Profit shifting in the EU: evidence from Germany

The paper considers profit shifting behavior using data on German inbound and outbound FDI. It finds an empirical correlation between the home country tax rate of a parent and the net of tax profitability of its German affiliate that is consistent with profit shifting behavior. For profitable affiliates that are directly owned by a foreign investor the evidence suggests that a 10-percentage point increase in the parent’s home country tax rate leads to roughly half a percentage point increase in the profitability of the German subsidiary. On the outbound side of German FDI, the data provides some evidence that tax rate changes in the host country lead to a stronger change in after-tax profitability for affiliates that are wholly owned, which may reflect the larger flexibility of these firms in carrying out tax minimizing behavior without interference of minority owners. The hospitality and support by the Deutsche Bundesbank Research Center is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Oliver Busch, Michael P. Devereux, Ruud de Mooij, Chris Heady, Beatrix Stejskal-Passler, an anonymous referee, and participants of the IFS/ETPF conference 2006 for excellent comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine.     

Financial factors in foreign direct investments: A dynamic analysis of international data

In contrast to existing empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) studies that examine the static effects of strategic or real economic variables, this paper focuses on the impacts of financial variables on FDI outflows for four largest industrial countries using dynamic time series methods. The results show that FDI outflows are non-stationary but have a long-run cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. In addition, there are causal effects of exchange rates on direct investments in the short run. Multivariate cointegration analysis shows the significance of financial channels such as cost of capital and real wealth through which the real exchange rate effects operate. The effects of financial channels are comparable to those of the real wage rate channel. Overall, the present paper provides significant and methodologically consistent international evidence for dynamic interactions between FDIs and financial variables.     

Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence

This paper presents a model of the portfolio and financing adjustments of U.S. banks over the business cycle. At the core of the model is a moral hazard problem between depositors/bank regulators and stockholders. The solution to this problem takes the form of shared management of the bank. Stockholders manage the bank's portfolio and the regulator manages the financing of the portfolio. The model predicts that portfolio adjustments are made to conform to the risk aversion of shareholders and financing adjustments are made to offset changes in portfolio risk. Regression evidence for 1955–2000 fails to reject these predictions.     

Dispersion trading: Empirical evidence from U.S. options markets

This paper develops empirical evidence on the viability of a form of volatility trading known as “dispersion trading.” The results shed light on the efficiency with which U.S. options markets price volatility.Using end-of-day implied volatilities extracted from equity option prices for the stocks that comprise the S&P 500, the implied volatility of the S&P 500 is computed using a modification of the Markowitz variance equation. This Markowitz-implied volatility is then compared to the implied volatility of the S&P 500 extracted directly from index options on the S&P 500. These contemporaneous measures of implied volatility are then examined for exploitable discrepancies both with and without transaction costs. The study covers the period October 31, 2005 through November 1, 2007.It is shown that, from a trader's perspective, index option implied volatility tended to be more often “rich” and component volatilities tended to be more often “cheap.” Nevertheless, there were times when the opposite was true; suggesting that potential dispersion trades can run in either direction.     

Foreign direct investment,exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth contrary to some studies, which found that FDI does not cause economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government could stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.     

Sharing information in the credit market: Contract-level evidence from U.S. firms

We investigate the impact of lenders' information sharing on firms' performance in the credit market using rich contract-level data from a U.S. credit bureau. The staggered entry of lenders into the bureau offers a natural experiment to identify the effect of lenders' improved access to information. Consistent with the predictions of 35 and 36 and Pagano and Jappelli (1993), we find that information sharing reduces contract delinquencies and defaults, especially when firms are informationally opaque. The results also reveal that information sharing does not reduce the use of guarantees, that is, it may not loosen lending standards.     

Political influence in hedge fund activism: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial election

This study examines the causal impacts of political influence on hedge fund activism in an exogenous setting of U.S. gubernatorial election. Local incumbent politicians have incentives to protect local inefficient firms from being targeted by activists because activism could lead to divestment and local worker layoffs. And such incentives can become weaker in election years because political competition increases the incumbent politician’s accountability to broader groups of stakeholders. Consistent with this prediction, the likelihood of local firms being targeted by activists is shown to be significantly higher during election years. Moreover, the firm’s political connections mitigate the effects of election, suggesting that politicians still maintain protection to connected firms. Further cross-sectional tests show that the effects of election are stronger (1) for firms with lower labor intensity, severer problem of free cash flow and lower efficiency, and (2) when the political competition is fiercer. Additional tests reveal that hedge fund activism enhances the target firm’s operating performance and creates larger value for investors when it faces weaker political influence. To sum up, our findings suggest that political influence affects hedge fund activism and the activists strategically adjust the timing of initiating campaigns according to the changes of such influence.     

The capital structure of multinational corporations: Canadian versus U.S. evidence

Contrary to the U.S. evidence, we show that Canadian multinational corporations (MNCs) display higher leverage than domestic firms (DCs). This higher leverage is due to lower agency costs of debt associated with MNCs' U.S. operations. We also find that the Canadian firms with international bond market access have higher leverage than firms without such access. Comparison with a U.S. matched sample shows that the sensitivity of leverage to firm-specific factors differs between the two countries, especially for the MNCs samples. Our evidence indicates that capital structures of MNCs are a complex interaction of both home and host country factors and differences in leverage determinants across countries.     

金融危机与经济波动特征事实:中美两国比较

本文对金融危机前后(2006~2009年)中美两国经济指标的波动性和协动性进行系统比较,发现两国的宏观经济波动特征有显著差异。这种差异有些属于金融危机期间的非常规现象,有些与中国特殊的调控措施、经济发展模式有关。就上述差异的理解对于分析宏观经济形势、制定宏观调控政策都是非常有帮助的。     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and risk aversion: evidence from the U.S. and European equity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of unconventional monetary policy announcements on risk aversion – as proxied by the variance premium – by using panel data analysis. The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the major European and U.S. equity markets by studying the impact that the announcements of an unconventional monetary policy has on market uncertainty and risk perception. By measuring the difference between risk-neutral and realised and conditional variance, we estimate the variance premium, which captures the impact that pricing concerns have on the prices of options. The empirical analysis indicates that easing monetary policies can significantly reduce the variance premium. In addition, we examine the risk premium structure across markets to determine the potential differences in investors’ risk aversion.     

The value relevance of major media advertising expenditures: Some U.K. evidence

This study examines whether ACNielsen MEAL major media advertising expenditure measures, that are publicly available at a cost, have value relevance. Our results suggest that these advertising-expenditure measures are positively associated with market value. We also find little difference in the value relevance of these expenditures among different sizes of firms. Value relevance is found to be present only for nonmanufacturing firms. This suggests that the costly information provided by ACNielsen MEAL surveys may be potentially useful to market participants in valuing firms, at least for nonmanufacturing firms.     

High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence

Stocks with recent past high idiosyncratic volatility have low future average returns around the world. Across 23 developed markets, the difference in average returns between the extreme quintile portfolios sorted on idiosyncratic volatility is -1.31%$-1.31\%$ per month, after controlling for world market, size, and value factors. The effect is individually significant in each G7 country. In the United States, we rule out explanations based on trading frictions, information dissemination, and higher moments. There is strong covariation in the low returns to high-idiosyncratic-volatility stocks across countries, suggesting that broad, not easily diversifiable factors lie behind this phenomenon.     

Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines how U.S. multinational firms are affected by foreign currency movements. In light of detailed exchange rate data, we find that 29% of our sample of 935 U.S. firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly affected by currency movements between 1990 and 2001. Results show moreover that U.S. stock returns react asymmetrically to currency movements. By introducing nonlinearity in foreign currency risk exposure, we noticeably increase the precision and the significance of exposure estimates. We demonstrate moreover that asymmetries are more pronounced towards large versus small currency fluctuations than over depreciation and appreciation cycles.     

Destination taxation and evasion: Evidence from U.S. inter-state commodity flows

Tax evasion has been an important issue in the accounting literature for several decades, but the focus has been on corporate income taxes. We develop a new way to examine tax evasion that focuses on corporate transactions, rather than corporate profits. Specifically, we examine how commodity flows respond to destination sales taxes, allowing for tax evasion as a function of distance between trade partners. After accounting for transportation costs, we find that the effect of taxes decreases as distance increases. This is consistent with the notion that longer distances between trade partners hinder government oversight and increase the likelihood of successful tax evasion. Our results are robust with respect to outliers, strategic neighbor effects, information sharing agreements and other re-specifications. These results are important to policymakers because they evidence the difficulty of enforcing destination taxation in open economies such as U.S. states and the European Union.     

The Amount and Timing of Goodwill Write-Offs and Revaluations: Evidence from U.S. and U.K. Firms

This paper investigates criticisms that U.S. GAAP had given firms too much discretion in determining the amount and timing of goodwill write-offs. Using 1,576 U.S. and 563 U.K. acquisitions, we find little evidence that U.S. firms managed the amount of goodwill write-off or that U.K. firms managed the amount of revaluations (write-ups of intangible assets). However, our results are consistent with U.S. firms delaying goodwill write-offs and U.K. firms timing revaluations strategically to avoid shareholder approval linked to certain financial ratios.     

Foreign macroeconomic and industry-related information transfers around earnings announcements: Evidence from U.S.-listed non-U.S. firms

This study examines information transfer regarding how investors react to new foreign macroeconomic and industry-related information embedded in foreign firms' earnings releases. Using non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. as our main setting, we find that U.S. investors react significantly to foreign macroeconomic information and to information generated by the interaction between macroeconomic and industry-related information. We also find that the benefits (costs) of processing earnings reports increase (decrease) both types of information transfers. In addition, we find macroeconomic information transfers in an international cross-listing setting and both types of information transfers in an international non-cross-listing setting.     

Governance and Performance Implications of Diversification Strategies: Evidence from Large U.S. Firms

Recent research focuses on explaining the diversification discount. However, there is little direct evidence regarding the relation among ownership structure, corporate governance, and corporate diversification. The results in this paper suggest that agency issues do not account for firms adopting a particular diversification strategy. Also, the performance consequences of the shift in the diversification strategy and the subsequent changes in institutional and block ownership structures are not related to agency issues. In fact, investors seem not to avoid diversified firms per se. We suggest that observed board and ownership differences between diversified and focused firms are due to their being at different stages of corporate evolution.     

Financial Aspects of Business Cycles: An Analysis of Balance Sheet Adjustments of U.S. Nonfinancial Enterprises over the Twentieth Century

This paper formulates and tests a model of asset and financing adjustments of nonfinancial enterprises over the twentieth century. Asset adjustments change the expected income and operating risk of firms while financing adjustments change financial risk. To protect debt and equity investors from a conflict of interest problem, an up‐front contract develops an “assignment” rule for managing the firm's balance sheet whereby managers make investment decisions that conform to the risk aversion of stockholders and financing decisions that offset changes in operating risk resulting from investment decisions. Empirical evidence gathered in this paper fails to reject the predictions of the model.     

An empirical analysis of the factors impacting discount rates: Evidence from the U.S. Marine Corps

This analysis examines the impact of age, race, marital status, number of dependents, education, rank, years of service, and occupational code on personal discount rates. The study focuses on 3241 Marine Corps officers/enlisted personnel between 1992 and 1997 who separated from the Marine Corps through the VSI program (an annuity payment) or the SSB program (lump-sum payment). The analysis finds that, although the degree of statistical significance varied between the officer model and the enlisted model, holding other factors constant, females and individuals with more years of service or education were less likely to take the lump-sum payment, and that blacks and individuals with more dependents were more likely to take the lump-sum payment. Across all demographic factors, enlisted personnel had statistically significantly higher average discount rates than officers, as is consistent with prior studies. The estimated personal discount rates averaged 14.9% for officers and 24% for enlisted Marines. This study contributes to the literature in that it is the only study to examine the Marines during this time period. Many of the results can be generalized to the civilian sector to assist in formulation of savings/retirement policies.     

Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: Further Evidence from U.S., U.K., Asian and Chinese Stock Markets

Tian, Wan and Guo (2002) explored the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules in markets with different efficiency levels; namely, the U.S. and China. In the case of the U.S. they found rules to have no predictability after 1975, whereas their results give support to technical trading rules having both predictability and profitability for the Chinese markets across the 1990's. The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Tian et al. in two ways. First, to see if the conclusions extend to other markets – namely, the U.K., Hong Kong and Japan. Second, in the case of China, to examine whether the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules changed across the 1990's. On the basis of daily data Tian et al's results for the U.S. market are supported by the results for a number of the main developed markets where the technical trading rules had predictive ability during the 1970's that disappeared by the 1990's. Furthermore, the results suggest that while technical trading rules had short term predictive ability and profitability in the Chinese stock markets during the 1990's, this lessened as the decade progressed. JEL Classification: G14, G15