汇率波动对国际贸易的影响综述

自布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来,在国际贸易领域关于汇率波动对进出口贸易影响这一问题的讨论始终没有停止。然而以往文献过多关注汇率水平的影响,忽视汇率波动的影响。为此,将汇率波动对进出口贸易的影响分理论层面和实证层面两个部分对文献进行梳理和总结,通过对已有文献的总结和评述,指出国内关于汇率波动对国际贸易影响研究中的不足以及今后的研究方向。     

我国出口企业货币风险管理策略的实证分析

文章通过细分2008年1月至2010年9月时间区间内的人民币汇率数据,在人民币汇率波动的不同情况下实证研究我国企业的货币风险管理策略。结论表明对于货币风险采取完全自由放任的态度将给企业带来最大的货币风险,而在汇率波动的不同情况下,合理使用货币期货合约或期权合约能够明显降低企业现金流的波动,从而实现企业期末净利润的最大化,同时为企业带来一定的收益。     

货币国际化趋势及人民币国际化发展进程

货币国际化化如今已在世界经济全球化的背景下成为大国国际贸易与经济发展的普遍趋势,首先针对目前世界上已存在的四种广泛流通的国际货币,剖析国际货币形成的主要流程及发展阶段。与此同时,通过对比中澳两国货币近几年来的汇率变化和中国政府近期制定的外汇相关政策深入分析汇率的波动以及货币回流机制对货币国际化进程所造成的多方面影响。     

货币错配波动的集聚性及与汇率、利率的联动性——基于向量TGARCH-BEKK模型

中国货币错配波动具有明显的非对称性,不具有尖峰性,但具有长记忆特性.向量TGARCH-BEKK模型的分析结果表明:货币错配程度减弱时其波动集聚性更强,波动集聚性滞后效应持续约6～7年;货币错配受到汇率冲击的溢出效应比利率冲击大;1994年汇率改革后货币错配与汇率呈弱化趋势,但货币错配与利率的联动性增强;亚洲金融危机期间的货币错配与汇率联动性明显增强,金融危机冲击对贷币错配产生倒"U"型脉冲效应;总体来看,人民币汇率升值虽然不利于货币错配波动集聚性的弱化,但可以减弱国家层面货币错配程度.     

汇率升值和货币工资增长互为替代?——基于人民币汇率对工资决定的影响效果分析

汇改后人民币汇率波动成为一种常态,人民币的逐步升值及其波幅的扩大对国内工资决定会有何影响,这对于我国未来产业政策的制定和经济增长方式的转变有重要的意义,同时也影响着央行货币政策和汇率政策的协调实施。本文先对国内外有关汇率和工资关系的理论及实证研究文献进行了梳理与汇总,然后基于Lindbeck(1979)关于小型开放经济体的工资决定模型,利用我国1978-2010年相关指标的时间序列数据,从实证上考察了人民币汇率变化及其波动率变化对总体层面及分行业工资变动的影响效果。本文研究结果印证了McKinnon提出的"长期间汇率升值和货币工资增长互为替代"的观点,无论用何指标度量汇率,人民币升值对总体层面和行业工资增长均有显著的抑制效果;人民币名义有效汇率的波动对工资增长有较为显著的正面影响。     

论跨境贸易人民币结算对我国外贸企业的影响

受全球金融危机的影响,国际贸易主要结算货币美元和欧元汇率波动较大,我国外贸企业跨境贸易汇率风险加大.因此,跨境贸易人民币结算的开展,对我国外贸企业具有重要的现实意义.本文简要分析了跨境贸易人民币结算对我国外贸企业的影响,并提出相应对策.     

汇率水平与波动程度对外国直接投资的影响研究

本文首先采用外销比例指标,构建理论模型以研究汇率变动对不同类型FDI的影响,然后使用跨国数据进行实证检验,最后对人民币汇率的波动效应进行经验分析。研究表明,当东道国货币升值时,处于技术优势的跨国公司增加对外直接投资;双边实际汇率的波动程度对FDI的影响很弱,这是由于跨国公司采取了有效的汇率风险管理;由于汇率风险是影响外资企业出口的关键因素,实际有效汇率的波动程度对出口导向型FDI的影响较大;人民币升值和扩大人民币汇率的波动区间对市场导向型FDI的影响较弱,却能够显著促进出口导向型FDI。     

汇率水平与波动程度对外国直接投资的影响研究

本文首先采用外销比例指标,构建理论模型以研究汇率变动对不同类型FDI的影响,然后使用跨国数据进行实证检验,最后对人民币汇率的波动效应进行经验分析。研究表明,当东道国货币升值时,处于技术优势的跨国公司增加对外直接投资;双边实际汇率的波动程度对FDI的影响很弱,这是由于跨国公司采取了有效的汇率风险管理;由于汇率风险是影响外资企业出口的关键因素,实际有效汇率的波动程度对出口导向型FDI的影响较大;人民币升值和扩大人民币汇率的波动区间对市场导向型FDI的影响较弱,却能够显著促进出口导向型FDI。     

论跨境贸易人民币结算对我国外贸企业的影响

受全球金融危机的影响，国际贸易主要结算货币美元和欧元汇率波动较大，我国外贸企业跨境贸易汇率风险加大。因此，跨境贸易人民币结算的开展，对我国外贸企业具有重要的现实意义。本文简要分析了跨境贸易人民币结算对我国外贸企业的影响，并提出相应对策。     

人民币升值对中国对外贸易的影响及对策

作为一种货币对另一种货币的比价,汇率是一国进行国际经济活动时最重要的综合性价格指标,在国际贸易中有着非常重要的作用。随着中国经济与世界经济的融合度的不断提高,人民币汇率的变动对中国国际贸易的影响越来越突出。     

Trade,transport costs and trade imbalances: An empirical examination of international markets and backhauls

The US trade deficit has been growing for over 25 years and has been accompanied by enlarging freight rate differentials. While traditional models of trade have ignored these gaps assuming symmetry across all bilateral trade costs, the specific linkages between trade imbalances and international transportation costs have remained unexplored. Given the current trade policies, the implications arising from the endogenous adjustment of bilateral transport costs to policy-induced changes in the US trade deficit are of particular importance. To break new ground on this issue, we develop and estimate a model of international trade and transportation that accounts for the effects of persistent trade imbalances. The theoretical results are supported by our empirical analysis and indicate that bilateral transport costs adjust to a country's trade imbalance. The implication is that a unilateral import policy, for example, will cause spillover effects into the bilaterally integrated export market. To illustrate, we use our empirical results to simulate the anticipated spillover effect from the Chinese ban on waste imports. We find that China's ban and the projected 1.5% rise in the US trade deficit will lead to not only a 0.77% reduction of transport costs charged on US exports to China but also a 0.34% increase in transport costs on US imports from China.     

Payment choice in international trade: Theory and evidence from cross‐country firm‐level data

When trading across borders, firms choose between different payment contracts. Theoretically, this should allow firms to trade‐off differences in financing costs and enforcement across countries. This paper provides evidence for this hypothesis employing firm‐level data from a large number of developing countries. As predicted, international transactions are more likely paid after delivery when financing costs in the source country are high and when contract enforcement is low. We extend the theory and also show empirically that the more complex an industry is, the more important is contract enforcement and the less important are financing costs for the contract choice.     

Trade Costs,Resource Reallocation and Productivity in Developing Countries

New trade models with heterogeneous firms suggest that international trade plays an important role in reallocating resources from low to high productivity plants. We use plant‐level data from Chile and measures of trade costs that include tariffs and freight rates to analyze the importance of this trade‐induced market selection process. We find that trade costs affect the reallocation process through the various channels predicted by the theory; however, the effects are approximately half of those reported for the US. We also find that while the tariff rate is responsible for preventing some of the reallocation, transportation costs have the most limiting role in terms of the number of channels affected.     

Trade Costs and the Open Macroeconomy

Trade costs are known to be a major obstacle to international economic integration. Following the approach of New Open Economy Macroeconomics, this paper explores the effects of international trade costs in a micro‐founded general equilibrium model that allows for different degrees of exchange rate pass‐through. Trade costs are shown to create an endogenous home bias in consumption and the model performs well in matching empirical trade shares for OECD countries. In addition, trade costs reduce cross‐country output and consumption correlations, and they magnify exchange rate volatility. Trade costs turn a monetary expansion into a beggar‐thy‐neighbor policy.     

The law of one price revisited: How do goods market frictions generate large and volatile price deviations?

This paper analyzes the role of goods market frictions in accounting for the large and volatile deviations from the Law of One Price (LOP) in a framework of flexible prices. We draw a distinction between the goods market frictions that are required to consume tradable goods (e.g., distribution costs) and those that are necessary for international transactions (e.g., trade costs). We find that trade costs generate LOP deviations by introducing a no-arbitrage band, while distribution costs cause the price to deviate from the LOP by affecting the probability that trade will occur, given the band. We then conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to show that real exchange rate volatility is positively associated with trade costs, but negatively related to distribution costs. This effect depends on the interplay of trade costs and distribution costs, as they work in opposite directions when creating arbitrage opportunities.     

人民币汇率变动影响中国贸易条件机制研究

人民币汇率变动影响中国贸易条件及其机制是一个需要将理论与实证结合起来研究的问题,因为其中汇率变动对贸易条件的变化影响较大,衡量一国对外贸易中竞争能力的三类贸易条件均为反映资源配置效率及福利水平高低的指标。以人民币实际有效汇率变动的实证为例,分析汇率变动对贸易条件影响的内在机制,得出的结论是人民币实际有效汇率对中国价格贸易条件影响显著,对收入贸易条件影响不显著。     

Trade and Technology from a Schumpeterian Perspective

This paper attempts to implement empirically a Schumpeterian model of international trade. After briefly discussing the literature on trade and technology, we formulate a model in which ‘real’ factors such as R&D expenditures, investment and wage costs have an impact on bilateral trade flows between advanced economies. We also take into account the effect of exchange rate differences. The model is empirically estimated on sectoral data for nine OECD countries. We find that what determines competitiveness differs by sector. In many sectors, either R&D expenditures or wage costs are important. The results for investment indicate a weaker role. Consistent with the Marshall-Lerner logic, we find that the sign of exchange rate changes varies by sector. We conclude the paper by a discussion of the relevance of the results for ‘technology-based’ theories of international trade.     

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Regulation on International Transportation

Incorporating pollution emissions from international transportation into a model of strategic trade and environmental policies, we investigate the effect of trade liberalization and environmental regulation on national welfare and the environment. Our model includes imperfectly competitive markets for international transportation and final products. We find that trade liberalization may reduce each country's welfare unless some level of environmental regulation on international transportation is in place. When international trade is liberalized initially, a mutual increase in the common emission tax rates may improve each country's welfare. However, when international trade is highly protected initially, imposing an emission tax may reduce welfare.     

The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries.     

Moving beyond the iceberg model: The role of trade relations in endogenizing transportation costs in computable general equilibrium models

Modeling trade and transportation costs is an essential part of multiregional or spatial computable general equilibrium models where interregional trade plays an important rolein shaping economic activity. The majority of such models use the iceberg trade cost approach where part of the produced output (representing the material costs of transportation) is assumed to melt away during transportation. There are a few models which employ a more refined approach with an explicit transportation sector providing transportation services which are then used to ship goods between locations. In this paper we show that this approach, although much more convenient than the iceberg approach, still lacks full usability due to the fact that markets, hence prices are defined at the regional level and as a result, transportation costs can not be endogenous at the trade relation level. Moreover, under regional level market clearing the iceberg and the more detailed approach are equivalent. We propose to refine the definition of market equilibrium and move it to the trade relation level. Using this approach we can gain full advantage of the explicit transport sector in the model with respect to trade cost evolution. We show through simulations that refining the way trade costs are modelled indeed gains new insights, and that moving the market definition to the trade relational level leads to qualitative changes in the effect of labor supply shocks on main model variables. The paper also presents a method to estimate a SAM by reallocating data from standard industries to a transportation sector which is then consistent with the model setup. This SAM can be used to calibrate the refined model with a detailed transportation sector.