Disinflation and the supply side

This paper studies the dynamics associated with permanent and temporary reductions in the devaluation rate. The analysis uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy with imperfect capital markets and endogenous labor supply. With a constant capital stock, the model predicts an initial reduction in real wages and an expansion in output. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and a recession sets in at a later stage. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model is also capable of predicting a boom in investment.     

Disinflation and the December 1994 Devaluation in Mexico

This paper discusses the determinants of the Mexican peso devaluation of December 1994. An examination of basic economic data reveals the shortcomings of existing explanations based on either inconsistent macroeconomic policies or self-fulfilling prophecies. We argue in contrast that the devaluation was related to the exhaustion of the disinflationary programme launched in the late 1980s, and that the timing of policy change was critically influenced by a conflict between the inherited disinflationary stance and the economic goals of the administration taking office in December 1994. The analysis suggests that a prolonged period of real currency appreciation before the devaluation was made possible not only by the strong inflationary aversion of the authorities but by a series of positive shocks that reduced the appreciation's negative effects.     

On the Cost of Opportunistic Behavior in the Public Sector: A General‐Equilibrium Approach

This paper studies the wasteful effect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between opportunistic behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill. In particular, public officials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. A simple extraction technology in the government administration is introduced in a standard real‐business‐cycle setup augmented with detailed public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970–2007. The main findings are: (i) the model performs well vis‐à‐vis the data; (ii) due to the existence of a significant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent in opportunistic activities, which, in turn, leads to significant losses in terms of output; and (iii) the model‐based loss measures obtained for the EU‐12 countries are highly correlated to indices of bureaucratic inefficiency.     

Disinflation,credibility and price inertia: A Danish exposition

This paper analyses the disinflationary policy pursued in Denmark since October 1982, focusing on the Phillips curve trade-off and the credibility of this disinflationary policy. The overall conclusion confirms no significant indication of the disinflationary policy being credible.     

Disinflation costs in China and monetary policy regimes

This paper investigates the real effects of a disinflationary policy in China, in which we conduct a disinflation experiment in a medium-scale New Keynesian model. We highlight two key features of China's economy: the relevance of money to monetary policy rules and household inequality. For the former, we consider two monetary policy regimes: an expanded Taylor rule with money and a money supply rule. For the latter, we take into account a share of the population that is limited in its ability to participate in assets markets. Our analysis suggests that a disinflation policy is more costly when the central bank controls the money supply than the case in which the nominal interest rate is the policy instrument. Our results are driven by the different impacts of disinflation on nominal and real interest rates under the two regimes.     

Opportunistic discrimination

Are minorities more vulnerable to opportunism? We find that individuals from a minority group face greater danger of being cheated because trade with them is less frequent and the value of a reputation for fairness toward them is correspondingly smaller. When the majority is sufficiently large it can only lose from a solidarity strategy of punishing opportunism against the minority, so a firm that cheats the minority can still continue business as usual with the majority. If there is a small chance that a firm might have an implicit or preference bias against either group, then the interaction with reputational incentives gives unbiased firms an incentive to cheat the minority but not the majority. The prediction that smaller groups are more susceptible to discrimination distinguishes the model from most other discrimination models.     

Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels

The last 10?years have seen tremendous expansion in biofuels production, particularly in corn ethanol in the United States, at the same time that commodity prices (e.g., corn) have experienced significant spikes. While supporters claim that biofuels are renewable and carbon-friendly, concerns have been raised about their impacts on land use and food prices. This paper analyzes how US crop prices have responded to shocks in acreage supply; these shocks can be thought of as a shock to the residual supply of corn for food. Using a structural vector auto-regression framework, we examine shocks to a crop??s own acreage and to total cropland. This allows us to estimate the effect of dedicating cropland or non-crop farmlands to biofuels feedstock production. A negative shock in own acreage leads to an increase in price for soybeans and corn. Our calculations show that increased corn ethanol production during the boom production year 2006/2007 explains approximately 27% of the experienced corn price rise.     

Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation: Why the Wage Contracts Length Matters?

Recent empirical contributions demonstrate that countries with less independent central banks enjoy lower output losses during disinflationary cycles. To explain these somewhat surprising empirical findings, some authors suggest that independent central banks probably face a flatter short-run Phillips curve. In this paper, we provide both theoretical and empirical arguments to rationalize this intuition. We demonstrate that, since central bank independence reduces the mean inflation rate and its variance, wage setters opt for a lower degree of nominal wage indexation leading to more wage and price inertia and, thus, to a flatter short-run Phillips curve. Consequently, this paper put forward a channel of positive influence of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio through its impact on nominal wage indexation. Empirical tests, performed using a sample of 19 OECD countries during the 1960–1990 period, show that these theoretical results hold also empirically.     

Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence

This paper attempts a sectoral estimation of sacrifice ratios for India. Two Structural VAR models are estimated using quarterly data for the period 1997–98 Q1 to 2016–17 Q1. The empirical findings suggest that the real cost of disinflation policy is not negligible in India. The estimate of sacrifice ratios in terms of real GDP range from 0.16 to 0.17 depending upon the model employed. The calculation of sectoral sacrifice ratios show that all the three sectors are affected negatively and the largest impact is found in the manufacturing sector followed by the other two sectors, i.e., agriculture sector and service sector. The sacrifice ratio in the manufacturing sector is found to be 1.10 and 0.72 indicating huge negative impact of tight monetary policy. Similarly, for the agriculture sector the sacrifice ratios are 0.40 and the service sector shows sacrifice ratios of 0.36 and 0.37 respectively for different models. Further, from 10-year rolling estimation, we find that sacrifice ratios are time varying. The sacrifice ratio is declining in the last few quarters at the aggregate and sectoral levels indicating that disinflation could be less costly in recent times. However, the high disinflation cost experienced prior to the year 2015 can’t be neglected. So, it is important to take caution while interpreting the results of disinflation cost in India.

     

Disinflation,switching nominal anchors and twin crises: The irish experience

This paper reviews the Irish disinflation of 1979-86 and the subsequent success in maintaining a low and stable average inflation rate. Joining the German-led EMS in 1979 broke a 153-year link with Sterling and hence is an example of a country switching nominal anchors in order to disinflate. Reducing inflation was made more difficult by a parallel fiscal crisis and the tension in maintaining competitiveness against diverging trading partners (the UK and continental Europe). Having paid the costs of disinflation and fiscal adjustment, Ireland has made a remarkable economic recovery in the last decade, combining rapid GDP and employment growth with an average annual inflation rate of only 2.4 percent.     

机会主义资产重组与刚性管制

本文选择 1 993— 2 0 0 0年间上海证券交易所 1 2 0 2例上市公司资产重组事件为研究样本 ,考察了资产重组与政府管制之间的关系。研究发现 ,1 997年我国宏观经济由过热转向软着陆 ,而监管部门对上市公司的配股管制 ,却仍然采用经济过热时期制订的标准 ,由于管制标准偏离了实际经济情况和投资者的机会成本 ,许多上市公司采取了相应的对策———“机会主义资产重组”来规避管制。本文的发现为我国的“替代性管制”提出了新的不利的证据。     

Understanding Heterogeneous Preferences in Random Utility Models: A Latent Class Approach

A finite mixture approach toconditional logit models is developed in whichlatent classes are used to promoteunderstanding of systematic heterogeneity. The model is applied to wilderness recreationin which a branded choice experiment involvingchoice of one park from a demand system wasadministered to a sample of recreationists. The basis of membership in the classes orsegments in the sample involved attitudinalmeasures of motivations for taking a trip, aswell as their stated preferences overwilderness park attributes. The econometricanalysis suggested that four classes of peopleexist in the sample. Using the model toexamine welfare measures of some hypotheticalpolicy changes identified markedly differentwelfare effects than the standard singlesegment model, and provided insight into thedifferential impact of alternative policies.     

对资金流动性的认识与疏导

为解决我国目前所存在的资金流动性过剩的问题,以分析资金流动性对经济影响的两面性为出发点,探讨当今中国存在的资金流动性过剩所产生的直接原因,并结合资金流动性过剩产生的后果,分析这些原因背后的联系,为解决和控制资金流动性过剩的问题得出构想方法,即需要将收入分配改革、外汇管理改革与行政政策、货币政策相结合,让内在变革和外在动力共同作用、互相协作,使经济能够更加健康有效地发展.     

Understanding Hurricane Evacuation Decisions Under Contingent Scenarios: A Stated Preference Approach

We conduct a stated preference analysis to understand the factors that individual households take into consideration to evacuate during hurricanes. In designing the contingent scenarios for evacuation, we randomly assign varying levels of hurricane characteristics (wind speed, lead time for landfall and the height of storm surge) combined with different types of emergency management options (voluntary versus mandatory evacuation order and a voucher with varying amounts to cover evacuation expenses). Findings indicate that individual households respond, in a non-linear fashion, to the intensity of hurricanes when making evacuation decisions. Respondents are also more likely to evacuate when the storm surge reaches a certain threshold. In terms of policy interventions, mandatory evacuation orders are more effective to increase the likelihood of evacuation. The potential intervention in the form of providing evacuation vouchers to assist households to cover their expenses (e.g. for food, water, transportation and lodging) also seems effective. We discuss policy implications of our findings.     

Widening the Economic Approach to Hatred

The economics of hate is a barely developed field. There is one paper overtly on the topic by Glaeser and several related papers on racism. war and other important topics. This paper considers the scope for taking the economic analysis of hate beyond the narrow confines of the neoclassical approach by Glaeser and those working in cognate areas.

Opportunistic shirking behaviour during unpaid overtime

We identify the presence of shirking by Major League Baseball umpires during indefinite unpaid overtime, as defined by extra innings. In the presence of new information about expected game length, umpires exert biases in ball and strike calls consistent with opportunistically reducing the likelihood of working additional time. General implications with respect to the effectiveness of salaried workers during unpaid overtime hours are discussed.     

理性认识我国风电产业的发展

随着科技进步和社会发展,越来越多的不可再生资源被消耗掉,而风能的优越性使其成为当今时代的一大主题。在国家大力发展清洁能源政策的支持下,近年来,我国风电产业已经显示出迅猛的发展势头。面对已经取得的成绩,我们应该保持谨慎的心态,理性认识风电产业的综合效益。     

Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases

This paper investigates the consequences of an exogenous increase in U.S. government purchases. We find that in response to such a shock, employment, output, and nonresidential investment rise, while real wages, residential investment, and consumption expenditures fall. The paper argues that a simple variant of the neoclassical growth model which distinguishes between nonresidential and residential investment is consistent with this evidence.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E1, E6.     

Generalizing the Stochastic Approach to Price Indexes

I show that conventional price index formulas and time-dummy hedonic regression techniques all consistently estimate growth parameters in the same generalized model of product pricing. I then use that result to make two points. First, the “stochastic approach” is not a helpful tool for choosing price index formulas, because in its complete form it can justify any of them. Second, the literature uses flawed arguments for replacing time-dummy hedonic regression with hedonic imputation. The time-dummy method is an excellent, underrated option.