Institutional development,financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China

There have been profound changes in both political and economic institutions in China over the last 20 years. Moreover, the pace of transition has led to variation across the country in the level of development. In this paper, we use panel data for the Chinese provinces to study the role of legal institutions, financial deepening and political pluralism on growth rates. The most important institutional developments for a transition economy are the emergence and legalization of the market economy, the establishment of secure property rights, the growth of a private sector, the development of financial sector institutions and markets, and the liberalization of political institutions. We develop measures of these phenomena, which are used as explanatory variables in regression models to explain provincial GDP growth rates. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, legal environment, awareness of property rights and political pluralism are associated with stronger growth.     

The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis

We survey 1,050 Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the U.S., Europe, and Asia to directly assess whether their firms are credit constrained during the global financial crisis of 2008. We study whether corporate spending plans differ conditional on this survey-based measure of financial constraint. Our evidence indicates that constrained firms planned deeper cuts in tech spending, employment, and capital spending. Constrained firms also burned through more cash, drew more heavily on lines of credit for fear banks would restrict access in the future, and sold more assets to fund their operations. We also find that the inability to borrow externally caused many firms to bypass attractive investment opportunities, with 86% of constrained U.S. CFOs saying their investment in attractive projects was restricted during the credit crisis of 2008. More than half of the respondents said they canceled or postponed their planned investments. Our results also hold in Europe and Asia, and in many cases are stronger in those economies. Our analysis adds to the portfolio of approaches and knowledge about the impact of credit constraints on real firm behavior.     

The power of Connections: Evidence from financial companies

The role of political connections has been highlighted as an important influence on firm behaviour and value. We argue that political connections are just part of a wider pool of connections such as those with regulatory bodies and government officials. Using a quasi-experiment, we provide empirical evidence that broader directors' connections reduce company risk. More specifically, we find a negative and significant relationship between directors with both government and regulatory bodies' connections and company risk. Interestingly, we find that connected female directors are less risk-averse compared with their male counterparts. Our results also reveal that connected directors, though offered generous compensation packages, do not necessarily generate higher stock abnormal performance. Therefore, shareholders of financial companies should consider the trade-off between the incremental costs and benefits of appointing connected directors. The paper provides helpful insights for regulators and wider stakeholder groups.     

The cost of financial flexibility: Evidence from share repurchases

Over the last two decades, share repurchases have emerged as the dominant payout channel, offering a more flexible means of returning excess cash to investors. However, little is known about the costs associated with payout-related financial flexibility. Using a unique identification strategy, we document a significant cost. We find that actual repurchase investments underperform hypothetical investments that mechanically smooth repurchase dollars through time by approximately two percentage points per year on average. This cost of financial flexibility is correlated with earnings management, managerial entrenchment, and less institutional monitoring.     

The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis in 44 selected countries. A dynamic model based on endogenous growth theory is employed for the study for the period 1990–2017. We find robust evidence that the global financial crisis has distorted the link between bond market development and economic growth: before the global financial crisis, the bond market's impact on economic growth was positive; after the global financial crisis, the evidence is mixed. The main finance–growth channel by which proceeds from the bond market are eventually allocated to the most productive investments appears to be broken.     

The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy

This study examines the effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on interbank market connectivity using network analysis. More specifically, using data on Italian banks’ bilateral interbank positions between 1998 and 2013, we analyze the impact of the following events on each bank's network centrality: the liquidity crisis in August 2007, the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, Eurosystem's long term refinancing operations (LTROs) between 2009 and 2012, the sovereign debt crisis in July 2011, and the announcement of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) in 2012. The results show that the 2007 liquidity crisis and especially the collapse of Lehman Brothers are associated with a marked reduction of the relative interconnectedness of the Italian banking sector (i.e., a shift in the distribution of banks’ centrality to the left, away from the most connected bank). In the following years, the system progressively recovered its initial patterns of integration among banks, which coincided with the main Eurosystem's monetary policy interventions. However, the average outcome conceals different results across banks, depending on their characteristics and initial positions within the system.     

The impact of wealth on financial mistakes: Evidence from credit card non-payment

Recent research finds that poorer individuals make financial mistakes when the decisions are difficult and rare. We examine who makes financial mistakes involving decisions that are easier and more frequent – specifically, the inadvertent failure to pay monthly credit card balances when sufficient funds are available. On the one hand poorer individuals may make such mistakes because of lower levels of financial literacy. Alternatively, richer individuals may make such mistakes because of the relatively lower costs to them of such mistakes. We examine this question using confidential individual credit card statement data, with over a million data points. Our results show that poorer individuals are more likely to make these mistakes, even after controlling for education.     

The politics of government financial management: Evidence from state bonds

In the $3.7 trillion U.S. state-and-local-government-bond market, greater issuance costs (lower issue-prices and greater underwriting fees) benefit financial institutions, while costing taxpayers. Campaign contributions by politically supportive underwriters can be associated with lower issuance costs. Alternatively, contributions can influence a politician to accept greater costs. This paper's evidence suggests that contributions influence politicians: In the absence of an underwriter auction, underpricing increases with the chosen underwriter's contributions relative to others. Moreover, the difference in the fees charged by contributing underwriters and those charged by non-contributing underwriters is 2.9%. In the presence of an underwriter auction, these results are statistically insignificant.     

The interest group theory of financial development: Evidence from regulation

We use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade, capital account, product market, and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test Rajan and Zingales’s (2003) interest group theory of financial development. In line with the theory, we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization. This result is robust to the use of different data frequencies (annual, 5-year intervals), estimation methods (OLS, 2SLS, system GMM) and a check for non-linear effects. However, in contrast to the theory, we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization.     

The impact of economic news on bond prices: Evidence from the MTS platform

Although there is an extensive literature on the impact of macroeconomic announcements on asset prices, the bond market has received less attention than the foreign exchange and equity markets, even less if we consider the European market. This paper uses high-frequency intra-day data over a three-year period to investigate the impact of regularly scheduled macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements on the returns of the Italian government bond market, the largest one in the Euro-zone. With respect to the previous papers, we use a much broader set of announcements, 68, and a relatively novel dataset (MTS). We find that 25 news have a significant impact on bond returns and that almost all announcements are incorporated into prices within 20 min from the release.     

The economic effects of foreign bank presence: Evidence from the Philippines

This study examines the economic effects of the liberalization of foreign bank entry in the Philippines from 1990 to 2006. The findings provide strong evidence on the dominance of competition effects from foreign bank presence which lead to the reduction in the profitability and overhead costs of domestic commercial banks. These findings, which reveal that both the actual market penetration and mere presence of foreign banks seem to exert competitive pressure to domestic banks, imply that foreign banks may serve as an effective competitive force, reducing the excess profits earned by domestic banks and compelling domestic banks to update their production technologies and techniques to improve their cost efficiency.From a policy perspective, the findings on competition effects of foreign banks in the domestic banking system justify the liberalization of foreign bank entry in the Philippines. The main findings demonstrate that the goal of banking liberalization in transforming domestic banks to be more competitive and efficient works considerably well in the case of the Philippines. Aside from the policy of easing the entry of foreign banks, bank-specific conditions can have significant impact on the performance of domestic banks. Therefore, a sustained improvement in the efficiency of domestic commercial banks requires not only liberalizing the entry of foreign banks, but also on continued strengthening of domestic prudential regulation and supervision on the commercial banking system.     

An Italian perspective on the development of financial mathematics from 1992 to 2008

This paper is intended to be a survey of the development of financial mathematics as seen through the events that I organised, and partly co-organised, between 1992 and 2008. These events all took place in Italy between 1992 and 2003, while in 2008 I was involved in the organisation of an entire special semester in Linz (Austria); this semester is included here because it marks quite well the state-of-the-art of the period just before the so-called big financial crisis that lasted from, roughly, 2008 to 2012. Even if the survey may be affected by my personal views, it can still be seen as reflecting the actual global development since what I am going to describe here concerns major occurrences. For completeness, I also mention, although only briefly, some events that took place in Italy during the given period, but where I was not personally involved.

     

Commentary: The financial system and economic performance

Commentary: The financial system and economic performance     

Competition and innovation: Evidence from financial services

This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between competition and innovation by extending previous literature from manufacturing to financial services. We introduce a new measure of overall innovation by estimating and enveloping annual minimum cost frontiers to create a global frontier. The distance to the global frontier constitutes each bank’s technology gap, which decreases if the bank manages to innovate. Our innovation measure enables us to derive and estimate the model of Aghion et al. (2005b) at the firm level for the US banking industry. Based on individual bank Call Report data for the period 1984–2004, consistent with theoretical and empirical work by Aghion et al., we find evidence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation that is robust over several different specifications. Further evidence on major structural changes in the US banking industry indicates that banks moved beyond their optimal innovation level and that interstate banking deregulation resulted in lower bank innovation. Policy implications to financial reform and prudential regulation are discussed also.     

Stereotypes in financial literacy: Evidence from PISA

We examine gender differences in financial literacy among high school students in Italy using data from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Gender differences in financial literacy are large among the young in Italy. They are present in all regions and are particularly severe in the South and the Islands. Combining the rich PISA data with a variety of other indicators, we provide a thorough analysis of the potential determinants of the gender gap in financial literacy. We find that parental background, in particular the role of mothers, matters for the financial knowledge of girls. Moreover, we show that the social and cultural environment in which girls and boys live plays a crucial role in explaining gender differences. We also show that history matters: Medieval commercial hubs and the nuclear family structure created conditions favorable to the transformation of the role of women in society, and shaped gender differences in financial literacy as well. We discuss the changes that are needed to close the gap in financial knowledge among the young.     

The role of specialists in financial reporting: Evidence from pension accounting

The increasing use in financial reporting of estimates prepared by specialists has raised questions on the role these specialists play in financial reporting quality. In the setting of defined-benefit pension accounting—where the pension actuary is involved as a specialist—I examine whether pension sponsors with strong incentives to improve reported funding status pressure their actuaries for aggressive (obligation-reducing) assumptions. Among these sponsors, I find that those that are economically important clients of their actuaries use more aggressive discount rates than less important clients of the same actuary. Sponsors incentivized to inflate reported funding status but constrained from doing so also tend to seek out new actuaries. Discount rates become more aggressive after switches. These findings suggest that specialists are used to facilitate aggressive reporting. They also indicate that auditors—who are charged with evaluating specialists’ independence before relying on their work—may have difficulty implementing this guidance in practice.     

Corporate investment during the financial crisis: Evidence from China

China's growth model suggests that the 2008 financial crisis may have affected the Chinese economy differently from what one observes in mature market economies. In this paper, we examine how Chinese corporate investment responded to the financial crisis by using 1689 listed nonfinancial firms during Q12006–Q32010. We document that (1) the overall impact of the financial crisis on Chinese corporate investment is negative; (2) among three channels conveying the effect of the financial crisis, namely, the demand channel, the financial constraints channel, and the uncertainty channel, the demand channel dominates; (3) financial assets held by a nonfinancial firm are important in explaining the firm's fixed investment behaviour; (4) as compared to non-state firms, state-controlled firms are less affected by the financial crisis and more active in engaging in financial assets investment; and (5) foreign ownership can be seen as a buffer against the negative effect of the financial crisis and foreign-involved Chinese firms are less active in financial assets investment as compared to domestic firms.     

The economic consequences of increased disclosure: Evidence from international cross-listings

We examine market behavior around earnings announcements to understand the consequences of the increased disclosure that non-U.S. firms face when listing shares in the U.S. We find that absolute return and volume reactions to earnings announcements typically increase significantly once a company cross-lists in the U.S. Furthermore, these increases are greatest for firms from developed countries and for firms that pursue over-the-counter listings or private placements, which do not have stringent disclosure requirements. Additional tests support the hypothesis that it is changes in the individual firm's disclosure environment, rather than changes in its market liquidity, ownership, or trading venue, that explain our findings.     

The economic benefits of FASB's recommended disclosures: Evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

Prior research has documented an association between disclosure quality and various economic benefits, most notably between the cost of equity capital and market liquidity. We extend this literature by investigating whether pharmaceutical firms that comply with recommended voluntary disclosures of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) exhibit lower bid-ask spreads, greater market depth, and lower cost of equity capital. Cross-sectional analysis using pharmaceutical firms reveals a negative association between disclosure quality and bid-ask spreads (both the total spread and its adverse-selection component), but no association between disclosure quality and either market depth or the ex ante cost of equity capital. Overall, our findings provide some evidence of benefits accruing to pharmaceutical firms that comply with the FASB's recommended voluntary disclosures under the assumption that lower bid-ask spreads reduce the cost of capital and strong evidence that complying with FASB's recommended disclosures provide a direct benefit to small investors, those who bear the entire weight of bid-ask spreads.     

The influence of governance on investment: Evidence from a hazard model

Does corporate governance affect the timing of large investment projects? Hazard model estimates suggest strong shareholder governance may deter managers from pursuing large investments. Controlling for investment opportunities, firms with good governance experience longer spells between large investments. However, in the presence of financial constraints or strong CEO incentives (high delta (δ)), we find no such timing differences. Finally, these higher investment hazard firms exhibit significantly negative long-run operating and stock performance. Overall, our findings are consistent with the notion that poor governance associates with overinvestment.