Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI.     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

中国外汇储备规模与汇率关系的实证研究——基于人民币对国外主要币种汇率的分析

在目前中国外汇储备连年增长、人民币相对美元升值的背景下,运用协整、Granger因果关系检验等时间序列分析方法对外汇储备和人民币对国外主要币种汇率关系进行实证分析.研究结果表明,外汇储备与人民币对国外主要币种汇率之间不具有长期的协整性,但存在从外汇储备到人民币对国外主要币种汇率的单向因果关系.外汇储备的增长会引起人民币对国外主要币种汇率上升,短期内外汇储备的增长会对人民币汇率升值带来一定的压力.中国应考虑对人民币名义汇率的调整,从而缓解人民币的升值压力,抑制外汇储备的增长速度.     

人民币汇率与外商直接投资关系研究——基于上海市的数据

运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证方法研究上海市外商直接投资与人民币实际有效汇率及其波动之间的相关性,研究表明:上海市外商直接投资(FDI)与实际有效汇率(REER)、地区国内生产总值(GDP)和对外依存度(OPEN)显著正相关,与汇率波动(VOL)和平均工资(WAGE)显著负相关;短期内人民币实际有效汇率及其波动对上海市外商直接投资存在影响,且汇率的波动比其实际值的大小更能影响外商直接投资;实际有效汇率及其波动的冲击在零期对外商直接投资均没有影响,响应值在第四期达到最大,实际有效汇率对于外商直接投资的影响主要体现在投资时机的选择上。     

Firm‐Specific Learning and the Investment Behavior of Large and Small Firms*

We examine a model of size distribution and growth of firms where firms learn about idiosyncratic productivity parameters through their production experience. Aggregate shocks, by adding noise to learning at the firm level, can produce different responses across firms. In particular, young firms, which are smaller on average than older firms and more uncertain about their productivity, can “overreact” to aggregate shocks. Such differences across firm sizes and ages, which arise here in a model with perfect financial markets, are often attributed to financial frictions that hit small and large firms differently.     

Patterns and strategies of Foreign Direct Investment: the case of Japanese firms

This paper is to study globalization motives and strategies of Japanese manufacturing industries by analyzing the causes and patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Japanese manufacturing firms. We use regression analysis to determine internally driving-out factors and externally-inducing factors. Japanese FDI strategy has gone through three different stages; from natural resource-seeking investment in the 1950s and 1960s to market-expansion investment in the 1970s and 1980s and to a combination of cost-reducing (low-cost labor-seeking) investment and market-penetrating investment in the 1990s. Our findings show that Japanese FDI in Asia and other developing countries tends to be in labor-intensive sectors where Japanese firms are losing their comparative advantages at home. The main motive for FDI into these regions is low-cost resource seeking. On the other hand, Japanese FDI in the US and Europe tends to be knowledge-intensive sectors where Japanese firms attempt to internalize transaction and information costs by globalizing its production. The main motive for FDI into these regions is market-seeking.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

A model of inward foreign direct investment for Australia is estimated. Foreign direct investment is found to be positively related to economic and productivity growth and negatively related to foreign portfolio investment, trade openness, the exchange rate and the foreign real interest rate. Foreign direct investment is found to be a substitute for both portfolio investment and trade in goods and services. The exchange rate and the US bond rate affect foreign direct investment through the relative attractiveness of domestic assets. Actual foreign direct investment outperforms a model‐derived forecast in recent years, consistent with the liberalisation of foreign investment screening rules following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement.     

Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison

Using detailed data from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan, we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time, positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to the share of imported inputs in production. Important differences exist in investment endogeneity across high- and low-price-over-cost markup sectors, with investment in low-markup sectors often significantly more responsive to exchange rates. Cross-country differences in investment response are only partially explained by industrial organization arguments.     

外汇占款与通货膨胀率关系研究

基于货币数量理论研究外汇占款对通货膨胀的影响有重大意义。首先采用VAR模型和Granger因果关系模型研究外汇占款、货币供应量和通货膨胀率之间的相互影响状况,同时运用脉冲响应模型和方差分解技术研究变量受系统内变量冲击的反应和波动情况。其次进行货币冲销有效性检验,结果显示:央行的货币冲销政策完全有效,货币冲销力度大约为-0.6,货币冲销弹性大于1,从整体来看,货币冲销有效性呈现弱递减趋势。     

汇率波动对外国直接投资的影响——基于跨国公司的视角

汇率和外国直接投资一直是国际经济学中非常重要的两个论题,两者之间也存在着复杂的关系。本文利用简化的“两国两公司”模型论证了东道国汇率波动对跨国公司对外直接投资战略具有实质性影响。通过引入经济学家阿利伯的通货区域理论和“多国投资”模型进一步研究了汇率波动对外国直接投资的传导效应。     

技术引入和技术学习——外资企业与内资企业技术空间博弈

外商直接投资对我国造成了怎样的影响?很多研究局限在总体正负外溢效应的争论上,很少有学者关注区域因素和企业行为对外商直接投资技术外溢效应的影响。本文借鉴Wang与Blomstrom的内生理论模型建立思路,把外商直接投资技术外溢放在一个相互作用的系统中,同时引入“距离”因素,更全面地分析外资企业的技术引入行为和内资企业的技术学习行为。     

Expectations and the Dynamic Feedback between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth

This paper seeks to analyze the dynamic feedback between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth – larger FDI promotes higher GDP, while higher GDP can be achieved with higher levels of FDI. We use panels and a sample of 19 Latin American countries to estimate a dynamic FDI and a dynamic GDP equation that jointly characterize the evolution of both variables. We find that the dynamics of GDP and FDI are mostly driven by the expectations. Shocks of GDP or FDI were found to play no role affecting the dynamics.     

外商直接投资与安徽经济增长关系的实证分析

通过运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对外商直接投资与安徽经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:外商直接投资流入对促进安徽经济增长有促进作用,但安徽经济增长对吸引外商直接投资的作用是不显著的.安徽应积极采取相应措施,改善投资环境,吸引更多的外商直接投资.     

外商直接投资与经济增长之关系研究

本文从内生技术进步层面来探讨外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系。文章从干中学和知识外溢理论入手，首先对外商直接投资与经济增长的关系进行了探讨，进而运用内生增长理论模型，分析考察了中国将外商投资存量作为产生外溢效果的知识栽体对经济增长的作用，最终得出外商直接投资在一定程度上将促进经济增长的结论。     

中国出口贸易与对外直接投资关系的实证分析

根据母国或跨国公司投资的动机类型和发展阶段的不同,出口贸易与对外直接投资之间存在着三种关系:替代、互补和融合.本文在对对外直接投资与贸易关系的理论回顾的基础上,分别对发达国家和发展中国家出口贸易与对外直接投资关系进行了实证研究,并结合中国对外直接投资与贸易的实际,按公司投资的动机、类型、行业和发展阶段分析并论证对外直接投资与出口贸易的关系.同时,也证明了政府给予具有贸易创造能力的对外直接投资在政策上大力支持的必要性.     

外商在华直接投资问题研究综述

外商在华直接投资问题一直是学界关注的焦点,本文主要从外资的区位变化与聚集效应、外资的溢出效应与机制、外资对中国市场结构的影响及其投资战略分析、中国利用外资政策的有效性及其变迁路径、利用外资与产业政策的协调博弈、投资者甄别机制与国内企业自生能力的建立等几个方面对国内2003年的研究现状进行了系统梳理.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Growth,and the Human Capital Threshold: Evidence from US States*

The United States has experienced a dramatic increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years. While foreign firms bring immediate benefits of high‐paying jobs, data limitations have prevented detailed study on FDI's long‐term effects on the states receiving it. By creating a new stock measure of FDI based on employment, we are able to capture these long‐term effects. Results demonstrate that FDI has a greater impact on per capita output growth than domestic investment for US states that meet a minimum human capital threshold. Ironically, the most active states in the recruitment of FDI tend to fall below this threshold.     

论外汇投资中的估值效应及其经济影响

在国际金融交易活动快速增长的背景下,外汇投资的估值效应日益重要,并成为影响货币当局的收益率、外汇市场干预能力和对冲型货币政策可持续性的显著因素。利用现有统计数据,有三种方法推测一定时期内的估值效应,即间接推导法、直接推算法和解析法。本文详细剖析这三种方法。并用解析法详细测算了2001～2009年因汇率变动引起的中国外汇资产价值变动和外汇投资收益变动等估值效应。本文认为,估值效应还关系到对冲型货币政策的可持续性和货币错配问题。     

Another look at the Relationship between Telecommunications Investment and Economic Activity in the United States

Abstract

In a recent issue of this journal, Beil et al. (2005, hereafter, BFJ) examined the relationship between telecommunications investment and economic growth in the United States over the period 1947–1996. Based on results from Granger-Sims test, BFJ conclude that ‘… investment by telecommunications firms is caused by, but does not cause, economic activity, and the findings are robust across lag lengths’. However, using another version of the Granger causality test due to Toda & Yamamoto (1995) and the same data set transformed into natural logarithms, the evidence in this paper indicates a feedback where there was a bi-directional causality between telecommunications investment and economic growth. This seems to suggest that policies aimed at stimulating the US economy by accelerating investment in the telecommunications sector may be successful.     

Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in the Pacific Island countries

Achieving sustained high rates of economic growth in Pacific countries has proved incredibly challenging. Despite many being rich in natural resources, receiving high levels of foreign aid and being open to external trade, the economic growth rates of Pacific Island countries are the lowest and most volatile for all groups of developing countries. This paper examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Pacific region. Results from the estimation of a number of empirical models suggest that the impact of FDI is lower in Pacific countries than it is in host countries on average. A 10% increase in the ratio of FDI to host Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is associated with higher growth of about 2% in all countries on average. The impact in Pacific countries falls to between 0.1 and 0.4%. A number of explanations for this finding are provided including some empirical evidence that FDI displaces domestic investment in the region.