卖空威胁、公司融资扩张战略与违规行为

利用中国推出融资融券业务的准自然实验机会,本文以2010—2016年中国A股上市公司为样本,使用双重差分模型研究放松卖空限制对企业违规行为的影响。研究发现,融券业务允许市场中的知情投资者挖掘企业负面信息进行卖空,形成有效的卖空威胁,从而震慑企业,显著降低其发生违规行为的概率。具体而言,卖空交易行为跟企业违规行为的严重程度正相关;卖空交易行为能显著降低企业的超额收益率;当企业有进一步融资需求或并购扩张战略需求时,卖空威胁对企业的震慑作用更为显著。研究表明,融券业务带来的卖空威胁是企业外部监管的重要机制。     

卖空与盈余质量——来自财务重述的证据

本文利用2006-2014年中国A股上市公司数据,运用双重差分和安慰剂检验,考察卖空对财务重述的影响。研究发现,加入融券标的后,相较于不能被卖空的公司,融券标的公司发生财务重述的可能性显著降低,这种治理作用在金融市场欠发达和治理水平较差的公司更加明显。进一步研究发现,卖空机制可以通过增加激励合约的有效性和吸引分析师跟踪来减少财务重述。最后,使用可操控应计项目和是否报告微利作为盈余质量的代理变量进行稳健性检验,发现上述结论依然成立。因此,放开卖空限制,有助于改善上市公司信息披露质量和完善公司治理结构。     

卖空与创新:A股公司融券试点的证据

本文依托中国A股市场2010年开始实施的融券试点,在通过多时点双重差分和倾向得分匹配等计量方法控制内生性的基础上,实证检验了卖空对上市公司创新行为的促进作用.结果 表明:(1)加入融券标的后,卖空公司的创新数量和创新质量都有显著提高;(2)对于金融市场欠发达、治理水平较差的公司,这种作用更明显;(3)在使用融券余额作为卖空势力的测度并用ETF基金持股比例作为工具变量进一步控制内生性以后,以上结论仍然成立.卖空有助于降低创新企业的信息不对称性和加强对经理人的薪酬激励,进而促进了企业的创新.因此,取消卖空限制将有助于中国企业的创新和资本市场的健康稳定发展.     

卖空制度对企业融资的影响研究——基于融券卖空制度的检验

基于中国2010年实施融资融券制度的背景,利用分批扩容的准自然实验环境,检验卖空制度对企业融资的影响。结果发现：卖空制度的引入对企业外源融资能够起到抑制作用,这来源于外部治理作用所带来的过度融资的减少、市场信息反馈效应所带来的企业融资——股票价格敏感度的提升,以及融资成本的提高。进一步分析发现,企业外源融资的减少是有效率的,能够提高企业资源配置效率,促进资本结构动态调整。因此,卖空制度有助于抑制企业的过度融资,提高企业资源配置效率,对资本市场的稳定运转和完善大有裨益。     

Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance

A combined treatment of corporate finance and corporate governance is herein proposed. Debt and equity are treated not mainly as alternative financial instruments, but rather as alternative governance structures. Debt governance works mainly out of rules, while equity governance allows much greater discretion. A project-financing approach is adopted. I argue that whether a project should be financed by debt or by equity depends principally on the characteristics of the assets. Transaction-cost reasoning supports the use of debt (rules) to finance redeployable assets, while non-redeployable assets are financed by equity (discretion). Experiences with leasing and leveraged buyouts are used to illustrate the argument. The article also compares and contrasts the transaction-cost approach with the agency approach to the study of economic organization.     

Short Selling and Efficient Sets

The effect of short selling on the composition and location of the efficient set has been analyzed in a variety of ways. However, the situation typically facing investors where the initial margin requirement is less than 100 percent and the riskfree interest rate that is paid on the short proceeds is less than the rate paid on initial margin has not previously been considered. The Elton-Gruber-Padberg algorithm (1976, 1978), subject to certain modifications, is shown here to be capable of identifying the efficient set under such conditions.     

行为金融学与公司财务

在公司决策中，经理人和董事会成员需要识别公司价值最大化过程中的两个主要行为学阻碍，一个在公司内部，另一个在公司外部。     

Postmodern Corporate Finance

One of the core tenets of modern finance theory is that corporations create value by producing operating rates of return on capital that are greater than the cost of capital. “Postmodern” corporate finance, while reaffirming the importance of earning an adequate return on capital, also attempts to restore at least part of the traditional corporate emphasis on top-line growth that prevailed before the intense focus on returns by modern shareholder value advocates. One important reason for the heightened emphasis on growth in addition to returns is that most rate-of-return measures used by companies and investors are based on conservative accounting practices that make old assets look more profitable than new ones, thereby discouraging investments in growth. This article introduces a new return measure called “Gross Business Return” that, when evaluated against a Required Return framework that reflects the level of current stock prices, has a stronger correlation with how companies are valued by the stock market. Moreover, in reviewing historical returns over time for both the market and specific industries, the author's research suggests that the market appears to demand considerably lower current returns than those implied by traditional weighted average cost of capital (WACC) approaches. And to the extent corporate executives rely on WACC, they could be passing up valuable growth opportunities. To help evaluate tradeoffs between growth and return, the author introduces a cash-based measure of corporate economic profit called Residual Cash Earnings. Unlike most traditional return and economic profit measures, Residual Cash Earnings, when expressed as a percentage of sales, provides a way for corporate managers to identify growth opportunities that, while producing current returns lower than WACC, are likely to add value over a multi-year time horizon. These new measures and analytical tools are suitable for strategic planning, budgeting, resource allocation, performance measurement, and rewards. Consistent application of these principles across these management processes provides a framework for constantly rebalancing the emphasis on growth and return to adapt to changes in the economy, industry, and competitive landscape.     

外部融资与企业成长关系的实证研究

在金融发达国家，外部融资对行业成长有明显促进作用。实证分析显示，我国企业要想获得更快、更好的发展，一方面要充分利用各种融资渠道，以便提高外部融资在总资产中的比重，另一方面要注意各种融资方式的合理搭配，防止因债务融资与权益融资之比过高而给企业今后的总资产增长带来不利影响。     

卖空限制与收益可预测性——A股融资融券制度的证据

基于A股市场融资和融券余额的巨大差距,本文拓展了Hong et al.(2016)的理论模型,在融券端和融资端分别找到了影响股票收益率的变量:融券比率(融券余额/流通市值)和融资回补天数(融资比率/日均换手率)。进一步,本文利用组合价差法和Fama-MacBeth横截面回归法,实证检验了A股市场中融券比率与融资回补天数解释和预测股票收益率的能力。实证结果表明,在存在融券限制条件下,融券比率相比融券回补天数(融券比率/日均换手率)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格高估程度的看法,根据融券比率构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.58%的显著收益;而由于融资约束相对较少,融资回补天数相比融资比率(融资余额/流通市值)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格低估程度的看法,根据融资回补天数构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.28%的显著收益。实证结果与本文存在融券数量限制下的理论模型相符,且该收益率不能被多因子模型和常规股票特征所解释。     

Short Selling and Intraday Price Pressures

We study episodes of significant intraday downward price pressures in individual stocks and find that price declines during such episodes are driven mainly by liquidity demanding nonshort volume. Although short sellers during these price pressure episodes are also active and somewhat exacerbate the magnitude of price declines, their influence on prices is secondary to that of nonshort sellers. As such, our findings are inconsistent with the recently reignited allegations of systematic trading abuses caused solely by short sellers and might shed light on the debate regarding the need to reinstitute short selling restrictions.     

关于企业理财的观念问题

“资金运动”理财观念是计划经济时期经济理论界对企业财务本质认识的反映,但它没有真正实现企业财务的本质尤其是进入２１世纪以后,其局限性更为明显。新世纪呼唤更新观念“资本营运”理财观念全面体现了公司财务的本质特征,与“资金运动”理财观念相比较,“资本营运”呈现出显著的特征。在“资产营运”理财观念的作用下,公司摆脱了“资金运动”的束缚,既可以对内投资,又可以对外投资;即可以生产经营一般商品,又可以生产经     

卖空限制与收益可预测性——A股融资融券制度的证据

基于A股市场融资和融券余额的巨大差距,本文拓展了Hong et al.(2016)的理论模型,在融券端和融资端分别找到了影响股票收益率的变量:融券比率(融券余额/流通市值)和融资回补天数(融资比率/日均换手率)。进一步,本文利用组合价差法和Fama-MacBeth横截面回归法,实证检验了A股市场中融券比率与融资回补天数解释和预测股票收益率的能力。实证结果表明,在存在融券限制条件下,融券比率相比融券回补天数(融券比率/日均换手率)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格高估程度的看法,根据融券比率构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.58%的显著收益;而由于融资约束相对较少,融资回补天数相比融资比率(融资余额/流通市值)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格低估程度的看法,根据融资回补天数构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.28%的显著收益。实证结果与本文存在融券数量限制下的理论模型相符,且该收益率不能被多因子模型和常规股票特征所解释。     

Short Selling Behavior and Mad Money

We examine 1,234 buy recommendations from Jim Cramer's Mad Money television show. Consistent with prior research, we report positive abnormal returns immediately after buy recommendations, followed by a reversal, indicative of an overpricing event. We also find a marked increase in short selling. Our results show a positive association between shorting and the buy recommendations even after controlling for factors shown in the literature to influence shorting. We do not find similar effects after sell recommendations. These results suggest that short sellers act to exploit short‐term overpricing arising from behavioral biases of some investors.     

Short Selling and Firm Operating Performance

While it is well known that short selling predicts future negative stock price performance, it has not been established whether short selling predicts future negative operating performance. We find that firms in the top decile of increases in short interest (an increase of about four percentage points) experience a 21% subsequent decline in operating performance relative to matched control firms. The greater the increase in short interest, the larger the decline in operating performance. The results are robust to alternative performance measures and to sample splits based on firm size. These results suggest that short interest may reflect private information about firm fundamentals rather than other factors that may drive stock price changes.     

Short Selling and the Weekend Effect for NYSE Securities

Using short-sale transactions data, we examine the relation between short selling and the weekend effect. We do not find that short selling is more abundant on Monday than on Friday, even for stocks that have higher Friday returns. We find that short sellers execute more short-sale volume during the middle of the week, and that the positive correlation between short selling and returns on Monday is greater, on average, than the correlation on the other days of the week. Our results are robust to subsamples of stocks with larger weekend effects and stocks that do not have listed options.     

卖空机制、双重治理与公司违规——基于市场化治理视角的实证检验

不同于以往基于制度监管或内部治理视角的研究,本文从市场化治理视角探讨了卖空机制对公司违规行为的影响效应.采用部分可观测Bivariable Probit模型和双重差分模型实证发现,卖空机制显著降低了标的公司的违规倾向,提升了违规稽查概率,且缩短了违规稽查时间.同时,标的公司违规发生年份的融券力度明显增加,这表明卖空者确实具有信息优势且对违规行为更为敏感.机制检验揭示,卖空机制通过治理效率和信息效率两条路径对违规行为发挥双重治理作用,即卖空机制强化了内部治理中大股东和独立董事对违规行为的监督干预,从而抑制了事前违规倾向;同时也增加了资本市场中的分析师关注及违规负面信息传播效率,进而提升了事后违规稽查概率.本文还发现,卖空机制的违规治理效果受到违规监管环境(法制监管、内部控制和行业违规)和标的公司个体特征(公司成长性、市值规模和股价波动性)的调节作用影响.