Economic Implications of Demographic Change

The United States is in the midst of a demographic transition toward a population age structure with a higher fraction of elderly individuals. The associated growth of transfer programs for which the elderly represent most of the beneficiaries, such as Social Security and Medicare, will place upward pressure on the size of the public sector. The rising number of individuals who are beyond the traditional age of retirement, relative to the number of individuals of traditional working age, will create incentives for longer working lives and for greater investments in human capital by younger workers. Changing age structure may also affect rates of return available to savers, although these effects are likely to be modest.     

The Risk of Future Labor Shortages in Different Occupations and Industries in the United States

In the next 10 years, there is likely to be a tight labor market, largely due to the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. This paper focuses on the details of occupations, industries, and regions in which there will be the highest risk of labor shortages in the United States. Twelve determinants of labor shortages were investigated to compile indices of labor shortage risk. These indices are presented and discussed for those occupations and industries that face the highest risks of labor shortages.     

Marketing retirement—or staying on the job

Financial packages provide the most common incentive to meet the legal requirement that retirement be voluntary. However, managers have other tools to encourage retirement or encourage staying on the job—within legal constraints and consistent with current health insurance changes that may make pre-65 retirement more desirable. In using these tools, managers must consider demographic realities that offer a large cohort available to replace retirees. To assist managers, a qualitative study among human resource experts probed how companies decide between encouraging retirement and encouraging staying on the job and also how each is accomplished to maintain a workforce best matched to job requirements. Suggestions for marketing retirement include starting early to encourage saving so that employees can afford to retire and improving the retirement ‘product’ by flexible alternatives to full-time work, including self-employment. Suggestions for keeping employees on the job include tailoring schedules and rewards to the preferences and needs of individuals who might otherwise retire.     

The Moderating Role of Gender Identity in Responses to Comedic Violence Advertising

Comedic violence advertising has been increasing in the United States, but many studies thus far have been content analytic in nature. To gain a better understanding of who will find comedic violence ads humorous and thus have favorable brand perceptions, two experimental studies were conducted with gender identity as an influential factor. In Study 1, masculine individuals responded more favorably to highly violent and humorous ads than feminine individuals did. Study 2 varied the violence level in the comedic violence ads and found that when violence was low both masculine and feminine individuals responded similarly to the comedic violence ad, but when violence was high masculine individuals responded more favorably than did feminine individuals. Perceived humor was found to be an important mediator of comedic violence ad processing. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are provided.     

The Roles of Gender and Marital Status on Risky Asset Allocation Decisions

We analyze data on asset allocations in individual retirement accounts to examine the roles of marital status and gender on investment decisions. We utilize data from two birth cohorts to understand the relationship over a wide age range. We find that, in their 30s and early 40s, men are more likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks in individual retirement accounts compared to women. The gender difference disappears around retirement age; however, a significant difference by marital status emerges in that age group. Divorced and widowed individuals are less likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks compared to married individuals in their 60s. While there exists a positive gap in stock holdings between married men and married women in their 30s, the gender gap is nonexistent among older individuals. Using paired data on stock holdings in the older birth cohort, we show that husbands' and wives' asset allocations in individual retirement accounts are strongly correlated, coinciding with the lack of a gender gap in stock holdings among older couples.     

Financial Literacy and Retirement Preparedness: Evidence and Implications for Financial Education

Economists are beginning to investigate the causes and consequences of financial illiteracy to better understand why retirement planning is lacking and why so many households arrive close to retirement with little or no wealth. Our review reveals that many households are unfamiliar with even the most basic economic concepts needed to make saving and investment decisions. Such financial illiteracy is widespread: the young and older people in the United States and other countries appear woefully under-informed about basic financial concepts, with serious implications for saving, retirement planning, mortgages, and other decisions. In response, governments and several nonprofit organizations have undertaken initiatives to enhance financial literacy. The experience of other countries, including a saving campaign in Japan as well as the Swedish pension privatization program, offers insights into possible roles for financial literacy and saving programs. JEL Classification A2, G2     

Benchmarking Tendencies in Managerial Mindsets: Prioritizing Stockholders and Stakeholders in Peru, South Africa, and the United States

Managers in Peru, South Africa, and the United States were classified into four groups along Singhapakdi et al. (J Bus Ethics 15:1131–1140, 1996) Perceived Role of Ethics and Social Responsibility (PRESOR) scale. In Peru and the United States, individuals in the ethics and social responsibility first category reported greater satisfaction with organizational performance than did those in the profits first category. Moral capitalists—individuals who report high emphases on both social responsibility and profits—reported the highest satisfaction with performance in the United States. Managers in the United States are more likely than their counterparts in Peru and South Africa to reject the mutual exclusivity of prioritizing social responsibility and profits simultaneously. Directions for future research are outlined.     

你是否在逆水行舟

在美国有一句俚语,“你可以不知道现任美国总统是谁?但是你一定会知道奥普拉是谁?”奥普拉温佛瑞在美国可谓是家喻户晓的著名人物。由她主持的《奥普拉脱口秀》曾风靡美国的大街小巷。就连美国总统都希望上她的电视节目来展示自己,以获取选票。2020 年,奥普拉温弗瑞以180 亿美元的财富荣登《2020 胡润全球白手起家女富豪榜》,位列第28 位。     

Sportsbooks and politicians: Place your bet!

Betting on sports is widespread. Book making can be profitable but the practice is illegal in the United States. The internet allows this activity to move to offshore locations like Costa Rica. The internet also lowers entry barriers and makes pricing more transparent which could lead to hyper competition. Using odds for four World Cup soccer games the case reader can calculate the expected profitability for several bookies (sportsbooks). Price dispersion does not disappear with the internet, even for gambling which entails no movement of merchandise. Strategy is important. Sportsbooks must decide on segments, product mix and geographic scope.     

Saving for Retirement Without Harming Others

This article discusses moral issues raised by defined contribution retirement plans, specifically 401(k) plans in the United States. The primary aim is to defend the claim that the federal government ought to require 401(k) plans to include a range of socially responsible investment (SRI) options. The analysis begins with the minimal assumption that corporations engage in behavior that imposes morally impermissible harms on others with sufficient regularity to warrant attention. After motivating this assumption, I argue that individual investors typically share in the responsibility for the harms imposed by corporations in which they invest, and that they therefore have a moral obligation to incorporate considerations of social responsibility into their investment decisions, when possible, to avoid being complicit in morally impermissible corporate behavior. I further argue that individuals are subject to substantial institutional and structural pressures that create a powerful incentive to invest in 401(k) plans, even though such plans typically lack any SRI options. To eliminate this pressure to commit indirect harm in the process of saving for retirement, I recommend that the federal government requires 401(k) plans to incorporate a range of SRI options, and I defend this proposal from several possible objections.     

The canada-U.S. free trade agreement

This article examines the forces that caused Canada and the United States to negotiate the free trade agreement, its principal provisions, the projected welfare gains, and estimated labor adjustments. Focusing on the latter, the impact on manufacturing employment is expected to be positive but small in the United States and negative but small in Canada; with the agriculture and resource sectors losing employment shares in both countries. The impact on services will be negligible in the United States and positive in Canada. Focusing on specific industries, nonferrous metals sector appears vulnerable in the United States, while textiles, clothing, furniture and fixtures, electrical and nonelectrical equipment and machinery, nonmetallic mineral products, and fabricated metal products appear vulnerable in Canada. However, actual job losses could be significantly circumscribed by moderate growth and employee turnover, and within vulnerable Canadian industries, there are pockets of significant strength such as in office furniture and telecommunications equipment.     

Sex,education, and unionism: demographic determinants of attitude toward japanese direct investment

This article reports the findings of a major survey of Ohio residents’ attitudes toward Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States. Attitudinal data were collected from 448 respondents with respect to their perceptions of Japanese investment in the United States and its effects. Crosstabulation of the data reveal the existence of significant attitudinal differences. Specifically, sex, educational level, and union membership are found to be significantly related to attitudes regarding Japanese foreign direct investment Women, individuals with lower levels of education, and union members hold more negative attitudes toward several aspects of Japanese foreign direct investment than the state's population as a whole.     

Private Parts: A Global Analysis of Privacy Protection Schemes and a Proposed Innovation for Their Comparative Evaluation

Given recent technological advances, we now are able to invade personal privacy as never before. The challenge in the business community is to make the most of the opportunities presented by the growth in communication technology while, at the same time, protecting what remains of individual privacy. The conflict between technological advances and privacy concerns is not new, but it has grown exponentially in recent years, and the development of a data protection scheme in the European Union lends a certain economic urgency to meeting the challenge. Pursuant to a Directive adopted by the European Union, privacy protections throughout the EU must become more stringent and consistent throughout EU member countries. One area of great concern to the United States is the Directive's requirement for certain minimum standards of privacy protection in countries receiving information from member countries. Given the limited protections available in the United States, it does not appear that the United States meets these minimum standards. The purpose of this paper is to critically analyze the existing measurements of global privacy protections and to propose a new model which allows for their comparative evaluation.     

The increasing financial obligations burden of US households: who is affected?

The purpose of this paper is to examine factors associated with changes in the proportion of households with high financial obligations ratios in the United States. The proportion of households paying more than 40% of income for debt, rent, vehicle leases, property taxes and homeowners’ insurance, which we refer to as having a heavy burden, increased from 18% in 1992 to 27% in 2007. Multivariate analysis of a combination of six Survey of Consumer Finances data sets indicates that the likelihood of having a heavy burden was positively associated with homeownership, self‐employment and retirement status. Those with an optimistic 5‐year expectation of the economy were more likely to be in a household with a heavy burden. Education was positively related to having a heavy burden, suggesting that having a heavy burden is not simply a cognitive error.     

The Changing Dynamics of Inflation

Inflation in the United States and elsewhere has become lower and more stable over the past two decades. It is likely that monetary policy has played an important role in this change in inflation dynamics by creating expectations of stability. This paper traces the evolution of the role of expectations in thinking about inflation, the supporting evidence over the past two decades, and role of central banks in influencing expectations. Increased global integration has magnified these effects. However, the importance of factors other than monetary policy implies that policymakers must consider a wide range of information before acting. Moreover, expectations of inflation stability cannot be taken for granted; and policymakers must be vigilant against complacency. JEL Classification E31, E58     

The “New Economic Reality”: How New and How Real?

Is there a “new economic reality” as the United States gradually emerges from the Great Recession? It appears that some major new forces are indeed likely to persist and must be taken into account in public policy and business planning. Others may or may not be transitory. Still other major factors, both good and bad, are not new but are likely to persist for the foreseeable future. This NABE presidential address describes the factors that are likely to have the most influence on the U.S. economic future and the implications that they have for economists in contributing to productive analysis and debate.     

Segment Assisted Living: Assessing the Needs of the Over-55 Population

ABSTRACT

The growth of the over-55 population segment in the United States will require an accompanying growth in the available housing options for this segment after retirement. This paper reports the results of research aimed at more clearly understanding this population's attitudes toward post-retirement housing. Specifically, this paper examines the attractiveness of the various post-retirement housing options, the respondents' role in the decision-making process, the reasons for moving into such housing, and preferred amenities. Findings indicate that the need to maintain independence is of primary importance for this group.     

The macroeconomics of commercial policy and the trade balance: A policy perspective

Given the continuing growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, there is a growing interest in examining its impact on the rate of economic growth. The immense literature on economic growth in the United States is composed of studies that concentrate on measuring the domestic variables that affect U.S. economic growth. However, the impact of foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the United States has not received the attention that is deserves. The purpose of this study is: (1) to examine the determinants of economic growth in the United States over time, and (2) to see if there is any time-series support for the FDI-led growth hypothesis in the United States. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. Employing a 40-year period of annual data, the model is estimated by using the Beach Mackinnon technique which corrects for autocorrelation. The estimation results suggest the following conclusions: 1. The major determinants of economic growth in the United States are total factor productivity growth, domestic investment growth, and foreign direct investment growth. 2. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and economic growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to economic growth. 3. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and total factor productivity growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to total factor productivity. These findings suggest that foreign direct investment growth has a significant impact on the United States economic growth. Additionally, foreign direct investment has a significant impact on total factor productivity in the United States, further contributing to the United States’ economic growth. This calls on the U.S. policy makers to devise policies that are conducive to increasing the amount of foreign direct investment in this country.     

Pension Freedom Day in the United Kingdom: Early evaluation of consumer response

Understanding decumulation decisions in retirement is an important component of public policy that influences pension regulations in aging societies. This research examined a recent, substantial change to pension regulation in the United Kingdom: the newly established flexibility to obtain a lump‐sum payout from personal or occupational pension savings. Conducting an online survey of individual’s eligible to take advantage of the Pension Freedom regulation, we find that almost half of study participants plan to obtain a lump‐sum payout, on average £33,741, intending it for an average of three different investments or purchases. The decision to obtain a lump‐sum withdrawal was related to better knowledge of the new regulation. It was also more likely among older respondents and those not worried about a decline in standard of living during retirement. Dispositional measures did not affect the lump‐sum decision. Close to one‐third of study participants still planned to invest retirement savings into an annuity, especially those who retire at a later age, have concerns about care costs and worry about decline in standard of living in retirement. Comments about the changes to pension regulation were slightly more positive than negative. From our analysis of the effect of the Pension Freedom regulation on savings decumulation decisions, we conclude that the new Pension Freedom regulations do meet consumer demands, and demonstrate that pension knowledge and retirement expectations, in particular, influence consumer evaluations. We further conclude that annuity investments continue to play a role for older adults in the United Kingdom, especially for those concerned about meeting financial needs during retirement.     

The Engines of Inequality

In Europe and in the United States, one of the legacies of the economic and financial crisis will no doubt be a high and particularly worrying level of economic inequality. Inequality has roots that go well beyond the 2008 collapse, but the stagnation that has followed it has made disparities in income and wealth more serious and more difficult to eradicate. The challenge now is to turn the injustice of current inequality into a theme of public mobilisation and political action.