Die Globalisierung — eine umkehrbare Geschichte?

A global labour division with a corresponding exchange in trade has always existed, ultimately for reasons of pragmatism; the volume and structure of this labour division did particularly depend on technical and economic conditions. Today, low haulage makes the division of labour exceedingly intense, supported by the unprecedented reduction of trade barriers in the Post-War period. The latter phenomenon had always been controversial, as impacts of global trade on welfare were, and still are, unequally distributed. The winners seek to secure their advantages, while the losers try to defend themselves against competitors. There are two lessons to be learned from historic experience: On the one hand, that a limitation of global labour division is altogether unfavourable; first, that the costs resulting from an occasional limitation are only acceptable under the premise that the time gained is used for structural reforms that allow the return to the global division of labour. A permanent exit from global economy, however, has (thus far) never turned out to be successful.     

Grundsteuerreform in Deutschland: eine unendliche Geschichte?

For many years property tax in its current form has been exhibiting increasing problems. There are three reform models currently being discussed that differ in their respective tax bases using either property values or areas, or both. They create different individual tax burdens and amounts of tax revenue in each state compared to the current property tax amount which alters local tax capacity within the fiscal equalisation system among the 16 states. The calculations on regional local tax revenue prove that the value-based models which promote greater equity are being neglected by the financially strong states. This is because they would be forced to provide higher transfer payments to the financially weaker states.     

Argumente gegen die Reform des Stabilitätsgesetzes wenig überzeugend — eine Replik

In their reply, Dullien and van Treeck criticise the argument of Michaelis, Elstner and Schmidt that the German Stability and Growth law (StabG) from the 1960s must not be reformed. They claim that Michaelis et al. neglect that the concept of sustainability has changed over the past 50 years and that nowadays issues such as social and ecological sustainability should be included. Moreover, the claim by Michaelis et al. that the StabG provides important tools for business cycle management is hardly convincing, given that these tools have not been used since the 1970s and stimulus packages have been passed on other legal grounds. / In their response Michaelis et al. stress that economic policy has to consider equally aspects of economic, social and ecological sustainability. The StabG, however, is a completely inappropriate basis for attempts to address aspects of social and ecological sustainability. The main use of the StabG consists in the possibility to quickly implement fiscal measures that could mitigate the consequences of severe economic downturns. Proposals of Dullien and van Treeck that various dimensions of sustainability are controllable by a predetermined set of instruments neglect the complexity of the social market economy.     

Was bringt eine geänderte Ertragskompetenz bei der Einkommensteuer? — eine Replik

The Reply

The reform proposal would complicate the rules for sharing income tax revenues. The measures proposed are not compatible with the rules set out in the German Federal Constitution and the relevant decisions of the Constitutional Court. The states would lose tax revenues, whereas the federal government would gain them. As to individual states, the financially strong ones would be the losers, despite the fact that economic strength and financial strength should be significantly related.

The Response

Future fiscal equalisation in Germany requires not only a new equalisation formula but also a fairer, more equal, broader and more transparent tax base for states and local governments. If necessary, changes to the Federal Constitution should be undertaken to achieve a more equal vertical assignment of tax powers. The actual reform discussion should not be a confrontation between rich and poor states but should lead to a financial constitution by 2020 which can be unanimously approved by all of the German states.     

Der Transmissionsmechanismus der Geldpolitik — eine Ergänzung

In March 2015 Wirtschaftsdienst published the article “The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy — Where is the Boost to Lending?” by Daniel Hagemann and Monika Wohlmann. Manuel Rupprecht asserts in his response that their argumentation concentrates too heavily on credit supply. He points to the importance of credit demand and the declining significance of bank loans. Hagemann and Wohlmann respond by providing detailed information on the sources of company financing and state that more than half of the financing for companies in the eurozone originated from banks.     

Abbau der kalten Progression seit 2016 — eine Zwischenbilanz

Wirtschaftsdienst - Seit 2016 findet ein Abbau der kalten Progression statt. Der Autor zeigt beispielhaft, inwiefern die Steuerzahler:innen durch diese Reform in den vergangenen fünf Jahren...     

Zehn Jahre Makroökonomischer Dialog — eine Zwischenbilanz

Zusammenfassung  Der Makro?konomische Dialog (MED) wurde vor zehn Jahren — nahezu zeitgleich mit dem Beginn der dritten Stufe der Europ?ischen Wirtschafts- und W?hrungsunion (EWWU) — konzipiert und umgesetzt. Wie sind die Erfahrungen mit diesem Instrument der wirtschaftspolitischen Koordinierung auf europ?ischer Ebene? Wie kann der MED noch wirksamer zu einer spannungsfreien Wachstums- und Besch?ftigungsdynamik im gesamten Euroraum beitragen? Dr. Volker Hallwirth, 54, und Dr. Willi Koll, 61, sind Mitarbeiter im Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Sie geben hier ihre pers?nliche Meinung wieder. W. Koll war seit Beginn im Herbst 1999 bis Herbst 2006 Vorsitzender des Makro?konomischen Dialogs auf technischer Ebene und Berichterstatter im Makro?konomischen Dialog auf politischer Ebene; V. Hallwirth war jeweils an den inhaltlichen Vorbereitungen beteiligt.     

Verteilung energiewendebedingter Netzkosten — allein eine Frage der Fairness?

In Germany there is an intensive debate regarding the allocation of the network costs caused by the German energy transition (“Energiewende”). The discussion is mainly driven by the growing divergence of network tariffs among the federal states. This article analyses the actual reform of the cost allocation for transmission system operators and suggests a possible general change in the system of cost allocation for the calculation of network fees. Furthermore, it shows additional possibilities to increase the cost orientation within the tariffs for electricity distribution.     

Grundfreibetrag und Einkommensteuertarif — eine Trennung ist möglich

The basic allowance of the german income tax system is designed to ensure that the minimum subsistence level is not taxed. According to German income tax law, the basic allowance is not deducted from income. Instead, the tax schedule has a zero-rated bracket. Thus, the income tax schedule has a dual function: it determines the tax burden and exempts the subsistence level from taxation. This paper proposes extracting the zero-rated bracket from the tax schedule and deducting a basic allowance directly from income instead. Such a direct deduction of the basic allowance from income would make the constitutionally required exemption of the subsistence level more transparent. At the same time, an independent basic allowance could be increased more easily, without having to change the entire tax schedule.     

Der neue bundesstaatliche Finanzausgleich — eine Reform und viel Reformaufschub

The reorganisation of financial relations between the federal government and the federal states by the German parliament changes the federal system in Germany at crucial points. With the agreed new financial equalisation system a restructuring of the federal solidarity occurs. The federal government gains a lot of responsibility; the federal states receive more revenue, but become more dependent. More income is redistributed, and in different ways, which could counteract the convergence among states. In addition, important reform fields were left unprocessed. The overall result is a political compromise, which is to be criticised objectively.     

Aggregierte Risiken für Offshore-Wind- Investitionen — eine Simulation

One of the main obstacles to the realisation of offshore wind investments are the potential risks. For a German offshore windpark, these risks are quantified here, and an overall value at risk has been computed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results confirm the major contribution of construction cost overruns, wind availability on the variance of the overall risk position and the importance of quantitative risk management in project financing.     

Mindestlohn: Warnung vor massiven Arbeitsplatzverlusten wenig fundiert — eine Replik

This article by Jürgen Kromphardt argues against the view that the introduction of a legal minimum wage of €8.50 per hour for all jobs will result in a massive reduction of jobs. He finds the theoretical foundation of this forecast very shaky, because the assumptions of this model are not fulfilled in the real world. It is thus unsurprising that empirical analyses do not corroborate it. Groll and Kooths respond that neither demand-side market power in the labour market nor supply-side price-setting capacity in the goods market are sufficient reasons to justify the introduction of minimum wages. They reiterate the major arguments both in the narrow environment of a static market model and in a more enriched framework that puts human action in the centre of economic analysis. They also show that topping up low incomes within the German ALG II transfer system can hardly be considered a wage subsidy.     

Lohnimpulse und Wirtschaftswachstum — eine Simulationsanalyse für die Eurozone

Since the global financial and economic crisis, the question has arisen whether a policy of wage restraint could lead the European crisis countries back onto a more stable growth path. Using simulation calculations for varying wage setting strategies in Europe through 2030, the advantages and disadvantages of such a scenario can be discussed. One of the main findings is that temporary wage restraint in the economically weak countries only works as a means to regaining competitiveness if accompanied by other economic policies at the European level. These policies include higher wage growth in the economically stronger countries, transfer payments to foster investments and the acceptance of higher inflation rates in the eurozone.     

Fracking in Deutschland — eine Option für die Zukunft!

Extraction of shale gas in Germany (fracking) is better left as an option for the future. Today, owners of deposits in many other countries have uncertain property rights and extract too quickly. German deposits may appreciate in value if left in the ground. They also better contribute to national energy security there than if extracted and depleted. Waiting also allows Germany to learn from the mistakes of others and to take this new information and the improvements in extraction technology into account when deciding about extraction in the future. Such decisions should not be left to the resource extraction industries. Their objectives are likely to differ from the objective of maximising the rent from the nation’s shale gas.     

Der Markt für „gute Arbeit“ — eine empirische Analyse

The interests of consumers and employees can differ fundamentally. While it is in consumers’ interest to buy at the lowest prices, employees depend on good working conditions. A customer survey from an information economics point of view reveals that the tension between the two can be explained by the incapability of consumers to identify “good labour”. Consumer policy could work to counteract this phenomenon and enforce more transparency in the market.