Wealth Inequality and the Great Recession

The study of wealth and wealth inequality has received far less attention than income, but the increasing importance of wealth, debt and wealth inequality means closer attention must be paid to their concomitant dynamics. Policy interventions to reduce economic inequality continue to target income more than wealth, but targeting the latter – especially through taxes on financial assets – is arguably more effective.     

Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.     

Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession

It is generally believed that the recession of 2007–09 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book. We conclude that both sets of data are similar and that business economists are responsive to information about the economy and adjust their predictions quickly.     

Cognitive Ability and the Stock Reallocations of Retirees during the Great Recession

Retirees are increasingly responsible for managing their retirement savings. The ability to manage these assets efficiently can have an important impact on retirement well‐being. Lower levels of cognitive ability in old age can reduce an investor's ability to control emotional responses to a loss. Greater sensitivity to loss may increase preferences for safety following a market decline, resulting in allocations away from stocks that are associated with long‐term underperformance. We investigate whether cognitive ability is related to stock reallocations among retirees during the Great Recession. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we find that cognitive ability is negatively related to allocations away from stock. Compared to those with the lowest levels of cognitive ability, respondents with higher cognitive ability are 40% less likely to reduce their stock allocation by 50% or more. These results suggest that the quality of investment decisions in old age may be compromised by cognitive decline.     

The Relationship between Identity Crises and Crises of Control

Models of the work-to-family and family-to-work interface were tested in two heterogeneous samples of workers, one from North America (N = 408) and one from China (N = 442), using the same measures translated from English to Chinese using back translation. Consistent with proposed differences in the centrality of work and family, tolerance of work demands, and the availability of family support, work-to-family spillover effects tended to be stronger in the North American sample, whereas family-to-work spillover effects tended to be stronger in the Chinese sample. However, some inconsistencies across cultures did not conform to this generalization. Results point to asymmetric differences between North America and China in the work–family interface. Theoretical implications for resource scarcity and expansionist perspectives are discussed, as well as those for the applicability of work–family interventions across North America and China.     

止不住的生产率衰退

惠普,这家硅谷最古老的科技企业,包括乔布斯等一大半业界翘楚曾出自其门下的企业,或许对电脑业的微薄利润失望至极,决定抛弃PC业务。当全球经济再度低迷,二次探底之声不绝的时候,回顾IT业对经济增长的影响,或可解读出当前发达国家的尴尬处境。     

Corporate Restructuring in the UK during the Recession

This paper reports the results of a large scale survey of how UK firms are coping with the recession. Only a relatively small number of firms report being "extremely severely" affected by the recession, and these were firms with highly dispersed ownership structures, firms that grew unusually fast in the mid to late 1980s and holding companies. Among the responses to the recession identified by the survey was a substantial degree of organizational choice, effected mainly by closing plants. The most stable organizational form seemed to be the functional organization, while holding companies were the least.     

Financial Crises and Central Bank Independence

Although cooperation between central banks and treasuries is controversial, this paper contends that in a crisis it is inevitable and desirable. Six reasons for cooperation in a crisis are advanced. Disengagement in the aftermath and restoring central bank independence is tricky, however. The paper concludes with comments on what is necessary to maintain central bank credibility.     

银行危机传导渠道分析

金融脆弱性是认识银行危机传导的起点,在银行危机的形成及传导过程中起着决定性作用.本文分析了银行危机的接触性传导渠道和非接触性传导渠道,前者包括直接传导渠道和间接传导渠道,直接传导渠道主要是因为银行间彼此联系而发生的,其传导程度和范围与危机银行在整个体系中的地位、银行的资本充足率及危机银行的信贷暴露额度有关;间接传导渠道是指银行间因与第三方企业存在金融联系而被危机传导,企业的经营状况决定着危机传导的范围和程度.而因预期改变导致的银行危机传导是银行危机的非接触性传导,包括相似性传导和金融恐慌传导两种情况.为防止银行危机的传导,应增强单个银行的稳健性,实施存款保险制度,建立银行问的互助机制和缓冲机制,对银行问的信贷头寸进行管理,在必要时政府还应积极介入.     

试论企业财务危机的对策和防范

随着社会主义市场经济和现代企业制度的逐步建立和完善，企业财务危机的产生及其引起的危害越来越引起企业的重视，如何防范和根治财务危机成为一个日益突出而又迫切的问题。从财务危机发生时应采取的对策和防范措施两个角度来探讨这个问题，以提高我国企业的生存能力和竞争能力。     

Victorian Financial Crises and their Implications for the Future

Banking crises were a relatively common occurrence in 19th century England. Like the Federal Reserve today, the Bank of England struggled to quell panics by acting as the lender of last resort, while at the same time maintaining monetary stability. This article surveys the events leading up to and the Bank's response to the four post-1844 crises, highlights some of the similarities between the Victorian era panics and the 2007–08 crisis, and draws on the 19th century experience to illustrate the dilemmas facing modern central banks.     

外部需求衰退与代工企业自创品牌

在国际需求衰退的背景下,我国的代工企业面临着如何在外部需求衰退的约束下实现产业升级的新问题。外部需求衰退固然给代工企业生产经营带来困难,但这一外生冲击也在开拓市场、突破进入壁垒、获取营销渠道等方面给其自创品牌带来机遇。此外,代工企业品牌策略的成功还取决于企业自身效率、学习能力、资本和技术积累等多种因素。文章用韩国三星电子在亚洲金融危机中实现品牌成长的案例进行了说明,并分析了代工向自创品牌的转化条件。     

Economic Crises and Migration: Learning from the Past and the Present

This article considers the effects of past economic crises and cycles on migration with a view predicting the effects of the crisis of 2008–10. It then uses very recent data to test these as hypotheses. It examines the great migration to the New World in the nineteenth century (including in response to the Irish potato blight) in some detail because this was largely unhampered by changes in migration policy. It then more briefly looks at twentieth‐century experience – the 1930s, the 1970s and Asia in 1997–98. The hypotheses tested are that migration is reduced by downturns in destination countries but hardly affected by the cycle in home countries; that such downturns also lead to some return migration; that existing migrants suffer the effects of downturns more severely than natives and that although downturns may affect the timing of migration policy changes, the latter owe more to underlying secular forces than to short‐term shocks. Data from 2008–09 suggest support for each of these hypotheses.     

China Says No to Post-Olympic Recession

Can China break the magic spell? Will China break the traditional pattern of post-Olympic slowdown?Since the Second World War.GDP growth in the host country of the Summer Olympics has always suffered in the year following the Games.     

China Says No to post-Olympic Recession

Can China break the magic spell? Will China break the traditional pattern of post-Olympic slowdown?Since the Second World War.GDP growth in the host country of the Summer Olympics has always suffered in the year following the Games.     

美国经济会因次贷风波而衰退吗

次贷风波后弱于预期水平的美国最新经济数据加剧了市场担忧,美国经济衰退论大量涌现,这种极端化观点最大的弊病在于混淆了短期波动和长期趋势。结合美国经济结构特征、演化历史和最新变化,本文认为美国经济在长期内进入衰退的可能性较小,最根本的原因在于美国消费并没有出现长期萎靡的趋势,而具有易变性的投资放缓很可能是造成短期GDP增长率下降的重要因素,影响力相对较小且本身波动较大的净出口则不可能对美国长期经济增长造成较大打击。     

Polish Economic Transformation: From Recession to Recovery and the Challenges Ahead

The Polish path from planning to markets was dramatic and risky but the benefits are already beginning to show. The Solidarity-led government introduced simultaneous macroeconomic stabilization and microeconomic liberalization programmes in January 1990. Inflation was successfully brought under control and free markets were rapidly established, but at the same time the country went into a deep recession. However the economy has been experiencing a strong recovery for more than a year, and Poland will probably be the fastest growing economy in Europe in 1993. There has also been major progress in restructuring and, to a lesser extent, privatization. Overall, Poland has made substantial progress towards a West European-type economy.