Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

The Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Technical Efficiency Innovations: Evidence from the US Airline Industry

This paper analyzes the association between two firm performance measures: stock market returns and relative technical efficiency. Using linear programming techniques (Data Envelopment Analysis and Free Disposal Hull), technical efficiencies are calculated for a panel of eleven US airlines observed quarterly from 1970–1990. A relationship, between efficiency news in a quarter and stock market performance in the following two months, is found. A risky arbitrage portfolio strategy, of buying firms with the most positive efficiency news and short-selling those with the worst news during this time frame, results in zero beta risk yet yields annual returns of 17% and 18% for the two methodologies.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

An analysis of job dissatisfaction and turnover to reduce global supply chain risk: Evidence from China

Suppliers’ labor problems in developing countries have emerged as a key risk in global supply chains. In China's coastal industrial zones, where most Fortune 500 companies have established their manufacturing bases, local suppliers are facing serious labor turnover problems. High labor turnover rates have caused poor quality, low productivity, and unfilled orders in supply chains. Applying a combination of quantitative techniques to determine the reasons why workers leave China's export factories, this research tries to identify the root causes of job dissatisfaction leading to turnover and provides managerial implications that may assist managers in dealing with labor-related supply chain risks.     

Long-term employment relationships in the early twentieth century: Evidence from personnel data

This paper utilizes a new panel data set of workers employed by the Canadian Pacific Railway between 1904 and 1929 to analyse the incidence of long-term employment and reasons for changes in job durations after World War I. The hazard function estimates indicate that individuals have only a small probability of staying for more than ten years at the firm, although at any point in time long-term workers constitute a sizable fraction of employees. Increasing post-war spell lengths reflect the changing composition of the workforce rather than differences in macro-economic conditions or changes in employment relationships. Specific human capital and job matching were also important: Long-term employees were shielded from both firm-specific and economy-wide downturns.     

Determinants of commonality in liquidity: Evidence from an order-driven emerging market

Using an extensive, time-series, cross-sectional data-set of actively traded Indian stocks with up to 1.75 million firm-day observations, we discern the key determinants of commonality in liquidity among emerging markets. The paper shows evidence for both supply-side and demand-side factors contributing to liquidity commonality. However, the results are more supportive towards supply-side rationale for liquidity commonality among the firms where regulators and banks play an important source of commonality in liquidity, especially during market turmoil. Results are partially driven by the fact that the Indian stick exchange is an order-driven market. Economic activities like cheap exports and undervalued currency, rather than correlated trading by the institutional investors determine the demand for liquidity. These findings endorse the effect of high firm value, market return, liquidity, volatility, turnover, and alternate proxies of commonality in liquidity estimation.     

一类基于C/S模式的服装企业物料管理系统的设计研究

充足、及时的物料供应是企业顺利生产的必要条件。服装企业物料管理的目的是通过对各种物料的供应、使用、储存等的管理,以最小的消耗和最低的成本获得最大的经济效益。本文根据中小型服装企业物料管理中存在的问题,针对某服装企业的实际,通过业务流程分析,设计了基于C/S模式的中小型服装企业物料管理系统,详细讨论了系统的功能设计及实现技术。该系统实现了该服装生产企业物料管理的自动化,提高了生产效率。     

The dynamic impact of oil price shocks on the stock market and the USD/RMB exchange rate: Evidence from implied volatility indices

Using daily data from March 16, 2011, to September 9, 2019, we explore the dynamic impact of the oil implied volatility index (OVX) changes on the Chinese stock implied volatility index (VXFXI) changes and on the USD/RMB exchange rate implied volatility index (USDCNYV1M) changes. Through a TVP-VAR model, we analyse the time-varying uncertainty transmission effects across the three markets, measured by the changes in implied volatility indices. The empirical results show that the OVX changes are the dominant factor, which has a positive impact on the USDCNYV1M changes and the VXFXI changes during periods of important political and economic events. Moreover, USDCNYV1M changes are the key factor affecting the impact of OVX changes on VXFXI changes. When the oil crisis, exchange rate reform, and stock market crash occurred during 2014–2016, the positive effects of uncertainty transmission among the oil market, the Chinese stock market, and the bilateral exchange rate are significantly strengthened. Finally, we find that the positive effects are significant in the short term but diminish over time.     

基于B/S模式的高校教学与科研业务管理系统的开发

借助于计算机信息技术、网络技术和数据库技术,为高校师资管理提供一套网络化教学与科研业务管理的信息化解决方案,系统采用Web模式,实现教学与科研业绩信息的输入、修改、删除和查询统计等功能。