基于新浪微博的金融谣言识别方法探索

互联网的普及加快了信息传播的速度,扩大了传播范围。然而,不法分子利用网络空间肆意散布各类谣言,尤其是金融领域。目前世界各国纷纷着眼于网络谣言的治理,制定相关的法律法规。国内金融谣言案件不乏有之,国家正积极采取措施,严厉打击扰乱金融秩序的犯罪行为。根据《中国社会舆情年度报告(2013)》统计,2012年所有舆情事件的首发主题中,32.1%来源于微博。新浪微博作为国内最大的开放式社交媒体,具有数据分享及时、数据量大,形式多元化等优势,可为金融行业舆情检测提供通道。基于上述基础,笔者进行了基于新浪微博的金融谣言识别方法的探索。     

12万年薪加税“谣言”揭示了中国个税的真相

<正>如果仔细琢磨这种谣言传播的土壤,不就是因为多年来税改变成了"加税"的代名词,"谣言"屡屡成为遥遥领先的预言吗?这几天,一则国务院印发的《关于激发重点群体活力带动城乡居民增收的实施意见》的文件在网络上被热议。因为这个文件提出要进一步发挥税收调节收入分配的作用,健全包括个人所得税在内的税收体系,逐步建立综合和分类相结合的个人所得     

抗击『非典』的经济学思考

一是信息披露机制.如果居民能及时地掌握各种社会和市场的信息,就能进行准确的判断和预测,所有的社会谣言就会没有传播的市场.在现代的网络化社会,国家要从全国整体出发,建立信息披露机制,及时向社会发布正确的市场信息和公用信息,使居民掌握的信息尽可能地充分化.     

校园打印店竞争情报研究

校园微店的产生是符合校园这个小社会的,校园打印店是校园微店的一个重要组成部分。高校内学生消费人数多需求大,打印店是适合市场需求的。随着社会经济的发展这个小社会里竞争的态势越来越严重,一方面校园打印店为了同校园其他打印店可以竞争成功,要不断提高自身的生存能力,他们的设备需要不断更新来满足学生日益多样化、专业化、速度话的需求;其二,校园打印店对其竞争对手的情况掌握力度不够,缺少竞争情报来源,这是当下校园打印店为其竞争能力的提高和经济效益的增长需要重点考虑的方面。要解决这两方面的内容,主要应依靠的就是竞争情报,竞争情报是其强有力的支持。     

高职学生弱势群体的现状与分析

高职弱势学生群体主要有经济弱势群体、心理弱势群体、人际交往弱势群体。高校弱势学生群体关系和谐稳定的校园构建、关系社会经济持续发展和社会的全面进步。要以人为本,不断对学生加强引导,建立健全心理咨询体系,加强学校文化建设来扶助他们。     

互联网金融背景下校园网络借贷的困局及其解决路径

最近几年,因借贷门槛低、行业暴利、监管缺失等多个因素,校园网络借贷飞速发展.校园网络借贷迅速发展的同时也引发一系列校园特殊风险事件,如“裸条借贷”风波、“网贷赌球欠债60万跳楼身亡”事件等.要解决此问题,建议有关部门应考虑大学生群体的特殊性,出台校园网络借贷监管法规,整顿校园网络借贷行业;各大高校在做好学校安保工作之余,应当加大学生互联网金融方面的教育,提倡理性消费;校园网络借贷行业应加强行业自律.     

特殊群体大学生的特点及心理教育的建议

特殊群体大学生的心理状况是现今社会和教育领域的一个不容忽视的问题。他们有其特殊的心理特点和应对机制,满足其全面健康发展的需要,是高等教育的良好运行和发展的需要,也是创建和谐校园氛围,促进社会稳定团结的需要。本文分析了特殊群体学生的心理状况,并针对性地提出教育对策。希望此文可以引起政府、社会及教育部门的重视,使特殊群体大学生获得更多的帮扶。     

浅析以公司社会责任为导向的公司治理模式

公司要实现长期发展,仅考虑对股东负责是远远不够的,还必须考虑对其他各方利益相关群体负责,承担起相应的社会责任.本文阐述了公司社会责任的内涵,并从公司社会责任的视角出发,提出了公司治理模式重塑的建议,对完善目前的治理模式具有重要意义.     

浅析以公司社会责任为导向的公司治理模式

公司要实现长期发展，仅考虑对股东负责是远远不够的，还必须考虑对其他各方利益相关群体负责，承担起相应的社会责任：本文阐述了公司社会责任的内涵，并从公司社会责任的视角出发，提出了公司治理模式重塑的建议，对完善目前的治理模式具有重要意义。     

微博中的谣言传播与辟谣机制探析

"微博控"越来越多,微博时代已经到来,这使得信息传播速度加快,同时覆盖范围也不断扩大。在互联网这样一个杂糅的生态环境里,各种信息共存,真真假假很难分辨。微博本身既带来谣言同时又作为辟谣工具在发挥作用。本文通过三个方面简要分析微博中的谣言传播和辟谣机制。     

Market manipulation by rumormongers: Evidence from insiders’ stock selling

Using a large sample of data on insiders’ stock selling and rumors about A-share listed companies in China, this study empirically tests whether and how rumors about companies are used to manipulate the market in the context of insiders’ stock selling. We find that the probability of a rumor’s occurrence, especially that of a favorable rumor, significantly increases in the 30 days before the first transaction in a round of insiders’ stock selling and remains high for 30 days afterward, showing clear signs of manipulation. These results are robust to several endogeneity tests. The probability of manipulation via rumor increases with a company’s degree of information asymmetry. In addition, large-scale stock selling, centralized bidding, and transactions involving CEOs or chairmen (or their relatives) have a significantly higher probability of manipulation via rumor, while transactions made by directors, supervisors, or senior executives (but not their relatives) have a significantly lower probability of manipulation via rumor. Further examination shows that using rumor to manipulate the market increases insiders’ transaction returns but leads to stock price reversal in the long term.     

Rumor Clarification and Stock Returns: Do Bull Markets Behave Differently from Bear Markets?

This paper analyzes the effects of official rumor clarification on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions. The results show that the average cumulative abnormal return after the clarification event is significantly positive in a bull market, and significantly negative in a bear market. The results are robust across various types of rumors, including rumors of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring, and positive changes in a firm's operations. Moreover, in both bull and bear markets, investors are unable to distinguish between rumors that prove true and those that prove false, or between strong and weak rumor denial. Furthermore, investors are also unable to adjust their strategies accordingly.     

Rumors and pre-announcement trading: why sell target stocks before acquisition announcements?

We track trading activity in the days preceding acquisition announcements for target firms and find that abnormally high trading volume precedes significant price movement. Using additional intraday data, we find increased active-selling in target stocks before acquisition announcements that offsets increased active-buying. This is unexpected because sellers often lose money when an acquisition is announced. After ruling out alternative explanations, we find evidence that sellers are rational investors who trade on the market??s perceived overreaction to takeover rumors. While sellers lose money when a rumor precedes an actual announcement, in most cases rumors fail to materialize into public announcements. We provide evidence that the significant pre-announcement volume we document reflects the market??s processing of highly uncertain information in takeover rumors.     

Rumors in the sky: Corporate rumors and stock price synchronicity

Using hand-collected rumor clarification announcements from Chinese listed firms to identify corporate rumors, we find that rumored firms have lower stock price synchronicity (R²) than do firms without rumors. Channel analyses reveal that rumors reduce stock price synchronicity through elevating investor sentiment rather than stimulating informed trading. Additionally, the negative association between corporate rumors and stock price synchronicity is more evident among firms with more individual investors and higher information opacity. Moreover, corporate rumors are associated with higher analyst forecast errors and forecast dispersion. Overall, our evidence suggests that corporate rumors reduce stock price synchronicity by increasing investor irrationality.     

Insider trading in rumored takeover targets

We examine insider trading surrounding takeover rumors in a sample of 1,642 publicly traded US firms. Using difference-in-differences regressions, we find that insider net purchases increase within the year prior to the first publication of a takeover rumor, particularly when rumor articles are either accurate (lead to a takeover announcement) or informative (provide substantial justification for the rumor's publication). Moreover, we find abnormal insider trading to be a significant predictor of takeover announcements occurring within the following year. Finally, passive net purchasing (i.e., selling less rather than buying more) is more pronounced among managing insiders than among non-managing insiders.     

Rumors

A Kyle (1985) model with private information diffusion is used to examine the motivation to spread stock tips. An informed investor with limited investment capacity spreads imprecise rumors to an audience of followers. Followers trade on the advice and move the price. Due to the imprecision of the rumor, the price overshoots with positive probability. This gives the rumormonger the opportunity to trade twice: First when she receives information, then when she knows the price to be overshooting. In equilibrium, rumors are informative and both rumormongers and followers increase their profits at the expense of uninformed liquidity traders.     

Institutional trading in firms rumored to be takeover targets

In this paper we examine institutional trading in proximity to takeover rumors by combining the ANcerno dataset of transaction-level institutional trades with a unique sample of takeover rumor ‘scoops’. We find that institutions are net buyers in firms which subsequently become subject to takeover speculation and that institutional trading predicts which rumored firms will eventually receive takeover bids. Segregating funds according to their propensity to trade, we show that those less likely to purchase rumored targets by chance over the pre-rumor period are more likely to identify firms which will receive bid proposals and that they trade more profitably over both the pre- and post-rumor periods. We test for the presence of informed trading in a variety of ways and conclude that institutional investors appear to trade on material private information which identifies the firms soon to be the target of takeover speculation.     

Starts and refutations of the Covid-19 rumors: Evidence from the reaction of the stock market

By manually collecting data on Internet-based rumors concerning COVID-19, we investigate the market reactions to the spread of such rumors and the government’s refutation of them. We find that frightening (reassuring) rumors have a negative (positive) impact on investors. The refutation of frightening rumors triggers a positive market response, whereas the refutation of reassuring rumors does not cause a significant market reaction. Further analysis shows that there is a stock price drift when frightening rumors are refuted by governments. Our conclusions remain robust after considering endogeneity. Our findings support the notion that epidemic-related rumors affect investors’ decisions, which add to literatures of the market responses of companies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and provide incremental evidence for the “the spiral of silence” theory.     

Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries

The Central European banking industry is dominated by foreign-owned banks. During the recent crisis, for the first time since the transition, foreign parent companies were frequently in a worse financial condition than their subsidiaries. This situation created a unique opportunity to study new aspects of market discipline exercised by non-financial depositors. Using a comprehensive data set, we find that the recent crisis did not change the sensitivity of deposit growth rates to accounting risk measures. We establish that depositors’ actions were more strongly influenced by negative press rumors concerning parent companies than by fundamentals. The impact of rumors was especially perceptible when rumors turned out ex post to be founded. Additionally, we document that public aid announcements were primarily interpreted by depositors as confirmation of a parent company’s financial distress. Our results indicate that depositors react rationally to sources of information other than financial statements; this discovery has policy implications, as depositor discipline is usually the only viable and universal source of market discipline for banks in emerging economies.     

传闻消息对我国上市公司股价影响的实证分析

本文通过有关我国上市公司的传闻消息对上市公司股价影响的实证分析,得出在消息公布日前2天以及后3天的时间段里,传闻消息对股价有正影响,从而给投机者带来了非正常收益,但是从长期来看,传闻消息不会给投资者带来任何非正常收益。另外,通过对各类传闻消息对股价影响的进一步分析,发现在诸类传闻消息中,主力类传闻对上市公司股价的影响最为显著,能给投机者带来很大的非正常收益。