Foundations of neo-Bayesian statistics

We study an axiomatic model of preferences, which contains as special cases Subjective Expected Utility, Choquet Expected Utility, Maxmin and Maxmax Expected Utility and many other models. First, we give a complete characterization of the class of functionals representing these preferences. Then, we show that any such functional can be represented as a Choquet integral

where is the canonical mapping from the space of bounded Σ-measurable functions into the space of weak^*-continuous affine functions on a weak*-compact, convex set of probability measures on Σ. Conversely, any preference relation defined by means of such functionals satisfies the axioms of the model we study. Different properties of the capacity give rise to different models. Our result shows that the idea of Choquet integration is general enough to embrace all the models mentioned above. In doing so, it widens the range of applicability of well-known procedures in robust statistics theory such as the Neyman–Pearson lemma for capacities [P.J. Huber, V. Strassen, Minimax tests and the Neyman–Pearson lemma for capacities, Ann. Statist. 1 (1973) 251–263], Bayes' theorem for capacities [J.B. Kadane, L. Wasserman, Bayes' theorem for Choquet capacities, Ann. Statist. 18 (1990) 1328–1339] or of results like the Law of Large numbers for capacities [F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, A strong law of large numbers for capacities, Ann. Probab. 33 (2005) 1171–1178].     

Tests for the Poolability of Panel Data in the Presence of Unknown Heteroskedasticity: an Asymptotic Extension of ANOVA

This paper presents asymptotic tests for the poolability of panel data in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Also, the test statistic is compared with the well-known F -test statistic using simulation studies. The test statistic is regarded as an asymptotic extension of ANOVA in the sense that the statistic measures the distance between the null and the alternative models using the idea of ANOVA. Simulation studies show that the real size of the test statistic is in the neighbourhood of the nominal size, though that of the F -statistic is quite different. Even when the error term is independent and identically and normally distributed, its real size is near the nominal size and the power is not much inferior to that of the F -statistic when the sample size is large.
JEL Classification Numbers: C12, C23.     

Non-cooperative games with a continuum of players whose payoffs depend on summary statistics

Summary. We consider static non-cooperative games with a continuum of small players whose payoffs depend on their own actions and finitely many summary statistics of the aggregate strategy profile. We prove the existence of an equilibrium in pure strategies without any convexity restrictions on payoffs or the common action space. We show that this result applies to a broad class of monopolistic competition models. Received: April 13, 2001; revised version: December 18, 2001 RID="*" ID="*" The result in this paper generalizes a result in my PhD dissertation supervised by M. Ali Khan and Joe Harrington. I thank them for support and encouragement. I also thank Sung Kim, Bruce Nanney, Ashvin Rajan, Kali Rath, and an anonymous referee for comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Regulation through a revenue contest

This paper proposes a mechanism for the regulation of duopolies a revenue contests among the firms. Under the mechanism, the firm with the lower revenue is to pay a penalty to the firm with the higher revenue proportional to the difference between their revenues. In a homogenous good Cournot duopoly with convex cost and demand functions, the mechanism implements the optimal outcome when the firms have symmetric costs. When one firm is more efficient, the mechanism leads to increased social surplus under a large set of parameters. We also consider extensions that involve cost uncertainty, repeated games and differentiated goods.     

Welfare and product testing by a regulated monopolist

This paper studies a monopoly firm with the ability to conduct costly pre-market testing of its product in order to predict how safe this product is to consume. While there are private incentives to test, the amount of testing effort supplied by a monopolist need not be optimal. In a model which allows for an imperfect system of liability, we characterize and compare the allocations of testing effort and output at the full social optimum, the pure monopoly solution, and the second-best regulated optimum wherein the regulator chooses testing effort and the monopolist chooses output and price.     

Advertising in demand systems: testing a Galbraithian hypothesis

In this paper we argue that the influence of advertising upon the inter-product distribution of demand is a system-wide phenomenon which is investigated better through a demand equation system rather than through single equation methods. Attention is focused upon a dynamic version of Deaton Muellbauer's AIDS model modified to include advertising terms. Within this framework using data on consumer's non-durable expenditure in the UK we carry out a preliminary test of Galbraith' hypothesis that advertising may affect the composition of aggregate consumer demand.     

合同欺诈与合同诈骗罪

1999年10月1日正式实施的《中华人民共和国合同法》对于规范社会主义市场经济秩序必将发挥非常重要的作用,合同欺诈行为与全中诈骗行为是妨害市场交易的大敌,必须依法铲除。本以《刑法》和《合同法》的依据,分别讨论合同欺诈和合同诈骗行为的现实状况及法律特征,并就如何在实践中界两种违法行为谈些看法。     

Controlling utilization through a selective participation PPO

A selective participation PPO, which blends the fee-for-service payment system with the HMO concept, may offer an effective approach to controlling dental care costs.     

生产性服务业的分类统计及其结构优化——基于生产性服务业与制造业互动的视角

本文通过对新古典经济学生产函数的拓展分析,提出了划分生产性服务业的具体分类标准,结合我国第三产业统计分类内容,重新聚合了体现为"人流"、"资金流"、"知识流"、"信息流"、"物流"的生产性服务业的具体统计范围.在此基础上,运用替代性数据测算了我国生产性服务业的总量与结构特征;最后,从生产性服务业的结构优化角度,区分了外生生产性服务业和内生生产性服务业,并提出了进一步研究的基本问题.     

Cost comparison of prostaglandin analogues: a Canadian population-based analysis

Abstract

Objectives: Glaucoma is a fairly common disease, however, little is known about the costs associated with prostaglandin analogues (PAs). The costs between the three available PAs (Lumigan® (bimatoprost), Xalatan® (latanoprost) and Travatan® (travoprost)) were compared as monotherapy and when adjunctive therapy was used.

Methods: From the Québec drug claims database, all patients who used these drugs for 1 full year were identified. From the Ministry of Health (MoH) perspective, the average cost for all reimbursed costs (drug costs and pharmacist fees) were calculated. Those costs plus the patient out-of-pocket copayments were used for the payer + user (PU) perspective.

Results: Data from 4,653 patients were analysed (3,606 on monotherapy and 1,047 on combination treatment with adjunctive therapy), 59.7% were females, and the average age was 72.6 ± 10.4 years. MoH perspective costs were $410 ± $167 for bimatoprost, $381 ± $145 for latanoprost and $298 ± $121 for travoprost (all differences p<0.001), for patients on monotherapy. Costs of combination treatment with adjunctive therapy were $786 ± $416, $686 ± $313, and $623 ± $521, respectively (travoprost significantly lower than each of the other two p<0.001, others=not significant). Results from the PU perspective were comparable.

Conclusions: Travoprost had the lowest cost, both as monotherapy and in conjunction with other glaucoma treatments. Further comparative pharmacoeconomic evaluation is warranted.     

A testing of the purchasing power parity hypothesis using a vector autoregressive model

The paper examines the hypothesis of purchasing power parity relations and the hypothesis of interest rates parity relations between the Japanese yen and the US dollar in a four-dimensional VAR (4-VAR) model, using the statistical technique developed by Johansen and Juselius (1992). The paper demonstrates that the so-called symmetry restriction on the PPP relationship holds not in a 3-VAR model but in the 4-VAR model, which indicates that a correct specification of the sampling distribution of data is important. The interest rates parity relation also holds in the 4-VAR model. The one-step prediction based on the ECM representation with such long-run relations outperforms the random walk model. These results are similar to those under the exchange rate control period (January 1974 to December 1980), which support the inclusion of this period in a whole sample period (January 1974 to December 2001).The author is very grateful to the referees and the editor of the journal for their variable and helpful comments. The first draft of the paper was presented at the autumn meeting of Japan Society of Monetary Economics in Oct 1999. The author is thankful to Eiji Ogawa for his helpful comments. The research was supported by Grant-in-Aid 13630104 of the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture of Japan and the Nomura Foundation for Social Science in 2000.First version received: March 2001/Final version received: April 2003     

Hedge fund index-engineering methodologies: a comparison and demonstration

We examine hedge fund (HF) index construction methodologies, by describing and analysing case studies from two well-known database vendors and evaluating them using numerical examples on the same dataset. Despite the fact that they follow a similar due diligence process, there are great differences in the index engineering practices arising from different quantitative techniques, even for indices in the same HF category. However, those quantitative techniques provide similar results. The differences are rather due to the use of different HF universes and different inclusion criteria. This article is the first to use actual numerical case studies to illustrate and compare how HF index engineering works. Having read it, the reader will have a good understanding of how HF indices are formed.     

Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies—Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States—for the period 1991–2004, for which we construct consistent and homogenous capital stock series. The main estimates rely on a structural approach where output of the whole economy is described by a Cobb–Douglas function and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is estimated allowing for possible breaks in the deterministic trend. The results confirm that over the considered period the potential gross domestic product growth has been faster in the United States than in other studied countries, reflecting a combination of higher labour contribution and faster TFP growth. Overall, this paper might help to shed some light on cross-country differences in economic performance over the recent period.     

Semiparametric estimation and testing in a model of environmental regulation with adverse selection

We consider a principal–agent model of environmental regulation with adverse selection, where firms are regulated through contracts. We show how the model allows to recover information on structural cost parameters. We use a semiparametric method to estimate consistently such parameters without specifying the distribution of the agents private information. We also show how to check for the specification of the econometric model, as well as auxiliary parametric assumptions, by means of specification tests based on nonparametric estimation. Results are used to discuss a selection of economic issues related to environmental regulation.First version received: August 2002/Final version received: November 2003Previous versions of this work were presented at Seminaire INRA-IDEI, Toulouse, the conference on Applications of semiparametric methods for micro-data, Tilburg, and seminars at UC Berkeley, University of Wisconsin–Madison, CREST, and INRA-LEA. We are indebted to participants, and especially Michael Visser, for their comments. We thank two referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Conseil Régional Midi-Pyrénées and from INRA is gratefully acknowledged.     

Rethinking corporate restructuring: a comparison of the four central approaches

Are strategic management, total quality management, business process re-engineering and computer-integrated manufacturing simply different approaches to corporate restructuring, or essentially similar ones in the underlying questions they pose? Where do these similarities and/or differences exist?.     

Designing, testing and implementing a trial dryland salinity credit trade scheme

This article describes implementation and outcomes of a credit trading trial focussed on dryland salinity in Victoria, Australia. In lieu of extant specified property rights, participants were invited to agree to obligations to provide groundwater recharge credits in exchange for pecuniary compensation. Participants were able to meet their obligations to supply groundwater recharge credits through land management actions resulting in monitored outcomes consistent with contractual obligations to reduce recharge. Alternatively, those in deficit were provided the option to obtain sufficient credits through market exchange. Surplus transferable recharge credits were produced by those participants who exceeded their own contractual obligations through improved land management. The paper describes the process of contract design and implementation. The trial involved a design and testing phase and an on-ground implementation phase. We describe composite methodologies deployed in the design and testing of alternative policy instruments and institutional arrangements, conducted prior to implementation. These involved community consultation, an attitudinal and behavioural survey, experimental economics and the development of a transparent and credible monitoring protocol. The conclusions drawn as a result of this analysis provided an empirical basis to implement the on-ground trial phase. Results of on-ground implementation are described. Finally, the methods and results of a Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) of the on-ground trial implementation are outlined. The BCA accounted for salinity damage reduction, forgone river flow, carbon sequestration, production benefits and costs. The result of BCA was an estimated net benefit.     

Cultivating the liberally educated mind through a signature program

In this article, the authors describe the Miller Upton Programs launched by the Beloit College Department of Economics in 2008. The programs aim to advance student understanding of the nature and causes of wealth and well-being. After describing the programs’ core elements, the authors discuss ways in which they leverage economic discourse as a means to advance liberal learning. They argue that programs of this kind advance liberal learning by cultivating skills required to engage the great questions of human flourishing, by fostering development of students’ economic imagination and by enhancing students’ ability to engage in genuine intellectual discovery. Details on the history and resource commitments for various program aspects are provided, allowing readers to identify program elements appropriate for replication at their home institutions.     

我国政府统计数据质量现状分析

政府统计数据的质量与国家宏观决策和企业微观决策的质量紧密相关,不正确和不完善的数据可能会导致决策的错误和失败。所以,现代社会对数据质量的关注更多。鉴于此,从我国政府统计数据质量的新进展和存在的问题两个方面,分析评价了中国政府统计数据质量现状。     

On the role of job assignment in a comparison of education systems

Abstract This paper re‐examines how differences in systems for financing education influence GDP by highlighting a neglected function of education policy: it affects the magnitude of gains from job assignment. When more productive jobs demand more skill, privately financed education can increase productivity gains from matching between jobs and skill by increasing the availability of highly educated people. This differs from the standard argument that publicly financed education increases the total amount of human capital by equalizing educational opportunities. It is shown that if job opportunities have large variations in productivity, education policy may face a serious efficiency–equity trade‐off.