我国推进银证混业经营中的相关模式选择

在分析和比较银证混业有关经营模式、过渡模式和监管模式的基础上,结合我国现有国情,指出我国应选择纯粹金融控 股公司的经营模式、"人为渐进"的过渡模式,辅之以银监会牵头的牵头监管模式,渐进地推进银证混业。     

《麦田里的守望者》之存在主义的荒诞性

塞林格在《麦田里的守望者》这部小说中，对存在主义流派命题的处理别具一格，具有双重性的特征。不仅对主人公的荒诞性的经历进行了较为细腻的描述，同时也使其所经历的人生之旅凸显存在主义观点的荒诞性，继而将自由的观念引向了荒谬的结局。本文旨在探讨塞林格的作品中所具有的处理存在主义的文学流派和哲学命题的方法，以加深对塞林格小说创作的特点及方法的理解，论述其创作技巧、哲学观念及其所包含的现实意义。     

当前中国产业结构调整中的几个问题

当前我国的产业结构处于重大调整时期,作为导向性产业的高新技术产业应以高新技术的创造为先导,以高新技术的产业化为基础。基础产业和制造业作为主体产业是国民经济调整方向,决定着产业结构调整的进程。同时看到在产业结构调整中农业和服务业也出现了许多新的特点。     

Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with habits in consumption

In this paper we consider the implications of habits for optimal monetary policy, when those habits either exist at the level of the aggregate basket of consumption goods (‘superficial’ habits) or at the level of individual goods (‘deep’ habits: see Ravn et al., 2006). External habits generate an additional distortion in the economy and create new trade-offs for optimal policy, as the policy maker does not respond as aggressively to technology shocks in order to avoid exacerbating the habits externality. This can dramatically affect both the parameterization of optimal simple rules, as well as their determinacy properties. These effects are particularly strong when habits are of the deep kind.     

Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt

ABSTRACT

By most available measures, the level of inequality in the MENA region, including Egypt, is considered relatively low. This regularity applies to both inequality of outcomes as well as inequality of opportunity. This paper challenges this view. It argues specifically that circumstances beyond the control of individuals account for a larger share of inequality of opportunity when asset distribution is considered rather than the distribution of earnings, essentially because earnings are subject to measurement errors and idiosyncratic shocks. The paper tests this proposition by estimating the extent to which factors related to the circumstances a person is born into contribute to inequality of opportunity in earnings as well as asset ownership. The results show that circumstances account 26–32% of inequality of asset distribution, compared with only 8–10% of inequality of opportunity in earnings. The analysis further shows that the area of birth and fathers education level are the two most important circumstance factors contributing to inequality of opportunity, for both assets and earnings.     

我国基因科技领域合作研究的计量分析

以SCI数据库作为数据检索源,以"Topic=(gene)AND Address=(Peoples R China)"作为检索指令,以1994—2008年共计15年的数据为检索范围,检索得到36008条关于我国基因领域科学研究的论文数据信息。运用科学计量学方法对检索到的数据进行定量分析,揭示我国基因科学领域科学家之间以及机构之间的科学合作状况,探究基因科学领域的科学合作规律。     

浅析中国近现代文学翻译中的解殖民化意识

本文立足于后殖民语境,从翻译目的、文本选择及翻译策略三方面对中国近现代若干重要译家的文学翻译文本进行分析,认为近现代中国译家在文学翻译中的解殖民化意识由来已久,他们在中外文化交流中对平等的追求就是其解殖民化意识的最好体现。近现代中国译家在长期的文学翻译工作中在追求平等地传播各国文化的翻译目的、译出浓郁东方文化色彩文学的同时有选择地译入西方文学的文本选择态度、译写及归化和异化策略的巧妙运用对后续文学翻译工作者在后殖民语境下的解殖民化活动有着巨大的启发意义。     

中国农村住户参与转移就业的影响因素分析

根据2002年度全国农村住户抽样调查数据,当年农村劳动力转移就业比例达40%左右,转移农户占全部农村住户的比例达70%左右。农户对转移就业的参与概率随初始收入的提高而不断提高,至初始收入达到很高的水平之后开始下降;较多的土地资源不利于农户参与转移就业,但对农户参与就地转移的负面影响要小于异地转移;较多的农业固定资产不利于农户参与异地转移,而较多的非农业固定资产有利于其参与就地转移;家庭人口特征、社会资本等因素也会对农户参与转移就业产生影响。     

Sources of volatility in stock returns in emerging markets

In this study, the short-term fluctuations in the monthly returns on composite indexes of 17 emerging markets affected by the financial crises in the late 1990s and 2000 are decomposed with vector autoregressive estimates. The results are compared to the behaviour of variation in returns in developed markets. Three different models are estimated for each market. Due to first order autocorrelations, lagged returns contribute significantly to return volatility in emerging markets. Decomposition of variances indicates that dividend yield and interest rate are determining factors of volatility, but at varying degrees in different emerging markets. However, the role of dividend yield is not as strong as it is in the developed markets as efficient markets hypothesis would imply. In some cases, exchange rates significantly influence market volatility. Fluctuations in the world portfolio return have a small effect on return volatility in national markets. However, there are significant differences across all emerging markets that point to differences in market structures and particular conditions in each country. Significant contributions of interest rates, exchange rates and inflation imply the role of monetary and fiscal policy as precedents of financial crises.     

Connectivity in East Asia

As Asian economies have become more connected through physical and institutional infrastructure, the region's trade has grown and changed. Intraregional trade has increased its share, in large part through the expansion of trade in intermediates in connection with development of global value chains. At the same time, as part of the same process and as part of the structural transformation that underlies most economic development, the share of services in Asia's trade has risen. Policies that support the development of regional infrastructure and the flow of goods and services, as well as factors of production, can increase the benefits from connectivity. Meanwhile, regional cooperation has a key role to play in mitigating negative impacts that may arise from the vulnerabilities that accompany greater connectivity.     

Coordination in Oligopoly

The private and social efficiency of two "behavioral" coordination mechanisms is examined in this paper. In Cournot oligopoly, firms prefer immediate coordination on the Nash equilibrium (interpreted as a preplay communication) over the best-reply dynamics (and fictitous play) which converge to the equilibrium, but with delay (interpreted as a decentralized learning process). In Bertrand oligopoly, firms prefer the learning process. These results indicate that firms have incentives to create institutions, such as trade associations or informal meetings, to facilitate coordination of production capacities, but not prices. Moreover, quantity agreements may even increase social welfare.     

Mergers in the Electric Utility Industry in a Deregulatory Environment

We document that the merger announcement returns are positive and significant for targets of acquiring electric utility industry firms, but are not as algebraically large as target returns documented in non-regulated industry merger announcements. Additionally, electric utility acquirer firms earn significant negative announcement returns when acquiring an electric utility. We find announcement returns for acquirers vary significantly based upon the timing of the merger announcement, with mergers announced after the Energy Policy Act of 1992 generating negative returns for acquirers. We also find a significant difference in the percentage change in aggregate entity value around the announcement date for diversifying mergers as compared to non-diversifying mergers, with diversifying merger announcements resulting in a decrease in aggregate entity value.     

Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and in Countries Closing the Technology Gap

This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as “under-developed” in the post-war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea’s own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches.     

Measurement of Changes in Economic Welfare in India: 1970–2001

This paper provides time series estimates of measures of economic welfare, inequality, decile class specific true cost of living index and poverty measures based on 20 rounds of National Sample Survey data for the period 1970–2001. It has estimated piece-wise Linear Expenditure System (LES) for very poor, moderately poor, non-poor low and non-poor high expenditure groups for rural as well as urban areas. Money metric utility for deciles are derived from the money metric utility function and social welfare index is constructed by aggregating metric utility of the deciles. Using social welfare index as well as real per capita consumption, the paper analyses the changes in economic welfare over the three decades. Using conventional measures, the paper analyses the changes in poverty and inequality during 1970–2001. The paper also provides estimates of the welfare effects of commodity prices.

     

高技术产业团体标准专利许可信息隐匿及政府对策

团体标准制定有助于激发市场主体活力,增加标准有效供给,提升产品竞争力。然而,在高技术产业团体标准使用中,团体标准的专利权人在对外许可专利时往往存在信息隐匿的机会主义行为。根据高技术产业团体标准专利池的专利特点,分析了高技术产业团体标准专利许可的信息隐匿问题,探究了问题存在的原因。同时通过案例研究,在总结与对比国内外对高技术产业团体标准专利许可信息隐匿监管的基础上,进一步针对中国提出政策建议,以期推进中国高技术产业团体标准的培育与发展,提升高技术产业竞争力,实现经济提质增效。     

Changes in income distribution over time in a one-sector neoclassical setting

This paper, which is aimed at explaining the endogeneous changes in the income distribution as an economy grows, extends Darity's model and applies it to the Gini decomposition equation developed by Fei, Ranis and Kuo. It defines two types of families, the rich and the poor, both being allowed to own labor and capital but the former being assumed to own more capital and have a higher savings rate than the latter. Total supply is produced according to a neoclassical production function. Consumption demand is determined by the pattern of income distribution, and the excess of total supply over consumption is available for investment, which is an addition to the physical capital stock as well as an increase in the wealth of the rich and poor families. Over time, both families become more wealthy as the economy grows according to enlarged production capacities, meanwhile the wage rate rises and the return to capital falls as capital deepening proceeds. These, along with the distribution of factor ownership between the poor and the rich family, determines the pattern of income distribution. It is then found that: (a) as the economy grows from an initial low-level per capita income towards a long-run steady-state equilibrium, the changes in income distribution over time may follow a variety of patterns, depending mainly on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution and the situation of the initial position; and (b) only if (i) the initial distribution of the ownership of capital is comparable to or slightly more concentrated in the hands of the rich family than its long-run steady level, and (ii) the elasticity is less than one, will the changes in income distribution over time be consistent with the Kuznets inverted-U pattern.     

A Television Experiment in College Economics

Although nearly two dozen studies have dealt with the use of TV in teaching economics in one way or another, much remains to be said on the subject. Danielsen and Stauffer provide some interesting new information on the effectiveness of television as compared with conventional techniques. Their experimental design, as well as their immediate findings, will be of interest to others employing television as a teaching device.     

新时期的投资策略

无论何时何地，投资都是推动经济增长和经济发展的重要力量，从战略角度而言，投资的基本功能不变，而从战术角度而言，投资应当与时俱进，有所变化，本从投资和消费、近期效应和中长期目标、基础设施和高新技术、投资规模和投资效益，政府行为和市场机制五个方面全方位，多视角地论述了新时期的投资策略。     

完善我国会计监管模式研究

从我国目前的会计信息质量上看,我国对会计信息监管的效果不是很理想,必须有效解决会计信息失真问题．加强对会计信息的监督和管理。研究上市公司会计监管有利于防止公司操纵会计信息生成以及披露,督促注册会计师诚信执业,从而保护投资者利益,维护资本市场健康运行。     

The Determinants of the Earnings of Professional Engineers in Great Britain in 1981

Since the Finneston Report raised once again the question of the status and earnings of the engineering profession in the UK, there has been a renewed interest in the factors which influence the earnings of this group. This paper considers the determinants of the earnings of professional engineers, using data from a survey of professional institutions in 1981. The results of this exercise suggest that an unaugmented ‘human capital’ model can explain about 40% of the variation in earnings in the sample, in terms of differences in formal education and in experience. The inclusion of additional variables to reflect other differences in individual characteristics, such as sex, membership of trade unions, and further training, as well as factors such as location of employment raises the proportion of the variation explained to over 55%. Estimates of rates of return to education are presented based on the earnings function estimated.