Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis

The rapid growth of biofuels production, particularly in the United States, the EU, and Brazil, has had important implications for the global livestock industry—both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by‐products, most of which end up in livestock feed rations. This article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production. Surprisingly, we find that growth in the U.S. and EU biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions, due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by‐products. We also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock, because it is less able to use biofuel by‐products in its feed rations. Implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area, a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands. The biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils, while they increase their exports of processed feed materials. In sum, biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops, with net effects influenced by the important role of by‐products in substituting for feedstuffs.     

Estimating feed utilisation matrices using a cost function approach

In this paper a multiple-output cost function framework is proposed to construct national feed balances or feed utilisation matrices (FUMs). The framework is applied to the Belgian compound feed industry. For estimation purposes a Symmetrie Generalised McFadden (SGM) cost function is selected. The cost function is estimated using readily available time-series data for the period 1962–88. Unlike previous studies based on duality theory, this study exploits the properties of nonjointness in animal feed production to establish a complete FUM. The allocation of feed ingredients among different livestock categories as well as the composition of various compound feeds are identified. Also own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for feed ingredients by type of livestock are reported.     

Decompositions of corn price effects: implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply

This article examines how corn prices affect the demand for feed grains and the supply of livestock outputs. The differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm is employed to examine ex ante decisions about feed grain demand and livestock supply. The estimation results suggest that livestock producers have little flexibility in adjusting the demand for corn in response to an increase in corn prices. The substitutable relationship between corn and distillers’ grains contributes to alleviating pressures on feed costs in response to high corn prices. In addition, the estimation results highlight that the composition of livestock supply can be altered by changes in livestock prices. On the basis of the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit‐maximizing input demand are conducted to examine the effects of changes in corn prices on feed grain demand and livestock supply. The decomposition results reveal that an increase in corn prices reduces corn demand but raises the demand for distillers’ grains mainly due to the substitution effects of corn price changes. The decomposition results also show that an increase in the price of corn reduces cattle supply but raises the supply of chicken and pork due to the output relationships in supply.     

On the Use of Price Ratio in Aggregate Supply Response: Some Evidence from the Poultry Industry

The specification of supply/demand relationships has received considerable attention in agricultural economics (Heien 1977). Economic theory has helped provide a basis for the specification of such relationships, one of its contributions being the proposition that prices should be interpreted only in relative terms. This has had a profound influence on model building in agricultural economics, leading a number of researchers to avoid the use of absolute prices in economic analysis. For this reason, numerous market models of the agricultural economy use price ratios as explanatory variables (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien, 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz; Morzuck et al.; Houck and Gallagher; Wilson et al.); these examples suggest that the use of such ratios is fairly widespread in econometric modeling of the crop and livestock sectors. One of the best examples of price ratios is the "feed cost to price" ratio commonly used in the analysis of livestock supply response. Indeed, since feed cost constitutes a major part of the total production cost in livestock activities, the "feed cost to price" ratio is often considered a proxy for profitability. For this reason, data on such ratios are regularly published for various livestock activities (e.g., USD A). Also, "feed cost to price" ratios are often employed in the specification of models of livestock supply response, (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz). However, not all models of aggregate supply response follow this approach. For example, Freebairn and Rausser, and Arzac and Wilkinson, use prices as separate variables rather than in ratio forms in their models. In particular, they do not employ price ratios in their livestock and crop supply equations. The existence of these different approaches raises questions about the appropriateness of the use of price ratios in the modeling of aggregate supply.     

The Effect of Energy Price Increases on the U.S. Livestock Sector

This study is unique and crucial to the current time period because of the recent high energy price escalation. The uniqueness of this study pertains to the void in energy impact research of the agricultural sector, more specifically to livestock. The U.S. Department of Energy has models estimating economy-wide impacts, but not the specific impacts on agriculture. The Iowa State study concentrated on the grain sector.
The results presented here indicate that energy price increases will have substantial effects on livestock prices and production. Energy price increases will also result in differential impacts on livestock commodities (with poultry and eggs having the largest price and production effects). Furthermore, the multi-period framework enables the livestock model to capture lagged production responses. Noticeable is the higher impacts occurring in the third and fourth years.
In the future, higher energy costs may induce changes in U.S. production, processing and distribution patterns of livestock commodities. The highly vertically integrated poultry and egg industries may begin shifting production locations away from the colder northern regions to areas with more temperate climates. For industries like beef, pork and dairy, there may be increased range production to reduce impacts from higher feed costs. For all industries, closer proximity of processing plants to major livestock producing areas may occur.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

Mitigation potential and costs for global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions1

Agricultural activities are a substantial contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for about 58% of the world's anthropogenic non‐carbon dioxide GHG emissions and 14% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions, and agriculture is often viewed as a potential source of relatively low‐cost emissions reductions. We estimate the costs of GHG mitigation for 36 world agricultural regions for the 2000–2020 period, taking into account net GHG reductions, yield effects, livestock productivity effects, commodity prices, labor requirements, and capital costs where appropriate. For croplands and rice cultivation, we use biophysical, process‐based models (DAYCENT and DNDC) to capture the net GHG and yield effects of baseline and mitigation scenarios for different world regions. For the livestock sector, we use information from the literature on key mitigation options and apply the mitigation options to emission baselines compiled by EPA.     

基于抽样调查的我国大菱鲆养殖成本收益分析

借鉴国内外农产品成本收益分析指标体系的设立方法和相关研究理论,选取河北、辽宁、山东等主产区不同规模的27家鲆鲽鱼类养殖单位作为样本,就大菱鲆养殖成本及销售价格等数据进行调查统计,并利用对比分析法、盈亏平衡点分析法、敏感性分析以及建立计量模型等方法,对27个调查样本的相关数据进行成本收益分析,结果表明企业提高产销量对利润的提高影响积极,企业利润对单价是富有弹性的,而对于单位变动成本和固定成本来说是缺乏弹性的,企业能较快速收回成本的项目,饲料价格、用电费用、单位固定成本折旧和销售量对毛利润具有显著性的影响。     

The ‘Direct Costs’of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain

The ‘direct costs’attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost‐benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.     

Comparative Advantage Indices of Selected Livestock Production Sectors in Brunei Darussalam

Abstract

This study calculates the protection rates and comparative advantage indices of livestock industry in Brunei from an import substitution perspective. Four livestock sub-sectors were being evaluated: broiler, layer, goat and beef cattle. Two measures of government intervention indices were calculated, namely nominal protection rate (NPR) and effective protection rate (EPR). Domestic resource cost (DRC) and resource cost ratio (RCR) indices were computed to determine the comparative advantages of the livestock industry. In general, the results indicate that the livestock industry in Brunei was heavily protected. The study revealed the existence of comparative advantage only for very large farms producing poultry meat and eggs. Similarly in the ruminant sector, goat production appears to have comparative advantage over beef cattle. Small and medium poultry farms and large non-ruminant farms and cattle beef production possess comparative disadvantage despite being highly protected industries.     

对近期与中长期中国粮食安全的再认识

粮食安全始终是国家经济、社会稳定与发展的基础,突如其来的新冠疫情在影响中国与全球经济发展的同时,也引起社会各界对粮食安全问题的广泛关注。本文分析了中国粮食安全保障现况、近期各界关注粮食安全的主要问题和未来面临的挑战,并预测中长期主要粮食供需变动趋势。分析表明,近期和中长期中国口粮绝对安全,未来饲料粮(玉米和大豆等)进口将逐渐增长以保障国内畜产品的供给安全;而笼统的粮食安全概念往往误导社会各界和政府。口粮安全、饲料或畜产品安全是中国粮食安全已至食物安全的关键问题。最后,本文提出保障国家粮食安全的相关政策建议。     

病死畜禽无害化处理PPP项目回报机制研究

［目的］可行性缺口补助是目前我国病死畜禽无害化处理利用PPP项目的主要回报机制,识别可行性缺口补助的主要影响因素,对于优化项目成本结构、提高财政支持效率、促进项目顺利实施具有重要的意义。［方法］文章运用生命周期成本分析法,通过对我国东南部地区的A县进行典型案例分析,使用财务净现值为社会资本投资决策的成本收益指标,构建该县病死畜禽无害化处理PPP项目的全生命周期成本模型,选取产品数量及价格、工资成本、基准收益率和合作期限等指标,分别分析其变动对项目可行性缺口补贴的影响。［结果］受畜牧产业结构调整和非洲猪瘟等重大动物疫病暴发因素影响,A县项目实际处理病死畜禽数量的变化对可行性缺口补助影响最大,有机肥价格、基准收益率、工资成本次之,合作期限的变动影响较小。［结论］适应区域产业发展布局调整趋势,因地制宜确定建设规模,设置可行性缺口补助,是保证PPP项目顺利建设和运营、切实发挥效用的关键。     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND LIVESTOCK FEEDING

Much has been written about feeding eficiency as a major influence on projits in livestock production. Feed costs are shown to be the largest single item of cost and feeding eficiency to hinge on the twin problems of ascertaining the best level of yield for which to feed and of selecting those, feedstufs that produce the yield at least cost. Having demonstrated the incontrovertible logic of marginal analysis in the solution of these problems, agricultural economists tend to abandon the farmer to the task of putting theory into practice. While it is not disputed that a knowledge of principles may assist producers by delineating the information that is ideally required, the gul/ that exists betmeen theoretical principles and their practical application is a very real one, and is the concern of this paper in respect of the determination of optimal levels of output. After reviewing the manner in which the relevant theory applies to diferent types of livestock production practical problems are considered and possible solutions discussed.     

Measuring the functional efficiency of agricultural futures markets

This article presents a method for measuring the functional efficiency of agricultural futures markets in terms of social welfare using a standard futures market structural model. Employing the concept of social surplus, it can be shown that, when futures prices are used to estimate future spot prices, the errors in prediction produce to some degree resource misallocation, which in turn results in welfare losses. Therefore, the social welfare associated with the presence of futures markets can be measured using a Social Loss index. The indicator was calculated for the period 1975–2015 and for several subperiods, which allow us to analyse functional efficiency before and after the 2007–2008 spikes in the prices of agricultural commodities. Futures contracts for 12 products are evaluated. The products are grouped in three different categories: ‘soft products’, ‘livestock’ and ‘grains and oilseeds’. The results indicate that livestock contracts tended to be more efficient than the rest of the contracts during the whole period, but in 2008–2015 their efficiency decreased vis‐á‐vis the rest of the products. Nevertheless, 2008–2015 proved to be the most efficient subperiod, confirming the remarkable development of agricultural futures markets over time.     

Measuring the social costs of suboptimal combinations of policy instruments: A general framework and an example

Since most agricultural programs employ two or more policy instruments simultaneously, it is notable thai little research has attempted to find optimal instrument combinations and no research exists which evaluates the social costs (unrealized benefits) of combining instruments suboptimally. In our paper we report a simple and feasible method to find optimal policy instrument combinations, and we provide the first general, formal approach to measuring the social costs of suboptimal policy instrument combinations. Our approach is illustrated in an analysis for live major U.S. crops (corn, feed grains, wheat, rice, cotton). The simple model we employ for the illustration suggests that except lor the feed grains program, the observed programs combined policy instruments quite suboptimally. We conclude that agricultural economics research now can and should begin placing increased emphasis on studying optimal policy instrument combinations.     

Agricultural Commodity Prices: Perspectives and PoliciesLandwirtschaftliche Rohstoffpreise: Perspektiven und PolitikenLes prix des produits de base agricoles : perspectives et politiques

Agricultural Commodity Prices: Perspectives and Policies World prices of wheat, coarse grains, rice and oilseed crops nearly doubled between 2005 and 2007 and continued to rise into 2008, although some of them later started to fall back. The price increases have been a significant factor driving up the price of food to consumers and the cost of feed for cereal-based livestock producers. They have drawn heightened attention to problems of food security and hunger, especially for poorer food consumers in developing countries. A major question is whether these price increases reflect a fundamental change in global food markets and an end to the long-term downward trend in falling real prices of agricultural commodities. Understanding the causes of the recent price increases in the context of long-term trends is vital in order to identify the appropriate policy responses by governments. This article, based on the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2008–2017, focuses on the factors behind the price increases, the medium-term perspectives, and the appropriate policy responses. Rising food prices is an issue of a truly global nature. A calm, objective response is needed now from individual governments and from international organisations in order to ensure an effective and a coherent global response, and to avoid making a difficult situation worse.     

Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries' imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technological catch-up in livestock production on trade in livestock and grains products among countries in the Asia-Pacific region are assessed. Tests are conducted of the hypothesis that productivity levels in the Asia-Pacific region are converging. Projections of livestock productivity are made and incorporated in a modified GTAP model. The consequences for regional and global trade in livestock and grains products are explored.     

ValorE: An integrated and GIS-based decision support system for livestock manure management in the Lombardy region (northern Italy)

Intensive agriculture and livestock breeding represent critical factors in the Lombardy region since the nitrate vulnerable zones are 62% of utilised agricultural plain area. The aim of reducing the environmental risk caused by agriculture activities (e.g. nitrogen losses into groundwater and atmosphere) can be only achieved through a critical and scientific analysis of livestock manure management in a whole-farm perspective. Keeping in mind this objective, the decision support system (DSS) ValorE was developed. It can be described as a tool able to evaluate from the environmental, technical, agronomic and economic points of view the main components of manure management (production, storage, treatment and land application) for a variety of livestock types (i.e., cattle, swine, poultry, sheep, goats and horses), under different scenarios adopted at farm and territorial scale. ValorE consists of three main components: data management subsystem, model management subsystem and two versions of user-interface, both for farm and territorial scale. Most of the inputs to the DSS comes from external databases, while a software tool developed in the .NET environment and implemented using object oriented programming (C# language), provides the logic to manage the scenario simulation of agronomic and environmental farm-scale models. Users and stakeholders can carry out comparative analysis, starting from the knowledge of the current perspective, in terms of manure management system at farm or territorial scale by interrogating the available databases. Moreover, they can generate different alternative scenarios thanks to different options for the manure handling and cropping system simulation. Then they can finally evaluate and compare different scenarios through multidisciplinary and synthetic indicators but also visualise spatial effects exploiting the coupled webGIS. ValorE is therefore an attempt to offer a comprehensive tool for improving both farm strategy and decision making process, which is particularly important in a very intensive agricultural area, with one of the highest livestock density in the world, as Lombardy.     

Reconstructing production efficiency,land use and trade for livestock systems in historical perspective. The case of France, 1961–2010

This paper provides an original accounting of changes in livestock production efficiency per livestock category in historical perspective and connects livestock consumption with land requirements and virtual land trade. We use France as a demonstration study and account for productivity changes in terms of energy. Feed rations composition are reconstructed per livestock production and feed crop group over time to account for changes in land use in relation to dietary changes. Land requirements for consumption in France dropped by 28% over the study period besides an increase by 35% of the human population and by 53% of the livestock consumption. The two-fold increase in agricultural productivity is due, for half, to energy conversion efficiency improvements and for half to agricultural yields. Overall, the livestock energy conversion efficiency increased by 45% from 1961 to 2010, poultry gained 84%, pork 17%, sheep&goat 67% and cattle 27%. The feed share of oilcrops and cereals in animal rations doubled against a drop by 35% of feed from pastures. Virtual land imports for oilcrops in relation to livestock consumption in France today amount to 0.9 million ha against a maximum of 1.9 million ha in 1979. Besides its dependence on oilcrops imports, the French livestock sector displays net virtual land exports ranging from about 2.5–5.3 million ha per year over the study period. Gross virtual land trade is today five times higher than the net virtual trade. The difference highlights the share of circular product loops in increasingly integrated agricultural markets at the international scale.     

Evaluating Input Standards for Non‐Point Pollution Control under Firm Heterogeneity

The efficacy and cost of input standards for reducing nitrate pollution from New Zealand dairy production are evaluated. In contrast to previous studies, firm heterogeneity is explicitly considered through the novel integration of efficient techniques for the calibration and decomposition of large optimisation models. Nitrogen fertiliser application should not be targeted by policy given its minor role in determining emissions. In contrast, livestock intensity is an appropriate base for regulation given its strong correlation with pollutant load. Abatement cost increases as stocking rate declines, but this can be offset at low levels of regulation through utilising slack feed resources to improve per‐cow milk production. Both uniform and differentiated input standards based on livestock intensity achieve substantial decreases in pollutant load at moderate cost. However, because of disparity in the slopes of abatement cost curves across firms, a differentiated policy is more cost‐effective at the levels of regulation required to achieve key societal goals for improved water quality.