Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes

Using a sample of 21 emerging and developed country currencies, we evaluate the impact of the Asian crisis on bid-ask spreads. While the crisis had widespread and uniform volatility effects, the spread effects were not uniform across emerging and developed country currencies. For Asian emerging markets, spreads widened and spread volatility increased significantly during the crisis, while developed markets spreads narrowed and spread volatility decreased significantly. We investigate the impact of more flexible and less flexible exchange rate regimes on bid-ask spreads using panel data. In general, countries with tightly-managed regimes have significantly lower spreads than countries with more freely-floating regimes, while controlling for the influence of other factors such as volatility. Asian developing market spreads are higher than spreads of the other countries, again, after controlling for the influence of other factors.     

Monetary and exchange rate stability in South and East Asia

Regaining exchange rate stability has been a major monetary policy goal of East Asian countries in the aftermath of the 1997/98 currency crisis. While most countries have abstained from re-establishing a formal US Dollar peg, they have typically managed the US Dollar exchange rate de facto. We show that most of these countries were able to regain their monetary credibility within a relatively short time period. The Argentine crisis in 2001 caused a minor setback in this process for some countries. We measure the credibility of monetary policy by separating the fundamental and excess volatility of the exchange rate on the basis of a chartist-fundamentalist model. The degree of excess volatility is interpreted as the ability of the central bank to manage the exchange rate via the coordination channel.     

Exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange rate change on stock returns in the Asian emerging markets. The asymmetric exchange exposure framework and real exchange rates are used in this paper to capture the different exposures between currency appreciation and depreciation and the high inflation effect in the emerging markets. My empirical results show that there did exist extensive exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets from 1997 to 2010. Moreover, foreign exchange exposure became more significant or greater during the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis periods, despite the frequent central banks’ interventions during these periods. The greater exchange exposure during the crisis periods can be attributable to net exporters or firms with dollar assets, implying that firms can reduce exchange exposures by decreasing their export ratio or dollar assets holding during times of crisis.     

Exchange rate variability and the riskiness of US multinational firms: evidence from the Asian financial turmoil

This paper studies the relationship between exchange rate variability and the volatility of the returns of US multinationals. Based on a sample of US multinationals with sales in the Asia-Pacific region, we examine how exchange rate fluctuations around the 1997 Asian financial crisis affected the sensitivity of those firms to stock market risk. The empirical evidence shows that increases in exchange rate variability during the crisis were associated with statistically significant increases in stock return volatility for the multinationals. Some of the increases in volatility were systematic in nature, because the beta coefficients of the firms rose during the period of increased exchange rate variability.     

Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Southeast Asia

The time-varying volatility and volatility transmission in Asian foreign exchange markets are investigated in this paper. It has been found that the time-varying volatility and volatility transmission are all prominent in these markets. Moreover, variance simulation is carried out and the structure of covariance matrices examined, revealing the characteristics of Asian foreign exchange markets and offering explanations to the findings.     

Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates

The present paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four conditional volatility models applied to the European Monetary System (EMS) exchange rates. In order to provide improved volatility forecasts, the four models’ forecasts are combined through simple averaging, an ordinary least squares model, and an artificial neural network. The results support the EGARCH specification especially after the foreign exchange crisis of August 1993. The superiority of the EGARCH model is consistent with the nature of the EMS as a managed float regime. The ANN model performed better during the August 1993 crisis especially in terms of root mean absolute prediction error.     

TESTING THE NET BUYING PRESSURE HYPOTHESIS DURING THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS: EVIDENCE FROM HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS

We investigate net buying pressure in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index options market during the Asian financial crisis from July 1997 to August 1998. Our findings suggest that during this period, the dramatic changes in volatility overwhelmed the dynamics of supply and demand in the options market. The extremely high realized volatility drove market participants' expectations about future market volatility in the early months of the crisis. Findings during the late‐crisis, pre‐crisis, and post‐crisis periods are consistent with the net buying pressure hypothesis.     

East Asia and Europe during the 1997 Asian collapse: a clinical study of a financial crisis

Asian stock markets are compared with European markets before and during the 1997 Asian crisis. The clinical issue is whether regional inter-dependence became larger around the crisis, fomenting investor fears of contagion and reducing asset values because of lower diversification potential. Statistical measures are developed to aid in this inquiry. We find that European and East Asian countries were not susceptible to volatility contagion in the pre-crisis era but that susceptibility increased significantly with the onset of the crisis. Covariances, correlations, and volatilities increased from the pre-crisis to the crisis period in both regions, but the percentage increases were much larger in Asia. Diversification potential was better in Asia than in Europe before the crisis; this was reversed during the crisis. The observed decline in diversification potency in Asia is reason enough for large declines in asset values though one cannot prove, of course, that it was the cause rather than the effect of the crisis. Exchange rate volatility played a major role.     

Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises

We examine the role of both the volatility and levels of exchange rates in the determination of multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) investments using a unique Korean dataset. These data provide a natural laboratory due to the Korean experience of a severe financial crisis in the late nineties. We find, first, that the behavior of foreign investors in Korea has changed following the 1997 crisis. The change in foreign direct investment (FDI) in response to exchange rate volatility is robust, while that to exchange rate level is quite mixed, which is consistent with recently developed real option-based FDI theory. Second, the effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is persistent, whereas that of misalignment of level is only temporary, suggesting that MNEs regard volatility as a more generic determinant of foreign investment than misalignment of the exchange rate level. Third, we find strong evidence of nonlinearity between uncertainty and FDI, which may shed some light on why existing literature shows mixed results on the relation between exchange rate variables and FDI.     

Evidence of herding and positive feedback trading for mutual funds in emerging Asian countries

When analysing the behavior of investors, the emphasis is usually on positive feedback and herding behavior, and the existing literature abounds with studies on the domestic strategy of mutual funds or on their impact. Due to the advantages in terms of the data, many studies investigate US data. However, with the increased flows of capital into emerging markets, studying the behavior of international mutual funds in emerging markets has become more and more important. Nevertheless, studies involving emerging markets are relatively rare. This study examines whether the positive feedback effect and herding behavior exist in Asian markets based on mutual fund data covering the period from 1996 to 2004. The long period enables us to test the sensitivities under the following four conditions, namely the capital volatility (volatile vs. stable), the degree of suffering during the Asian crisis (more suffering vs. less suffering), and the timing of the Asian crisis (pre-, during, and post-crisis), using the exchange rate regime. It was found in this study that mutual fund inflows into the Asian market were attracted by positive stock returns and currency appreciation. Furthermore, it was found that the positive feedback effect and herding behavior did exist in the Asian markets. However, the extent of the above behavior is not the same under different conditions.     

信息传递效率、货币传染与东亚汇率波动溢出分析

本文运用Cheung和Ng交叉相关系数方法,对东亚六国货币①——人民币、日元、韩元、泰国铢、新加坡元和林吉特的名义美元汇率波动溢出进行检验,发现东亚汇率波动溢出普遍存在且具有不对称性和多层次溢出特征。实证结果还表明,日元交易商能更加有效处理来自人民币、韩元、泰铢、新加坡元和林吉特五种货币的信息,而人民币交易商对处理来自日元、泰铢、新加坡元等货币的信息效率不高。     

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.     

A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis

Comovements of exchange rates before and during Asian financial crisis are examined using cross-spectral methodology. The paper proposes and implements a simple frequency-domain-based test for contagion that avoids biases of the correlation breakdown tests used in the extant literature. The Asian crisis is found to be manifest in greater comovements along high-frequency components. Calculated changes in the high-frequency portion of the covariance indicate a contagion for 48 out of the possible 66 pairs of countries in the sample.     

Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis

We investigate the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in major currency markets during the recent global financial crisis. We first present an alternative method for determining the changes in economic states by endogenously estimating crisis thresholds. Second, we assess which macroeconomic indicator gave the earliest warning signal for the upcoming contraction. Third, we investigate whether there is a systematic change in the volatility reaction of exchange rates to news during the crisis period. We find that the estimated logistic transition function based on the housing starts data exhibits the earliest warning signal compared to other indicators. Our results suggest that although volatility response to most news indicators is larger in expansion, currency market reaction to new home sales and Fed funds rate news is larger in the crisis period. We attribute this finding to the context-specific relevance of the housing and credit sectors in the evolution of the global financial crisis.     

Cointegration and causality in the Asian and emerging foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the 1990s financial crises

This article examines the cointegration level, changes in the existence and directions of causality of the foreign exchange (FX) rates in the Asian and emerging markets during the 1990s financial crises. Engle and Granger's simple bivariate and Johansen's multivariate cointegrations are applied to the FX rates for the 1994 Mexican, 1997 Asian, 1998 Russian, and 1999 Brazilian crises. In addition, the article conducts the Granger causality test and impulse response analysis to examine the causality pattern in all the FX rates. The analysis shows most of the pre-Mexican causality disappears and significant numbers of new causality emerge in the 1994 Mexican crisis while the 1997 Asian crisis generates significant spillover effects into the later part of the 1998 Russian and 1999 Brazilian crises.     

International equity flows and country funds

This study investigates the relationships between U.S. equity flows in foreign countries and returns of closed-end country funds for emerging Latin American markets, emerging Asian markets and developed markets. The major issues addressed are (1) relationships between flows and fund returns based on two basic models—information contribution and feedback trading effects, (2) the role of volatility in these relationships, and (3) the effects of the Asian crisis. Basic findings include: (1) information contribution (past flows affect returns) and feedback trading arguments (past returns affect flows) are supported; (2) strong evidence is found for the market segmentation argument rather than the investor sentiment argument; (3) there exists strong evidence of significant volatility effects under information contribution and feedback trading; (4) the Asian crisis effects are important but limited to Asian funds.     

汇率制度、资本流动与金融危机:理论和实证分析——东亚金融危机视角

20世纪90年代,几乎所有发生金融危机的国家当时都实行固定或钉住汇率制度。东亚金融危机爆发前,东亚各经济体大多实行钉住美元的相对固定汇率制,大量国际资本流入,本币严重高估,经常项目巨额逆差,宏观经济严重失衡。在汇率贬值的预期下,国际投机资本对东亚经济体货币发动攻击,大量资本流出,受攻击的经济体外汇储备耗尽,最终导致实际钉住美元的固定汇率制崩溃,金融危机爆发,蔓延成危及东亚乃至世界的金融危机。东亚金融危机的事实表明,金融危机、资本流动和汇率制度之间存在着密切关系。     

UK imports,third country effect and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the asymmetric ARDL method

This paper examines the role of exchange rate volatility in determining real imports. As a robustness check, it further explores the impact of the recent global financial crisis which is a period characterized by heightened exchange rate volatility. More specifically, we investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK real imports from Germany, Japan and the US during the period January 1991–March 2013. In contrast to most studies which focus on bilateral trade, we additionally explore the third country exchange rate volatility effect on UK imports. To capture the nonlinear features which often characterize macroeconomic data, we employ the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Our results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role and reveal that there is a significant effect of the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding is consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. Finally, we find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports both in bilateral tests and in tests which account for the third country exchange rate volatility.     

International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian markets

This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis seven Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) over the period 1993:01–2015:11. GARCH models and Markov switching specifications with time-varying transition probabilities are estimated in addition to a benchmark linear model. The evidence suggests that high (low) exchange rate volatility is associated with equity (bond) inflows from the Asian countries toward the US in all cases, with the exception of the Philippines. Therefore, capital controls could be an effective tool to stabilise the foreign exchange market in countries where flows affect exchange rate volatility.     

Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks

This paper investigates the dynamics of the real exchange rate and relative output among the US and five of its top six trading partners since the collapse of Bretton Woods. It employs long-run restrictions to identify the usual suspect macroeconomic shocks and their relative importance for exchange rate fluctuations. An improvement of the econometric application is that it allows for the contribution of each shock to the real exchange rate and relative output to vary over time. While the volatility of US output – both total and relative to that of the UK or Canada – is estimated to have substantially reduced since the mid-1980s, consistent with the Great Moderation findings of many others, the volatility of real exchange rates has experienced a gradual and continuous increase over the same period. Monetary shocks account for only a small fraction of these dynamics, although they do track well the increase in volatility of US output during the Great Inflation period. It is supply-type shocks that seem to be more important for the relative output volatility reductions of the mid-1980s. Conversely, demand shocks seem to account for the largest portion of the volatility increases in the real exchange rate. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both volatilities increase during the 2007 financial crisis and the ensuing 2008–2009 Great Recession – periods associated with higher economic uncertainty.