怎样计算股票损益

在股市里摸爬了8年,经历了痛苦难耐的5年熊市,才赶上了振奋精神的牛市。面对现在亢奋的市场,我决定买一些基金,首选收益高、风险也大的股票型开放式基金。选取的办法就是关注基金净值增长率这个指标,它反映了基金净值增长的快慢。净值增长的快,说明基金经理及整个基金团队选股能力强,对市场变化的判断正确。每周一的报纸都有关于基金的评价,     

基金蜕变

基金终于在2003年出现了战略性转折.统计数据显示,2003年基金加权平均净值增长达到20.27%,在运作满一年的69只股票型基金中,只有3只基金净值增长率未能超过同期上证综指的涨幅.其中,有5只开放式基金的净值增长率超过了20%,博时价值增长净值增长率更是高达34.35%,列全部基金之首.……     

基金蜕变

基金终于在2003年出现了战略性转折.统计数据显示,2003年基金加权平均净值增长达到20.27%,在运作满一年的69只股票型基金中,只有3只基金净值增长率未能超过同期上证综指的涨幅.其中,有5只开放式基金的净值增长率超过了20%,博时价值增长净值增长率更是高达34.35%,列全部基金之首.     

我国股票型开放式基金赎回行为的研究

本文采用2006-2007年的季度数据对我国股票型开放式基金的赎回行为进行研究,结果表明基金单位净值增长率、基金分红、基金流动性和股票市场收益是影响基金赎回行为的重要因素,同时利用行为金融学理论进行解释,进而为基金流动性风险管理提出政策建议.     

基于因子分析法的我国开放式基金的业绩评价

在总结国内外现有研究成果的基础上,结合我国证券市场的运行特点和统计特征,通过实证检验,考察了基金的收益、风险、费用、择时选股能力,并引入因子分析法构架了一个能全面、客观反映基金综合绩效的评价体系,选择2003年12月31日之前在沪深两地上市且连续公布每日净值的39只股票型开放式基金作为研究对象,对这39只开放式基金的绩效进行了实证研究和分析。     

中国开放式基金选股和择时能力的实证分析

经过6年的发展,我国开放式基金发展迅速,截至2007年9月30日我国共有305只开放式基金,与此同时开放式基金对证券市场的影响也越来越大.开放式基金风险和收益、选股和择时能力等问题一直是国内外学者关心的一个话题.对开放式基金风险和收益、选股和择时能力的研究不仅关系到开放式基金本身的发展,也关系到投资者的切身利益.本文在收集2004年1月1日至2007年6月30日开放式基金3年半的数据基础上,应用国外成熟市场对开放式基金评价的指标,分析了中国开放式基金的选股能力和择时能力等问题,得出我国大部分开放式基金具有专家理财的特点,有一定选股能力但选时能力不是很强的结论.     

基于因子分析法的我国开放式基金的业绩评价

在总结国内外现有研究成果的基础上,结合我国证券市场的运行特点和统计特征,通过实证检验,考察了基金的收益、风险、费用、择时选股能力,并引入因子分析法构架了一个能全面、客观反映基金综合绩效的评价体系,选择2003年12月31日之前在沪深两地上市且连续公布每日净值的39只股票型开放式基金作为研究对象,对这39只开放式基金的绩效进行了实证研究和分析。     

下半年基金投资,固定收益一枝独秀?

根据中国银河基金研究中心的统计数据显示,截至2005年7月1日,11只债券型基金的净值增长率平均为3.97%,5只保本型基金的净值增长率为2.19%,23只货币市场基金的净值增长率为1.421%.在这3类固定收益类基金中,没有一只基金今年的净值增长率为负.     

我国开放式基金经理选股及择时能力的实证研究

开放式基金现已成为我国证券市场上最重要的投资机构和我国基金市场的主流。开放式基金的选股和择时能力是其获得超额收益的重要因素,本文选取17只基金作为样本并运用T-M和H-M模型对其选股能力和择时能力进行实证分析,就选股能力而言,均显示少数样本基金具备选股能力。就择时能力而言,均显示所有的样本基金均不具备择时能力。     

我国开放式基金经理选股及择时能力的实证研究

开放式基金现已成为我国证券市场上最重要的投资机构和我国基金市场的主流。开放式基金的选股和择时能力是其获得超额收益的重要因素,本文选取17只基金作为样本并运用T-M和H-M模型对其选股能力和择时能力进行实证分析,就选股能力而言,均显示少数样本基金具备选股能力。就择时能力而言,均显示所有的样本基金均不具备择时能力。     

Common Volatility: An Empirical Investigation of Closed-End Country Funds

The study of international integration of equity markets has received a great deal of interest. This paper investigates whether returns of forty-one closed-end country funds share a common volatility process with three comparable return series: the underlying net asset value (NAV), U.S. stock market returns, and foreign stock market returns. Country funds are a natural setting to test for international market integration, as they are traded in the U.S. market, whereas their underlying assets are traded in foreign stock markets. Our results indicate that only a few emerging markets' country funds share common volatility processes with their comparable asset returns. This, in turn, suggests weak linkages through the second moment of related assets.     

Why do closed-end country funds trade at enormous premiums during currency crises?

We investigate the response of US traded country fund premiums to currency crises in related foreign (local) markets. Our analysis includes 25 currency crises over the past decade involving 18 funds investing in 12 emerging markets, and 7 funds investing in 6 developed markets. We find that fund premiums and the volatility of the premiums increase dramatically in response to a currency crisis, both for emerging and developed markets funds, and that these effects dissipate slowly over time. Our results show that country fund shares and net asset values (NAVs) have differential risk exposures and that these differences are exacerbated during a crisis. While the NAV returns show sensitivity to changes in the local market index, share returns are sensitive to changes in both local and world market indices. Therefore, in response to a currency crisis, when local stock markets decrease in value, fund NAVs react more strongly than their share prices which have a strong global component. We also show that the high premiums observed during currency crises are not due to the reluctance of investors to trade and realize losses.     

The information content of closed-end country fund discounts

This paper examines whether premiums and discounts on closed-end country mutual funds (CECFs) contain useful information about future returns. We find that higher CECF premiums are associated both with higher future returns on the relevant foreign market index and with higher future NAV returns after controlling for the foreign market return. CECFs trading at large discounts are not necessarily bargains, because their future NAV performance can be expected to be relatively poor.     

Why Does Performance Persistence Vary Among Closed-End Funds?

This study extends the research on closed-end fund performance persistence by investigating whether the persistence of both net asset value (NAV) and market price returns of U.S. registered closed-end funds is related to various fund characteristics. The sample consists of 505 closed-end funds, which are investigated over the period from January 1976 to December 1996. The analysis tests whether persistence is related to the fund characteristics size, goal, management fees, turnover, fund family membership, fund experience, and the exchange on which a fund is traded. The results vary across holding periods used to calculate persistence but are similar with respect to the NAV and market price returns. Funds with lower expense ratios and funds traded on the NYSE show more persistence of strong NAV and market price performance.     

How an aggressively expanding insurance company becomes insolvent

This paper aims to model a rational firm expanding on a regulated competitive insurance market. While the market is profitable, an aggressive price cut makes the firm’s market shares and revenue climb due to immigration of insureds. But the revenue’s growth may be slower than the growth in reserves needed to maintain the annual probabilities of ruin equal to a legally predetermined value. It will result in a progressive run-out of the funds allocated for the company’s strategic growth and is fraught with inability to meet the legal solvency requirements.     

Pricing of national index funds

This article investigates the pricing behavior of national index funds (NIFs). Under barriers to capital flows in an otherwise perfect capital market, the familiar result of zero premium/discount obtains. The more realistic assumption of imperfect cross-border arbitrage suggests that in a two country setting the NIFs will sell at a premium. In a multicountry framework, the investment barriers will result in NIFs generally trading at a premium, although theoretically one cannot rule out a discount from net asset value (NAV). A simple test supports the proposition that under investment barriers, NIFs should trade at a premium to NAV after controlling for the average domestic closed-end fund discount.     

Overreaction diamonds: precursors and aftershocks for significant price changes

Overreactions and other behavioral effects in stock prices can best be examined by adjusting for the changes in fundamentals. We perform this by subtracting the relative price changes in the net asset value (NAV) from that of market price (MP) daily for 134 406 data points of closed-end funds trading in US markets. We examine the days before and after a significant rise or fall in price deviation and MP return and find evidence of overreaction in the days after the change. Prior to a spike in deviation we find a gradual two- or three-day decline (and analogously in the other direction). Overall, there is a characteristic diamond pattern, revealing a symmetry in deviations before and after the significant change. Much of the statistical significance and the patterns disappear when the subtraction of NAV return is eliminated, suggesting that the frequent changes in fundamentals mask behavioral effects. A second study subdivides the data depending on whether the NAV or market price is responsible for the spike in the relative difference. In a majority of spikes, it is the change in market price rather than NAV that is dominant. Among those spikes for which there is little or no change in NAV, the results are similar to the overall study. Furthermore, the upward spikes are preceded by one or two days of declining market price while NAV rises slightly or is relatively unchanged. This suggests that a cause of the spike may be due to over-positioning of traders in the opposite direction in anticipation.     

我国直接融资对财政收入增长效应之初探

对我国近年直接融资和财政收入增长之间的关系进行了初步探讨和研究.将国内关于财政收入增长原因的研究成果归纳为"94税改"、经济发展、居民收入增长、经济运行等几个方面,并在此基础上用直接融资数据、企业财务数据和宏观财政数据对直接融资和财政收入增长之间的关系进行了分析探讨.结果表明,我国近年来直接融资对财政收入具有明显的增长效应,从另一个角度解释了2006、2007以及2008年上半年我国财政收入高速增长的现象.     

The Performance of Actively Managed International Mutual Funds

International mutual funds allow individual investors to diversify abroad at a reasonable cost. This paper tests whether international funds that actively engage in country and security selection outperform passive global benchmarks. We apply a mean-variance efficiency test that incorporates the practical prohibition against short sales of open-end mutual funds. Our tests reject the efficiency of the world equity market portfolio over the sample period, and our funds as a group outperform the inefficient world index. However, we find no evidence of security selectivity ability using a 12-country benchmark. We do find that active international funds provide global diversification benefits. Tests using the Positive Period Weight (PPW) measure of Grinblatt and Titman (1989), which is robust to nonlinearity in fund and benchmark returns, yield similar results.     

Arbitrage,Liquidity, and the Valuation of Exchange Traded Funds

This paper investigates the performance of U.S. and country exchange traded funds currently traded in the United States and provides new insight into their pricing. While the U.S. funds are priced closely to their net asset values, the country funds are not and can exhibit large, positive autocorrelations in fund premium. The mispricing of country funds is related to momentum, illiquidity, and size effects. We also find an inverted U‐shaped relationship between fund premium and market liquidity, which suggests that more active trading does lead to lower mispricing but only after a certain level of liquidity is reached.