影响美国对华贸易政策的利益集团

在美国的政治经济生活中，存在着数万个性质各异、规模不等、类型不同的利益集团。这些利益集团活跃在美国的政治、经济、社会、文化等各个领域，并对美国社会的这些领域产生了程度不同的影响。让中国人感觉最直接的，是他们在对华贸易决策中所产生的强烈影响。     

战略性贸易政策在印度软件业上的应用

本文介绍印度如何运用战略性贸易政策发展其软件业的经验及启示。     

战略性贸易政策在印度软件业上的应用

本文介绍印度如何运用战略性贸易政策发展其软件业的经验及启示.     

论我国贸易战略的转变——实施战略性贸易政策

近年来我国在国际贸易中与他国摩擦增加,贸易条件不断恶化,人民币升值压力更加剧了我国贸易状况的严峻性。贸易自由化与贸易保护永远共存于不同的时代背景,选择完全贸易自由化的政策措施显然不能完成我国不断推进的工业化中长期发展的目标,实施贸易保护也只有在WTO规则有限的空间下。目前我国在这样的背景中,应当采取结构性调整的策略,不断增强我国产品的竞争力,不仅要巩固出口,而且要扩大产品的国内市场,因此结合了贸易措施与产业措施的战略性贸易政策应当是我国的现实选择。     

印度与东盟贸易合作对我国的影响

印度与东盟贸易合作主要体现在印度——东盟贸易投资区、孟印缅斯泰组织以及湄公河——恒河组织等区域、次区域经济合作机制的构建上。我国作为亚洲最重要的经济体和印度、东盟主要的贸易伙伴也必将受到印度与东盟贸易关系的影响。印度与东盟贸易合作的深化对中国对外贸易既提出挑战,又带来机遇。对此,我国应构建多极区域贸易合作框架,同步加强中印与东盟经贸合作,实现产业结构调整与升级,促进三方贸易良性互动,打造和谐共赢的贸易合作新平台。     

战略性贸易政策在发展中国家的应用分析

战略性贸易政策是贸易保护理论的重要组成部分,最早在发达国家得到应用。本文以战略性贸易政策在印度软件业的应用为例,分析了发展中国家是否适合战略性贸易政策的应用。最后结合我国实际,对今后我国贸易政策选择的方向提出一些建议。     

印度遭遇贸易技术壁垒

印度１９４８年签署关贸总协定，１９９５年１月１日以发展中国家身份转入世贸组织（WTO），是老牌成员国。众所周知，经过世贸组织的几轮谈判，各成员国的进口关税都有了大幅降低，单方面运用配额限制的情况也有所减少。然而，以技术规定、技术标准、卫生要求、动植物检验检疫、环境保护等为特征的非关税壁垒非但没有减少，近年还有增多的趋势。最近一段时间，印度出口产品在国际市场上屡遭技术壁垒的阻击，损失不少，暴露出印度在克服技术壁垒方面的弱点。我国于今年１１月１０日加入世贸组织，研究分析印度的情况，对我国相关政府机构…     

新自由主义贸易政策论及其演进

新自由主义作为一种经济思潮形成于20世纪30年代,在60年代以后得到迅速发展,并开始渗入国际贸易领域,在这一领域有重要影响的新自由主义代表人物包括:巴拉萨(B.Balassa)、巴格瓦蒂(J.N.Bhagwati)、克鲁格(A.O.Krueger)、拉尔(D.Lal)、里特尔(I.Little)斯瑞尼瓦桑(T.N.Srinivasan)等。新自由主义者从研究贸易战略和贸易体制入手,进一步在理论上进行阐释,从而探讨一系列相关的贸易政策问题,逐步形成了其贸易政策理论的主要观点:     

Trade policy & lobbying effectiveness: Theory and evidence for India

How do we understand differences in effectiveness in lobbying for trade policy? To explain lobbying effectiveness, I introduce a new measure into Grossman and Helpman's (1994, American Economic Review 84: 833–850) model of protection-for-sale (PFS). Differences in effectiveness are explained on the basis that some groups make a better case for protection by sending a signal regarding information they possess and that is considered by policy makers before setting trade policies. I begin by estimating a standard PFS model for India using a measure of political organization, a common approach in the empirical literature on PFS. To overcome the need to define such a binary political organization variable, I then use panel data to estimate the new measure of relative lobbying effectiveness. For the most effective sectors, a high output to import ratio translates into higher trade protection; for the least effective sectors, higher output to import ratio translates into lower trade protection. Examining some of the political economy influences on lobbying effectiveness, I find that producing similar goods reduces the positive effect of geographical proximity on effectiveness. Hence, within a sector, firms in close proximity and producing similar goods compete to lobby rather than cooperating or free-riding.     

Interest Groups, Trade Liberalization, and Environmental Standards

In considering a country that imposes a minimum standard on an imported polluting good, which generates negative consumption externalities, we construct a common-agency model, in which a domestic environmental group and a foreign industrial lobby can influence the formation of the minimum standard by providing political contributions to the government. This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization on the political equilibrium environmental standard, the pattern of trade, environmental disutility, and social welfare. We find that trade liberalization tightens the minimum standard, decreases imports of the polluting good, and reduces environmental disutilities. The importing country’s social welfare, however, does not necessarily increase with trade liberalization. The weaker the environmental group’s lobbying efficiency, or the stronger the foreign firm’s lobbying efficiency, the more likely it is that trade liberalization will enhance the importing country’s welfare.     

绿色贸易大潮下拓展对外贸易的宏观对策

绿色贸易已成为国际贸易领域势不可挡的趋势 ,世界各国特别是发达国家广泛采取了与贸易有关的环保措施 ,影响中国对外贸易中的市场准入和竞争力。在此背景下拓展对外贸易 ,从宏观上看可有多种举措 ,突出的三点包括 :国际合作中维护中国的权益、培育绿色经济和绿色消费者、通过出口产品结构绿色化提高国际竞争力。     

Strategic Distortion of the Objectives of Trade Policy

Abstract

By employing a simple three-country model in which there are two exporting countries and one consuming country, this paper analyses the consequences of one-country strategic distortion of the objectives of trade policy. It finds that although an exporting country can benefit from strategic distortion, it would be preferred that the importing country distorts its policy. Furthermore, it is found that preferential trading agreements can emerge endogenously.     

Trade in trash: A political economy approach

We study how the opportunity to trade in trash might influence the equilibrium outcome when the tax on the externality is determined by a political economy process. In our model, individuals have heterogeneous preferences for environmental quality, and there is a wastage of real resources when funds are transferred from the pressure groups to the politicians. When hard-core environmentalists and capitalists are organized interest groups while moderate environmentalists are not organized, we find that the politically chosen tax on the externality is below the optimal Pigouvian level. The opportunity to export waste in unlimited quantities, but at a price, is not the environmentalists’ panacea and does not eliminate political social tension and suboptimal results.     

中国制造业贸易的要素含量:中间产品贸易对测算的影响

本文从理论上指出,传统计算贸易要素含量的方法不适用于加工贸易比重较大的发展中国家,并提出了区分中间产品贸易和最终产品贸易的改进计算方法。通过传统方法计算中国制造业1997年、2002年和2007年贸易的要素含量,发现中国的要素贸易情况符合比较优势理论,并且贸易开放后中国制造业技术水平不断提高,熟练工人密集度显著提高。用区分中间产品贸易和最终产品贸易的方法计算2002年中国制造业贸易的要素含量,发现加工贸易企业与非加工贸易企业生产技术差异很大,忽略中间产品贸易的传统计算方法会造成中国制造业要素净出口的严重高估。     

股票市场上利率政策公告效应实证研究

货币政策信息作为一种对整个市场或者整个行业都产生影响的宏观信息以及同时为市场参与者获知的公共信息,其信息的公布必将对股票市场的价格行为产生影响。把利率政策作为货币政策信息的代表,可以用来测度利率政策公告的即期效应,借鉴这样的思路,我们选用事件研究法方法来研究我国存贷款利率调整对股票市场的公告效应,发现存贷款利率调整宣告会对股票市场的价格和波动产生显著的影响,但利率调整宣告对股票市场的影响并不确定。     

World Bank Trade Adjustment Loans and Export Policy Distortions

Abstract

This work investigates whether World Bank loans fostering trade liberalization are associated with less distorted export policies, by employing some gravity model‐based measures of anti‐export bias, and a Herfindhal index of export revenues concentration. When accounting for non‐random selection in a sample of 88 developing countries over the period 1980‐2000, the receipt of trade adjustment loans seems to have reduced the policy distortion under scrutiny. Such a beneficial influence, however, vanishes when a longer time horizon is considered, casting doubts on the country ownership of waves of liberalizations supported by the Bank.     

金融稳定还是经济增长:中央银行利率政策的门限转换特征

金融稳定对经济增长的影响的非线性特征决定了中央银行货币政策的非线性特征.本文利用世界37个国家1993～2007年的面板数据研究了中央银行利率政策的门限转换特征.研究结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增、长的影响存在显著的门限累进效应,各国中央银行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征,文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值,文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议.