Can healthcare ever be less than a necessity in MENA countries? A semiparametric estimation of the relationship between healthcare expenditure and GDP

This paper considers the relationship between healthcare expenditure (HCE) and gross domestic product using Baltagi and Li (Ann Econ Financ 3:103–116, 2002) semiparametric fixed effects regression estimator in a sample of 16 MENA countries over the 1995–2012 period. Findings indicate that income elasticity is not consistent but varies with income level and healthcare is a necessity for the non-oil rich countries (non-GCC) whereas it is an inferior good for the wealthiest countries in MENA; Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. Furthermore, it is found that the infant mortality rate per 1000 live births has a negative effect on per capita HCE in non-GCC countries and the proportion of the population age 65 and above is statistically significant in Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia.     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.     

Institutional versus non-institutional credit to agricultural households in India: Evidence on impact from a national farmers’ survey

A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives are focused explicitly on rural areas and have a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. Despite the significance of the above initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using large, national farm household level data and IV 2SLS estimation methods, we investigate the role of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Findings show that, in India, formal credit does indeed play a critical role in increasing both net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. Finally, we find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. On the other hand, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures.     

Corruption, economic growth, and income inequality in Africa

This paper uses panel data from African countries and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effects of corruption on economic growth and income distribution. I find that corruption decreases economic growth directly and indirectly through decreased investment in physical capital. A unit increase in corruption reduces the growth rates of GDP and per capita income by between 0.75 and 0.9 percentage points and between 0.39 and 0.41 percentage points per year respectively. The results also indicate that increased corruption is positively correlated with income inequality. The combined effects of decreased income growth and increased inequality suggests that corruption hurts the poor more than the rich in African countries. Received: March 19, 2001 / Accepted: December 14, 2001 RID="*" ID="*" An earlier version of this paper was presented at the first AmFiTan International Conference on Development Ethics in February 2000, Dar er Salaam, Tanzania. I thank two anonymous referees of this Journal for helpful suggestions. I am, however, solely responsible for any remaining errors.     

Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?

Recent empirical literature has found a negative relationship between income per capita and measures of risk from natural disaster, supportive of logic that higher incomes allow countries to mitigate disaster risk. We argue that behavioral changes at the micro level in response to increasing income (such as location choice and extent of costly abatement activity) may lead to a non-linear relationship between aggregate incomes and disaster damages, where the risks increase with income before they decrease. In a country-year panel data set, we show that disaster risk associated with flooding, landslides and windstorms increases with income up to GDP per capita levels of $5044, $3360, and $4688 per year respectively and decrease thereafter. Such non-linear impacts are absent for other disaster types such as extreme temperature events and earthquakes where the links between human behavioral choices and exposure to risk are not as strong. From a policy perspective, this suggests that for the least developed countries, the dual goals of disaster risk prevention and economic development cannot be assumed to be complementary for all forms of natural disaster. In addition to allocating resources to manage disaster risk, the poorest nations may have to be more proactive in enacting policies that alter the behavioral choices of citizens that impact a country's exposure to natural disaster risk.     

How Much Revenue Would a Full Land Value Tax Yield?In the United States in 1981, Census and Federal Reserve Data Indicate It Would Nearly Equal All Taxes

Abstract . Most urban economists and particularly specialists in urban public finance consider the land value tax, because of its economic effects and its influence toward rational development, the tax of choice. But could it replace, in whole or in large part, taxes which now burden labor and capital and distort efficient allocation of resources? How important would a full land rent tax's yield be? The U.S. Bureau of the Census provides data which, adjusted for errors and omissions, indicates that the annual land rent for 1981 was $721 billion. Federal Reserve Board data, similarly adjusted, indicates annual land rent for that year was $590.38 billion Hence we may say that a full land rent tax would yield something around $658 billion in 1981, or 28 percent of the 1981 national income. This is nearly two thirds of all taxes levied by all levels of government in 1981, and, with user charges and similar fees continued, it is probably equal or nearly equal to burdensome taxes.     

Highway Usage, Needs and Pollution as a Function of City Size and Population Density

Abstract . Using the data for 1990 urbanized areas from the 1972 Highway Needs Study, the effects of city size and population density on per capita vehicle use, miles of road, highway needs and “optimal”highway investment needs were investigated. The regressions showed that the miles of road per capita decrease with city population and population density. The vehicle miles of travel were found to increase with the land area of a city and its population. Although travel, and hence pollution increases in total as a city becomes more spread out, the suburban sprawl lowers the concentration of automotive pollutants in the atmosphere. Highway needs per capita decrease with population density, but increase with city size. Similar results are obtained when an approximation to optimal investment is used as the dependent variable.     

Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929–1990 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence.     

Development threshold,capital flows,and financial turbulence

We study capital flows in a panel of 130 countries, and derive the implications for the observed patterns of capital flows and capital controls before and into the crisis of 2008–11. We find that the size of capital flows is positively correlated with country's income level. In addition, capital flight has a non-linear relationship with the income level. Using the Hansen threshold estimation, we identify a three-stage threshold effect: for low-income countries (GDP per capita below US$ 3,000), capital flight increases as the income level rises; and only after the economy passes a threshold level (GDP per capita above US$ 5,000), capital flight declines with income. We conclude with a case study of Brazil and Korea, observing that the decisions to implement capital control measures tend to be pushed around by the feedbacks among economic growth, currency appreciation, and the global financial conditions.     

The Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect through the lens of the dependent economy model

The positive correlation between per capita income and cross-country price levels is called the “Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect.” The most influential explanation of this effect centers around sectoral output productivities as the determinant of the relative price of nontraded goods. The interaction between the change in relative prices and the change in per capita income, the dynamic PBS effect, is less well known. This paper extends the Turnovsky and Sen (1995) model of a small open economy by adding external economies into the production function. The model's dynamics accord well with several features of the empirical data on the dynamic PBS effect.     

Urban sector income distribution and economic development

This paper examines the relationship between measures of urban sector inequality and economic development for a sample of 25 developing and newly industrialized countries. A U-shaped relationship is found in which bottom urban quintiles' income shares initially decline and then rise as per capita income increases. This relationship is strengthened when an estimate of urban per capita income replaces national per capita income as the development measure. The curves suggest that per capita incomes of the bottom quintiles will never decline as development proceeds, but may rise only very slowly.     

IMPACT OF RELATIVE POPULATION CHANGE ON REGIONAL INCOME CONVERGENCE: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

The aim of this paper is to show the impact of relative population change on regional income convergence. Using the panel data of 64 Turkish provinces from 1987 to 2000, the results from modified convergence analyses show that both income and per capita income between provinces in Turkey indicate converging patterns. The convergence rates for the provincial per capita income, however, turned out to be about 30 percent larger than that of income. In order to examine this difference, the impact of relative population change on the growth process is incorporated using a decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that 17 percent of the 100 percentage point growth of per capita income resulted from the change in population share in favour of the provinces with high per capita incomes. The existence and pace of regional income convergence, therefore, may well be related to the degree of relative population change.     

Proposition 4, Tax Reduction Mirage: An Exploratory Note on Its Potential Spending and Tax Impacts

Abstract . What would the true government expenditure and tax-burden impacts of California's Proposition 4 likely be if it (or its equivalent) were enacted in all states? What happened to actual state plus local government expenditures per capita over the period FY 1970 - FY 1976 is examined. Next, we examine what would have happened to such expenditures (per capita) if Proposition 4 had been in effect over the same period. Comparing the results reveals that Proposition 4 would have exercised no significant impact over per capita state plus local spending levels. This implies that such legislation would not have resulted in significant tax reductions.     

Can economic development boost the active female labor force?

This study explores whether the female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) can promote economic development in Asian countries. We apply the method of bootstrap panel Granger causality in order to consider the cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity to detect specific patterns of the interactive relationships between the two variables. The estimation results point out that the interaction patterns vary across countries, which is consistent with the U-shaped hypothesis. Specifically, when the economy develops, FLFPR declines in Vietnam and India, whereas economic development promotes the FLFPR in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. More specifically, when GDP per capita lies at a relatively low level, the income effect dominates the substitution effect, resulting into the FLFPR changing in opposite direction. Nevertheless, the substitution effect holds the dominant position when the GDP per capita reaches a high level. The increase of FLFPR is accompanied by economic development due to availability of more jobs and increasing level of education. Therefore, policy makers should formulate plans in order to benefit from the potential of the female labor force by stimulating economic development.

     

Assessing the economic costs of high school noncompletion

Disparities in educational attainment exist across states. There are costs, both to the individual and society, associated with low levels of educational attainment. This research estimates the costs of high school noncompletion in terms of income loss for each state. The results suggest that: 1) there are substantial economic costs associated with high school noncompletion ($727 billion in lost income nationally); 2) costs vary widely across states; and 3) in general, states with relatively low levels of per capita expenditures on education incur the greatest losses in income from high school noncompletion.     

Computing the Extent of Circumvention of Proposition 13: A Response

Galles and Sexton (1998) showed that California state and local revenues exceeded their previous real per capita levels as did the sum of property taxes plus charges and miscellaneous revenues within a decade after Proposition 13 passed, and concluded that Proposition 13 was only temporarily successful at shrinking California state and local governments. Khoury and Pal (2000) challenge this conclusion. However, their conclusion that Proposition 13'mvention "n only marginal"from using per $1000 of income comparisons rather than real per capita comparisons and from using growth rate changes, which fail to adjust for U.S. fiscal trends, instead of changes in the levels of variables as their primary measure.     

A Simple Test for Convergence of Metropolitan Income in the United States

The prevalent test for income convergence used in many recent studies of convergence across spatial economic units in the United States is to use a regression equation in which income growth is regressed against the initial level of income (this is known as β convergence). That method, however, has been crtiticized as an instance of Galton's fallacy of regression. We devise a simple test for the income β-convergence hypothesis which does not suffer from “Galton's fallacy” and apply it to all of the metropolitan areas of the United States for the period 1969–1995. For the test we use two income measures: per capita personal income and average wages. Our results conclusively support convergence of per capita personal income and of wage per worker for metropolitan areas in the United States. We also test for σ convergence, the hypothesis of diminishing dispersion in income among places over time, and find no support for the hypothesis.     

The political economy of financial reform: How robust are huang's findings?

Using new data on financial liberalization taken from Abiad et al. (2008, IMF Working Papers, No. 08/266) for 62 countries over the period 1975–2005, we show that some of the main findings of Huang's (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24 : 1207–1213) replication study on the drivers of financial liberalization are not robust. Major changes concern the effect of democracy on financial reform and the supposed relationship between the desired level of financial liberalization and a country's per capita income. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Thirteenth‐Century Economics of Thomas Aquinas

In the Middle Ages, discourse on economics, such as it was, proceeded for the most part as an application of theological doctrine. But economic analysis as an independent discipline per se was taking shape in thirteenth‐century scholasticism. This is shown by a review of relevant sections of Thomas Aquinas’ Summa theologiae regarding property rights and the division of labour; wealth and income policies; consumer protection and fair trade; and the distinction between usurious and licit financial returns.     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.