Optimal inflation target under uncertainty

We derive an optimal state-contingent inflation target in an economy under uncertainty. This inflation target can improve inefficiencies stemming from two sources: the lack of commitment to predetermined policies and the lack of coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities. We then discuss the pros and cons of our proposal compared with the solution proposed by Beetsma and Bovenberg [Beetsma, R.M.W.J., Bovenberg, A.L., 2001. When does an inflation target yield the second best? Scandinavian Journal of Economics 103, 119–126], paying special attention to their practical feasibility. We will show that in some countries where there is a highly independent central bank, our proposal is more attractive.     

Note on uncertainty and socially excessive entry

It is well known that under general conditions entry into imperfectly competitive markets is usually excessive. This note explores the effects of uncertainty on this result. Specifically, a firm that incurs entry costs might fail to successfully enter a market. In this environment, it is found that the previous conditions might not hold when there is uncertainty. That is, with uncertainty entry might be socially insufficient (instead of excessive) by more than one firm.     

Relative uncertainty aversion and additively representable set rankings

This paper proposes a definition of relative uncertainty aversion for decision models under complete uncertainty. It is shown that, for a large class of decision rules characterized by a set of plausible axioms, the new criterion yields a complete ranking of those rules with respect to the relative degree of uncertainty aversion they represent. In addition, we address a combinatorial question that arises in this context, and we examine conditions for the additive representability of our rules.     

新旧动能转换下山西农业与现代服务业耦合发展的路径选择

山西农业与现代服务业具有相互影响和相互促进作用.在新旧动能转换背景下,对山西省2014—2018年农业和现代服务业发展的主要指标在运用层次分析法和熵值法综合确立权重的基础上,进一步通过耦合协调度模型对二者进行实证分析.结果表明山西农业与现代服务业的发展处于轻度失调状态.深化标准化服务体、创新科技服务、开发信息服务、推进品牌服务、强化职业教育服务和创新金融服务将有助于提升山西农业和现代服务业的耦合发展质量.     

Overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy

This study analyzes the overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy by estimating constant parameter and time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models. Global and Korea-specific uncertainty are measured using the method proposed by Mumtaz and Theodoridis (2017). A rise in both the uncertainty measures has an adverse impact on the Korean economy by lowering stock market returns and output growth, and by creating inflation caused by currency depreciation. Quantitatively, the domestic uncertainty shock exercises a larger effect on the Korean economy than the global uncertainty shock, as the former uncertainty shock accounts for about one-fifth of output variation and the latter accounts for about one-tenth. Regarding time-varying effects, substantial increases in domestic uncertainty during the Asian Financial Crisis and global uncertainty during the Global Financial Crisis explain a significant part of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea during those periods. This is because of the increased volatility of uncertainty shocks during these periods, rather than a structural change in the way these shocks affect the economy.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.     

关于西部大开发的几点思考

或有事项越来越多地存在于企业经营活动中 ,只有把握了或有事项的关键特征———“不确定性” ,才可以对或有事项作出科学的判断和相应合理的处理。或有事项属于“不确定性”事项。因此 ,或有事项的准则规范要受“不确定性会计”理论的指导。     

Inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus in Iran——Using TARCH model

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran economy using monthly data of Iran over the period 1990-2009. TARCH model is used to peruse the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the economic instruments. The result indicates that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Also, the authors investigate from the Granger causality test that inflation is Granger causality of inflation uncertainty.     

Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from Korea

This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much more closely to actual language use and better reflect the economic environment of Korea, which is classified as a small open economy. After shocks to EPU being identified, we employ these shocks to estimate the impulse responses using local projections. Unlike the existing measure, our results show that shocks to EPU lead to a significant decline in macroeconomic aggregates such as output, consumption, investment, and employment. Thus our results suggest a refinement of the EPU index in general for other countries accordingly. We also develop policy-specific uncertainty indices and show that they capture important historical events related to the corresponding policies, such as monetary and fiscal measures.     

Efficient regulated entry in competitive markets with demand uncertainty

It is well-known that, in a competitive market, the number of firms in a free-entry equilibrium is the efficient one. This paper shows that this textbook result breaks down if firms face demand uncertainty. In this case, entry is excessive relative to the optimum and, therefore, regulation improves market efficiency. This occurs because, in the absence of regulation, entry is motivated by the profits that firms expect to receive if market demand turns out to be high. However, when choosing the optimal regulated entry, the planner also considers that some surplus is lost if demand turns out to be low.     

Economic policy uncertainty and household consumption: Evidence from Chinese households

We find that households reduce their consumption in response to higher economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Compared with lower income households, high income group is more severely affected which can be explained by the portfolio choice of illiquid asset and liquid asset. In addition, the uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, well-educated and urban households. The impact of EPU on household consumption is also persistent. Holding more liquid asset and commercial insurance represent important channels in mitigating the negative effect of EPU on household consumption.     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia,Lao PDR,and Vietnam

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam. Inflation uncertainty is estimated as the conditional variance in a family of generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. This paper finds that inflation causes inflation uncertainty in these countries, which supports the argument of Friedman (1977). Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that inflation uncertainty causes inflation only in Lao PDR, which implies that Cukierman and Meltzer's (1986) argument can be supported in Lao PDR. This paper also investigates how inflation in the United States is related to inflation and inflation uncertainty in Indochina countries. The result shows that inflation positively responds to US inflation only in Cambodia.     

在不确定性环境下企业的战略选择

企业战略是企业面对复杂而又激烈变化的经营环境,为求得长期生存与不断发展而进行的总体性、长远性的谋划,它决定着企业的发展方向。今天,企业面临着前所未有、变化莫测的竞争环境,如果说以前的环境具有可预测性,那么今天的环境却是难以预测的。但无论怎样企业要生存要发展,就     

Tariffs versus Quotas under Market Price Uncertainty

This paper compares the welfare effects of a tariff and a quota in an imperfectly competitive market when demand is uncertain and policy must be chosen before the uncertainty is resolved. The model assumes a Cournot duopoly market with linear demand, additive uncertainty, homogeneous products, and constant marginal costs. It is shown that the optimal policy is autarky for high levels of uncertainty, a quota at the free-trade level for intermediate levels, and a tariff at low levels. JEL no. F13     

The economic uncertainty and private investment nexus in Iran： Application of the EGARCH model and the ARDL approach

This paper examines the impact of economic uncertainty on private investment in lran. In addition, the authors also examine the impact of other economic factors on the level of private investment. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） approach is applied to investigate the relationship of these variables. The data span is from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate that economic uncertainty has a significant negative effect on private investment. Public investment and the availability of financing have a significant positive effect on private investment, while the impact of output gap and the exchange rate is negative. Hence, government should aim at creating a stable macro-economic environment in order to makes private investment attractive.     

Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea

This paper investigates the effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea via structural VARs. The results show that both foreign and domestic policy uncertainty shocks exert negative and significant impacts on South Korea. Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks are found to be more dominant than domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks in influencing the Korean output. The results also indicate that economic policy uncertainty that originates from foreign countries is a significant source of disturbance to the Korean economy, but domestic policy uncertainty plays a rather limited role in explaining Korean business fluctuations.     

The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment

The paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the choice of entry mode of enterprises' Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI). Based on a framework of heterogeneous enterprises, this paper first theoretically investigates the impact mechanism. The theoretical predictions are then empirically tested using rich micro-level data of Chinese enterprises from 2000 to 2013. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant effect on the entry mode choice of Chinese OFDI. Specifically, when the economic policy uncertainty decreases, enterprises choose Cross-border mergers and acquisitions mode with higher propensity than the Greenfield investments mode of OFDI. Further analysis indicates that the impact is heterogeneous based on ownership type, region, factor intensity, productivity level, financing abilities, and host country development level. Statistical robustness checks strengthen our findings. Our study has implications for researchers and government policymakers, especially in developing economies similar to China. The results could help device policies that encourage enterprises to choose a specific mode of ODFI. The study also provides novel insights for Chinese enterprises to "go out" and the Chinese economy to realize high-quality development.     

Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence

This study investigates the connectedness among three types of economic policy uncertainties, namely monetary, fiscal, and trade uncertainties, between China and the US. We used the spillover index measurement and the frequency-domain decomposition approach to detect the spillover effects of these categorical uncertainties from both the time- and frequency-domain perspectives. The results suggest that the spillover effects have time-varying characteristics, and some major events could sharply increase the spillover indices. More spillovers are mainly observed in the short-term, whereas the impacts of the medium- and long-term are limited. Furthermore, the leader of the spillover is monetary policy in China, but fiscal policy in the US, the spillovers of all uncertainties mainly exist domestically, apart from the US trade policy uncertainty. These results provide crucial implications for policymakers and investors, who should pay more attention to short-term spillovers and monetary policy uncertainty, which can mitigate their vulnerability to policy uncertainty shocks.     

新形势下地方高校人才引进对策

针对地方高校在当今人才工作新形势下存在的问题,提出加强高校高层次人才队伍建设的对策:"外"要加大宣传,拓展渠道;"内"要增强意识,健全人才引进和培育工作机制,用制度、事业、感情、待遇来吸引和留住人才。