The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*

The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

Central/Local Fiscal Relations: The Macroeconomic Dimension

Central/local fiscal relations are being re-evaluated by policy makers intent upon reducing the alleged burdens of a large and growing public sector. The reforms of the Thatcher administrations during the 1980s placed central-local relationships high on the policy agenda and many powers were taken back to central government in an effort to achieve greater control over public spending. Behind many of the reforms in the 1980s was a set of economic arguments advocated primarily by the Treasury. More recently in its evidence to the Hunt Committee (1996) the Treasury has reaffirmed these arguments, despite the counter-evidence supplied by academic economists and others over the past 20 years. This article rehearses some of the earlier arguments and reviews the most recent contributions. Arguments which were contingent upon the prevailing conditions of the late 1970s and early 1980s might no longer be relevant to the world of the late 1990s.     

Macro‐Fiscal Volatility and the Composition of Public Spending*

Earlier empirical literature has examined some long‐ and medium‐term aspects of macro‐fiscal volatility while leaving its short‐term fiscal impact unexplored. To help fill that gap, we examine the impact of macro‐fiscal volatility on the composition of public spending. To that end, we analyse a panel of 10 EU countries during 1991–2007. Our results suggest that increases in the volatility of regularly‐collected and cyclical revenues such as the VAT and income taxes tend to tilt the expenditure composition in favour of public investment. In contrast, increases in the volatility of ad hoc taxes such as capital taxes tend to favour public consumption spending, albeit only a little. We interpret such volatility innovations as conveying news to the fiscal policymaker about the underlying economic conditions, with especially regularly‐collected and cyclical taxes prompting short‐term cyclical fine‐tuning.     

Public Investment,the Stability Pact and the ‘Golden Rule’

The fiscal rules set in the Treaty of Maastricht and in the Stability and Growth Pact have sometimes been criticised as an excessively binding constraint for appropriate counter‐cyclical action. The risk that the rules may permanently reduce the public sector's contribution to capital accumulation has also been pointed out. In this framework, the adoption of a ‘golden rule’ has been suggested. Starting from the recent debate, this paper tackles two questions: (a) the implications of the Pact for public investment and (b) the pros and cons of introducing a golden rule in EMU's fiscal framework, given the objectives of low public debts and adequate margins for a stabilising budgetary policy. The analysis suggests that the rules set in the Treaty and in the Pact may negatively influence public investment spending. However, the golden rule, although intuitively appealing, does not seem to be an appropriate solution to the problem.     

Can Africa's Saving Collapse Be Reversed?

Private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from more than11 percent of disposable income in the 1970s to less than 8percent in the 1980s and only partially recovered (to less than9 percent) in the 1990s. This article analyzes the determinantsof private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa, seeking to explainthe region's dismal performance and identify policies that couldhelp to reverse the region's decline in saving. The analysisshows that in Sub-Saharan Africa causality runs from growthto investment (and perhaps to private saving), whereas a risein the saving rate Granger-causes an increase in investment.Foreign aid Granger-causes a reduction in both saving and investment,and investment also Granger-causes an increase in foreign aid.The empirical analysis of private saving in Sub-Saharan Africaand other regions over 1970–95 suggests that private savingin Africa can be explained by standard behavioral models. Accordingto these models private saving in Africa lags behind that inother regions (most notably, the high performing Asian economies)because of the region's lower per capita income, high young-agedependency ratio, and high dependence on aid. The combined effectsof these factors substantially outweigh Africa's advantage fromits lower public saving and higher government consumption. Finally,analysis of the experiences of Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Botswanaprovides further insight into the saving process in Sub-SaharanAfrica.     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Concentrating on q and cash flow

Investment spending by US public firms is highly concentrated. The 100 largest spenders account for 60% of total capital expenditures and drive most of the variation in aggregate investment. This high concentration creates a disconnect between the average public firm and macroeconomic aggregates. For large firms, cash flow remains the primary driver of investment spending and has not declined in importance as it has for smaller public firms. The cash flowing to big spenders provides a better forecast of future investment opportunities than noisy proxies for Tobin's q even though these firms are not financially constrained. These results suggest that, at least for the largest spenders, it is unlikely that measurement error drives the significance of cash flow. Our results are also inconsistent with recent models that predict higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for small young growth firms and suggest that cash flow is still the most important determinant of macroeconomic fluctuations in investment spending.     

Inequality and two decades of British tax and benefit reforms

Microsimulation methods are used to identify the contribution of tax and benefit reforms to the significant growth in UK income inequality since 1979. The total effect turns out to depend crucially on the counterfactual against which the reforms are assessed: compared with the alternative of pure price‐indexation, the total effect of reform is small; by contrast, compared with a counterfactual in which benefits rose in line with national income (historically the case before 1979), the effect is substantial – approximately half the total rise in income inequality is explained. The impact of reforms on inequality has varied significantly over time: income tax cuts in the late 1970s and late 1980s increased inequality; direct tax rises in the early 1980s and 1990s, together with increases in means‐tested benefits in the late 1990s, reduced it. The robustness of the results to sampling variation and to the measure of inequality used is also investigated.     

Borrowing to Finance Public Investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ Reconsidered in an Endogenous Growth Setting*

In this paper, we look for long‐run and short‐run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth and welfare in a standard endogenous growth model. We show that, under very general hypotheses, the ‘golden rule of public finance’, which allows a government to run public‐investment‐oriented fiscal deficits, leads to a lower balanced‐growth path in the long run, and eventually in the short run, compared with balanced‐budget rules. Welfare effects are more difficult to assess, and depend on the form of the utility function. Our model shows that debt rules such as the golden rule may improve (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘low’) or weaken (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘high’) intertemporal welfare. Consequently, a balanced‐budget rule does not necessarily dominate debt rules from the point of view of welfare, while it does from the point of view of long‐run economic growth.     

The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered

In the standard Keynesian framework, government spending on useless public works has a larger multiplier effect than spending on government transfer payments does. In other words, spending on useless public works increases national income by more than an equivalent increase in government transfer payments would. Nevertheless, their effects on national benefit are identical. For both, the national benefit equals the direct benefit created by the spending. If there are two income classes, some transfers reduce both the national income and the national benefit. Some government purchases completely crowd out private consumption and reduce the national benefit.     

The Heterogeneous Responses of Consumption between Poor and Rich to Government Spending Shocks

Government spending shocks have substantially different effects on consumers across the income distribution: consumption increases for the poor whereas it decreases for the rich in response to a rise in government expenditure. I shed light on this issue by incorporating a progressive tax scheme and productive public expenditure into a heterogeneous agent model economy with indivisible labor. The model economy is able to successfully match aggregate and disaggregate effects of government spending shocks on consumption. When the government increases its spending and accompanies it by a rise in tax progressivity, the poor are employed and increase their consumption since after‐tax wage rates increase while the rich decrease their consumption because of a fall in after‐tax wage rates.     

Spending Reversals and Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg

This paper examines whether fiscal stimuli are more effective when the monetary policy is less responsive to inflation. First, we provide empirical evidence suggesting that, in the period of U.S. passive monetary policy, a positive government spending shock was followed over time by a spending cut. Second, our theoretical analysis reveals that the pegged nominal interest rate is not a sufficient condition to generate a large fiscal multiplier. An increase in government spending could increase the long‐run real interest rate, if it is associated with a government spending reversal and a less responsive monetary policy. Consequently, the response of private consumption can be negative and the government spending multiplier is not necessarily greater than 1.     

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Consumption Taxation

We characterize optimal fiscal policies in a general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and endogenous public spending. The government can tax consumption, as alternative to labor income taxes. Consumption taxation acts as indirect taxation of profits (intratemporal gains of taxing consumption) and enables the policymaker to manage the burden of public debt more efficiently (intertemporal gains of taxing consumption). We show analytically that these two gains imply that the optimal share of government spending is higher under consumption taxation than with labor income taxation. Then, we quantify numerically each of these gains by calibrating the model on the U.S. economy.     

公共支出不断增长的一个解释：鲍莫尔非均衡增长模型

公共支出不断增长、政府规模不断扩大是一种全球性的社会经济现象。对于公共支出不断增长的原因的解释不胜枚举,其中也不乏成熟的理论。本文主要从1967年鲍莫尔建立的两部门非均衡增长模型出发,给出公共支出规模不断增长的一个可能性解释。并基于此理论结合我国实际试图给出一些合理的政策建议。     

农村公共品供给差异与均等化研究

由于各地区财政能力和公共品支出的不对称,我国各地区农村公共品的国际水平存在着显著差异。根据2009年我国各省市自治区农村公共品供给状况的分析,发现农村公共品的供给和均等化在东、中、西部地区存在明显的差异,在农村公共品供给方面排在前十名的大多是中部和东部地区,而排在居后位置的大多是西部地区。西部地区的财力与农村公共品的支出需求存在较大的不对称。为改变这种状况,应当建立和完善政府预算管理体制;走农业联社、集体农庄化的道路;有针对性的加大政府对各地区农村公共品的投资;多渠道多方面加大对农村公共品建设的投资。     

Unemployment,Government Spending and the Laffer Effect*

The paper studies the effects of income tax rate changes in a general equilibrium model with frictional unemployment. Laffer curve effects, by which a tax rate reduction may increase the level of government spending or its share in output, are shown to be possible under certain conditions. These are the presence of unemployment benefit payments, government budget balance through fiscal spending adjustment and limited quantitative importance of labour reallocation costs. Endogenous government spending acts as a fiscal accelerator if the fiscal burden of unemployment benefit payments is large, but reduces the employment effects of tax rate cuts if it is low.     

An Unconventional Conglomerateur: Henry Singleton and Teledyne

Capital allocation involves decisions about raising and returning capital, and about acquiring and selling companies—all of which can have major effects on shareholder value. Rather than judging CEOs by growth in revenues or earnings, the author argues that they should be judged by increases in the per share value of the companies they manage and also in comparison with the returns generated by peer firms and the broader market. Successful CEOs have been able to overcome the “institutional imperative”—the tendency of managers to focus on the sheer size of their enterprises and to avoid doing things that might be seen as unconventional. In this chapter from his recent book, The Outsiders, which provides accounts of eight remarkably successful and long‐tenured CEOs, the author describes the successful management by Henry Singleton of the conglomerate Teledyne from 1963 to 1990, a period during which the company's shareholders enjoyed annualized returns of over 20%. During the 1960s, the company produced high returns mainly by making large acquisitions funded by new equity issues. During the 1970s and '80s, by contrast, Teledyne used massive share repurchases to return excess capital to shareholders. Thus, Singleton adjusted his capital allocation strategy in response to changes in product and financial markets—and to changes in the perceived difference between market and intrinsic values. When investors provided capital with relatively low required rates of return, as in the 1960s, Singleton was an aggressive buyer investor in a wide range of businesses. But when interest rates were high and equity valuations were low, as in the 1970s and early 1980s, Singleton used share repurchases to create value by reducing investment and limiting growth. The company's shareholders were well rewarded in both environments.     

Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?

The stabilization of economic activity in the mid 1980s has received considerable attention. Research has focused primarily on the role played by milder economic shocks, improved inventory management, and better monetary policy. This paper explores another potential explanation: financial innovation. Examples of such innovation include developments in lending practices and loan markets that have enhanced the ability of households and firms to borrow and changes in government policy such as the demise of Regulation Q. We employ a variety of simple empirical techniques to identify links between the observed moderation in economic activity and the influence of financial innovation on consumer spending, housing investment, and business fixed investment. Our results suggest that financial innovation should be added to the list of likely contributors to the mid-1980s stabilization.     

事业单位改革和财政政策选择

虽然政府在发展社会事业上负有不可推卸的责任,但公共服务的多层次性和群众需求的多样化特征使得政府无力也不可能成为唯一的公共服务供给者.因此,在事业单位改革的基本思路上,一是要坚持多元化的改革取向,让能走向市场的事业单位进入市场,政府集中财力保障基础性社会事业的发展.二是要动员社会力量举办社会事业,以满足不同层次的公共服务需求.三是要正确看待当前社会事业领域中非营利性组织的地位作用,并健全相应的管理制度.为了取得理想的改革效果,财政必须要从改进拨款方式、加强绩效考评入手,加强对社会事业支出的管理.同时还应完善相关优惠政策,调动民间资本进入社会事业领域的积极性.