菲利普斯曲线的研究发展进程

自菲利普斯曲线提出以后,西方各经济学派均对菲利普斯曲线进行修正,并提出各学派所认为的菲利普斯曲线形状,总结了八个关于菲利普斯曲线的不同论述,并作简要的概述.     

开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线

本文采用广义矩方法估计开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线，结合中国现实选择工具变量。结果表明，使用混合成本作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上具有显著性，影响我国通货膨胀主要是资本成本与进口中间品成本；厂商定价行为既有前瞻性又有后顾性，但前瞻性处于主导地位，且价格具有较强的灵活性。     

基于菲利普斯曲线的中国经济滞涨风险分析

传统的菲利普斯曲线认为政府治理通货膨胀需要忍受短期的失业率上升和产出下降,本文提出了一种新的菲利普斯曲线运行方式,并结合中国实际情况分析得出中国经济陷入滞涨状态的风险较小。     

菲利普斯曲线的变化对我国当前宏观经济政策的启示

当前宏观经济政策的制定不仅要积极促进经济增长以提供更多的就业岗位,而且同时又要既防止通货膨胀的发生和通货紧缩的归来。     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor

We develop a DSGE model with firm-specific labor where wage and price setting are subject to Calvo-type staggering. This is in general an intractable problem due to complicated intertemporal dependencies between price and wage decisions. However, the problem is significantly simplified if we, in line with empirical evidence, assume that prices can be changed whenever wages are. We show that the price- and wage-setting relationships are substantially altered by the introduction of firm-specific labor. Specifically, the inflation response is substantially dampened, whereas the wage inflation response is increased as compared to models with freely mobile labor. These distinctive features of the model with firm-specific labor are supported by empirical evidence from a structural VAR.     

Trade and the balance of payments

The trade data has been particularly volatile this year. After a weak start to 2013, the volume of goods and services exports increased by 3% quarter‐on‐quarter in Q2. But monthly data since has again been weak and a substantial decline in exports looks likely for Q3…     

Revisiting the Eurozone Phillips curve

• In a recent speech, ECB chief economist Peter Praet emphasised the importance of the Phillips curve ‐ the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation ‐ when addressing concerns that disinflation (or even deflation) could become a longer‐term problem in the Eurozone. Praet argued that a scenario of a sustained period of disinflation is only realistic if the link between economic slack and inflation is broken. In this article, we revisit the Phillips curve in the Eurozone with the aim of gauging whether there has been a change in the relationship following the global financial crisis and how uniform the curve is among major Eurozone economies.
• We conclude that the Phillips curve is still valid in the Eurozone, although our analysis indicates a weakening of the link in the post‐crisis period. On the whole, our analysis shows that the Phillips curve relationship has been robust in the Eurozone since the creation of the currency union. However, in replicating the analysis for just the pre‐crisis period, we have noticed that the relationship between slack and inflation for the Eurozone was stronger (i.e. the slope of the curve was steeper) before the crisis rather than over the whole sample, since the introduction of the Euro.
• We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the strength of the link between inflation and slack across the Eurozone economies, which adds to our existing body of work on their different responses to same shocks. Moreover, in contrast to the Eurozone overall, we find that in Spain and Italy the responsiveness of inflation to slack appears to have actually increased since the crisis; this might reflect the effectiveness of the structural reforms undertaken in both countries in order to reduce the rigidity of their economies.
• From 2014 onwards, very low inflation in the Eurozone has led to fears of sustained disinflation and even a deflationary spiral. Our view has always been that these fears were overblown; proving that the key structural relationship needed for ECB to meet its mandate is still in place corroborates our stance. Our forecast is for headline inflation to rise to 0.7% in 2016 (under the assumption that oil prices average US$37pb) and then to 1.7% in 2017 ‐ in line with ECB's target of “close to, but below, 2%”. The Phillips curve we have derived for the Eurozone tells a similar story. However, renewed weakness in oil prices at the start of 2016 presents a downside risk to our forecasts.
• Our bottom‐up CPI inflation model indicates that inflation might average just 0.2% this year if oil remains at around US$30pb. Furthermore, the prospect of external demand weakness derailing the Eurozone recovery poses another risk. This has raised the possibility of further expansion of the ECB's QE programme. However, as we continue to see resilient domestic demand in 2016, our baseline case still remains that the ECB will make no additional substantial adjustments to its QE programme in the near term.

     

All-or-nothing payments

We develop a general principal–agent framework in which to study optimal incentive schemes where agents are hired to work on multiple heterogeneous and interdependent projects. The incentive schemes can be based on output measures, interpreted as the principal’s payoffs, as well as input measures, regarded as observation of some of the agents’ efforts. We identify that a unifying feature of the optimal incentive schemes, called all-or-nothing payments, arises in three natural scenarios of the general framework: unobservable inputs, verifiable inputs, and observable but unverifiable inputs. Our framework and results embed and generalize several previous studies on multitask principal–agent problems with a limited liability constraint.     

Migration,unemployment dispersion and the Phillips curve

Policy-makers have long known that the complexity of the labor market creates the potential for a wide variety of strategies to be utilized to improve the ‘wage inflation-unemployment’ trade-off. This research assesses the potential effect of two unemployment-reducing strategies — reducing the dispersion of unemployment rates and increasing labor-force migration. The results of the regression analysis suggest that an approach which encourages labor-force migration would be more efficient than the present shot-gun approach of CETA and other manpower programs. Cost estimates also suggest that it is more expensive to improve the Phillips curve through employment expanding expenditures than it is to improve the curve through migration inducement.     

Markets in the firm Ken Phillips

There is widespread acceptance of the advantages of a market economy but not yet of the next logical step of applying market principles to the internal operations of firms. The use of markets within firms would benefit companies and the economy. It would also require fundamental re-appraisal of labour market regulations which imply masterÐservant relationships.     

Markets in the firm Ken Phillips

There is widespread acceptance of the advantages of a market economy but not yet of the next logical step of applying market principles to the internal operations of firms. The use of markets within firms would benefit companies and the economy. It would also require fundamental reappraisal of labour market regulations which imply master-servant relationships.     

多元曲线漂移模型与曲线预测

本文通过观察商业公司的销售曲线、证券市场的价格曲线等曲线族,提炼出多元非参数回归曲线漂移模型。它是一种多元自建模型,其中每一条曲线都可以建立一个多元非参数回归方程,并借助于参数与一条参考曲线联结成一个曲线族。本文研究了如何综合使用多元核函数、投影寻踪回归、交叉核实等方法来拟合这样的曲线族并进行曲线预测。     

Contingent payments in selection contests

The early literature on research contests stressed the advantages of a fixed prize in inspiring R&D effort. More recently the focus has moved towards endogenizing the rewards to research activity in these tournament settings, since this can induce extra effort or enhance the surplus of the buyer. We focus on a research contest as a means of selecting a partner for an R&D enterprise, in an informational setting in which the established providers of R&D services know more about each others’ relative capabilities than does the buyer/sponsor. An alternative use of our model is in choosing between prospective patentees where the Patent Trading Office has less information on the patents than the competitors. This asymmetry creates a source of inefficiency if a rank order contest is used as a selection device; we show how the contest can be modified to improve selection efficiency, while maintaining its simplicity (as only ordinal information is required). The modification that we suggest involves endogenizing the prizes that are awarded contingent upon whether a contestant wins or loses the contest. Furthermore, the payment system and the selection mechanism are detail-free. This paper is part of the project “The Knowledge-Based Society” sponsored by the Research Council of Norway (project 172603/V10).     

An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve

This study develops an efficiency wage model that generates a wage curve at the regional level and a Phillips curve at the national level, under the assumption that workers' efficiency depends on both regional and aggregate labor market conditions. An equation relating wages to unemployment and lagged wages is derived from the profit-maximizing behavior of firms, and it is demonstrated that the coefficient on lagged wages is less than 1 with regional data but equals 1 with aggregate data. In addition, there is an equilibrium relationship between unemployment and wages at the regional level, but not at the aggregate level.     

The Phillips curve behavior over different horizons

This article examines the historical behavior of the Phillips curve over frequency bands corresponding to the short run, the business cycle and long run horizons. Data transformed using band-pass filtering methods and the Hodrick-Prescott filter suggest that a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment and a positive correlation between inflation and output growth exist within the business cycle horizon of 3 to 8 years. During the post-war period, the relationships change signs at low frequencies, indicating a positive sloped Phillips curve over long horizons. Additionally, the Phillips curve is found structurally unstable not only across frequencies, but also over time.     

The Restoration of the Phillips Machine: Pumping up the Economy

What is the Phillips Machine? Reza Moghadam and Colin Carter, of the Suntory Toyota International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines, describe the machine invented by Professor Bill Phillips to model the British economy in the 1940s and its recent restoration.     

Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view

The paper investigates the presence of monetary policy credibility in eight countries by filtering the residuals from an “augmented” Phillips curve. Two of the eight countries (US and New Zealand) exhibit robust credibility effects across samples. Two countries (South Africa and the UK) exhibit credibility effects in the sample involving the 1990s, but these effects disappear in the sample beginning in 2000. The rest of the countries do not exhibit monetary policy credibility. Given that seven of the eight countries have adopted an explicit inflation-targeting framework, we conclude that there is very weak evidence that this framework enhances monetary policy credibility. These results are however sensitive to how inflation and the output gap are measured.