对制度变迁理论的新发展及假设前提的评述

从诺斯概括的制度变迁一般理论出发,评述这一理论最新的发展,即引入制度变迁的主观博弈过程和进化博弈过程.同时分析各种思路的假设前提,强调在解释现实的制度变迁时,应该注意假设与现实的一致性,指出与中国现实相对接近的制度变迁理论是强制性制度变迁理论.     

基于博弈论的信贷制度变迁分析

本文基于博弈理论,以中国工商银行的信贷制度变迁为案例,分析中国信贷制度的变迁。中国的信贷制度经历了从计划信贷到市场信贷变迁的过程,它是以国家主导的强制性制度变迁为主线展开的。尽管新制度由国家设计和供给,但是信贷制度变迁是通过多种力量互动博弈的方式完成的。在国家主导的制度变迁过程中,信贷制度属于金融制度、银行制度的"次级制度",商业银行通过细化制度、组织变革、技术进步等途径,在与国家、企业的博弈过程中持续地推进了信贷制度创新。实践证明,这种制度变迁模式在中国的体制内是有效率的。     

西方经济学的制度变迁理论述评

西方经济学关于制度变迁的理论主要包括新制度经济学派诺斯的制度变迁理论、演进观的制度变迁理论和进化博弈观的制度变迁理论三个框架.其中,新制度经济学是指以科斯、诺斯为代表的新制度学派.     

典型经济事件对会计准则制度变迁的经验分析——以安然事件为例

典型经济事件的发生,会带来财务会计概念框架的更替或具体会计准则的变更,文章选取了较具代表性的安然事件这一典型经济事件,对会计准则制度变迁的演化博弈进行经验分析,认为典型性经济事件是引发制度变迁的突变因素。     

从分业到混业有多远?——利益博弈下的金融制度调整

分业与混业是金融制度选择的重要内容。根据新制度经济学的观点,制度是内生的,制度的选择与变迁实际是各主要利益主体博弈的结果。只要各利益主体在制度变迁中获得实际利益的满足,这一制度才具有稳定性与持续性。本文用博弈论的方法分析美国金融制度和中国金融制度的演进过程,为把握未来金融制度的发展方向提供一种新的思路。     

非正规金融演进与农村金融制度变迁的机制分析

20世纪80年代中后期以来,我国农村广泛存在非正规金融现象,对非正规金融的演进以及农村金融制度变迁的内在机制进行分析具有重要意义.文章从探寻农村正规金融的制度缺失与非正规金融具有的经济效应、制度效应入手,运用制度变迁理论深入分析了非正规金融的演进与农村金融制度变迁的内在机制,并指出非正规金融的发展与农村金融制度变迁应是市场诱致性制度变迁与政府强制性制度变迁的结合.     

经济转型与融资制度变迁动力分析

中国的融资制度经过了20多年的改革,由原来的不涉及既有主体利益的增量改革、边际改革逐步向涉及既有集团利益的存量改革深化,融资制度的改革已经进入利益调整阶段。这一阶段,各主体在融资制度变迁问题上,动力并不完全一致：国家作为融资制度变迁的主导者,改革动力的大小取决于政府对融资制度改革的收益与风险的判断;地方政府、其他微观主体和各级代理人的动力存在不足现象。多种力量博弈所达到的均衡状态影响着融资制度变迁。     

中国反洗钱制度变迁的路径依赖分析

在中国的反洗钱制度框架演进的过程中,自始至终选择着供给主导型强制性制度变迁的路径依赖。诺斯的制度变迁理论指出:强制性制度变迁方式必须谨慎使用,且不可长期使用。因此,要进一步提高打击洗钱犯罪制度的有效性,必须跳出强制性制度变迁的路径依赖,培育需求诱导型反洗钱制度变迁方式,探索出供给主导型和需求诱导型相结合的制度变迁方式。在新制度变迁方式尚未确立前,我们应在对反洗钱义务主体进行法规约束前提下,建立其利益约束机制,以此提高反洗钱义务主体的积极性和主动性。同时,应进一步扩大反洗钱义务主体的范围,减少"搭便车"行为的发生。     

金融制度创新的演化博弈分析

从分业经营走向混业经营是一项重要的金融制度创新。基于供求的主流经济学分析难以面对金融创新的复杂性、自发性、创新过程的不可逆性以及环境的选择性,因而不能有效地对金融创新做出合理的解释。运用演化博弈理论对金融业从分业经营到混业经营的金融制度创新过程研究发现,金融制度创新是金融体系内部各方参与者动态博弈的过程,是经济体系自生自发的过程,具有环境选择性。     

西方经济学的制度变迁理论述评

西方经济学关于制度变迁的理论主要包括新制度经济学派诺斯的制度变迁理论、演进观的制度变迁理论和进化博弈观的制度变迁理论三个框架。其中,新制度经济学是指以科斯、诺斯为代表的新制度学派。一、以诺斯为代表的新制度经济学的制度变迁理论诺斯是新制度经济学制度变迁理论的集大成者,其创立的制度变迁理论最能代表整个新制度经济学在制度变迁方面的理论成就。诺思认为:“制度是人所发明设计的对人们相互交往的约束。它们由正式的规则、非正式的约束(行为规范、惯例和自我限定的行为准则)和实施机制(enforcement-characteristics)所构成。简单来说,它们是由人们在相互打交道中的强制约束的结构所组成。制度所强加的约束目标和个人在制度安排中选择的同一性的程度取决于其强制的有效性。这种强制的有效性的实施一方面来自甲方(自我限定的行为准则),一方面来自乙方(报复),以及(或者)来自第三方(即由国家的社会制裁和强制实施)。制度是通过交易费用和转形(生产)费用(与所用技术一起)来影响经济绩效的。”在1993年获诺贝尔经济学奖之后,诺思在北京大学中国经济研究中心成立大会上的讲演中又进一步说:“制度是社会博弈的规则,是人所创造的用以限制...     

基于强互惠理论的会计准则变迁研究

强互惠理论将人类的精神活动因素引入制度变迁研究中,扩展了人们将制度作为外部环境的接受者,制度变迁是自发演化过程或理性设计过程简单＂二分法＂的认识。会计准则作为一种制度安排,能够运用制度的理论框架予以分析。本文在强互惠理论博弈解说的基础上,对1992~2006年中国会计准则变迁过程进行分析。研究结论显示：中国会计准则变迁是自发演化与理性设计的统一,中国会计准则变迁过程中体现出自愿性和强制性双重强互惠特征,而且自愿性强互惠是主要特征,政府型强互惠滞后。     

From rationality to hyperreality: paradigm poker

This paper, following McGoun's (1997) seminal article comparing the economy of financial securities to a hyperreal poker game, argues that finance and accounting researchers should take the “linguistic turn” that has rejuvenated theory and research in many, if not most, of the social science and humanities in recent decades. In general terms, this means following Ludwig Wittgenstein's language game paradigm rather than Karl Popper's scientific deductive hypothesis testing methodology. The paper illustrates this by drawing on some of Jean Baudrillard's' ideas, particularly his concept of hyperreality and his phases of the image theoretic.The paper presents a poststructuralist genealogical analysis of the radical ruptures and reformulation of the meaning attributed to the accounting sign of earnings over the feudal, counterfeit, production, and simulation eras. It concludes that, as with many other signs in contemporary society, the earnings sign no longer has any relationship with, nor does it any longer refer to, any real or intrinsic profit but instead floats ungrounded in today's financial economy.The paper recommends that researchers in finance and accounting adopt paradigms from literary theory, semiotics, linguistics, and semiology rather than continue to rely on economics-based theory, which has lost its power for explaining and predicting happenings in today's financial economy of self-referencing models and images.     

复杂性适应系统视角下的金融生态平衡与调节

本文在探讨金融生态的复杂性适应特征基础上,运用复杂性适应系统理论从微观和宏观两个层面分析金融生态平衡的内涵及其调节机理。分析表明,金融生态平衡意味着单个金融组织利润最大化目标的实现、金融体系内部合理的结构秩序以及金融系统与环境的协调和适应,金融生态平衡的调节应主要是以市场原则为基础和方向的金融生态自调节,其调节机制是价格机制,且适度的监管是必要的。     

金融机构反洗钱工作内在动力不足问题研究

在反洗钱实际工作中,金融机构反洗钱工作内在动力不足问题表现突出,本文运用成本收益分析法,从私人和社会两个层面探讨反洗钱的外部影响,并通过对监管机构和金融机构反洗钱行为进行博弈分析,认为消极开展反洗钱工作是金融机构的最优策略选择,从而探究出金融机构反洗钱内在动力不足的深层次原因,提出相应的对策建议。     

治理结构与市场结构：一个金融创新的制度视角

金融创新是商业银行通过实现规模经济和范围经济,获得超额利润的必由之路,但是只有在健全的法人治理结构(总行与分支机构间信息对称、监督有效)下,商业银行才有创新的动力;即使商业银行存在创新的内部激励,在当前商业银行寡头市场条件下的“资金上存”机制会削弱其创新积极性;商业银行金融创新必须立足于改革内外激励机制,实现可持续发展。     

Components of CEO Remuneration and Non‐GAAP Disclosure

This paper provides evidence of the effect of chief executive officer (CEO) remuneration on decisions to disclose voluntary non‐generally accepted accounting principles (non‐GAAP) financial measures. We investigate profit announcements that focus on the most emphasised part, which includes mandatorily identified information (results for the announcement to the market) and the least emphasised part, which incorporates other sections. By reading the profit announcements and manually collecting non‐GAAP financial measures (NGFM) data, there is no reliance on keyword search strings and as such we uncover the pervasiveness of the use of NGFM. Results show that the base component of CEOs’ remuneration plays a significant role in reporting NGFM in the most emphasised part of the profit announcement. Conversely, all three (base, short‐term and long‐term incentives) components of the remuneration package have a significant relationship with the reporting decisions in the least emphasised part of the statement. We find that, depending on the regulatory imposition and the emphasis assigned to the section of the profit announcement, the motive for voluntary disclosure of NGFM can be explained as altruistic (informative) or opportunistic (misleading). We contribute evidence on ‘pay–action’ rather than ‘pay–performance’ by incorporating all three components simultaneously into the framework to maintain the assumption of correspondence and internal consistency among those components.     

How We Invest

In this chapter from their new book, Climate of Hope: How Cities, Businesses, and Citizens Can Save the Planet, the founder of Bloomberg LP and former mayor of New York City collaborates with the former executive director of the Sierra Club in showing how the pursuit of profit by companies and their investors is playing an important role in the battle against global warming. Climate change is shown as posing a series of discrete, manageable challenges—such as accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy—that have spurred a search for solutions that promise to make our society healthier and stronger. National governments, the authors argue, are not the best places to create or carry out these solutions. Rather, it is the mayors, CEOs, entrepreneurs, activists, concerned citizens, and other local actors who have the strongest incentives as well as the power and means to win the battle against climate change—and in ways that have already begun to generate economic growth and improve public health. State governors and mayors of cities around the U.S., in red and blue states alike, have been responsible for much of this progress. Cities and states have negotiated contracts with local utilities to provide greater amounts of clean energy, and used combinations of public and private capital to fund rapid transit, waste‐water treatment, and other infrastructure programs. But an equally important if not larger role is now being played by business. Companies large and small, with the backing of a growing number of environmentally conscious but resolutely profit‐seeking investors, are finding ways to reduce waste and strengthen worker protection and morale throughout supply chains that are providing increasingly climatefriendly products and services. The authors' bottom line, then, is that preventing climate change will require more than goodwill and government regulation. It will take the profit motive, a force that that many environmentalists have long viewed with suspicion. While acknowledging the past efforts of socially responsible investment funds that have shown a willingness to sacrifice returns, the authors conclude that the enlightened self‐interest of value‐seeking investors may well prove more effective than the “beneficence” of social investors and philanthropists in producing investments of sufficient scale and practical efficacy to meet the challenges of global warming.     

票据融资发展拐点机理及影响研究:以山东为例

本文以山东省为例,运用博弈论等方法对票据融资拐点机理及其对货币政策传导机制的影响进行了研究,阐述票据融资与货币政策传导机制、经济发展的具体关系,进一步论证了当前我国票据融资的"泡沫化"和功能的"变异化",并基于中央银行角度,从功能再造、机制创新及市场拓展等三个方面就畅通票据融资在货币政策传导中的作用提出了相关政策建议。     

金融监管理念：以金融创新和金融监管的辨证关系为视角

本文介绍了金融创新理论和金融监管的理论基础。在金融创新背景下,金融机构开始从分业经营向混业经营发展,金融监管出现了六大趋势。金融创新与金融监管的关系是动态的博弈过程,金融发展一方面需要金融创新作为动力,另一方面又需要加强金融监管以维护金融安全。金融创新是金融业发展的内在动力,金融监管是金融有序化的外在保障。金融创新与金融监管就这样互相作用,共同促进金融改革的深化。     

The marketing cube

Today's business professional should consider three dimensions, or success drivers, when devising marketing programmes: profitability, profit potential and likelihood for retention — the ’marketing cube‘. Simply said, the margins on customers who fall into the ’right customer‘ group, as defined by this framework, are too great to ignore. Profit, widely confused with lifetime value, is a fact based on previous behaviour — and many financial service organisations are now calculating revenue minus costs for each customer to determine profit. Profit potential is an estimate of one individual customer's contribution to a company's bottom line. It emerges from a model. The modelled profit less actual is referred to as ’profit opportunity‘.Retention is the third component of the framework, and here there are ways to predict the loss of revenue from customers and implement preventive measures, before this loss even happens. A matrix of these three dimensions can help any financial service marketer build a next most logical product model and business rules that govern a successful customer relationship management (CRM) programme.