Profit shifting in the EU: evidence from Germany

The paper considers profit shifting behavior using data on German inbound and outbound FDI. It finds an empirical correlation between the home country tax rate of a parent and the net of tax profitability of its German affiliate that is consistent with profit shifting behavior. For profitable affiliates that are directly owned by a foreign investor the evidence suggests that a 10-percentage point increase in the parent’s home country tax rate leads to roughly half a percentage point increase in the profitability of the German subsidiary. On the outbound side of German FDI, the data provides some evidence that tax rate changes in the host country lead to a stronger change in after-tax profitability for affiliates that are wholly owned, which may reflect the larger flexibility of these firms in carrying out tax minimizing behavior without interference of minority owners. The hospitality and support by the Deutsche Bundesbank Research Center is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Oliver Busch, Michael P. Devereux, Ruud de Mooij, Chris Heady, Beatrix Stejskal-Passler, an anonymous referee, and participants of the IFS/ETPF conference 2006 for excellent comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine.     

Financial factors in foreign direct investments: A dynamic analysis of international data

In contrast to existing empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) studies that examine the static effects of strategic or real economic variables, this paper focuses on the impacts of financial variables on FDI outflows for four largest industrial countries using dynamic time series methods. The results show that FDI outflows are non-stationary but have a long-run cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. In addition, there are causal effects of exchange rates on direct investments in the short run. Multivariate cointegration analysis shows the significance of financial channels such as cost of capital and real wealth through which the real exchange rate effects operate. The effects of financial channels are comparable to those of the real wage rate channel. Overall, the present paper provides significant and methodologically consistent international evidence for dynamic interactions between FDIs and financial variables.     

Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence

This paper presents a model of the portfolio and financing adjustments of U.S. banks over the business cycle. At the core of the model is a moral hazard problem between depositors/bank regulators and stockholders. The solution to this problem takes the form of shared management of the bank. Stockholders manage the bank's portfolio and the regulator manages the financing of the portfolio. The model predicts that portfolio adjustments are made to conform to the risk aversion of shareholders and financing adjustments are made to offset changes in portfolio risk. Regression evidence for 1955–2000 fails to reject these predictions.     

Dispersion trading: Empirical evidence from U.S. options markets

This paper develops empirical evidence on the viability of a form of volatility trading known as “dispersion trading.” The results shed light on the efficiency with which U.S. options markets price volatility.Using end-of-day implied volatilities extracted from equity option prices for the stocks that comprise the S&P 500, the implied volatility of the S&P 500 is computed using a modification of the Markowitz variance equation. This Markowitz-implied volatility is then compared to the implied volatility of the S&P 500 extracted directly from index options on the S&P 500. These contemporaneous measures of implied volatility are then examined for exploitable discrepancies both with and without transaction costs. The study covers the period October 31, 2005 through November 1, 2007.It is shown that, from a trader's perspective, index option implied volatility tended to be more often “rich” and component volatilities tended to be more often “cheap.” Nevertheless, there were times when the opposite was true; suggesting that potential dispersion trades can run in either direction.     

Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades

Economic policy uncertainty affects decisions of households, businesses, policy makers and financial intermediaries. We first examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on aggregate bank credit growth. Then we analyze commercial bank entity level data to gauge the effects of policy uncertainty on financial intermediaries’ lending. We exploit the cross-sectional heterogeneity to back out indirect evidence of its effects on businesses and households. We ask (i) whether, conditional on standard macroeconomic controls, economic policy uncertainty affected bank level credit growth, and (ii) whether there is variation in the impact related to banks’ balance sheet conditions; that is, whether the effects are attributable to loan demand or, if impact varies with bank level financial constraints, loan supply. We find that policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on bank credit growth. Since this impact varies meaningfully with some bank characteristics – particularly the overall capital-to-assets ratio and bank asset liquidity-loan supply factors at least partially (and significantly) help determine the influence of policy uncertainty. Because other studies have found important macroeconomic effects of bank lending growth on the macroeconomy, our findings are consistent with the possibility that high economic policy uncertainty may have slowed the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Recession by restraining overall credit growth through the bank lending channel.     

Foreign direct investment,exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth contrary to some studies, which found that FDI does not cause economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government could stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.     

Explaining the competition for FDI: Evidence from Costa Rica and cross-national industry-level FDI data

Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an integral part of the economic development goals of policymakers throughout the world. Previous literature on FDI attractiveness has identified a host of factors that make a country more or less enticing for FDI. Where the literature is less developed is in explaining what occurs when multiple countries are roughly equal across those factors. In this paper, we argue that when several potential host countries (HCs) are on par in attractiveness, a competition arises between them, such that the HC willing to offer the most concessions to the potential foreign investor attracts the investment. We further argue that this competitive relationship holds in some industrial sectors, but not in others, with the difference centered on location constraints. Using both a case study of Costa Rica’s investment promotion activities and cross-national industry-level FDI analyses, we find evidence that concessions are greater in the manufacturing sector, where countries are often equally attractive to FDI, but lower in mining, where natural resource endowments determine FDI attractiveness.     

Compensation peer crash risks and corporate own investments: New evidences from U.S. stock markets

This study, employing US listed firms with compensation peer disclosures, investigates the impact of compensation and industry peer stock price crash risks on firms' own investments. We document three new evidences in the examination. First, we find that firms' own investments are positively affected by compensation peer crash risks but not industry peers. Second, we show that firms' own investments are explained by compensation peer crash risks only. Third, we demonstrate that the compensation peer crash risks and firms' own investments relation is positively moderated by corporate governance. Besides, additional analysis suggests that peers' incentive effect is a possible explanation to the positive compensation peer crash risks and firms' own investments relation.     

The impact of XBRL adoption on local bias: Evidence from mandated U.S. filers

This paper investigates how eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) adoption affects the information advantage of local investors relative to their non-local counterparts. By employing the recent staggered SEC mandates of XBRL as a natural shock, we show that institutional investors’ local bias decreases after firms adopt XBRL when preparing their financial statements. These results hold in a difference-in-difference research design with firm and year fixed effects or using matched nonadopting firms as controls, as well as a regression discontinuity design. The impact of XBRL adoption on reducing local bias can be explained by three economic channels: decreased information processing costs, increased corporate disclosures, and improved analyst coverage. We further find that institutions’ superior stock returns in geographic proximate equity investments significantly reduces after the XBRL mandate. The observed reduction in institutional investors’ local bias within U.S. companies following the XBRL mandate also applies to the international setting. Overall, our findings support regulators’ claim that XBRL adoption levels the playing field between local and non-local investors.     

Multiproduct firms and price-setting: Theory and evidence from U.S. producer prices

Using micro-data on U.S. producer prices, we establish three new facts about price setting by multi-product firms. First, firms selling more goods adjust prices more frequently but on average by smaller amounts. Moreover, their fraction of positive price changes is lower and the dispersion of price changes is higher. Second, price changes within firms are substantially synchronized, which plays a dominant role in explaining pricing dynamics. Third, firms selling more goods have greater within-firm synchronization of price changes. A model with trend inflation and firm-specific menu costs where firms are subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks matches the empirical findings.     

Sharing information in the credit market: Contract-level evidence from U.S. firms

We investigate the impact of lenders' information sharing on firms' performance in the credit market using rich contract-level data from a U.S. credit bureau. The staggered entry of lenders into the bureau offers a natural experiment to identify the effect of lenders' improved access to information. Consistent with the predictions of 35 and 36 and Pagano and Jappelli (1993), we find that information sharing reduces contract delinquencies and defaults, especially when firms are informationally opaque. The results also reveal that information sharing does not reduce the use of guarantees, that is, it may not loosen lending standards.     

Economic policy uncertainty,agency problem,and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry

We empirically examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks’ funding structure (FUD). Using an extensive dataset of U.S. bank holding companies, we find that high policy uncertainty strengthens banks’ FUD. For banks with a pre-existing low FUD, an increase in EPU raises FUD. However, for banks with a pre-existing high FUD, the relationship between EPU and FUD becomes negative and economically significant. Considering the lack of relevant studies, our paper contributes to the literature and provides implications for policymakers and practitioners in the banking industry.     

Political influence in hedge fund activism: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial election

This study examines the causal impacts of political influence on hedge fund activism in an exogenous setting of U.S. gubernatorial election. Local incumbent politicians have incentives to protect local inefficient firms from being targeted by activists because activism could lead to divestment and local worker layoffs. And such incentives can become weaker in election years because political competition increases the incumbent politician’s accountability to broader groups of stakeholders. Consistent with this prediction, the likelihood of local firms being targeted by activists is shown to be significantly higher during election years. Moreover, the firm’s political connections mitigate the effects of election, suggesting that politicians still maintain protection to connected firms. Further cross-sectional tests show that the effects of election are stronger (1) for firms with lower labor intensity, severer problem of free cash flow and lower efficiency, and (2) when the political competition is fiercer. Additional tests reveal that hedge fund activism enhances the target firm’s operating performance and creates larger value for investors when it faces weaker political influence. To sum up, our findings suggest that political influence affects hedge fund activism and the activists strategically adjust the timing of initiating campaigns according to the changes of such influence.     

Management,productivity, and technology choices: evidence from U.S. mining schools

A key difference between managers and other production inputs is that managers choose the other inputs. Modelling management as a Hicks-neutral productivity shifter, which is a common practice, omits the productivity returns from these input decisions. I illustrate this through a historical episode in which technology choices were important and managers plausibly influenced those choices. I study the entry of the first mining college graduates into coal mine management positions in Pennsylvania. Whereas the Hicks-neutral productivity effect of these managers was negative and not significantly different from zero, their indirect productivity effect through electrical locomotive adoption was 3% on average.     

Policy uncertainty,the use of derivatives: Evidence from U.S. bank holdingcompanies (BHCs)

We explore the link between bank holding companies’ hedging in derivatives and economic policy uncertainty using a newspaper-based index of policy uncertainty. Interestingly, we find that bank holding companies use derivatives less intensively in states where policy uncertainty is high (they hedge against homogenous (tradable) risk only); instead, they allocate their risk exposure via lending (thus increasing their credit risk). This finding is robust to different combinations of data samples, including the usage of only fourth quarter data, annual data, excluding bank mergers and acquisitions, and the results are robust to sample selection.     

Exposure,hedging, and value: New evidence from the U.S. airline industry

For a variety of reasons, the U.S. airline industry is a natural sample to analyze the relation between corporate risk exposure, hedging policy, and firm value. First, we find that airline exposures to fuel prices are higher when fuel prices are high or when they are rising. Second, we analyze the relation between exposure coefficients and the percentage of next year's fuel requirement hedged by airlines. In response to higher fuel price levels, rising fuel prices, and higher levels of exposure to fuel prices, airlines tend to increase their hedging activity. Finally, we explore the previously documented jet fuel hedging premium illustrated in Carter, Rogers, and Simkins (2006). We find a positive hedging premium in our analysis; however, the interaction of hedging and exposure does not affect firm value. We conclude that airlines increasing hedging activity because of higher fuel price exposure are not valued higher compared to those airlines employing more stable hedging policies.     

Advertising,consumer awareness,and choice: evidence from the U.S. banking industry

How does advertising influence consumer decisions and market outcomes? We utilize detailed data on consumer shopping behavior and choices over bank accounts to investigate the effects of advertising on the different stages of the shopping process: awareness, consideration, and choice. We formulate a structural model with costly search and endogenous consideration sets, and show that advertising in the U.S. banking industry is primarily a shifter of awareness as opposed to consideration or choice. Advertising makes consumers aware of more options, search more, and find better alternatives. This increases the market share of smaller banks and makes the industry more competitive.     

The capital structure of multinational corporations: Canadian versus U.S. evidence

Contrary to the U.S. evidence, we show that Canadian multinational corporations (MNCs) display higher leverage than domestic firms (DCs). This higher leverage is due to lower agency costs of debt associated with MNCs' U.S. operations. We also find that the Canadian firms with international bond market access have higher leverage than firms without such access. Comparison with a U.S. matched sample shows that the sensitivity of leverage to firm-specific factors differs between the two countries, especially for the MNCs samples. Our evidence indicates that capital structures of MNCs are a complex interaction of both home and host country factors and differences in leverage determinants across countries.     

金融危机与经济波动特征事实:中美两国比较

本文对金融危机前后(2006~2009年)中美两国经济指标的波动性和协动性进行系统比较,发现两国的宏观经济波动特征有显著差异。这种差异有些属于金融危机期间的非常规现象,有些与中国特殊的调控措施、经济发展模式有关。就上述差异的理解对于分析宏观经济形势、制定宏观调控政策都是非常有帮助的。     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and risk aversion: evidence from the U.S. and European equity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of unconventional monetary policy announcements on risk aversion – as proxied by the variance premium – by using panel data analysis. The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the major European and U.S. equity markets by studying the impact that the announcements of an unconventional monetary policy has on market uncertainty and risk perception. By measuring the difference between risk-neutral and realised and conditional variance, we estimate the variance premium, which captures the impact that pricing concerns have on the prices of options. The empirical analysis indicates that easing monetary policies can significantly reduce the variance premium. In addition, we examine the risk premium structure across markets to determine the potential differences in investors’ risk aversion.