Demand forecasting for new media services with consideration of competitive relationships using the competitive Bass model and the theory of the niche

New broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have been totally revolutionizing the broadcasting industry; thus, the prediction of the degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach towards demand forecasting for new services with no data and with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The underlying model of the proposed approach is the competitive Bass model, which is the most widely used competitive diffusion model. The competition coefficients of the model are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche, which originates from ecology, has often been used as a framework for examining competition patterns in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, viz., niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficients are then obtained by adjusting the values of competitive superiority to be incorporated in the model based on the relationship between competition and imitation effects. A case of Korean digital broadcasting services is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.     

A Theory of Broadcast Media Concentration and Commercial Advertising

We analyze a model in which the interaction of broadcasters, advertisers, and consumers determines the level of nonadvertising broadcasting produced and consumed. Our main finding is that an increase in concentration in broadcast media industries may lead to a decrease in the total amount of nonadvertising broadcasting. The strength of this inverse relationship depends, in part, on the behavioral response of the consumers to changes in advertising intensities. We also present a numerical general equilibrium solution to our model and demonstrate a positive relationship between consumer welfare and the number of firms in the broadcast industry.     

略论传统农业向现代农业的转变及面临的矛盾

发展现代农业,必须从根本上对传统农业进行彻底的改造.我国传统农业在向现代农业的转变过程中面临着一系列的矛盾和问题.农业是典型的弱质产业,要实现这种转变,不能仅仅依靠市场的作用来实现,政府的导向和介入显得尤为迫切和重要.     

在浮梁周边地区的城市化和商品化条件下景德镇陶瓷特色产业集群研究

城市化和商品化促进了生产要素的全面流动,推动了市场化进程,有利于商人队伍的扩大,为陶瓷等手工业提供了劳动力队伍和消费市场。浮梁地区山多田少,粮食普遍不足。唐宋时期景德镇陶瓷业利润远高于浮梁农业的收益,从事瓷业既是当时农民不得不做的事情,也是他们乐意做的事情。在景德镇陶瓷特色产业集群形成和发展过程申,景德镇与浮梁及邻近的几个县建立了有效的物资交流网,有力地保证了集群所需人力、物资的供应。     

Royalties,entry, and spectrum allocation to the broadcasting industry

We characterize the socially optimal trajectory of spectrum royalty and firm entry in a deregulated over‐the‐air broadcasting industry. A social planner maximizes consumers' lifetime utility by setting royalties for the use of publicly owned spectrum. As the number of broadcasters adjusts to profits over time, the quality of service improves through greater variety but also deteriorates through intensified interferences. Contrary to observed consolidation and return to concentration in past deregulatory reforms, we find that optimal royalty control that accounts for these quality effects steers the socially optimal trajectory of royalties and firms to a more competitive steady state.     

Testing Okun’s law with Swiss industry data

Okun’s law postulates a stable relationship between quarterly output growth and changes in (un)employment. This proposition has so far been tested with macroeconomic data at the highest level of aggregation. The article goes beyond that in extending the analysis to industry data from Switzerland, applying a method suggested by the International Monetary Fund. Another focus is on whether expansions in production have become more ‘jobless’ over the most recent business cycle compared to earlier ones. This does not seem to be the case in Switzerland, except in the construction industry.     

我国农村基础设施投入区域差异分析

本文分别从农村基础设施的投资总量、投资主体、投资去向及其投资需求四个方面对我国农村基础设施投入区域差异进行实证分析,研究表明:第一,农村基础设施发展水平和农村经济发展水平呈现显著的正相关关系,因而我国从东部往西部农村基础设施发展水平总体也呈现逐渐递减的状态。第二,各地区农村基础设施投入主体构成存在明显差异。东部经济发达地区非农户投资比重远远大于中西部不发达地区的非农户投资比重。第三,中西部地区在第一产业的投资比重远远大于东部地区,但第二产业的投资比重远远小于东部地区。第四,各地区农民对基础设施的投入需求存在明显差异。东部地区需求最强烈的主要是社会性基础设施,中西部地区需求最强烈的主要是经济型基础设施。     

Modeling governance and water pollution using the institutional ecological economic framework

This paper investigates the effect of governance on levels of water pollution for all industrial activities as well as by some specific industry category in a sample of OECD economies. Using an institutional ecological economic conceptual framework, the effects of several measures of governance are empirically examined. Our findings reveal that the rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption, government effectiveness and voice and accountability are negatively and statistically significantly correlated with water pollution across all industrial activities as well as specific industry groups. We conclude that governance matters for mitigating industrial water pollution. This novel paper adds to the existing literature on industrial water pollution by developing a modeling approach that empirically examines questions that have so far not been explored in institutional ecological economics and demonstrates the importance of the framework for addressing real life ecological problems that are common across the world. Policy implications are drawn.     

新一轮工业革命正在叩门,中国怎么办?

新一轮工业革命已经悄悄降临,这一次新工业革命不仅仅是由于新技术发展导致一些新兴产业发展,而是由于新的技术革命导致制造业生产方式与制造模式发生巨大的变化。面对这样的变化,美国等发达国家掀起的所谓"再工业化"实质是要抓住新一轮制造业的大变革,占据新一轮全球产业分工体系中的优势地位,恢复美国经济的国际竞争力。我国目前制造业产值虽然超过了美国,但就我国制造业总体水平来说,一是技术含量还不够高;二是处在制造业价值链的中低端环节;更重要的是我国的制造业生产方式与制造模式还停留在工业化初、中期的状态,与新一轮工业革命相去甚远。能不能抓住新的工业革命这一历史机遇,甚至在这个过程中实现赶超,是我国制造业转型升级并快速提高、迎头赶上的关键,如果抓不住很可能就要继续落后。在这样的情况下,我们应该认真研究应对的思路与策略,应该试着找出一条制造业提升、变革、发展的新型工业化道路,在新型产业体系构建、战略性先进制造业选择发展、先进制造业与现代服务业匹配模式设计、知识产权保护、高端人才造就、服务创新推动、市场环境打造等方面大胆探索,深化改革,积极响应与投入即将到来的"第三次工业革命"。     

基于消费者感知的卷烟产品质量影响因素的研究

烟草行业作为一种特殊的行业,自从1982年实行烟草专卖制度以来,为我国的经济发展做出了巨大贡献,成长为国民经济发展的支柱产业。卷烟产品质量的高低将直接决定着中国烟草企业在面对国内外激烈竞争中的成败,而目前关于卷烟产品质量的研究更多地局限于化学层面,而不是从消费者的角度出发。因此,本文将以湖北中烟工业公司卷烟产品为例,运用实证研究方法,从消费者感知的角度出发,研究影响卷烟产品质量的众多因素,为企业改进卷烟产品质量提供决策。     

Ownership and Management in Holding Companies and the Future of the Russian Textile Industry

Outside ownership has been long praised by mainstream transition economics for providing the context for effective enterprise restructuring. On the basis of two case studies in the Ivanovo-based textile industry, this article analyses the impact of this new corporate structure on management and production. An account of the developments in the 1990s argues for the rationality of survival strategies by inside owners and reveals how new economic agents played a primary role in the collapse of the industry. The analysis of holding company strategies indicates that little has changed so far in market strategies and organisation of production. Reliance on traditional Soviet practices prevents restructuring and undermines co-operation between managers and new owners. Findings, corroborated by existing case study research, indicate that the way to successful restructuring lies in overcoming Soviet-type personnel and production management. This is unlikely to happen without thorough technological change at enterprise level and organisational change in holding companies' command structure. Experience of restructuring reveals how building trust between managers and owners represents an essential precondition for pursuing these goals.     

European and North American Sports Differences(?)

Past comparative work argues that the differences between European and North American sports dramatically outweigh any similarities. This paper explores the arguments that fans, sports organizations, and team objectives are different in the two regions and offers a set of questions that must be answered if, indeed, the opposite is not true. In addition, insights gained from the overriding similarities are offered concerning competitive balance, life after the Bosman decision, broadcasting, and league structure in Europe. European sports are far from any tragic end, but directors of sports organizations have seen the handwriting on the wall, economically speaking. They are about to live in lively times.     

Positive versus negative incentives for loan repayment in microfinance: A game theory approach

In most of the methodologies used so far by microfinance institutions, negative incentives are predominant, which can contrast with these institutions’ social mission. This paper investigates whether the microfinance industry could benefit from using more positive incentives. The main results of our game model are twofold. First, (positive or negative) incentives increase “on‐time” repayments. Second, the client is more likely to repay her loan with the encouragement of a bonus scheme rather than under the pressure of a sanction, regardless of the amount. This paper therefore argues for the increased use of positive incentives in the industry.     

FDI技术溢出效应的决定因素研究

本文总结了产生FDI溢出效应的主要渠道以及影响FDI溢出效应的主要因素,FDI溢出效应的结果依赖很多因素,东道国特征与FDI特征都会影响FDI溢出效应的存在性、大小以及符号。特别是本地企业的吸收能力、地区／行业的特征以及东道国的制度以及FDI自身的一些特征都是FDI溢出效应是否存在、是否显著的重要影响因素。由于影响因素众多、影响方式复杂,目前还很难就FDI溢出效应对本地企业的影响得出一个一致、可信的结论。     

SATELLITE TELEVISION AND THE DEMAND FOR FOOTBALL: A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME?

A recent development in the UK television industry has been the emergence of satellite coverage of sporting events. This paper examines the relationship between broadcasting and football, culminating in the 1992 joint BBC and BSkyB contract to televise the English Premier League. A demand function is estimated which exteds the familiar model of attendance to incorporate television together with quadratic functions. We find that, although live transmission reduces attendance, the net financial consequences are positive for Premier League teams. Moreover, significant estimators are found for the quadratic functions of pricel earnings, distance, seasonal trend and length of Premier League status.     

Impact of the GST and Wine Tax Reform on Australia’s Wine Industry: A CGE Analysis

This study analyses the impacts of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced on 1 July 2000, and the associated wine tax reform, on both the premium and non‐premium segments of the grape and wine industry using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. Through input cost reductions, the grape and wine industry is projected to gain from the GST tax package. Thus the industry can still gain even though wine consumption is taxed a little more heavily after than before the introduction of the GST. This is particularly so for the export‐oriented premium wine segment. A switch from the current ad valorem to a revenue‐neutral volumetric tax on wine under the GST is shown also to favour the premium segment of the industry, but at the expense of the non‐premium segment.     

产业链视角下的西部地区特色农业发展研究——以陕西苹果为例

西部地区农业资源丰富,特色农业是西部特色经济发展的必由之路,但西部农业资源优势远没有形成经济优势。陕西苹果是西部特色农业之一,尽管具有一些显著优势,但在品种结构、采后处理、产业化水平、资金投入、标准化生产以及销售方式方面仍存在着不足。针对这些问题的对策建议主要包括:优化产业布局和品种结构;强化产后处理能力;加大科技、资金和管理投入;加大产品营销力度,塑造品牌形象,进一步提高陕西苹果的产业化经营水平。     

双创环境下发展科技服务业助推经济转型升级问题研究

科技服务业是现代服务业中的新兴产业,在促进经济转型升级中发挥着重要作用。双创环境下,科技服务业主要通过动力机制、利益机制和组织协调机制助推经济转型升级。以江苏省科技服务业为例,分析了当前科技服务业发展现状和存在的问题,探究了双创环境下江苏省发展科技服务业助推经济转型升级的路径,以期为科技服务业发展和经济转型升级提供参考。     

How Far Should Mr Keating Go?

Australia's current account deficit is large by historical standards and so is the boom in private investment spending. The net effect is a level of thrift that is not unusually low. A major uncertainty facing policymakers is how far unemployment can be reduced without causing an inflationary spiral. If unemployment can be reduced without igniting inflation, then there is a case for loosening monetary policy.