MODELING THE RECOVERY RATE IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

This paper provides a model for the recovery rate process in a reduced form model. After default, a firm continues to operate, and the recovery rate is determined by the value of the firm's assets relative to its liabilities. The debt recovers a different magnitude depending upon whether or not the firm enters insolvency and bankruptcy. Although this recovery rate process is similar to that used in a structural model, the reduced form approach is maintained by utilizing information reduction in the sense of Guo, Jarrow, and Zeng. Our model is able to provide analytic expressions for a firm's default intensity, bankruptcy intensity, and zero-coupon bond prices both before and after default.     

CREDIT SPREADS, OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE, AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT AND JUMP RISK

We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the "smooth fitting" principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.     

Estimation of the default risk of publicly traded companies: evidence from Canadian data

Through Canadian publicly traded companies, this study assessed how combining firms' continuous valuations by the market (structural model) with the value given in their financial statements (accounting model) could enhance prediction of a company's probability of default. The hybrid model outperformed other models. Specifically, estimated structural probabilities of default (PDs) contributed significantly to predicting default probabilities when they were included alongside accounting and macroeconomic variables in our hybrid model. These results were obtained with two versions of the structural model: the Merton model (Merton, 1973, 1974) and the default barrier model (Brockman & Turtle, 2003). Both models were estimated with the maximum likelihood method. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Choice between Bank Debt and Trace Credit in Business Start-ups

This paper investigates the choice between bank debt and trade credit in business start-ups. While trade credit is more expensive than bank debt, suppliers tend to follow a more lenient liquidation policy when client firms encounter financial distress. As a result, suppliers are more willing to renegotiate the outstanding debt or grant additional debt whereas banks are more likely to liquidate borrowers upon default. Given the risky nature of business start-ups, we argue that the entrepreneur’s choice of debt instruments reflects these differences in liquidation policy between lenders and is thus determined by the venture’s failure risk, the entrepreneur’s private control benefits that are lost upon liquidation and the liquidation value of firm assets. Using unique data on 325 first-time business start-ups, we find that firms in industries with high historical start-up failure rates and entrepreneurs who tend to highly value private benefits of control use less bank debt. These effects are especially prevalent in start-ups where assets have a high liquidation value and thus banks are more likely to liquidate the venture following default. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Sovereign default and debt renegotiation

This paper develops a small open economy model to study sovereign default and debt renegotiation for emerging economies. The model features both endogenous default and endogenous debt recovery rates. Sovereign bonds are priced to compensate creditors for the risk of default and the risk of debt restructuring. The model captures the interaction between sovereign default and ex post debt renegotiation. We find that both debt recovery rates and sovereign bond prices decrease with the level of debt. In a quantitative analysis, the model accounts for the debt reduction, volatile and countercyclical bond spreads, countercyclical trade balance, and other empirical regularities of the Argentine economy. The model also replicates the dynamics of bond spreads during the debt crisis in Argentina.     

Assessing credit quality from the equity market: can a structural approach forecast credit ratings?

We investigate the empirical performance of default probability prediction based on Merton's (1974) structural credit risk model. More specifically, we study if distance‐to‐default is a sufficient statistic for the equity market information concerning the credit quality of the debt‐issuing firm. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms the Merton (1974) model for both in‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample predictability for credit ratings, and that both can be greatly improved by including the firm's equity value as an additional variable. Moreover, the empirical performance of this hybrid model is very similar to that of the simple reduced form model. As a result, we conclude that distant‐to‐default alone does not adequately capture the firm's credit quality information from the equity market. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign exchange market liberalization and the international diversification of borrowing by Italian firms

In this article we try to assess the relative importance of real and financial determinants in firm's foreign currency borrowing by extending a model earlier developed by Kawai. We use this framework to examine the behavior of Italian firms during the 1980s. The financial components of firm's decisions are studied by means of a repeated mean-variance portfolio model based on ex ante expectation. We show that (a) the invoice currencies seem to be a good indicator of firm's real exchange risk; and (b) even at times of capital controls, corporate debt policy was affected by financial variables. The latter will become increasingly important as European financial integration moves on.     

Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets

A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default. In this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature. Consistent with the data, the quantitative analysis shows that politically unstable and more polarized economies experience higher default rates and larger level and volatility of sovereign interest rate spreads.     

Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets

Collective action clauses (CACs) are provisions specifying that a supermajority of bondholders can change the terms of a bond. We study how CACs determine governments' fiscal incentives, sovereign bond prices, and default probabilities in environments with and without contingent debt and IMF presence. We claim that CACs are likely to be an irrelevant dimension of debt contracts in current sovereign debt markets because of the variety of instruments utilized by sovereigns and the implicit IMF guarantee. Nonetheless, under a new international bankruptcy regime like that recently proposed by the IMF, CACs can increase significantly the cost of borrowing for sovereigns, contrary to what is suggested in previous empirical literature.     

Predicting default probabilities and implementing trading strategies for emerging markets bond portfolios

In this paper, we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for U.S. Dollar denominated Global bonds of 12 emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997–2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a “customized benchmark”, and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Lending Risk in MFIs: The Extreme Bounds of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Factors

Using 1,234 microfinance firms in 106 countries, this study investigates the determinants of default on the microcredit debt obligation of borrowers. Using the variant of extreme bounds analysis that systematically tests the fragility of coefficient estimates, we examine the importance of 42 variables in explaining default risk. At the micro level, the results from the modeling of model uncertainty reveal that regulation, cost per loan/cost per borrower, loan balance, borrower per loan officer, and the number of loan officers are robust factors. From the macroeconomic context, the time required to start a business and human capital are the determinants of default on debt obligations.     

企业投融资互动机制下的信贷违约风险——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本,实证分析了在负债融资与投资决策相互作用的机制下企业信贷违约风险的变化规律.实证结果表明,整体上投资支出会促进信贷违约风险,负债融资会对其产生抑制;在负债融资导致的过度投资情形下,企业投资对信贷违约风险的促进作用将更明显,而过度投资会抑制企业最优负债融资水平,从而带来更低的最优信贷违约风险;短期负债融资会促进企业信贷违约风险的增加.文章为信贷违约风险控制探寻了一种从企业微观财务决策角度进行分析的全新视角.     

Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account

World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging markets, in an otherwise standard model with endogenous default, to match these facts.     

DEFAULT AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN EQUILIBRIUM

We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk‐averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk‐free money market account, a stock, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze the endogenous interaction arising between the stock and the defaultable bond via the interplay between equilibrium behavior of investors, risk preferences and cyclicality properties of the default intensity. We find that the equilibrium price of the stock experiences a jump at default, despite that the default event has no causal impact on the underlying economic fundamentals. We characterize the direction of the jump in terms of a relation between investor preferences and the cyclicality properties of the default intensity. We conduct a similar analysis for the market price of risk and for the investor wealth process, and determine how heterogeneity of preferences affects the exposure to default carried by different investors.     

News and sovereign default risk in small open economies

This paper builds a unified model of sovereign debt, default risk, and news shocks. News shocks improve the quantitative performance of the sovereign default model in a number of empirically-relevant dimensions. First, with news shocks, not all defaults occur during downturns. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads, as well as a higher level of debt in line with more developed economies. Third, the model captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data. Finally, the news shocks have a nonmonotonic effect on welfare.     

企业资本结构与产品市场竞争——一种新的理论视角

直到 2 0世纪 80年代 ,企业资本结构对产品市场竞争的影响才引起经济学家的广泛关注。对于这一问题的研究 ,存在着两种截然不同的理论结论 :一种观点认为企业债务水平的提高会使其在产品市场竞争中更为强硬 ,增强其竞争力 ;另一种观点则恰好相反。借鉴前人理论成果的基础上 ,尝试着提出了一种较为一般的分析框架 ,并将不同的理论成果作为这一分析框架的不同侧面。     

AN EXACT FORMULA FOR DEFAULT SWAPTIONS’ PRICING IN THE SSRJD STOCHASTIC INTENSITY MODEL

We develop and test a fast and accurate semi‐analytical formula for single‐name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure and a few default swaptions, to price and hedge other credit derivatives consistently. We show with numerical experiments that the model implies plausible volatility smiles.     

Is the Small Firms Loan Guarantee Scheme Hazardous for Banks or Helpful to Small Business?

Loan guarantee schemes are an integral part of SME policy in both developed and developing countries. Yet little has been done to evaluate such programmes, particularly in terms of their ability to correct for capital market imperfections. This paper uses individual loan data from some 42,000 UK SFLGS backed debt contracts to empirically test the default specification outlined in the seminal credit rationing paper of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981). The results show that default (failure) does increase with the banks cost of capital, but not with the government premium. In addition, default appears to be determined by a whole host of other factors not typically considered in the credit rationing literature.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.