次贷危机及对商业银行信用风险管理的启示

美国货币政策由宽松到紧缩的变化,次贷消费者还款压力增大,造成了次贷违约率急剧上升,使得在宽松货币政策和市场流动性充足条件下形成的收益、风险转移和资金供给链条断开,维持高杠杆比率的机构出现流动性风险,从而引发了次贷危机。从危机的形成与扩散来看,根源在于一是贷款人放松了审慎经营原则,扩大了次级信贷市场的信用风险;二是投资者过度追求收益,背离了风险管理原则;三是监管者夸大了市场调节功能,放松和忽视了对次贷市场的有效监管。     

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.     

Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.     

The U.S. Banking and Corporate Structure: Some Implications for Industrial Policy

This paper argues that a fundamental aspect of the process of financialization is the transformation and evolution of certain key institutions. In national spaces, these include those that play essential roles in financing economic activity, such as the central bank and the commercial banking sector, and also the institutions that determine the quantity and form of public expenditure. In Latin American countries, these changes have reduced the possibilities of national authorities to influence financial processes.     

Data Feature: Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications

Between the late 1970s and late 1980s, the UK Regional Accounts data suggest a much smaller rise in the South East earnings premium and consequently a much smaller increase in the regional dispersion of earnings than do the other sources of data. We discuss several possible explanations for this discrepancy and conclude it was probably due to problems at the Inland Revenue in allocating tax records across the regions. The historical unreliability of the Regional Accounts has implications for economic research on regional consumption and convergence and may have caused the poorest regions to miss out on EU Structural Funds.     

Business Cycles: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper looks at recent advances in the study of aggregate fluctuations. The emphasis is on three prominent areas of research: the stochastic growth model, economies which exhibit macroeconomic complementarities and models that emphasize heterogeneity. Each section of the paper outlines the theory, examines relevant empirical evidence and then discusses some policy implications of the analysis.     

次贷危机背景下美联储的危机政策理念

本文结合以往的危机干预经验,以美联储的次贷危机应对措施为重点,分析、归纳美联储危机政策操作的理念.在这次危机处理中,美联储秉持实用主义原则,在流动性工具上进行了大胆创新,注资范围也大大扩展,同时多次大幅度降息,这些激进的、创新的举措是与当前美联储所面对的复杂的、严峻的局面相称的.这些创新大大丰富了央行应对危机的手段,提高了解决危机的能力,但同时也可能带来道德风险问题.     

An Investigation into the Major Causes 01 Australia's Recent Inflation and Some Policy Implications*

This paper investigates the major causes of Australia's recent inflation with special emphasis on the 1970s and early 1980s A general model of inflation is formulated based upon a vector auto-regression The main empirical finding is that increases in wages and import prices and more recently in money have been significant causal factors of Australia's inflationary experience. Government current expenditure is found to contribute passively to cost-push inflation     

国际多市场寡头条件下的贸易政策和产业政策

国际多市场寡头是Bulow( 1 985)提出的多市场寡头概念在国际贸易领域的自然延伸。在本文中 ,市场之间联系的纽带是本国企业具有规模收益递减的生产技术。本文的主要结论是 ,第一 ,如果本国企业与外国企业在外国市场进行价格竞争 ,那么 ,最优干预组合包括国内生产补贴与出口税 ,它们对本国福利的作用是一致的。第二 ,如果本国企业与外国企业在外国市场进行数量竞争 ,那么 ,最优干预政策组合包括国内生产补贴与出口补贴 ,它们作用于本国福利的方向是不一致的 ,这时 ,本国政府用国内生产补贴执行反托拉斯职能 ,用出口补贴执行利润转移职能。第三 ,作为模型的一个应用 ,本文论证了出口退税政策会加剧国内市场的扭曲 ;而且它不一定能够提高本国福利。     

Core Labor Standards and Competitiveness: Implications for Global Trade Policy

One of the principal arguments for inclusion of core labor standards in the WTO is that weak labor standards provide an illegitimate boost to competitiveness and may result in a "race to the bottom" in labor standards worldwide. This paper shows that, if the violation of labor standards results from discrimination against particular workers in export industries, employment, output, and competitiveness will be reduced since employment is determined by the short side of the market. If the problems arise from abuse of market power by employers, competitiveness will be similarly reduced. Only if freedom of association and collective bargaining were intended to allow workers in some sectors to restrict output and drive up wages would the absence of these standards raise competitiveness. However, if product markets are competitive, it is likely that association rights would increase output and competitiveness by raising productivity. The competitiveness argument seems either to reflect analytical confusion or to represent a cover for protectionist interests.     

居民消费环境:指数测度、区域差异与政策启示

本文从"安全、便利、放心、舒心、满意"五个维度构建中国消费环境评价指标体系,并基于四川省五大经济区的消费者满意度调查数据及宏观数据,测度消费环境指数并进行区域差异分析发现,四川消费环境指数存在明显的区域差异.从区域间差异看,消费环境指数存在一定程度的两极分化,领先区明显且大幅度高于其他地区;从区域内差异看,成都平原经济区区域内差异最为明显,占整个区域内差异的88.42％,成都的高首位度也在消费环境中有所体现.同时,消费环境发展一般的区域,也可能在单一指标中突出.进一步研究发现,区域差异会导致消费效应差异:消费环境指数对消费的影响也存在两极分化,只有在消费环境指数领先区,消费环境指数才能对消费产生显著影响;而消费环境的区域内差距拉大会影响到消费效应;仅有单项子系统领先的地区,其消费环境并不显著影响消费.因此,本文的政策启示在于:一要持续改善非领先区消费环境,缩小区域间消费环境的差距;二要重视缩小区域内消费环境的差距,降低区域内差异拉大对消费效应的抑制作用;三要全面发力消费环境各方位改善,只有各方位在较高水平才能有效促进消费;四要明确消费环境改善的侧重点,补齐各类型区消费环境短板.     

Policy, Markets and Knowledge: Strategic Synergies in Indian Pharmaceutical Firms

This paper addresses the question of how Indian pharmaceutical firms have transformed themselves from reverse-engineering firms focused on the domestic market to research-driven firms with global presence. It analyses the crucial and changing role of national, then international, innovation and regulatory policies and their impact on growth, performance and technology evolution of Indian pharmaceutical firms. The paper argues that although public policy increased market turbulence, it also provided new opportunities for firms to expand and build new technology, knowledge and market capabilities. From the 1950s Indian firms have pursued a variety of research, marketing and internationalization strategies to tackle changes prompted by policy, markets and knowledge complexities. The paper traces firm strategies that vary both in time and by firm, and argues that the successful firms have evolved substantively towards knowledge-based strategies. The paper then attempts to identify future directions for strategy, knowledge and markets.     

经济增长与食品安全——食品安全库兹涅茨曲线假说检验与政策启示

中国经济快速增长却伴随食品安全事故频发的经验证据表明,食品安全与经济增长之间可能存在着某种相关关系。本文在理论上从弥补食品供需缺口导致的技术滥用和非正式制度缺失导致的逐利行为两个层面出发,分析食品安全事故频发的原因,提出食品安全库兹涅茨曲线假说,并进行实证检验。研究发现:经济增长水平、食品工业产值与食品安全风险度之间存在着"倒U型"曲线关系,在"倒U型"曲线拐点到来之前,随着经济增长水平的提高、食品工业规模的扩大,食品安全风险度是上升的;而当突破拐点之后,食品安全风险度是不断下降的。此外,食品工业发展程度、人均受教育年限与食品安全风险度存在着负相关关系。食品安全库兹涅茨曲线假说为现阶段中国食品安全问题的解决提供了有益的政策启示。