Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China： 1997-2007

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China＇s improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.     

Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

Is Financial Development Another Source of Comparative Advantage？ Evidence from China

Using panel data for 29 provinces in China during 1990-2004, the present paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China＇s foreign trade. Three measures of comparative advantage in manufactured goods have been applied in our study, including Balassa＇s revealed comparative advantage, the net manufactured export index, and the Michaely index. We also use four indicators of financial development to identify the different functions of regional financial development, and to determine both size and efficiency features of financial institutions. The estimation results suggest that besides factor endowments, foreign firms and infrastructure, financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China ＇ s manufactured goods trade. Therefore, further reform of China＇s financial system should be encouraged to fully exploit the comparative advantage of China＇s foreign trade.     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

China＇s Inbound Tourist Revenue and Beijing Olympic Games 2008

During the process of economic globalization, China＇s inbound tourism has developed strongly. The present paper deals with one of the core issues of the international tourism industry： inbound tourist revenue. With the aid of conventional theories and the use of empirical tests, our study identifies some decisive factors that have influenced China＇s inbound tourist revenue through an analysis of the global and local conditions at macro and micro levels. The findings were then linked to the Olympic Games, the mega event having impacted international tourism. The findings were also linked to further.discussions and suggestions for the interactions between the Beijing Olympic Games 2008 and China＇s inbound tourism.     

China＇s Role in Global Climate Change Mitigation

China contributed a majority of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions in the first 11 years of this century The trajectory of emissions has changed radically since then, as China has irrplemented its Cancun 2010 commitment to reduce the 2005 emissions intensity of economic activity by 40-45percent by 2020. The change in trajectory has been reinforced by China＇s new model of economic growth, with its greater emphasis on equity in income distribution, consumption and services. The large-scale deployment of low emissions technology in China is lowering the cost of transition to a low carbon economy all over the world. China ＇ s new emissions trajectory improves the opportunity For the international community to meet the 2℃ climate target. It is essential that the changes in China are brought to account in shaping global mitigation ambition.     

Can China＇s Labor Comparative Advantage Last？

The paper discovers the source of china＇s labor comparative advantage by international comparison and demonstrates whether this advantage can last long from the aspects of both theories and facts. Based on analysis, the paper thinks the labor cost advantage in China mainly results from a low-cost labor level, which doesn＇t have any advantage actually compared to some other developing countries. According to the factor-price equalization theorem and empirical data, it＇s hard for China＇s labor cost advantage to last long .To keep it, China has to improve its labor efficiency and added value ratio.     

More effective utilization of FDI by China

Emerged from 1950＇s, with the huge emergences of multinational enterprises, foreign direct investment is developing along with international trade, and both of them present two main motivations of the world economy. Used to be one of the most closed countries, China has now been an indispensable part of the international economy since its economic reform in 1978. Normally big countries receive large amount of foreign direct investment, and as a huge country, China receives the top amount of FDI recently. For China, how to attract more FDI is less important than how to utilize FDI efficiently. If China uses FDI more efficiently, FDI could contribute more to its economic reform and developments. However, the efficient use of FDI is not an easy task for China with such large volume. This paper discusses the current situation of international capital flow and FDI to China, and then analyzes the issues concerning FDI in China from several different perspectives like terms of trade,, technology spillover, dual economy, domestic investment, MNEs in China, and spatial distribution of FDI in China, etc.. Finally, the paper gives conclusion of the situation of FDI in China and suggestion for the policies of efficient usage of FDI in China.     

Effectiveness of China＇s Monetary Policy and Reform of Its Foreign Exchange System

I. Introduction The background of this research is related to continued disputes between China and its trading partners, and to the resulting international pressure on China’s foreign exchange (Forex) system. As the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s foreign trade has expanded at a fantastic pace and its trade surplus with the rest of the world is huge and rising. This remarkable success has encountered increasing criticism, whether correct or not, from the countries that feel t…     

转变我国外贸发展模式的理性思考

改革开放以来，我国对外贸易取得了长足发展，贸易大国的地位得以确立。但随着国际、国内形势新的变化，我国传统的外贸发展模式也遇到了诸多挑战。文章在对我国传统外贸发展模式下取得的成就和遇到的问题进行分析的基础上，探讨了转变我国外贸发展模式的有效途径。     

从大国关系视野分析中国外交政策演变——以《概论》课“独立自主的和平外交政策”为例

新中国成立六十年来,中国外交政策经历了几次大的转变,从建国初"一边倒"外交方针到20世纪70年代的"一条线",从"一条线"到"韬光养晦",从"韬光养晦"到和谐世界。在《概论》课教学过程中,从大国关系视野分析中国外交政策演变轨迹,加强学生对中国始终奉行独立自主和平外交政策的认识和掌握。     

FDI投资区位的决定因素的实证研究——来自中国对外直接投资的经验数据

选取35个国家2001—2008年间的面板数据,以东道国市场、双边贸易、东道国劳动力成本以及教育水平等指标,采用固定效应分析方法对我国对外直接投资区位选择的决定因素进行实证检验。结论表明：我国对外直接投资区位选择受东道国市场规模的影响显著,但两者呈负向相关,即东道国市场规模越大,我国对其投资越少;同时,我国对出口及东道国的成人识字率也较为敏感。出口于东道国的贸易额度越大,东道国的成人识字率越高,我国对其直接投资就越多;东道国的工资水平与我国呈负弹性关系,东道国工资水平越高,我国对其直接投资就越少。     

当前我国企业发展境外直接投资的战略思考

随着我国“走出去”战略的实施和发展,近年来我国境外直接投资呈现快速增长态势。2008年由于受全球金融危机的影响,我国境外直接投资流量有所下降,这让我国在迎接机遇的同时也体验了风险和考验,但无论如何都不容我国选择逃避与沉默。面对动荡的国际市场,我国必须以积极的姿态,从容睿智地迎接挑战,谋求更大发展。     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

我国跨国公司汇率风险管理研究

随着经济全球化和国际资本双向流动的迅猛发展,我国跨国公司与世界各国的贸易联系日益频繁,外汇业务迅猛增长。尤其自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,我国跨国公司所面临的外汇风险日益突出。加之当前国际金融市场上汇率变动频繁,外汇风险给我国跨国公司的稳定发展带来了巨大的冲击,并引发了一系列值得我们关注的问题本文分析了我国跨国公司面临的外汇风险,以及现阶段我国跨国公司外汇风险管理存在的问题,并在此基础上从三个方面提出了积极的对策。     

澄清对中国对外援助的几种误解

进入新世纪特别是2004年以来,中国对外援助迅速兴起,援助范围与规模不断扩大,引起国际社会的广泛关注。中国是最近才开始对外援助的吗?中国的对外援助是要搞新殖民主义吗?中国的对外援助妨碍了受援国的发展了吗?中国的对外援助是为了驱逐西方国家吗?这些问题近年来备受西方媒体关注,甚至产生误解,文章对此一一进行了辨析。     

金融危机背景下中国外汇储备管理战略探析

至2003年以来,我国国际收支持续顺差,外汇储备呈上升趋势,截止目前中国外汇储备已突破2.1万亿美元的大关。次贷危机乃至全球性金融危机的爆发,美元贬值直接对中国外汇储备的安全性产生威胁。本文首先对金融危机背景下中国外汇储备的现状进行分析,指出美元贬值给中国外汇储备带来的风险,重点探讨应对这种危害的战略,主要从短期和长期战略角度,提出采取减持美元政府债券、人民币区域化、币种多元化等多种对策以保证外汇储备管理的安全性。     

利用外资对我国制度创新的重要意义

利用外资是我国对外开放的重要组成部分。利用外资不仅弥补了我国资金短缺，引进了先进的技术、管理经验和中高端人才，更重要的是对新时期制度创新产生了全方位的推动作用：一是改革开放初期利用外资相关法律法规的制定和实施成为推动市场化改革的萌芽；二是逐步树立了按国际惯例办事的意识，自发地形成了现代市场经济的意识；三是改善我国投资环境的努力，促进了经济体制改革的启动和深化，包括价格改革、财税改革、投资改革、金融外汇改革、内外贸流通改革等；四是推动了我国的所有制和产权制度改革，引入了股份合作等新的公有制实现形式；五是推动了企业制度创新；六是推动了收入分配体制改革：七是推动了政府职能转变。     

中国经济发展的"悖论"与"统一"——兼论中国外贸结构与产业结构的关系

本文以工业制成品作为分析研究对象,依据SITC一级分类统计数据,对比分析了 1980～2007年工业制成品贸易结构与产业结构变化情况,重点阐述了中国外贸结构与产业结构之间"悖论"与"统一"相伴而生的发展关系.最后指出,如果剔除中国出口结构中外商直接投资作用的影响,中国的贸易结构与产业结构还没有实现真正意义上的良性循环!