A novel equity valuation and capital allocation model for use by long-term value-investors

We present a novel asset pricing model that captures the investment wisdom and stock-selection approach of the long-term value-investors Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. Taking a longer term view of business prospects and business risks, we explicitly consider the time period in which a business enjoys a competitive advantage over its peers as the central tenet of our model and capture the eventual demise of this competitive advantage in a probabilistic manner. Assuming that our investor has log utility, our model answers the question of capital allocation in a two-asset scenario. The model does not enforce the Efficient Market Hypothesis and is shown to explain some well-known empirical studies on stock returns.     

Bankruptcy laws and debt renegotiation

This paper analyzes the effect of the toughness of bankruptcy law on the number of liquidations in a simple model of borrowing and lending with asymmetric information, where the creditor cannot credibly commit to liquidate the firm if the default occurs. In our setting we consider a bankruptcy law to be a one-dimensional variable that influences creditor's expectation value of collateral. We find that there is an interval of the bankruptcy law, where the number of liquidations decreases in the toughness of the bankruptcy law. We also find that if the liquidation costs are high, softer bankruptcy law is preferred.     

Residual income,value-relevant information and equity valuation: a simultaneous equations approach

The paper uses Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and compares the relative predictability of the proposed simultaneous model for contemporaneous stock price with a traditional single equation model used by the previous studies. The paper also explores how residual income and value-relevant information affect firms’ equity price. The main results of the paper suggest that the predictive ability and estimation efficiency of the simultaneous models in explaining contemporaneous stock prices are better than those of the traditional single models. Moreover, investors will use the value-relevant information beyond accounting earnings, namely analysts’ earnings forecasts, bankruptcy cost and agency cost, in equity valuation to make decision. Note particularly, the higher the bankruptcy or agency cost is, the more important the role it plays in equity valuation and, on average, the higher the accuracy of price prediction is.

Determinants of financial covenants and pricing of debt in private debt contracts: the UK evidence

This paper presents details of financial covenants given by a sample drawn from the largest 200 non-financial quoted firms in the UK in private debt contracts and analyses these data to see whether there are relationships between the nature of the covenants given and firm characteristics. Data were obtained from 72 firms, of which 17 gave no financial covenants. Firm size was found to be the only significant factor influencing whether firms did or did not give covenants as well as the only factor which influenced the margin given on debt. Some types of covenants given were found to be different from those found in previous research. In particular, there is greater use of EBITDA as a base for both interest cover and gearing covenants. This shows the importance of cash flow based lending as opposed to asset based lending for general financing for large firms.     

Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market

Based on a three-factor international capital asset pricing model, we examine whether the world market, the local market and the currency risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data collected from 2003 to 2010. As the dataset also includes the period of global financial crisis, we examine the issue of risk pricing in the full sample as well as in before and after global financial crisis periods. Unlike most existing studies, the empirical results presented in this paper are based on (i) the quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) based multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and (ii) the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. Our empirical analysis based on weekly data on 58 largest Canadian firms indicates that the currency as well as the local and the world market risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. This result holds for all exchange currency rates proxies and in all sample periods. We find that the price of the world market, the local market and the currency risks is time-varying and the Canadian equity market is partially segmented.     

Good cop,bad cop: Complementarities between debt and equity in disciplining management

We demonstrate an inherent conflict between ex ante efficient monitoring and liquidation decisions by outside claimholders. We show it can be useful to commit to inefficient liquidation when monitors fail to produce information: this provides stronger incentives to monitor. The implication for firm capital structure is that more information is generated about firm prospects – and hence firm value increases – when a firm’s cash flow is split into a ‘safe’ claim (debt) and a ‘risky’ claim (equity) compared to when a single claim is sold. We also derive the optimal allocation of control rights between safe and risky claims. This partially resolves the Tirole (2001) puzzle as to why firms issue multiple securities that generate ex post conflicts of interest.     

Volatility transmission in the UK equity market

In this study, the three-factor model of Fama and French and the ‘characteristic model’ of Daniel and Titman are tested using the French Stock Market. Stocks are ranked by size and book to market ratio and then by ex-ante β, HML or SMB loadings. Based on average returns, results reject the factor model with ‘characteristic balanced’ portfolios. In contrast, in time-series regressions, results are consistent with the factor pricing model and inconsistent with the characteristic-based pricing model. Because the value premium is small, conclusions must be interpreted carefully. However, size and market premiums allow more powerful tests of the two models.     

Heterogeneous time varying transaction costs and asset pricing in international equity markets

In this paper, we examine the time variation in transaction costs relative to excess returns, in a panel consisting of 10 international equity indices over the time period 1984–2005. This is undertaken by extending the consumption CAPM (CCAPM) model proposed by Campbell and Shiller (Rev. Financ. Stud. 1:195–228, 1988) to incorporate time varying proportional transaction costs. We rigorously address both the cross-country heterogeneity in the estimated model and endogeneity. We find strong evidence that suggests transaction costs should be included as an additional explanatory variable in the CCAPM. This leads to the conclusion that transaction costs should be included in asset pricing models as their stochastic process impacts directly on private consumption expenditure.

Financial distress, bankruptcy law and the business cycle

This paper explores the business cycle implications of financial distress and bankruptcy law. We find that due to the presence of financial imperfections the effect of liquidations on the price of capital goods can generate endogenous fluctuations. We show that a law reform that ‘softens’ bankruptcy law may increase the amplitude of the cycle in the long run. In contrast, a policy of bailing out businesses during the bust or actively managing the interest rate across the cycle could stabilize the economy in the long run. A comprehensive welfare analysis of these policies is provided as well.      

Conservative financial reporting, debt covenants, and the agency costs of debt

Considerable research has documented the role of debt covenants and conservative financial accounting in addressing agency conflicts between lenders and borrowers. Beatty, A., Weber, J., and Yu, J. [2008. Conservatism and debt. Journal of Accounting and Economics, forthcoming] document interesting, but mixed, findings on the relation between debt covenants and conservative accounting, and the extent to which the two contracting mechanisms act as substitutes or complements. In this paper, I discuss the economic roles of financial reporting, debt covenants, and conservatism within the debt contracting environment, and attempt to fit BWY's findings within this context.     

Secured and unsecured debt in creditor-friendly bankruptcy

This article develops a continuous-time asset pricing model for valuing corporate securities in the presence of both secured and unsecured debt. We consider a framework where creditors dominate the negotiation process. This is consistent with the increasing influence of creditors in bankruptcy. We show that the unsecured creditors are incentivized to liquidate the firm prematurely relative to the first-best threshold. However, if the firm’s liquidation value is very low, it should complement its secured debt with unsecured debt as a form of insurance to avoid early liquidations. Our results have important implications for the debt structure and the resolution of financial distress of modern firms with substantial intangible assets.     

Financial covenants in the markets for public and private debt

The public debt contracts surveyed in Whittred and Zimmer (1986) and Stokes and Tay (1988) were issued between 1962 and 1985, and there has been significant macroeconomic, institutional and regulatory change since that time. We analyse a sample of 36 recently issued Australian public debt contracts and document a considerable change in the ‘package’ of financial covenants used in public debt contracts. The covenant package is now less restrictive and the types of covenants used are more heterogenous. We also survey a sample of 41 recent Australian private debt contracts. These contracts contain a greater number, variety and, collectively, more restrictive set of financial covenants than those public debt contracts we survey, supporting theory which suggests that covenant restrictive and renegotiation–flexible contracts are more suited to borrowers contracting with financial intermediaries in private debt markets. We also note differences in accounting rules associated with financial covenants used in these private debt contracts.     

Does debt capacity matter in the choice of debt in reducing the underinvestment problem?

We test the impact of debt capacity on firms’ simultaneous decisions of leverage and debt maturity in reducing underinvestment problems. Examining 24 OECD countries for the period between 1990 and 2011, we find strong evidence, that, unlike previous studies, the role of leverage and debt maturity in reducing underinvestment problems is not homogeneous across firms with varied debt capacity. We find new evidence that, when firms face lower debt capacity constraints, they benefit from their ability to use a greater amount of debt if they shorten their debt maturity, or gain from using longer maturity of debt if they decrease their leverage to reduce underinvestment problems. Our results suggest that they also benefit from the ability of their firms to gain from interest tax shields by financing more with debt or long-term debt, and hence use debt maturity and leverage as strategies substitutes. However, when firms are constrained by concerns over debt capacity, they tend to opt for a lower level of debt that is mainly short-term to reduce the underinvestment problem. Our results suggest that firms with lower debt capacity cannot completely resolve their underinvestment problems by using short-term debt or low leverage, implying that the effects of the liquidity risk outweigh those of underinvestment problems, and hence impose a constraint on firms’ choice of debt.     

Pricing the Chicago Board of Trade T-Bond futures

The aim of this paper is to investigate the pricing of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Treasury-Bond futures. The difficulty in pricing it arises from its multiple inter-dependent embedded delivery options, which can be exercised at various times and dates during the delivery month. We consider a general Markov diffusion process model for stochastic interest rates and propose a pricing algorithm that can handle all the delivery rules embedded in the CBOT T-Bond futures. Our procedure combines dynamic programming, finite-elements approximation, and fixed-point evaluation. Numerical illustrations are provided under the one-factor Vasicek and Cox–Ingesoll–Ross models, and under the time in-homogeneous Hull–White model.     

Size and momentum in European equity markets: empirical findings from varying beta Capital Asset Pricing Model

We use securities listed on 13 European equity markets to form size and momentum portfolios. We find limited evidence of a size premium but significant momentum returns in eight sample markets. We find that these premia may not constitute an anomaly because they are consistent with a varying‐beta Capital Asset Pricing Model. We also show that systematic risk is related to the business cycle. Furthermore, the results suggest that although size and especially momentum returns are significant, it would be difficult to exploit them in the short to medium run, because they are positive and sizeable in very few years in our sample.     

New considerations in the announcement effects of privately placed debt

We examine the stock price reaction to announcements of privately placed debt. The results suggest no effect for firms with a public debt rating and offsetting effects for firms without a public debt rating. If the private placement appears to reduce monitoring for a firm without a debt rating, it produces a significantly negative price response. However, if it appears to increase financial flexibility and bargaining power, it produces a positive reaction. Overall, the evidence suggests that private placements of debt are more similar to public bond issues than bank loans in terms of the price reaction at the announcement.     

International reserves and the maturity of external debt

This paper studies how the level of international reserves affects the maturity structure of external debt. We show in an illustrative theoretical model that reserves lengthen the maturity of external debt via a flattening of the yield curve. Using data of 66 emerging and developing countries and applying different econometric approaches, we find robust evidence that reserves increase the share of long-term in total external debt. Results hold for private and public external debt individually. Taking reserves and their effect on the debt maturity structure together, they reinforce financial stability.     

Short-term termination without deterring long-term investment: A theory of debt and buyouts

The option to terminate a manager early minimizes investor losses if he is unskilled. However, it also deters a skilled manager from undertaking efficient long-term projects that risk low short-term earnings. This paper demonstrates how risky debt can overcome this tension. Leverage concentrates equityholders' stakes, inducing them to learn the cause of low earnings. If they result from investment (poor management), the firm is continued (liquidated). Therefore, unskilled managers are terminated and skilled managers invest without fear of termination. Unlike models of managerial discipline based on total payout, dividends are not a substitute for debt—they allow for termination upon non-payment, but at the expense of investment since they do not concentrate ownership and induce monitoring. Debt is dynamically consistent as the manager benefits from monitoring. In traditional theories, monitoring constrains the manager; here, it frees him to invest.     

Utilisation and restrictiveness of covenants in Australian private debt contracts

This paper investigates the accounting based covenants typically contained in the private debt contracts of listed Australian firms. In particular, cross sectional determinants of variation in covenant utilisation and restrictiveness are investigated. The primary source of data presented in the paper is a questionnaire completed by senior corporate managers of banks lending to listed Australian firms. In addition, standard and actual bank loan agreements are analysed. The survey results indicate that there is considerable cross-sectional variation in the utilisation and restrictiveness of covenants included in Australian private debt contracts, with this variation being partially explained by firm size and industry membership. The covenants most likely to be included are leverage, interest coverage, current, and prior charges ratios.     

Stiffing the creditor: Asset verifiability and bankruptcy

Evidence suggests that asset pledgeability, debt complexity, and control rights of dispersed debt influence financial distress resolution. We model how courts’ imperfect verifiability of assets and valuable control of misaligned creditors shape firms’ debt structure and create coordination problems that determine distress outcomes and financing. A key result is that an increase in verifiability allows financially constrained firms to fund projects by pledging more assets to misaligned creditors, making contract renegotiation in distress times more difficult and increasing the probability of bankruptcy. Since equity receives less in the event of distress, constrained firms choose riskier projects with higher returns. Consistent with our model, bankruptcy filings increase after the U.S. Supreme Court decision imposing a “market test” to assess the value of stockholders’ interest in debtor proposals. The effect is stronger for firms with low asset verifiability. These firms also experienced an increase in recovery rates, debt capacity, and risk-taking. Our findings suggest that reforms improving the verifiability of assets substantially impact credit access. However, our results also point out that improving asset verifiability may be insufficient for constrained firms with aligned creditors. Therefore, complementary reforms that facilitate firms’ access to creditors from different market segments may be necessary.