Apply with Caution: Introducing UK‐Style In‐Work Support in Germany*

Estimates of the labour supply effects of recent UK reforms in the area of direct taxes and benefits show that policy can have significant influence on the level of employment. We confirm this in a simulation of an in‐work support system introduced into the German tax and benefit system. Our simulation results suggest that introducing in‐work tax credits in Germany would increase the employment of single individuals by over 105,000 but would result in a reduction of labour supply among individuals living in couples by about 70,000, among both women and men. The result found for men is especially important as it is markedly different from all results for the UK, where the net response among men has always been found to be positive. Our estimation results call for a high degree of caution as far as ‘importing’ UK‐style tax credits to Germany is concerned. In‐work support based on family income would reinforce the existing work disincentives for secondary earners, reducing the employment levels of both men and women living in couples.     

In‐Work Credits in the UK and the US

In‐work credits grew in popularity worldwide during the late 1990s and 2000s as a means of reforming welfare systems in ways that could both encourage work and reduce poverty. This paper reviews the role of in‐work tax credits in the UK and the US, what is known and remains to be known about their impacts and distributional consequences, and the possibilities for reform. Evidence is clear that in‐work credits reduce poverty and can encourage lone parents to work, but have minimal impacts, in aggregate, on second earners. Spending on in‐work credits has grown in the UK, but there have been two major overhauls of the way these are structured so that, on current plans, the UK will not have an identifiable in‐work credit by 2023. In the US, in‐work assistance has grown in generosity and reach since the 1980s, thanks to broad political support for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the (less‐targeted) Child Tax Credit. Future debates in the UK should focus on the rise of in‐work poverty, particularly amongst couples, with some needed focus on the design of in‐work benefits, a debate where economic analysis and evidence should have a major role to play. In the US, the policy discussion should be about whether to increase substantially the EITC for those without children, and how best to maintain or expand the credit's generosity for those with children.     

Why Are Mothers Working Longer Hours in Austria than in Germany? A Comparative Microsimulation Analysis*

Labour force participation rates of mothers in Austria and Germany are similar; however, full‐time employment rates are much higher among Austrian mothers. In order to find out to what extent these differences can be attributed to differences in the tax‐transfer system, we perform a comparative microsimulation exercise. After estimating structural labour supply models for both countries, we interchange two important institutional characteristics of the two countries ‐ namely, (i) the definition of the tax unit within the personal income tax and (ii) the parental leave benefit scheme. As our analysis shows, differences in mothers’employment patterns can partly be explained by the different tax systems: while Germany has a system of joint taxation with income splitting for married couples, Austria taxes everyone individually, which leads to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners than in the German system.     

Comparing in‐work benefits and the reward to work for families with children in the US and the UK

The income transfer systems for low‐income families in the US and the UK try both to reduce poverty and to encourage work. In‐work benefits are a key part of both countries' strategies through the earned income tax credit and the working families' tax credit (and predecessors) respectively. But tax credits are only one part of the whole tax and welfare system. In‐work benefits, taxes and welfare benefits combine in both countries to provide good financial incentives for lone parents to do minimum‐wage work, but poorer incentives to increase earnings further. But direct comparisons of budget constraints hide important points of detail. First, not enough is known about what determines take‐up of in‐work benefits. Second, the considerable differences in assessment and payment mechanisms and frequency between EITC and WFTC mean that low‐income families in the US and the UK may respond very differently to apparently similar financial incentives.     

Response of Tax Credit Claims to Tax Enforcement: Evidence from a Quasi‐Experiment in Chile

Diesel in Chile receives different tax treatments depending on its use. If diesel is used in industrial activities, the diesel taxes paid can be fully used as a credit against VAT, but if it is used in freight or public transportation – basically trucks and buses – only a fraction of diesel taxes paid can be claimed as a tax credit for VAT payments. As a result of this different tax treatment, firms have incentives to use ‘tax‐exempted’ diesel in activities requiring ‘non‐tax‐exempted’ diesel. This tax wedge therefore generates an opportunity for tax evasion, especially for firms with multiple economic activities, one of them being transport. In this paper, we analyse the impact of a tax enforcement programme implemented by the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (IRS), where letters requiring information about diesel purchases and use and vehicle ownership were sent to around 200 firms in 2003. Using different empirical strategies to consider the non‐randomness of the selection of firms, the empirical results show consistently that firms receiving a letter decreased their diesel tax credits by around 10 per cent.     

Innovation quality of firms with the research and development tax credit

This paper examines innovation quality of U.S. research tax credit users (i.e., firms with currently earned research tax credits). Prior literature reports that the research tax credit is effective in increasing research and development (R&D) expenditures and reducing managers’ myopic behavior. However, little is known about the real (or economic) effect of R&D tax credits, as most of these findings have been based on estimated R&D tax credits rather than actual R&D tax credits. Additionally, some researchers and the government still have concerns about the real effect of R&D tax credits by criticizing the ambiguity and complexity of the tax codes (IRC Section 41). Therefore, I use actual R&D tax credits identified in firms’ 10-K and state R&D tax credits as identification tests to reduce endogeneity issues. My results indicate that research generating R&D tax credits contributes to better innovation quality and higher return volatility but lower pre-tax profitability. Overall, these findings imply that enacting the R&D tax credit provisions would trigger better innovation.     

Taxpayers' Behavioural Responses and Measures of Tax Compliance ‘Gaps’: A Critique and a New Measure

The work of Feldstein (1995 and 1999) has stimulated substantial conceptual and empirical advances in economists' approaches to analysing taxpayers' behavioural responses to changes in tax rates. Meanwhile, a largely independent literature proposing and applying alternative measures of tax compliance has also developed in recent years, which has sought to provide tax agencies with tools to identify the extent of tax non‐compliance as a first step to designing policies to improve compliance. In this context, measures of ‘tax gaps’ – the difference between actual tax collected and the potential tax collection under full compliance with the tax code – have become the primary measures of tax non‐compliance via (legal) avoidance and/or (illegal) evasion. In this paper, we argue that the tax gap as conventionally defined is conceptually flawed because it fails to incorporate behavioural responses by taxpayers. We show that conventional tax gap measures, which ignore the presence of behavioural responses, exaggerate the degree of non‐compliance. This potentially applies both to indirect taxes (such as the ‘VAT gap’) and direct (income) taxes. Further, where these conventional tax gap measures motivate reforms designed to increase the tax compliance rate, they will likely have a tax‐base‐reducing effect and hence generate a smaller increase in realised tax revenues than would be anticipated from the tax gap estimate.     

Childcare Assistance: Are Subsidies or Tax Credits Better?

We evaluate price subsidies and tax credits for childcare. We focus on partnered women's labour supply, household income and welfare, demand for childcare and government expenditure. Using Australian data, we estimate a joint, discrete structural model of labour supply and childcare demand. We introduce two methodological innovations – a more flexible quantity constraint that total formal and informal childcare hours are at least as large as the mother's labour supply and the explicit inclusion of maternal childcare in the utility function as a proxy for child development. We find that tax credits are more effective than subsidies in terms of increasing average hours worked and household income. However, tax credits disproportionately benefit wealthier and more educated women. Price subsidies, while less efficient, have positive redistributional effects.     

Dividend valuation,trading and transactions costs: the 1997 partial abolition of dividend tax credit repayments

Although UK resident tax-exempt shareholders lost the right to repayment of tax credits on dividends paid by UK resident companies in July 1997, they could continue to receive tax credit repayments in respect of dividends received from Irish resident companies until December 1998. In July 1997 the rate of tax credit on Irish companies' dividends was 21%, and this was reduced to 11% in December 1997. We obtain insights into the incentives and behaviour of UK tax-exempt investors in response to these changes in the relative ‘tax attractiveness’ of investments in Irish resident companies. We find that only at its highest rate, 21%, was the level of dividend tax credit on Irish companies' dividends sufficient to induce changes in UK tax-exempt shareholders' investment strategies; and that the propensity for dividend capture by tax-exempt investors is heightened when the dividend tax credit yield is of the order of 0.8 or more and dividend yield is of the order of 2.6% or more.     

Survey Under‐Coverage of Top Incomes and Estimation of Inequality: What is the Role of the UK's SPI Adjustment?

Survey under‐coverage of top incomes leads to bias in survey‐based estimates of overall income inequality. Using income tax record data in combination with survey data is a potential approach to address the problem; we consider here the UK's pioneering ‘SPI adjustment’ method that implements this idea. Since 1992, the principal income distribution series (reported annually in Households Below Average Income) has been based on household survey data in which the incomes of a small number of ‘very rich’ individuals are adjusted using information from ‘very rich’ individuals in personal income tax return data. We explain what the procedure involves, reveal the extent to which it addresses survey under‐coverage of top incomes and show how it affects estimates of overall income inequality. More generally, we assess whether the SPI adjustment is fit for purpose and consider whether variants of it could be employed by other countries.     

Universal Credit: A Preliminary Analysis of Its Impact on Incomes and Work Incentives*

Alongside a series of cuts that will reduce welfare spending by £18 billion per year by 2014–15, the UK government announced in November 2010 plans to integrate and simplify means‐tested welfare benefits and in‐work tax credits for working‐age adults into a single programme, to be known as Universal Credit and to be phased in from October 2013. The aims were to make it easier for claimants to claim benefits, to make the gains to work more transparent and to reduce the amount spent on administration and lost in fraud and error. More households will see entitlements rise from the move to Universal Credit considered in isolation than will see entitlements fall; in aggregate, entitlements will rise by nearly £1.1 billion a year. Low‐income families will see their entitlements rise by more than high‐income families, on average, and couples will gain more from the reform, on average, than single‐adult families, especially if there are also children in the family. In general, those facing the weakest incentive to work at all, or the weakest incentive to increase earnings, see their incentives strengthened, including those with very low earnings and hours worked per week and those who at present experience simultaneous withdrawal of multiple means‐tested benefits and tax credits. But a Council Tax Benefit that operates separately from Universal Credit, and that has rules that vary across English local authorities, could easily undermine many of the supposed advantages of Universal Credit.     

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.     

Effects of Temporary In‐Work Benefits for Welfare Recipients: Examination of the Australian Working Credit Programme*

We investigate the impact of ‘Working Credit’, a nationally‐implemented programme which created increased incentives for welfare recipients to undertake temporary work. Highlighting the difficulties in identifying programme effects in the absence of a randomised controlled trial or a natural experiment, we produce estimates of impacts under alternative identifying assumptions and also undertake various robustness checks. Unconditional and regression‐adjusted difference‐in‐difference estimates suggest that the introduction of the Working Credit programme increased employment rates, earnings and exits for those on income support, but matching methods and various robustness checks provide conflicting evidence on the impact on movements from welfare to work for unemployment benefit recipients. Moreover, estimated effects on earnings while on benefits are sensitive to identifying assumptions. Notwithstanding our inability to conclusively identify causal effects of the programme, we note that our findings are broadly consistent with the incentive effects of the programme, with recipients making use of the credits to increase earnings while on benefits, but not increasing movements off welfare.     

Opting for Opting‐In? An Evaluation of the European Commission's Proposals for Reforming VAT on Financial Services*

This paper provides a legal and economic analysis of the European Commission's recent proposals for reforming the application of VAT to financial services, with particular focus on their ‘third pillar’, under which firms would be allowed to opt in to taxation on exempt insurance and financial services. From a legal perspective, we show that the proposals’‘first and second pillars’ would give rise to considerable interpretative and qualification problems, resulting in as much complexity and legal uncertainty as the current regime. Equally, an option to tax could potentially follow significantly different legal designs, which would give rise to discrepancies in the application of the option amongst Member States of the European Union (EU). On the economic side, we show that quite generally, when firms cannot coordinate their behaviour, they have an individual incentive to opt in on business‐to‐business (B2B) transactions, but not on business‐to‐consumer (B2C) transactions. We also show that opting‐in eliminates the cost disadvantage that EU financial services firms face in competing with foreign firms for B2B sales. But these results do not hold if firms can coordinate their behaviour. An estimate of the upper bound on the amount of tax revenue that might be lost from allowing opting‐in is provided for a number of EU countries.     

International tax competition with endogenous sequencing

This paper examines endogenous timing in an international tax competition model. Unlike existing studies, governments are assumed to decide not only tax rates but also whether they are set early or late. The Nash equilibrium provides four conclusions for alternative double tax allowances. First, tax deductions cause simultaneous tax competition, whereas tax credits yield sequential tax competition. Second, any double taxation relief would generate capital trade. Third, a credit system could maximize one country’s economic welfare but would lower another country’s economic welfare more than a deduction regime. Fourth, a home country’s government would choose credit regimes under a maximax rule, but select deduction methods under minimax and maximin rules, while all double tax allowances are indifferent to a host country. The findings resolve the question raised by Bond and Samuelson (Economic Journal 99:1099–1111, 1989) of why governments choose tax credits when tax deductions are clearly better. Namely, this paper shows that one country is better off but another is worse off with credits rather than deductions. Accordingly, we cannot clearly specify whether governments choose credit systems or deduction regimes. The possible double tax allowances employed by the governments depend on their own decision criterion.     

The First Step of the Capital Flow from Institutions to Entrepreneurs: the Criteria for Sorting Venture Capital Funds

We contribute to the knowledge of the capital flow from institutional investors via venture capital (VC) funds as intermediaries to their final destination, entrepreneurial ventures. To this end, we conduct a world‐wide survey among limited partners to determine the importance of several criteria when they select VC funds. We find the top criteria to be the expected deal flow and access to transactions, a VC fund's historic track record, his local market experience, the match of the experience of team members with the proposed investment strategy, the team's reputation, and the mechanisms proposed to align interest between the investors and the VC funds. A principal component analysis reveals three latent drivers in the selection process: ‘Local Expertise and Incentive Structure’, ‘Investment Strategy and Expected Implementation’, and ‘Prestige/Standing vs. Cost’. It becomes evident that limited partners search for teams which are able to implement a certain strategy at a given cost. Thereby, they focus on an incentive structure that limits agency costs.     

Removing Homeownership Bias in Taxation: The Distributional Effects of Including Net Imputed Rent in Taxable Income

The income tax systems of most countries entail a favourable treatment of homeownership, compared to rental‐occupied housing. Such ‘homeownership bias’ and its consequences for a wide range of economic outcomes have long been recognised in the economic literature. Although a removal of the homeownership bias is generally advocated on efficiency grounds, its distributional implications are often neglected, especially in a cross‐country perspective. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by investigating the first‐order effects, in terms of distribution of income and work incentives, of removing the income tax provisions favouring homeownership. We consider six European countries – Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK – that exhibit important variation in terms of income tax treatment of homeowners. Using the multi‐country tax benefit model EUROMOD, we analyse the distributional consequences of including net imputed rent in the taxable income definition that applies in each country, together with the removal of existing special tax treatments of incomes or expenses related to the main residence; thus, we provide a measure of the homeownership bias. We implement three tax policy scenarios. In the first, imputed rent is included in the taxable income of homeowners, while at the same time existing mortgage interest tax relief schemes and taxation of cadastral incomes are abolished. In the two further revenue‐neutral scenarios, the additional tax revenue raised through the taxation of imputed rent is redistributed to taxpayers, through either a tax rate reduction or a tax exemption increase. The results show how including net imputed rent in the tax base might affect inequality in each of the countries considered. Housing taxation appears to be a promising avenue for raising additional revenues, or lightening taxation of labour, with no inequality‐increasing side effects.     

Are imputation credits capitalised into stock prices?

We investigate whether imputation tax credits are capitalised into Australian stock prices by utilising discounted cash‐flow valuation models and examining the relation between earnings yields and imputation credit yields. While imputation credits are valuable to many investors, the evidence that they are reflected in share prices is at best mixed and largely unconvincing. Our results reveal that imputation credits fail to lower realised returns casting doubts over whether imputation credits are priced from the perspective of longer‐term buy‐and‐hold investors. If so, such investors can expect to fully benefit from their imputation credits, and imputation effects may not impact on the cost of capital.     

What is the After‐Tax Price of R&D? An Interstate Comparison*

As of 2005, 31 US states offered corporate income tax credits on research and development (R&D) expenses in order to encourage more in‐state innovation activities. Empirical questions about the efficacy of such tax breaks at the state level persist, in part because the complexity of the tax laws means that simple credit‐rate comparisons across states do not fully capture the differential variation in effective after‐tax price incentives firms face in choosing where to locate R&D activities. We are unaware of any research analysing and comparing the effective prices of R&D faced by firms, across all US states and utilising micro‐level data. Using data extracted from detailed reading of individual firms' 10‐K and S‐1 filings and of state‐level tax credit rules, we estimate the effective after‐tax price of basic and qualified research expenditure each firm would have faced in each of the 50 states had they been located there. Our methodology simulates the effective tax price of each firm's marginal dollar of research expenditure, assuming the firm chose to move all of its R&D operations to each of the 49 other states. Through Monte Carlo techniques, we consider the sensitivity of our interstate comparative results to several modelling assumptions. We find significant variation in after‐tax R&D prices across states with quite different R&D tax laws. Prices range from $0.176 to $0.520 on a marginal dollar of R&D in Virginia and Washington State, respectively. We also find that the interstate variability is generally more important – indeed, much wider than we had anticipated before investigating state‐by‐state regulations – than the inter‐firm variability within states.     

Is there an employee-based gender gap in informal financial markets? International evidence

We study the impact of female production workers on firms' access to trade credits across the world. Using two sources of plausibly exogenous variations in gender bias and a difference-in-differences framework, we document that firms with more female production workers have less access to trade credits in countries with stronger gender beliefs that favor males. This relationship is largely driven by firms in industries with unexpected credit shortages and industries dominated by males. Since female firms rely more on informal finance, this study is relevant for policies that direct female firms towards formal credit markets in highly gender-biased places.