided by the open market.

The estimation of demand for primary and secondary education can rely only to a minor extent on the individual (economic) preference approach. The voter's behavior approach analysis is likely to be more directly applicable. Study of the behavior of voters and the behavior of legislators and members of school boards can shed light on the demand for education. Analytic insight can be gained also by the “voting with one's feet”, and the “calculus of consent” methods.

Finally, benefit-cost analysis can be applied in situations where education gives an extremely weak demand signal. In education we often are less interested in overall benefit-cost estimates than in the benefit-cost positions in which different important interest groups find themselves with regard to education. Such analysis requires the identification of significant interest groups, bargaining strategies, and bargaining patterns, as well as of ways in which education decision makers respond to group pressures.     

Using DEA to improve the management of congestion in Chinese industries (1981–1997)

Congestion is said to be present when increases in inputs result in output reductions. An “iron rice bowl” policy instituted in China shortly after the revolution led by Mao Tze Tung resulted in congestion that ultimately led to bankruptcy in the textile industry, and near bankruptcy in other industries. A major policy shift away from the “iron rice bowl policy” in 1990 led to massive layoffs and increasing social tensions. Were these massive layoffs necessary? Extensions of data envelopment analysis models effected in the present paper identified inefficiencies in the management of congestion. Using textiles and automobiles for illustration, it is shown how elimination of such managerial inefficiencies could have led to output augmentation without reducing employment. Thus, even in the presence of congestion, it proved to be possible to identify additional (managerial) inefficiencies that provided opportunities for improvement. In the heavily congested textile industry, these output augmentations could have been accompanied by reductions in the amounts of capital used (as an added bonus). In any case, we show how to identify and evaluate new types of efficiency—viz., the efficiency with which needed (or desired) inefficiencies are managed.     

The generation of doctorates and their feedback into higher education

The dynamic effects of alternative manpower policies and programs can be “pretested” in a computer based simulation. It is generally recognized that the production of Doctorates depends to a large degree on the Doctorate-holding faculty. Because the doctorate holders are in great demand by the other sectors of the economy, a circular or a “feedback” situation exists. The problem is further complicated by the availability of developed student talent and by various socioeconomic conditions existing at different periods of time within two or three decades prior to the time a study is made.

This paper attempts to develop a conceptual and a mathematical model to study the production of Doctorates, Masters' and Baccalaureate degrees and their feedback into higher education. The model consisting of over 200 non-linear difference equations is programmed for computer simulation and validation against historical data. Currently simulation is used to describe what has happened in the past. Once this phase is accomplished, the model can be used to prescribe what will happen in the future with a fair level of confidence.     

Scaling criterion of questionnaire items

Criterion scaling is a technique for scaling questionnaire item responses so as to maximize their correlation with an external criterion. The correlation between the criterion and the scaled item is equal to the correlation ratio or η coefficient. The results of rescaling the ninth grade questionnaire of the “Equal Educational Opportunity Survey” is presented and compared to the subjective scaling used in the Report. Criterion scaling increased all correlations but the change is not substantial enough to change the interpretation of the Report.