美国经济衰退原因及政策分析与启示

自2000年中期以来，美国经济急速滑坡，到2001年3月结束了20世纪90年代的辉煌阶段。文章认为导致美国经济衰退的原因包括：投资过度、股市泡沫破裂、利率调整、“9．11”事件。美国经济的好转则与美国政府刺激经济的财政、税收、金融政策分不开。从美国经济中，文章得出了增强消费者信心是关键、实行结构性减税是当务之急等五个有益于我国经济发展的启示。     

The Welfare Effects of U.S. Most-Favored-Nation Tariff Treatment of Exports From China: An Empirical Inquiry *

This Study provides estimates of the elasticities of the U.S. import demand for Chinese goods and of China's export supply to he U.S. and China of granting Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff treatment for China's exports. In general, if Washington denies MFN status to Beijing, Sino-American commercial as well as political relations world be seriously harmed. [F13, F14]     

Learning from Japan: The European Central Bank and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

What shapes central banks’ learning from the policy experiments of their peers? Both economic ideas and organizational interests play important roles. Thus, New Keynesian ideas led central banks to interpret Japan's experience with quantitative easing (2001–2006) through the impact on risk spreads, although the Japanese central bank never intended such effects. In turn, scholars and policy-makers alike ignored one critical lesson: successful policy innovations depend on banks’ funding models. It is argued here that this was a crucial omission because the shift to market-based funding impairs the effectiveness of the traditional crisis toolkit. Central banks must intervene directly in asset markets of systemic importance for funding conditions, as the Bank of Japan did by buying government bonds. Hence, market-based finance engenders a trade-off between financial stability and institutional stability defined through central bank independence. During critical periods, central banks cannot preserve both. The ECB illustrates this trade-off well. Early in the crisis, it outsourced financial stability to a (largely) market-dependent banking system to protect its independence. With the introduction of Outright Monetary Transactions in September 2012, the Bank recognized that the market-based nature of European banking required outright purchases of sovereign bonds. This new instrument gave the ECB additional powers to shape national fiscal decisions in the name of an independence that no longer has theoretical justifications.     

The Distribution of Wealth: What Is It,What Does It Mean,and Is It Important?

This paper summarises the available evidence on the present-day distribution of wealth in Australia, and draws comparison with international evidence. With this as background, I argue that an initiative to collect more up-to-date information on Australia's wealth distribution would be most useful if it focused on the least wealthy 90 to 95 per cent of the population, even though this group probably owns not more than half the nation's wealth.     

Solving the U.S. Trade Deficit and Competitiveness Problem

We compare the analytical approach of John R. Common and Ronald H. Coase to institutional analysis and social provisioning. In particular, we examine their similarities in (i) the definition and role of institutions in the economy, (ii) the allocative (social provisioning) role of institutions in the economy, and (iii) the inescapable and unchanging role of institutions in shaping the social provisioning process. We contend that Commons and Coase had more in common than did Coase and many of his followers in the “new institutional economics.” In particular, the two had strong similarities in both (a) their insights into the nature of institutions in the legal-economic nexus that is the foundation of the economy and (b) their methods for conducting economics research. Because this role of institutional evolution is, as Warren Samuels noted, an inescapable and unchanging part of an economy’s social provisioning process, it will remain an integral part of any such work in the future, regardless of the “school of analysis” or methodological approach.     

Liberalizing U.S. Trade with the Eastern Bloc: What are the consequences?

This paper provides estimates of the trade and welfare consequences of removing the high discriminatory tariffs that the United States imposes against imports from the Soviet Union and its allies. These imports are now taxed at Smoot-Hawley rates. The estimates of the trade effects exceed those of previous studies, in part because the recent “Tokyo Round” of multilateral trade concessions has increased the tariff discrimination against the non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) suppliers. The study is the first to assess the welfare consequences of eliminating this discrimination. It is estimated that the overall annual gain to the United States would be about $1.8 billion and that the annual gain to the communist suppliers would be between $1.2 billion and $1.7 billion.     

The U.S. immigration crisis

A review of the factors affecting immigration to the United States is presented. The authors develop the argument that present levels of immigration, particularly illegal immigration, are detrimental to U.S. interests, and that current global population trends will make this situation progressively worse. Stricter controls on immigration are considered.     

There's a New Silk Road,and It Doesn't Lead to the U.S.

As the U.S. emerges from the recession,American investors often wonder where the growth is going to come from.Perhaps they should talk to Ruben Bisi,international operations director for Mar-copolo,Brazil's     

Sovereign Default Risk and Recovery Rates: What Government Bond Markets Expect for Greece

Bond market data on sovereign bond yields is used to estimate sovereign default risk and the amount of the expected “hair‐cut” for Greece between 2008 and 2011. Using a structural pricing model that relies on compound option theory short‐term and long‐term default probabilities and their dependencies can be inferred. Thereby bond yield spreads for different maturities are integrated. In addition, a reduced form model is applied to infer the recovery rate expected by bond market participants. The paper shows that sovereign default risk and recovery rate dynamics reflect events that are important for Greece's repayment capacity.     

The Costs of U.S. Hegemony: Military power,military spending,and U.S. trade performance

For David Gordon and his collaborators in the social structures of accumulation (SSA) tradition, the willingness to threaten potential adversaries with military forces capable of acting on a global scale was seen to positively affect the U.S. terms of trade. U.S. hegemony yielded specific supply side benefits as favorable terms of trade reduced relative input prices and boosted profitability. Although Gordon and his co-authors recognize the potential costs of sustaining a large, globally active military apparatus, these costs are not incorporated in the econometric models supporting the SSA theory. This paper attempts to extend the SSA analysis by empirically measuring the effects of both military spending and military power on U.S. trade performance over the 1951–1987 period. It is shown that while military power and spending commitments may have positive effects on the terms of trade, these military variables had direct and indirect negative impacts on the U.S. net export balance and therefore domestic aggregate demand. In the context of a model of U.S. growth performance open to international transactions, the overall effect of the postwar military system on U.S. economic growth was likely negative in the cold-war era     

Inflation Linkages Within The Eurozone: Core vs. Periphery

We examine the process of inflation transmission among GIIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and Germany. Our findings suggest that inflation spillovers have increased since 2001. We also find that peripheral economies are (dis‐)inflation transmitters to the core. This finding is significant for policy formulation, given the very low inflation environment that currently exists in the Euro area and the macroeconomic implications that arise from this.     

The U.S. Banking and Corporate Structure: Some Implications for Industrial Policy

This paper argues that a fundamental aspect of the process of financialization is the transformation and evolution of certain key institutions. In national spaces, these include those that play essential roles in financing economic activity, such as the central bank and the commercial banking sector, and also the institutions that determine the quantity and form of public expenditure. In Latin American countries, these changes have reduced the possibilities of national authorities to influence financial processes.     

The form of U.S. in-kind assistance

Child care and housing programs in the United States are markedby quality homogeneity, restricted eligibility, rationing, andcopayments that increase as recipients' income rises. Why? Ishow that these programs can best be explained as attempts toreduce the child care or housing 'poverty gaps,' subject toconstraints that require that recipients be treated quite well.Such constraints are justified when the public is really notsure whether the government is acting generously.     

美国环保政策法规的发展历程

美国为环境保护立法的历史可以追溯到19世纪末,但是美国政府早期颁布的环保法案仅体现了美国土地政策的转变,直到20世纪70年代才开始触及工业污染和生活垃圾,一系列重要的环保法律相继出台。70年代末期,经济的缓慢增长,商业团体的游说和民众对政府的不信任放缓了美国环境保护的步伐。进入80年代,里根政府放松环保管制,但却唤起了公众强烈的环保意识。到90年代,兼顾经济和社会发展的可持续发展环保政策逐渐形成并一直延续至今。尽管美国的环保法规政策因政治气候的变化和经济发展状况以及许多现实因素的影响而有所不同,但始终是与时俱进,日趋完善。