Economic Development, Trade and Wages

We present models that allow the use of unskilled and skilled labor as well as capital and land. Thus agriculture, important in developing countries, can be included as well as two types of labor and a single (or two) type(s) of physical capital. The models are related to the simple 3×2 specific factors structure by means of what is called the linear neighborhood structure, wherein no activity uses more than two factors, and the two types of labor work in separated sectors, using in common a type of physical capital. We discuss how wage rate changes are related when endowments change, when agriculture becomes traded and prices rise, and when unskilled labor becomes educated and joins the ranks of skilled workers.     

Can International Factor Mobility Reduce Wage Inequality in a Dual Economy?*

This paper analyzes the consequences of international factor movements on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a dual‐economy set‐up that includes unemployment and three intersectorally mobile factors of production—unskilled labor, skilled labor, and capital. Thus far, theoretical literature on this subject has adopted the full‐employment framework and hence ignored the problem of unemployment. The analysis in this paper reveals that the results crucially depend on the difference in the intersectoral factor intensities between skilled labor and capital. In particular, it demonstrates the existence of a possibility of deterioration in wage inequality following foreign unskilled‐labor inflow.     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.     

Labor Mobility and East Asian Integration

East Asian economic integration is commonly analyzed in the context of trade in goods and services and capital flows, while labor flows have been very much neglected. Yet labor flows in the region are rapidly growing, given the diversity in levels of economic development, employment opportunities and wage levels, and the existence of labor surplus and deficit countries. Labor migration poses more benefits than costs for both sending and receiving countries, but there are more sensitivities toward labor flows than trade and capital flows. The characteristics and government policies are different for the unskilled and semiskilled foreign workers and for the professionals and highly skilled. Regional cooperation among countries is needed to manage the flows, reduce the incidence of illegal and undocumented workers, reduce the transaction costs of migration, and protect the rights of these workers.     

Anti‐immigration policy in the destination country and skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source economy with or without unemployment

This paper is aimed at theoretically examining the consequence of the anti‐immigration policy adopted in the destination country on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source nation using a couple of two‐sector, specific‐factor general equilibrium models in both the presence and absence of unemployment. Emigration requires incurring some capital cost for professional skill formation on the part of every prospective emigrant that adds to the opportunity cost of emigration. The authority of the destination country determines the number of visas to be granted and hence directly controls the magnitude of skilled emigration from the source country. In the migration equilibrium, the expected skilled wage income abroad is equal to the opportunity cost of emigration. In both the presence and absence of unemployment of unskilled labor, the outcome of the policy on the wage inequality crucially hinges on both the magnitude of the fixed cost of emigration and the technological factors. In the specific‐factor Harris–Todaro model, the degree of imperfection in the unskilled labor market is an additional factor. Finally, some policy recommendations have been made for protecting the interest of the poor unskilled workforce.     

The relationship between factor shares and economic development

The stability of factor shares has long been considered one of the “stylized facts” of macroeconomics. Most factor share studies, however, acknowledge only two factors of production (total capital and total labor), which yields misleading results. I distinguish between reproducible and non-reproducible factors of production. I disentangle physical capital’s share from natural capital’s share and human capital’s share from unskilled labor’s share. Results reveal that non-reproducible factor shares decrease with the stage of economic development, and reproducible factor shares increase with the stage of economic development. This evidence suggests that studies relying on the macroeconomic paradigm of constant factor shares should be revisited. The evidence also supports endogenous growth models that allow technical progress to manifest itself via changes in factor shares.     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality: A general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a static three sector competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which skilled labour is mobile between a traded good sector and a non-traded good sector and unskilled labour is specific to another traded good sector. The capital is perfectly mobile among all these three sectors. We examine the effects of change in different factor endowments and of globalization on skilled–unskilled wage inequality. We find that the effect of a change of a factor endowment on wage inequality depends on the factor intensity ranking between two skilled labours using sectors and on the relative strength of the marginal effects on demand for and supply of non-tradable good. We also find that a decrease in the price of the product produced by skilled (unskilled) labour using traded good sector lowers (raises) the skilled–unskilled wage inequality.     

Where enterprises lead, people follow? Links between migration and FDI in Germany

Standard neoclassical models of economic integration are based on the assumptions that capital and labor are substitutes and that the geography of factor market integration does not matter. Yet, these two assumptions are violated if agglomeration forces among factors from specific source countries are at work. Agglomeration implies that factors behave as complements and that the country of origin matters. This paper analyzes agglomeration between capital and labor empirically. We use state-level German data to answer the question whether and how migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) are linked. Stocks of inward FDI and of immigrants have similar determinants, and the geography of factor market integration matters. There are higher stocks of inward FDI in German states hosting a large foreign population from the same country of origin. This agglomeration effect is confined to higher-income source countries.     

Changes in income distribution and welfare from greater immigration of unskilled workers

This paper considers the consequences of greater immigration of unskilled labor on income distribution and welfare in the receiving country. To address these issues, both the sending and receiving countries are represented in a static general equilibrium model which distinguishes between skilled and unskilled labor and which allows prices to be determined endogenously. In this framework an inflow of unskilled labor is likely to reduce wages of unskilled labor, but whether capital or skilled labor benefits depends upon demand elasticities, elasticities of substitution in production, and differences across countries in the productivity of unskilled labor. National welfare in the receiving country is likely to rise, to the extent that the relative price of importable goods falls, non-residents already in the country receive lower wages, immigrants receive lower wages than those paid to domestic workers, and immigrants cause little increased demand for public services and transfer programs.     

Tuition Fees and the Dual Income Tax: The Optimality of the Nordic Income Tax System Reconsidered

Abstract. We examine the optimal tax and education policy in the case of a dual income tax. Incorporating an educational sector and endogenous capital taxation, we show that the results in Nielsen and Sørensen's study are vulnerable with respect to assumptions on the elasticity of unskilled labor supply. Tax progressivity results residually, whereas educational policy guarantees an optimal tax wedge on, but not necessarily efficiency in, educational investment. The less elastic are the unobservable educational investment and skilled labor (the latter relative to unskilled labor supply), and the more educational policy cares about the skilled labor supply, the more progressive the tax system will be. Education will be subsidized on a net basis if the complementarity effect on the skilled labor supply is strong and important; however, there is also an offsetting substitutability effect of the unskilled labor supply at play.     

Nutritional efficiency wages and child labor

This paper formally analyzes the incidence of child labor by employing an overlapping-generations general-equilibrium model of a small open economy. An individual's ability determines whether or not he/she becomes a skilled worker. The supply side of the economy is composed of two sectors: a modern sector that produces a homogeneous good using skilled labor and physical capital; and an agrarian sector that produces a traditional good using unskilled adult labor, child labor, and land. An increase in foreign direct investment and improvements in education reduce the incidence of child labor. Emigration of skilled (unskilled) workers reduces (raises) the supply of child labor, while trade sanctions reduce the demand for child labor. Child wage subsidies have an ambiguous effect on the incidence of child labor while education subsidies are effective in reducing the incidence of child labor. Simulation analysis is used to investigate the welfare effects of the aforementioned policies.     

外包与要素价格:从特定要素模型角度的分析

本文通过建立两种商品多种投入要素的特定要素小国模型来分析外包对要素价格的影响。如果将土地和熟练劳动视为特定要素,本文发现通过生产率效应和要素供给效应的传导机制,外包有利于特定要素所有者,不利于非熟练劳动,扩大了熟练劳动与非熟练劳动的相对工资,该结论与外包中间品的要素密集度、均衡状态时是否为完全专业化外包和资本的国际流动无关。即使非熟练劳动通过培训可以向熟练劳动升级,但并不一定会缓和本国的相对工资差距。     

Extensive and Intensive Margins of Exports and Labor Heterogeneity

This paper investigates how changes in skilled and unskilled labor supply affect different margins of exports. Using bilateral trade data in manufacturing sectors of 34 countries from 1995 to 2010, we find that most of the impact of skilled labor on exports goes through the intensive margin, whereas most of the effect of unskilled labor works through the extensive margin. These outcomes result from the impact of labor skill composition on the productivity cut‐off of exporters. We also find that the impact of skilled and unskilled labor on trade margins depends on the income level of countries and on the type of products. The results indicate that the effect of skilled labor is greater for low‐income countries and differentiated products, while that of unskilled labor is greater for high‐income countries and homogeneous products.     

China's Growth Slowdown: Labor Supply,Productivity, or What?

There has been much discussion of the sources of China’s growth slowdown but little formal econometric analysis of this question. Chen and Groenewold (2019) show that the slowdown was primarily supply-driven, but they stopped short of identifying specific supply variables. This paper extends their analysis and distinguishes several potential supply components: labor supply, productivity, and capital accumulation. Our results confirm their main conclusion that supply dominates the explanation of the slowdown. A model with two supply factors (labor supply and productivity) reveals that both components contribute to the slowdown, although productivity makes the greater contribution. However, when capital stock is added to the model, the decline in the capital accumulation rate becomes an important factor in the growth slowdown, to some extent replacing the effects of both labor supply and productivity.     

Factor‐biased public infrastructure and wage inequality

This paper analyzes how factor‐biased public infrastructure affects the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. In the basic model with a full employment economy, we find that when the weighted dependence of skilled labor and capital in the urban skilled sector on public infrastructure is large enough relatively to that of unskilled labor and capital in the urban unskilled sector, the wage inequality will be expanded. We also discuss labor‐biased and capital‐biased public infrastructure in our framework, and find that the relative dependences of relevant labor or capital on public infrastructure are important determinants of wage inequality. In the extended models, we analyze separately the issue of wage inequality in the economy with unemployment and the totally open capital market, and find the results of the basic model almost still hold.     

Trade,Wages, and Specific Factors*

In this paper, we use a multisector specific‐factors model with sector‐specific capital and two mobile factors, skilled and unskilled labor, to examine the effects of trade, technology, and factor endowments on the skill premium in US manufacturing industries. Based on this model and data for the US manufacturing sector from 1958–96, we calculate changes in the skill premium and then carry out a decomposition to identify the changes caused by product price changes (trade), technological progress, labor, and capital endowment changes. The decomposition reveals that trade effects, working through product price changes, caused the skill premium to increase moderately. Changes in capital endowments (new investments) had a positive effect on the skill premium, with the strongest impact during the 1980s, while the effect of technological change on the skill premium varied over time. Finally, changes in relative labor endowments had a negative effect on the skill premium.     

Unemployment,Wage Inequality and International Factor Movement in the Presence of Agricultural Dualism

This paper investigates how the international factor movements affect the unemployment and skilled–unskilled wage inequality with the existence of a modern agricultural sector. Our research has the new feature that we not only consider that the rural labor migrates to the urban sector but also to the modern agricultural sector. The main conclusions are that the unskilled labor outflow certainly decreases the wage inequality and unemployment rate and the influences that skilled labor movement and capital inflow have on wage inequality and unemployment rate are dependent on the factor intensity between the urban and modern agricultural sectors.     

Costly Factor Reallocation and Reduced Productivity Effects in International Trade

Most models of international trade assume extremes of factor mobility between productive uses. From perfectly mobile factors in the Heckscher–Ohlin model, to fixed capital and mobile labor in the Ricardo–Viner–Jones model, factors are assumed to move costlessly or not at all. In reality, factors are neither perfectly mobile nor fixed. This paper considers costs of reallocating factors between industries, deriving a measure of adjustment costs due to factor specificity in a two‐period model of a firm's input allocation decision. The degrees of specificity for labor and capital are then estimated based on data for 15 industries in 16 countries covering eight years. Estimating a system of nonlinear first‐order conditions using a three‐stage least squares technique, I find that recently reallocated factors are indeed less productive. Labor is 14% less productive in the period after reallocation, while capital productivity falls by 43%. Thereafter, capital, unlike labor, moves quickly toward full productivity.     

Increasing dispersion of skills and rising earnings inequality

In recent decades many countries have simultaneously liberalized their trading regimes and expanded their education systems. The theoretical effect of these regime shifts on the wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers is ambiguous. On the one hand, openness to trade causes demand shifts in the labor market which may widen or narrow the differential. This result depends on whether the unskilled wage is depressed, as in the case of importing countries, or raised, as in the case of exporting countries. On the other hand, an increased supply of more educated workers reduces their wages and narrows the skill wage gap. In this study of the labor market of Hong Kong, we document that recent changes in response to the trade liberalization of Mainland China and expanded access to education have increased the earnings differential between skilled and unskilled workers. Using detailed census data, we argue that the main reason for this outcome is the widened dispersion of skills across the earnings distribution, resulting from demand and supply shifts in the labor market caused by trade openness and expanded access to higher education.     

Tariff Elimination and the Wage Gap in an Industrial Specific Factors Model*

A specific factors model of 458 US manufacturing industries simulates the effects of eliminating manufacturing tariffs on unskilled and skilled wages. The model assumes constant elasticity substitution, industry‐specific capital inputs, and mobile unskilled and skilled labor. Tariff elimination slightly lowers both unskilled and skilled wages, and increases the skilled wage gap. Industry outputs and capital returns absorb the negative impact of the falling tariffs with losses concentrated in more highly protected industries and most industries enjoying small positive outcomes.