视点

宏观·政策稳健转从紧国家货币政策转向日前闭幕的中央经济工作会议透露出重要信息:已实施十年之久的稳健的货币政策将调整为从紧的货币政策。按照中央经济工作会议部署,货币政策将由稳健直接转为从紧,从紧的货币政策由此全新登场,并将在2008年的宏观调控中发挥重要作用。中央经济工作会议指出,2008年将进一步发挥货币政策在宏观调控中     

实施从紧的货币政策之探讨

从2007年经济持续增长运行中,中央提出了2008年要实施从紧的货币政策。本文论证了造成从紧货币政策的几个主要因素,阐述了国家为保持2008年的宏观经济持续运行,通过对货币环境的适当控制,提高货币政策目标及货币政策工具的有效性等措施,从而创造条件达到落实从紧的货币政策目标。     

从紧货币政策下中小企业融资对策

从紧的货币政策意味着金融信贷的紧缩,对企业贷款将从紧放贷,导致中小企业融资更加困难。本文探讨了从紧货币政策对中小企业融资的影响,提出了中小企业应采取的对策,以期帮助中小企业在从紧货币政策下获得进一步发展。     

从紧货币政策下中小企业融资对策

从紧的货币政策意味着金融信贷的紧缩,对企业贷款将从紧放贷,导致中小企业融资更加困难。本文探讨了从紧货币政策对中小企业融资的影响,提出了中小企业应采取的对策,以期帮助中小企业在从紧货币政策下获得进一步发展。     

实施从紧的货币政策之探讨

从2007年经济持续增长运行中.中央提出了2008年要实施从紧的货币政策.本文论证了造成“从紧”货币政策的几个主要因素,阐述了国家为保持2008年的宏观经济持续运行,通过对货币环境的适当控制,提高货币政策目标及货币政策工具的有效性等措施,从而创造条件达到落实从紧的货币政策目标.     

运用从紧的货币政策，加大宏观调控力度

2008年要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策。已实施了十年之久的稳健的货币政策将"功成身退",取而代之的是从紧的货币政策。汇率、利率和准备金率三率齐动,彰显出央行保持宏观经济稳定、防止经济走向过热的决心。     

易宪容：货币从紧应以“利率主导”

国务院发展研究中心研究员易宪容日前指出，2007年随着整个金融市场的发展和繁荣，中国出现了三个大问题——股市泡沫、房地产泡沫、全面通货膨胀。中国政府2008年的政策就是从紧的货币政策。对从紧的货币政策来说，今年最重要的是信贷规模的管制。人民币汇率升值来说，看现在这个苗头，是会很快，但是我认为不能超过5％到6％，不会超过这样的速度，如果超过这个速度对我们经济的影响是相当大的。易宪容表示，如果能够以利率作为整个从紧货币政策的主导，2008年的从紧货币政策一定会起到很好的效果。但仅仅使用货币信贷规模的管制和人民币汇率的升值，可能效果不会很好。     

关于从紧货币政策的几个问题

实施从紧的货币政策,是保持我国经济稳定发展的内在要求,也是对外经济发展的要求。从紧的货币政策目标,应将M2增长率保持在16％左右的水平,贷款增长率保持在14．5％左右。同时,实行从紧的货币政策,在政策工具上需要数量手段（存款准备金率等）和价格手段（利率）的有效配合。     

中国十年来首次提出从紧的货币政策

2008年要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策。"货币政策从‘稳健’转为‘从紧’,发出强烈的政策信号。"相比前几年,当前中国经济形势已有较大不同,这一政策的出台也是基于政府对当前物价连续上涨、货币信贷增长过快等宏观形势的     

提高利率是较好的政策选择——访著名经济学家林毅夫

今年我国宏观调控政策的一个显著变化，就是货币政策从过去10年来一直奉行的稳健政策改为从紧政策。那么，如何落实从紧的货币政策？如何选择政策工具？这是目前我国经济界普遍关心的问题，为此，本刊记者专程采访了我国著名经济学家林毅夫先生。     

信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导中的现状

根据货币政策传导理论,银行信贷渠道和资产负债表渠道是货币政策信贷传导的主要方式。从2003年开始,我国中央银行连续采取紧缩性的货币政策。文中介绍了此轮货币政策的信贷传导现状,指出现阶段我国货币政策的信贷传导仍然存在梗阻,应加以疏通。     

Bank demand for central bank liquidity and its impact on interbank markets

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We develop a model of monetary policy implementation in which banks bid for liquidity provided by the central bank in fixed rate auctions,...     

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy

Abstract.  The paper deals with the asymmetric effects on output of tight and easy monetary policy: the output reduction following a negative monetary policy shock appears bigger than the expansion induced by similar sized positive shock. The paper first reviews historical evidence of asymmetry, focusing on the United States, Japan and Italy. This is followed by a review of the econometric literature on monetary policy asymmetry and consideration of the theoretical reasons that can explain this asymmetry.     

Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: New Evidence from a World Panel of Countries

The event of the recent financial crisis raises the question of whether policy makers could have done more or something different to prevent the build‐up of financial imbalances. This paper contributes to the field of regulatory impact by tackling the debate on whether central banks should ‘lean against the wind’, while in case the response is positive, how macroprudential policies should be combined with monetary policy. Using an augmented Taylor rule and a sample of 127 global economies, the results provide evidence on the importance of macroprudential issues for the implementation of an effective monetary policy. They also document that the type of adopted macroprudential instrument has a substantial effect on such effectiveness, with this policy mix being less ‘integrated’ when the monetary rule aims at primarily safeguarding inflation stability. The results survive robustness checks under alternative assets.     

金融危机背景下美联储的非常规货币政策操作

面对金融危机，关联储不仅非常规地使用传统货币政策工具，而且还采取大量激进的非常规措施，通过购买各种证券向市场注入流动性以及运用信息沟通引导市场预期降低长期借贷成本的方式缓解金融市场紧缩局面。非常规货币政策是应对非常时期的非常措施，随着经济的复苏，各国经济刺激政策如何寻找安全退出路径是这一时期全球央行的主要任务。     

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

The emergence of macroprudential policies, implemented by central banks as a means of promoting financial stability, has raised many questions regarding the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. Given the limited number of studies available, this paper sheds light on this issue by providing a critical and systematic review of the literature. To this end, we divide the theoretical and empirical studies into two broad channels of borrowers – consisting of the cost of funds and the collateral constraint – and financial intermediaries – consisting of risk‐taking and payment systems. In spite of the existing ambiguity surrounding coordination issues between monetary and macroprudential policies, it is argued that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Hence, macroprudential policies are needed to supplement monetary. In addition, we find that the role of the exchange rate is critical in the implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies in emerging markets, while volatile capital flows pose another challenge. In so far as how the arrangement of monetary and macroprudential policies varies across countries, key theoretical and policy implications have been identified.     

论煤炭企业集团应对当前经济形势的融资策略

央行自4月21日起上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点,为2011年来第四次上调,也是去年紧缩周期以来第10次上调,这将使大型金融机构存款准备金率达到20.5%历史高位。在偏紧的货币政策下,正在扩张中的H大型煤炭企业集团积极研究多种金融融资工具特点,为偏紧的货币政策开出适宜企业集团发展的融资良方。     

Monetary policy and asset prices in an open economy

This paper examines whether central banks should respond to asset price fluctuations in a two-country sticky price model. We compare a monetary policy rule that targets both domestic asset prices and foreign asset prices with several alternative monetary policy rules. This paper shows that this policy rule can produce preferable outcomes because the domestic central bank incorporates important information that both domestic and foreign asset prices possess into its monetary policy. Our model suggests that central banks should consider both domestic and foreign asset prices in a two country framework with asset price fluctuations.     

Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and bank performance in a multiple-instrument environment, particularly highlighting the conditioning role of bank business models. Employing a unique dataset of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2007 to 2019, we display that banks react to monetary policy changes, either when the central bank increases policy rates or injects money into the economy through open market operations, by decreasing overall returns and increasing financial instability. Additionally, we document that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves benefits bank outcomes, contrasting to open market operations, albeit the central bank uses both of these policy instruments to alter money supply in the economy. Our key analysis of interest reveals that business models considerably matter in the effects of monetary policy on bank performance. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that banks’ business models that yield more non-interest income or diversify more into different income sources may mitigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank performance. This finding holds across all interest- and quantitative-based monetary policy indicators and across all the functions of risk-taking behavior, earning-profit capacity, and financial stability. Furthermore, while plotting the marginal effects of monetary policy, we realize that they are insignificant for banks whose business models heavily rely on non-traditional segments.     

通货膨胀目标制:加拿大银行的政策实践与启示

在加拿大的通货膨胀目标制政策框架下,中央银行定期向公众宣布政策通货膨胀目标,然后根据通货膨胀预测值与政策目标之间的差距来确定调控方向;在实践中,加拿大银行通过使用利率操作区间和公告操作,从而很好地实现了对市场流动性及短期利率目标的调控,进而影响到市场主体的经济决策,并最终成功实现了实际通货膨胀率稳定地波动在中央银行的目标范围内。基于此,我国有必要借鉴加拿大银行的做法,建立一个更为简单透明的政策操作框架,以保证货币政策操作的效果。