从经济学视角看电力监管合谋

从经济学的视角,运用委托一代理理论、扩展的“经济人”假设以及信息不对称理论对电力监管合谋行为及其成因进行了系统描述。论证表明,电力监管合谋有可能存在于电力行业的发电、输配电以及市场交易各环节,监管者作为扩展意义上的“经济人”,有可能与企业形成合谋联盟;而信息不对称的存在则为合谋这种违规行为创造了实现的机会。     

统计推断中的Fuzzy信息

本文以一个正态总体均值的假设检验为例,说明统计推断中一般存在有 Fuzzy 信息,并揭示了 Fuzzy 信息的作用。首次指出了对统计推断结果进行Fuzzy 信息分析的必要性。     

Fuzzy信息与熵

本文首先引入 Fuzzy 测度的相关概率,然后定义 Fuzzy 测度空间的熵,进而讨论了 Fuzzy 测度空间熵的性质和信息空间的熵。     

基于平衡计分卡的人力资源信息系统绩效模糊综合评价

构建了基于平衡计分卡的人力资源信息系统绩效评价指标体系,并且运用层次分析法确定了指标体系的权重,进而以模糊数学原理为基础构建了人力资源信息系统绩效综合评价模型,并对大连宏孚集团的人力资源信息系统绩效水平进行了评价与分析,找出了大连宏孚集团人力资源信息系统在运行中存在的问题,并提出了相应的发展策略。     

Fuzzy logic in manufacturing: A review of literature and a specialized application

Manufacturing decisions inherently face uncertainties and imprecision. Fuzzy logic, and tools based on fuzzy logic, allow for the inclusion of uncertainties and imperfect information in decision making models, making them well suited for manufacturing decisions. In this study, we first review the progression in the use of fuzzy tools in tackling different manufacturing issues during the past two decades. We then apply fuzzy linear programming to a less emphasized, but important issue in manufacturing, namely that of product mix prioritization. The proposed algorithm, based on linear programming with fuzzy constraints and integer variables, provides several advantages to existing algorithm as it carries increased ease in understanding, in use, and provides flexibility in its application.     

企业节能减排绩效的模糊数学评价模型

企业节能减排绩效评价具有综合性、层次性和模糊性的特点,利用目前传统的评价方法对其进行评价存在一些不足之处。构建了企业节能减排绩效的模糊数学评价模型,将模糊层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合,对企业节能减排绩效进行评价。运用模糊层次分析法确定各指标的权重,然后运用模糊综合评价法对企业节能减排绩效给出定量的综合评价。实证分析验证了此方法的良好效果。     

管理者提升商数通用性测度指标的确立与模糊评价

内部提拔作为人力资源管理的一项重要内容经常被误操作，部分原因缘于组织在提拔管理者之前较少评估其提升商数，以往的胜任力研究虽然也在这方面做过一些工作，但非常零碎。为改变这一状况，本文做了一些探索性研究，集中表现在两个方面：一是找出并构建反映管理者提升商数的通用性指标体系；二是根据这些指标体系对管理者提升商数做出模糊评价。     

运用模糊综合评价法对中小型纺织企业现场管理综合评价

为了全面、客观地反映中小型纺织企业的现场管理水平,提出采用模糊综合评价法对中小型纺织生产企业进行评价,该评价方法可操作性强,准确性高,能够全面反映中小型纺织企业现场管理状况,及时发现现场管理工作中存在的薄弱环节,对不断改善和提高中小型纺织企业现场管理水平具有重要的意义。     

基于组合赋权的城市健康舒适体检模糊综合评价

为明确城市体检后续更新工作中的提升重点和主要任务,系统、准确地提升城市健康舒适环境水平,以华北H市城市体检中健康舒适部分为研究对象,建立城市健康舒适评价模型,通过组合赋权确定健康舒适指标体系中16个指标的综合权值,运用模糊综合评价方法对健康舒适进行综合评估,并依据所得到的H市健康舒适待提升等级给出合理化建议。结果表明:设施类中的社区养老服务设施覆盖率是影响城市健康舒适性的主要因素,其次是建筑类中的老旧小区改造达标率和城中村改造启动率。H市健康舒适的待提升等级为“Ⅳ”,等级较高,表明H市的健康舒适性提升空间很大,建议加快完善社区养老、卫生等基础公共服务设施、提升中小学幼儿园教育质量、推进老旧小区和城中村改造。将基于组合赋权的模糊综合评价方法应用于城市健康舒适性的体检中,其结果可为城市建设和更新发展提供有力依据。     

Consumers’ willingness to pay for eco-friendly apples under different labels: Evidences from a lab experiment

An experiment was conducted in France to evaluate the impact of health and environmental information on consumers’ choices between conventional and organic apples. Results show that additional and precise messages about both pesticides use and pesticides residues significantly impact consumers’ choices between both products. The experiment also studied the effect of a new label signaling apples that only use few pesticides compared to conventional apples. With elicited willingness-to-pay, we show that the introduction of this new label increases the average participants’ surplus whatever the information context for participants, because of a higher quality compared to conventional apples and a lower price compared to organic products. In order to complement this label, a minimum-quality standard imposing the use of few pesticides is socially optimal when initial participants’ knowledge is limited.     

Corporate hierarchy and vertical information flow inside the firm—a behavioral view

Little is known about how corporate hierarchies influence managers' propensity to pass information upward within the firm. Two streams of literature arrive at seemingly conflicting and untested predictions. Information economists maintain that middle managers pass more suggestions up the firm's line of command as the corporate hierarchy increases in order to avoid corporate omission errors. In contrast, scholars of organizational psychology suggest that hierarchies lead to evaluation apprehension and foster a perceived lack of control among mid‐level managers, leading to their reduced willingness to, and interest in, passing information up within the organization. Drawing on field data and model‐guided experimental studies, we provide original empirical evidence for the relevance of all the mechanisms above, and we delineate the conditions under which either mechanism prevails. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应用灰色理论和模糊数学方法分析和评价进口液化天然气的安全和质量状态

对进口液化天然气（LNG）涉及的各种安全和质量状态指标进行了量的分级,然后应用灰色系统理论和模糊数学方法,建立了进口LNG安全和质量状态分析系统：并用建立的灰色理论分析评价系统对深圳和莆田口岸进口的LNG进行了安全和质量状态分析。     

农村公共产品多元主体供给的制度约束——马甲村路灯供给案例研究

本文选取制度视角,以内在制度和外在制度为分析框架,对马甲村路灯供给案例进行实证研究后表明：内在制度对农村公共产品多元主体供给模式的选择将会产生重要影响,因此,尽管外在制度具有一定的强制性,但如果缺乏内在制度的配合,将难以通过外在制度有效实施。在此基础上,本文从区域经济发展层面进一步分析了现阶段多元主体供给公共产品的可取性,研究提出了“二元准公共产品”的概念,并从多维触发、重点触发和协同触发,探讨了农村公共产品多元主体供给的“触发模式”。     

模糊随机环境下考虑碳限额和碳交易机制的库存配送问题研究

本文以高端物流服务集成商与库存配送服务商为研究对象,以集成商的供应链网络成本最小、服务商的运营成本最小且准时制供应为目标,深入研究考虑碳限额、碳交易机制以及残次品处理的多供应商选择多产品多阶段库存配送问题,构建了基于动态规划的双层库存配送模型。利用双层全局--局部--邻域粒子群算法 (Bi-GLNPSO) 设计了模型求解方案,并通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性和合理性。探讨了碳限额和碳交易机制对总成本和库存配送决策的影响。     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Incorporating uncertainty into a supplier selection problem

Supplier selection is an important strategic supply chain design decision. Incorporating uncertainty of demand and supplier capacity into the optimization model results in a robust selection of suppliers. A two-stage stochastic programming (SP) model and a chance-constrained programming (CCP) model are developed to determine a minimal set of suppliers and optimal order quantities with consideration of business volume discounts. Both models include several objectives and strive to balance a small number of suppliers with the risk of not being able to meet demand. The SP model is scenario-based and uses penalty coefficients whereas the CCP model assumes a probability distribution and constrains the probability of not meeting demand. Both formulations improve on a deterministic mixed integer linear program and give the decision maker a more complete picture of tradeoffs between cost, system reliability and other factors. We present Pareto-optimal solutions for a sample problem to demonstrate the benefits of the SP and CCP models. In order to describe the tradeoffs between costs and risks in an analytical form, we use multi-parametric programming techniques to more completely analyze the alternative Pareto-optimal supplier selection solutions in the CCP model. This analysis gives insights into the robustness of the solutions with respect to number of suppliers, costs and probability of not meeting demand.