Long-Term Care Insurance and Life Insurance Demand

This article investigates the interaction between life insurance and long-term care insurance markets on the demand side. In the model utility depends on both consumption and bequest, and utility from consumption is contingent on the state of health. While the demand for life insurance increases both with decreasing income and with a rising degree of altruism, the influences of these two parameters on the demand for long-term care insurance are ambiguous. If the utility shock arising from disability declines, both insurance demands will rise.     

Predictive Modeling in Long-Term Care Insurance

The accurate prediction of long-term care insurance (LTCI) mortality, lapse, and claim rates is essential when making informed pricing and risk management decisions. Unfortunately, academic literature on the subject is sparse and industry practice is limited by software and time constraints. In this article, we review current LTCI industry modeling methodology, which is typically Poisson regression with covariate banding/modification and stepwise variable selection. We test the claim that covariate banding improves predictive accuracy, examine the potential downfalls of stepwise selection, and contend that the assumptions required for Poisson regression are not appropriate for LTCI data. We propose several alternative models specifically tailored toward count responses with an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Using data from a large LTCI provider, we evaluate the predictive capacity of random forests and generalized linear and additive models with zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and Tweedie errors. These alternatives are compared to previously developed Poisson regression models.

Our study confirms that variable modification is unnecessary at best and automatic stepwise model selection is dangerous. After demonstrating severe overprediction of LTCI mortality and lapse rates under the Poisson assumption, we show that a Tweedie GLM enables much more accurate predictions. Our Tweedie regression models improve average predictive accuracy (measured by several prediction error statistics) over Poisson regression models by as much as four times for mortality rates and 17 times for lapse rates.     

Narrow Framing and Long-Term Care Insurance

We propose a model of narrow framing in insurance and test it using data from a new module we designed and fielded in the Health and Retirement Study. We show that respondents subject to narrow framing are substantially less likely to buy long-term care insurance than average. This effect is much larger than the effects of risk aversion or adverse selection, and it offers a new explanation for why people underinsure their later-life care needs.     

Temporal Profitability and Pricing of Long-Term Care Insurance

Equilibrium models of dynamic insurance markets can be bifurcated according to underlying assumptions about whether or not insurers commit to long‐term contracts. The difference is substantial in that commitment models imply price highballing over time while no‐commitment models indicate price lowballing. Extant empirical studies provide mixed evidence, however. We use long‐term care (LTC) insurance data, which allow us both to better control for heterogeneous, observable risk, to examine dynamic profitability and pricing in a relatively young, innovative insurance market. Our tests generally indicate temporal price lowballing, thereby providing support for the no‐commitment models.     

长期护理保险的理论研究:进展与前景

随着中国步入老龄化社会、家庭结构小型化和空巢家庭增加,导致了传统家庭养老模式的转变,老年人对专业化护理的需求日益增长。长期护理状态发生的不确定性以及专业护理费用的攀升,使得长期护理风险愈加突出,并将成为一种重要的社会风险。因此,开发长期护理保险产品在我国存在巨大的市场空间。本文从长期护理保险的需求、定价以及运作模式等方面回顾了国内外长期护理保险的理论研究进展,同时提出了需要进一步研究的领域和方向。     

Asymmetric Information, Long-Term Care Insurance, and Annuities: The Case for Bundled Contracts

This article examines the markets for long-term care insurance and annuities when there is asymmetric information and there are costs of administering contracts. Individuals differ in terms of their risk aversion. Risk-averse individuals take more care of their health and are relatively high risk in the annuities market and relatively low risk in the long-term care insurance market. In the long-term care insurance market, both separating and partial-pooling equilibria are possible. However, in the stand-alone annuity market, only separating equilibria are possible. We show, consistent with the extant empirical research, that in the presence of administration costs the more risk-averse individuals may buy relatively more long-term care insurance and more annuity coverage. Under the same assumptions, we show that equilibria exist with bundled contracts that Pareto dominate the outcomes with stand-alone contracts and are robust to competition from stand-alone contracts. The remaining empirical puzzle is to explain why bundled contracts are such a small share of the voluntary annuity market.     

社保模式下实物给付型长期护理保险发展瓶颈及对策

伴随着相关政策的出台,社保模式下的长期护理保险制度逐渐浮出水面,并在各试点地区开始尝试实物给付型长期护理保险,以满足消费者多层次、多样化的需求。随着老年人护理需求和意愿不断增长,长期护理保险的市场需求正在逐步扩大。但是,和巨大的潜在市场需求相比,长期护理保险市场的供给相对缺失,试点实践中存在给付方式单一、法律法规缺失、筹资机制不完善、护理设施及资源不足等诸多问题。借鉴国外经验,本文针对以上问题提出了完善建议,以期为我国社保模式下实物给付型长期护理保险的发展提供可鉴思路。     

国际小额保险模式问题研究

小额保险发展的问题目前已经引起了国际社会的广泛关注.中国近年来小额保险计划的发展势头也正在抬升,但相关的研究工作还不多.我们发现,国际上已有的研究在介绍国际小额保险的模式经验时显得纷繁复杂,还缺乏较好参考标准对各种模式进行更加清晰的分类.本文则对该项工作作了尝试性的补充,并就如何认识模式问题提出初步观点.     

Estimating the Strategic Value of Long-Term Forward Purchase Contracts Using Auction Models

We demonstrate how an auction model can be used in a traditional capital budgeting context to assign a value to the strategic advantage of long-term forward contracts. Research in the field of industrial organization has pointed to the danger of ex post opportunistic bargaining as a motivation for the use of forward contracts in natural resources and manufactured products, but no operational procedure exists for estimating the value secured by these contracts. Arbitrage methods for valuing forward contracts assume a competitive market in which the factors creating the bargaining problem and motivating the use of long-term contracts are not present. Use of the model is illustrated in the case of take-or-pay contracts for natural gas.     

您了解中长期出口信用保险吗?

中长期出口信用保险是中国出口信用保险公司为支持企业走出去量身定做的金融产品。它旨在鼓励我国出口企业积极参与国际竞争,特别是高科技、高附加值的机电产品和成套设备等资本性货物的出口以及承包海外工程项目:支持银行等金融机构为出口贸易提供信贷融资。     

国内居民个人寿险产品购买行为的规范分析

今天,个人寿险产品的购买成为越来越普及的一种消费活动,按着消费者购买行为规范分析的框架,分析发现:个人寿险产品兼有选购品和非渴求商品的特征;其消费者的购买决策行为属于一种“高介入度-理性”的活动;收入、教育水平、年龄、家庭生命周期、职业、产品提供的利益、消费态度和顾客品牌忠诚度等成为影响消费者对其进行购买的主要因素。     

社会互动与健康保险购买意愿关系研究

本文系统检验了社会互动对受访者购买健康保险意愿的影响。结果表明:网络互动和传统互动均显著提高消费者为自己购买健康保险的意愿,而且网络互动的影响力更大;网络互动对为父母健康保险的购买意愿没有解释力,传统互动则显著提高了消费者为父母购买健康保险的意愿。本文在检验影响健康保险购买意愿的传统因素之外,重点关注社会互动的影响,为分析个体的保险决策提供新的视角。     

Health Care Reform: Separating Insurance from Income Redistribution

Most systems of health care financing in EU member states currentlyinclude elements of income redistribution. The paper analyzesthe effects of shifting this kind of redistribution to the taxsystem and argues that this reform could create two types ofefficiency gains. On the expenditure side, it would facilitatethe adoption of more incentive-compatible insurance contracts,for example through the introduction of copayment schemes. Onthe revenue side, income redistribution through the general taxsystem is likely to imply a shadow price of public funds thatis lower than if redistribution is carried out through wage-basedinsurance contributions.     

农户购买天气保险意愿的影响因素分析

农业保险制度是农业保障体系中的重要组成部分,天气保险作为其创新形式之一,已被应用于农业风险管理。农户天气保险措施的选择需求因素包括农户区域和自身特征、农户家庭特征、需求诱致因素、自然禀赋特征。本文利用江苏省318份有效问卷的调查数据,采用二元选择模型来分析农户购买天气保险的影响因素。实证结果表明:受教育程度高、家庭人均年收入、听说过天气保险、贷款用于种植业生产、天气灾害损失严重以及人均耕地面积多等因素对天气保险的需求总体起到正向作用。     

海南试点社会性长期护理保险的思考

随着人口深度老龄化、少子化和不婚化三大趋势加速到来,养老问题尤其是居家养老缺乏照护等问题越来越突出,在全社会推行长期护理保险显得尤为迫切.本文分析了海南省商业性长护险发展现状以及开办社会性长护险的客观需求,并提出了推行社会性长护险的工作思路和实现路径.     

长期护理保险的家庭溢出效应研究综述及对我国的启示

家庭成员与老年人的护理选择有着复杂及重要的交互作用。本文回顾和梳理了国内外学术界关于长期护理保险家庭溢出效应的理论与实证研究成果,作为我国构建长期护理保险制度的参考,最后提出促进国内长期护理保险的建议。     

我国长期护理保险实施实物给付方式探讨

长期护理保险的给付方式主要有现金给付和实物给付,针对我国面临的老年人和重慢病人的＂护理危机＂,长期护理保险实施实物给付比现金给付更符合被保险人的需求。但长期护理保险实物给付的顺利实施,需要充分利用社会资源,促进社区护理网络的形成,进行长期护理保险创新,刺激保险需求和防范道德风险等。     

长期护理制度的启示

从2000年开始,中国大陆地区逐渐步入了高龄化社会。近些年,伴随着人口、家庭以及就业结构的变化,传统的养老模式也面临着转变和挑战,而长期护理保险则是突破传统家庭养老和护理模式的有益选择。中国大陆地区目前还没有建立完全意义上的长期护理保险制度,而美国、德国、日本以及我国台湾地区的长期护理保险制度发展较早且较为完善,因此有必要借鉴和学习这些国家和地区的发展经验,从中得到启示,探讨我国长期护理保险制度的发展方向以及建立该模式的具体方式和可行性分析。