Weather shocks,poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy

Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities’ resources, as well as temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven this relationship.     

Food consumption patterns,seasonality and market access in Mozambique

Seasonal fluctuations in food consumption are a serious problem in rural Mozambique, where community isolation is high, and market integration, use of improved inputs, and access to off-farm income are low. This article uses household survey data to trace seasonal fluctuations in food consumption patterns and to analyse the ways households maintain access to calories. Significant substitution is observed between maize and cassava, and beans and green vegetables, over the production cycle. An analysis of the total expenditure elasticity of food groups reveals how precarious food security is in rural households in the poorest quintile. These households show near unitary expenditure elasticity for even the most basic staples of maize and cassava. The potential role of public policy in diminishing seasonal fluctuation in food consumption is explored using distance to road as an indicator of market access. The results show that distance to the nearest road has a significant effect on household food consumption patterns.     

Is Livestock Important for Risk Behaviour and Activity Choice of Rural Households? Evidence from Kenya

This paper presents an alternative view on causes of differentiationin rural Kenya, focusing on the role of livestock as liquidassets. We use cross-sectional household data in Central andWestern Kenya. We first examine the extent to which householdsare liquidity-constrained in relation with livestock holdings.It is suggested that many rural households are currently liquidity-constrainedand liquidity constraints are closely associated with cattleholdings. We also find that a differentiation process in whichthe households with high endowments and livestock can augmenttheir income by directing more inputs to high-return activities,while poor households who are more likely to be liquidity-constrainedcannot. Our results show that the difference in liquid assetsand associated credit constraints is one of the possible causesfor differentiation of households in rural Kenya.     

A cluster analysis of commercialisation of farmers in developing rural areas of South Africa

The purpose of this article is to classify farmers in developing rural areas according to their commercial orientation and to evaluate their distinguishing characteristics. Farmers in these areas use both farm and non‐farm activities to commercialise to some degree. The aim of the commercialisation strategy is to generate income for acquiring other basic goods and services. A cluster analysis of 392 households surveyed in 1987 in the former KaNgwane identified seven groups of farming households: very low commercial households, moderately commercial households, high agricultural commercial households, livestock commercial households, non‐farm income households, non‐farm and agricultural commercial households and highly commercial households. The characteristics of four of these groups were investigated further. The current status of the commercialisation process suggests several policy directions: food security programmes should be aimed at those lacking resources, who may also be threatened by food shortages; emerging farmers with limited resources should be encouraged to diversify their income‐generating activities ‐ they should be given support (including access to land, markets, credit and management) to encourage them to prosper; and the progressive farmers require enhanced programmes to sustain their competitiveness.     

Shocks,Structural Change,and the Patterns of Income Diversification in Burkina Faso*

Abstract: This article investigates changes in income diversification patterns for the case of Burkina Faso between 1994 and 2003. Contrary to common beliefs, our empirical analysis shows that rural households are not increasingly diversifying their income portfolios. Beyond insuring against and coping with weather shocks, diversification behaviour reflects structural change. Higher returns to agricultural activities, in particular in the cotton and livestock sectors, appear to be the root cause for less non‐agricultural diversification and some of our findings hint at better opportunities in the non‐farm sector. Yet, average returns in the non‐farm sector appear to remain relatively low and migration increasingly turns into a desperation‐led strategy. Overall, structural change seems to be biased in favour of richer households. Regarding responses to droughts, we confirm earlier findings, especially that the poorest households are hit particularly hard, being forced to sell livestock, which is often their only asset.     

Using group ratings to assess household food security: Empirical evidence from southern Africa

This article addresses the reliability and validity of household welfare rankings using the Group Ratings (GR) method. The GR aimed to measure the food security status of 142 households in seven villages in Malawi. Sets of informant groups rated households from their own community. Results show that the reliability of the method was no more than fair to moderate, and was particularly low for households falling in the middle category of 'intermittently food insecure'. Consensus ratings from the GR sessions were then compared with a number of alternative indicators of food security from a quantitative household survey. GR were associated with the more visible aspects of food security, such as household asset and livestock holdings, but associations with less visible aspects of food security were weaker. The strength of these associations varied from village to village.     

China＇s New Rural Income Support Policy： Impacts on Grain Production and Rural Income Inequality

I. Introduction Since the beginning of 2004, the Chinese Government has replaced its centuries-old policy of taxing agriculture by a new policy aimed at subsidizing agriculture and stimulating rural incomes. To this end, agricultural taxes – standing at around 8 percent of agricultural incomes – were drastically reduced. By now they are abolished in most provinces. Inaddition, farmers growing grain receive a direct income subsidy, new seed varieties and mechanization are subsidized, and la…     

Rural households' decisions towards income diversification: Evidence from a township in northern China

Economic reforms in rural China have brought opportunities to diversify both within-farm activities and off-farm activities. Participation in these activities plays an important role in increasing rural households' income. This paper analyzes the factors that drive rural households and individuals in their income-source diversification choices in a Northern China township. At the household level, we distinguish three types of diversification as opposed to grain production only: within-farm (non-grain production) activities, local off-farm activities, and migration. We find that land availability stimulates on-farm diversification. Local off-farm activities are mostly driven by households' asset positions and working resources, while migration decisions strongly depend on the household size and composition. At the individual level, we analyze the determinants of participation in three different types of jobs as compared to agricultural work: local off-farm employment, local self-employment and migration. We find a clear gender and age bias in access to off-farm activities that are mostly undertaken by male and by young people. The households' asset positions as well as village networks are found to strongly affect participation in off-farm activities.     

‘Undercultivation’ and intensification in the Transkei: a case study of historical changes in the use of arable land in Nompa,Shixini

The large areas of abandoned arable fields in the communal areas of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu‐Natal are often interpreted as evidence that rural people are no longer interested in farming and largely rely on off‐farm sources of income for their survival. However, this case study of land‐use practices in one village shows that farmers in the Transkeian coastal belt have not abandoned cultivation, but have shifted from the extensive cultivation of maize in distant fields to the intensive intercropping of maize and other food crops in fenced gardens adjacent to homesteads. Studies of yields from fields and gardens indicate that this has been an effective intensification strategy adopted by rural households to maintain yields in the face of shrinking resources and increasing risks. Evidence of changing land‐use practices is presented and the reasons for these changes identified and evaluated.     

Does off-farm employment contribute to agriculture-based environmental pollution? New insights from a village-level analysis in Jiangxi Province, China

This study examines the conventional wisdom that off-farm employment contributes to environmental pollution by increasing the use of agro-chemicals. In order to analyse the role of household decision making and village factor markets in more detail, we run simulations with a hybrid farm household/village computable general equilibrium model that is applied to a village in Northeast Jiangxi Province. We find that the negative lost-labour effect of off-farm employment on agricultural incomes is much stronger than the (small) positive income effect. As a result of reduced labour resources and increased leisure consumption, farm households reduce the intensity of rice cultivation as well as the production of (especially) cash crops. The shift in production activities is stronger for migration than for off-farm employment, because migrants cannot combine off-farm work with onfarm work, and because migration reduces the village market price of oxen services. The shift towards less intensive rice production means that off-farm employment (and migration in particular) reduces the levels of chemical inputs and manure used in agricultural production. The decline in fertilizer input is much larger than the decline in manure use, because manure is a nontradable commodity and is applied only once per year. We therefore conclude that migration and, to a lesser extent, local off-farm employment lead to lower incomes from agricultural production, but have benign effects on environmental quality.     

Unemployment and Food Insecurity in Urban Ethiopia

Although unemployment is often associated with food insecurity, the paths through which it leads to food insecurity is less explored. This study investigates the effects of unemployment on food insecurity based on data collected from 410 randomly selected households in Addis Ababa and the Munessa district of Arsi Zone. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the data. The results show that 55.9 percent of the respondents were unemployed and only 12.4 percent of the households were food secure. The prevalence of food insecurity was higher among households headed by unemployed persons. Education and economic factors are the mechanisms through which unemployment leads to food insecurity. Lack of education reduces the chance of employment and the quality of jobs engaged in whilst the economic path to food insecurity is partly related to the inability of poor households to cope with soaring food prices and seasonal unemployment. Thus, increasing employment opportunities through pro‐poor measures is a means to enhance human capital development that helps the people take advantage of the labour market and improve the economic status of households, ultimately leading to ensuring food security.     

Resources,household decision making and organisation of labour in food production among small-scale farmers in southern Zambia

This article examines the production context of small-scale farm households in the Choma District in southern Zambia. Factors associated with differential access to production assets among the households are analysed. In addition to this, patterns of household decision making and the social organisation of labour in agricultural production are documented. The study findings show that farm size, a proxy for wealth or social status, accounted for significant differences in the level of ownership and access to production assets. The study also highlights the importance of labour and livestock in the production strategies of small-scale farmers. The data from this study on decision making and the social organisation of labour confirm the importance of gender roles in agricultural production.     

Trade policy impacts under alternative land market regimes in rural China

In this paper we apply a simulation model of a village economy in Guizhou province, China, to assess impacts of trade reform at the household and the village level under alternative land market regimes. Putting special emphasis on the modeling of household migration a trade reform scenario is simulated with and without the existence of a land rental market in the village.Significant impacts of the land market on the policy outcome regarding household production, income and welfare are found. The possibility to trade land within the village leads to increasing specialization into agriculture and migration among the households as a response to the policy shock. In a situation with a land market, incomes of households which expand agricultural production are less negatively affected by trade reform than incomes of households which migration more.At the village level, a land market does not influence the poverty outcome of the reform but reduces its inequality enhancing impact. Village migration and exports of agricultural outputs increase.     

The role of off-farm employment in the rural energy consumption transition — A village-level analysis in Jiangxi Province, China

Energy consumption in rural areas in China is characterized by high consumption of fuelwood, straw and other biomass. Off-farm employment can play an important role in the transition towards more sustainable sources of energy by increasing rural household incomes and reducing the amount of labor available for biomass collection. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of off-farm employment on rural household energy consumption choices, and to disentangle the various causal relationships that play a role in this respect. To this end, a hybrid farm household/village computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used that has been calibrated for a remote village in Northeast Jiangxi Province where fuelwood is the main source of energy. The model takes into account nonseparability of farm household production and consumption decisions as well as linkages within the village between households involved in off-farm employment and households with no members working off-farm. Contrary to previous research for a richer region in rural China, we find that fuelwood is not an inferior good. The positive impact of more food consumption on fuelwood collection more than compensates the higher leisure demand associated with higher incomes. Shifts in production activities and in prices on village factor markets caused by increased labour scarcity (the lost-labour effect of off-farm employment), on the other hand, cause a reduction in fuelwood collection and consumption. This lost-labour effect is much stronger for migration than for local off-farm employment, because the latter can more easily be combined with on-farm work and fuelwood collection. For local off-farm employment the income effect dominates the lost-labour effect, resulting in a positive overall impact of higher off-farm participation on fuelwood consumption. For migration, on the other hand, the income effect and the lost-labour effect are almost equal in size. Hence, the amount of fuelwood collected and consumed does not change much when households participate in migration. The final conclusion is therefore that increased off-farm employment opportunities do not promote the transition of rural energy use in the poorer regions of rural China.     

The impact of compensation and productivity on the final consumption of households and GDP growth rates in the long term

A single-commodity model reflecting the material aspect of GDP reproduction, the balance between revenue and expenditure flows in key economic sectors, and labor dynamics is considered in terms of simulation models to analyze Russia’s long-term economic development options. Different levels of compensation and productivity were assumed as the model’s basic data in the scenario, and the growth rates of the GDP and the final consumption of households were examined on a 15-year horizon (2006 to 2020). The results show that under regulated inflation processes, compensation growth stimulates households’ final consumption with no increase in productivity because of the inflow of foreign labor resources. Growth is observed not only in imports but also in domestic production. The problem is to determine the boundaries of possible growth in labor migration and to find ways of restricting it by improving labor productivity.     

Financial inclusion as a pathway to welfare enhancement and income equality: Micro-level evidence from Nigeria

While the importance of financial inclusion as a means of poverty and income inequality reduction has long been recognised, the paths to welfare enhancement and income equality through financial inclusion remain partially acknowledged. Using micro-level data on 1 750 rural Nigerian households, this study examines the finance-welfare nexus by constructing a multi-variable financial inclusion index. The results first show that financial inclusion exerts a strong positive influence on household welfare. However, the decomposition analysis shows that middle- and high-income households gain more from financial inclusion in comparison to the targeted low-income households. Second, informal livelihood strategies, such as environmental resource extraction, crops, and livestock production, revealed reduced welfare disparities across income distributions. Therefore, for financial inclusion to alleviate welfare inequality and ensure income convergence, rural financial markets must be redesigned to allow wider access to credit, specifically for low-income and vulnerable households.     

Working Women in an Urban Setting: Traders,Vendors and Food Security in Accra

Data collected from a 1997 household survey carried out in Accra, Ghana are used to look at the crucial role that women play as income earners and securing access to food in urban areas. One-third of the households surveyed are headed by women. For all households, women's labor force participation is high with 75% of all households having at least one working woman. The high number of female-headed households and the large percentage of working women in the sample provide a good backdrop for looking at how women earn and spend income differently than men in an urban area. Livelihood strategies for both men and women are predominantly labor based and dependent on social networks. For all households in the sample, food is still the single most important item in the total budget. Yet, important and striking differences between men's and women's livelihoods and expenditure patterns exist. Compared to men, women are less likely to be employed as wage earners, and more likely to work as street food vendors or petty traders. Women earn lower incomes, but tend to allocate more of their budget to basic goods for themselves and their children, while men spend more on entertainment for themselves only. Despite lower incomes and additional demands on their time as housewives and mothers, female-headed households, petty traders and street food vendors have the largest percentage of food-secure households. Women may be achieving household food security, but at what cost? This paper explores differences in income, expenditure and consumption patterns in an effort to answer this question, and suggests ways that urban planners and policy makers can address special concerns to working women in urban areas.     

Nonfarm Employment and Poverty Alleviation of Rural Farm Households in Honduras

This paper analyzes the role of nonfarm income of rural farm households in Honduras. It uses the national income and expenditure survey from 1993 to 1994. Income from nonfarm wage and self-employment represents 16–25% of farm household income and is especially important for middle and higher income strata. Nonfarm wage labor is geographically concentrated in small rural towns and in the industrial free zones located in the Northern region, while self-employment is particularly developed in the Southern region. Access to nonfarm wage employment is confined to educated individuals that belong to large households, while female members of wealthier households are mainly involved in self-employment. Food security is strongly enhanced through the engagement in nonfarm activities. Moreover, nonfarm income enables farmers to purchase external inputs for improving yields and labor productivity. Suitable policies to enhance nonfarm employment include education, training, and technical assistance to reduce labor intensity in agricultural production, as well as public investment and credit services to improve access to nonfarm activities.     

Sources of capital and income for communal area farmers in Kavango: Implications for agriculture and rural development

A survey based on a structured questionnaire was conducted at the beginning of 1995 to identify sources of capital and income for rural households in Kavango. The survey, which covered 80 households, revealed that there was a high dependence on external income sources. Pensions were the major source of income for the highest proportion of all households (33 per cent), followed by wages (23 per cent) and brewing (10 per cent). Other sources of income of similar importance to brewing were crop sales, non‐formal work and cash remittances.

Livestock were a minor source of income but a major source of capital and food security. Households with smaller cattle herds depended more on cattle for income and food security than those with larger herds. Cattle were a highly valued production resource that was only consumed during times of crisis and only in the absence of less valuable assets that could be easily liquidated. Grain storage was more popular among groups with the lowest income. By various criteria, female‐headed households always tended to be in the group of households categorised as the poorest of the poor. However, given sufficient income, over one third of them would purchase cattle to diversify their investment portfolio.

This article presents a number of potential strategies for improving the incomes of rural households in Kavango. These include the promotion of equitable livestock ownership and better use of the grazing resource through community management, intensification of cropping and the implementation of labour‐intensive programmes to develop rural infrastructure.