Feeder Cattle Options: Where’s the Beef?

Feeder cattle is one of the most important commodities in the livestock industry worldwide. Nonetheless, beef production is subject to many uncertainties; therefore, the risk management tools that agents use must be efficient. This article discusses the financial options available in the Brazilian futures market to feeder cattle producers and describes the best risk pricing model to determine the option premium. Our results consider several option pricing models and different types of volatility. The best pricing is obtained with the model of Bjerksund and Stensland with the implied volatility.     

Pricing Eurodollar futures options with the Ho and Lee and Black,Derman, and Toy models: An empirical comparison

This article compares empirically the Ho and Lee (1986) and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete-time debt option pricing models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options over the period from March 1997 through February 1998 using daily data. The results indicate that both models performed well. The average absolute pricing errors over the sample period were less than one tick (0.01) in every case. The Black, Derman, and Toy model slightly outperformed the Ho and Lee model in the pricing of in-the-money call options and out-of-the-money put options over the period studied. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 291–306, 1999     

新精算规定下的万能险公平价值问题分析

基于万能险的金融风险,给出了个人账户的价值模型,运用实物期权的基本思想与方法,在连续死亡效力情形下建立了万能险保单的公平价值模型,得到了公平定价的封闭形式解,实证分析表明,新精算规定的收费是公平的,模型结果与实际相符合。     

Information content of cross‐sectional option prices: A comparison of alternative currency option pricing models on the Japanese yen

This article implements a currency option pricing model for the general case of stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates, and jumps in an attempt to reconcile levels of risk‐neutral skewness and kurtosis with observed option prices on the Japanese yen and to analyze the information content of the cross section of option prices by investigating the hedging and pricing performance of various currency option pricing models. The study makes use of both a method of moments and a more traditional generalized‐least‐squares (GLS) estimation technique, taking advantage of the fact that methods of moments do not specifically require the use of cross‐sectional option prices, whereas GLS does. Results centered around the Asia economic crisis of 1997 and 1998 indicate that the cross section of option prices surprisingly does not appear to contain superior information as the two estimation techniques yield relatively similar results once idiosyncratic differences between them are acknowledged. Extensions of the G. Bakshi, C. Cao, and Z. Chen (1997) results to currencies are also provided. © 2006Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:33–59, 2006     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR PRICING CREDIT AND EQUITY DERIVATIVES

We propose a model which can be jointly calibrated to the corporate bond term structure and equity option volatility surface of the same company. Our purpose is to obtain explicit bond and equity option pricing formulas that can be calibrated to find a risk neutral model that matches a set of observed market prices. This risk neutral model can then be used to price more exotic, illiquid, or over‐the‐counter derivatives. We observe that our model matches the equity option implied volatility surface well since we properly account for the default risk in the implied volatility surface. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for the default risk and stochastic interest rate in equity option pricing by comparing our results to Fouque et al., which only accounts for stochastic volatility.     

Explaining Anomalies in Australia with a Five‐factor Asset Pricing Model

This paper compares the ability of three‐factor and five‐factor asset pricing models to explain the apparent profitability of a broad selection of anomalies in Australian equity returns. Rather than examining the fit of each model to common test portfolios, our focus is on the spread return to long–short trading strategies designed around so‐called anomalies. After documenting significant spread returns to 16 anomalies (including several not previously studied in Australia), the empirical analysis provides cautious support that the recently‐proposed investment and profitability factors have a role to play. The number of anomalies that remains after risk adjustment decreases under the five‐factor model. Further, while the magnitude of reduction in alpha is modest, our testing shows that it is statistically significant in many cases. However, both three‐factor and five‐factor models repeatedly fail the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken's (1989) (GRS) test, suggesting that the quest for a better asset pricing model is not yet complete.     

Option pricing for the transformed‐binomial class

This article generalizes the seminal Cox‐Ross‐Rubinstein (1979) binomial option pricing model to all members of the class of transformed‐binomial pricing processes. The investigation addresses issues related with asset pricing modeling, hedging strategies, and option pricing. Formulas are derived for (a) replicating or hedging portfolios, (b) risk‐neutral transformed‐binomial probabilities, (c) limiting transformed‐normal distributions, and (d) the value of contingent claims, including limiting analytical option pricing equations. The properties of the transformed‐binomial class of asset pricing processes are also studied. The results of the article are illustrated with several examples. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl. Fut Mark 26:759–787, 2006     

The Quanto Adjustment and the Smile

European quanto derivatives are usually priced using the well‐known quanto adjustment corresponding to the forward of the quantoed asset under the assumptions of the Black–Scholes model. In this article, I present the quanto adjustment corresponding to the local volatility model that allows pricing quanto derivatives consistently with the observed market equity skew and exchange rate smile. I then examine the model risk arising in the standard quanto adjustment by fitting the local volatility model to market data and then comparing the prices of European quanto euro derivatives on the Nikkei 225 index with those generated by the standard quanto adjustment. The results show that the standard quanto adjustment can be subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the local volatility model. I also compare the pricing performance of the local volatility model with a multivariate stochastic volatility model. The results show that when the correlation between the instantaneous variances associated with the underlying asset and the exchange rate is close to one, as it is the case when we consider historical data, there is little evidence of model risk for the local volatility model in the pricing of European quanto euro derivatives on the Nikkei 225 index. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:877–908, 2012     

Option Pricing When Jump Risk Is Systematic1

This paper generalizes the Merton jump-diffusion option pricing model to the case in which jump risk cannot be eliminated in the market portfolio. the option pricing formula is obtained using a general equilibrium asset pricing model. Since jump risk is systematic, the correlation of the underlying stock's jump with the market portfolio's jump affects the option price.     

资本资产定价模型的扩展及其在保险中的应用

传统的资本资产定价模型是在一系列过于严格化、理想化的条件下建立起来的。针对现实资本市场情况,通过对资本资产定价模型的应用条件的部分修改,如增加保险公司存在违约风险、交易费用和税收的条件,并且讨论交易费用分别为固定值和保费的函数时的情形以及税收分为固定值和变量的情形,对保费定价问题进行模型扩展。理论推导结果显示,在存在违约风险情况下,保险公司所收保费应该更低;承保费用越少,所需保费就越少;存在税负条件下的公平保费与税收水平有关。     

Currency risk in emerging equity markets

The paper develops an international capital asset-pricing model (ICAPM), which includes foreign currency risk, and examines the impact of capital market liberalisation on the pricing of risks. It applies the model to data from Pacific Basin financial markets and finds substantial evidence that not only currency risk is priced in both pre- and post-liberalisation periods, but the model is superior to one which does not include currency risk. This evidence suggests that an international capital asset-pricing model, which omits currency risk, will be misspecified. Furthermore, the results imply that since currency risk is priced and investors are compensated for bearing such risk they should not be discouraged by more flexible exchange rate regimes from investing in emerging markets.     

Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk

This paper develops a novel, general derivative pricing model which introduces a liquidity risk factor. The model variants we outline offer a sufficient degree of flexibility so as to enable the valuation of various types of derivative classes including futures, American options, and mortgage backed security options, whereas existing derivative models can only price liquidity risk in European derivatives. We validate the model with oil and gold futures data and compare it to a classical benchmark model void of any liquidity risk. We find that our model is significantly more accurate than the classical model for pricing both oil and gold contracts.     

EQUILIBRIUM ASSET AND OPTION PRICING UNDER JUMP DIFFUSION

This paper develops an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion. The model provides analytical formulas for an equity premium and a more general pricing kernel that links the physical and risk‐neutral densities. The model explains the two empirical phenomena of the negative variance risk premium and implied volatility smirk if market crashes are expected. Model estimation with the S&P 500 index from 1985 to 2005 shows that jump size is indeed negative and the risk aversion coefficient has a reasonable value when taking the jump into account.     

Are the East Asian markets integrated? Evidence from the ICAPM

We test a conditional international asset pricing model with both world market and domestic risk included as independent pricing factors for five East Asian markets, the US and World markets. We model second moments and risk exposures using a bi-diagonal multivariate GARCH(1,1) process. We document that this novel GARCH specification provides a significantly better fit of the return process than a standard diagonal specification. Although exposure to world market risk carries a significant premium across all markets, we find little support for the hypothesis that exposure to residual country risk is rewarded. However, residual country returns are significantly related to exchange rate changes. Hence, we find surprisingly little evidence of market segmentation in East Asia over the period 1985–1998.     

Certainty equivalent,risk premium and asset pricing

This paper attempts to determine the certainty equivalent of an uncertain future cash flow or value through the option pricing method, and builds models of certainty equivalent and certainty equivalent coefficient. Based on the model of certainty equivalent coefficient, this paper further derives models of risk premium and risk-adjusted discount rate. The latter is a new capital asset pricing model (CAPM) accounting for total risk rather than with only the systematic risk accounted for as in the current CAPM. The reliability in relevant financial analysis, valuation, decision making and risk management may be enhanced with these new models.     

Pricing and hedging in the freight futures market

In this article, we consider the pricing and hedging of single‐route dry bulk freight futures contracts traded on the International Maritime Exchange. Thus far, this relatively young market has received almost no academic attention. In contrast to many other commodity markets, freight services are non‐storable, making a simple cost‐of‐carry valuation impossible. We empirically compare the pricing and hedging accuracy of a variety of continuous‐time futures pricing models. Our results show that the inclusion of a second stochastic factor significantly improves the pricing and hedging accuracy. Overall, the results indicate that the Schwartz and Smith ( 2000 ) two‐factor model provides the best performance. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:440–464, 2011     

Multiple Ratings Model of Defaultable Term Structure

A new approach to modeling credit risk, to valuation of defaultable debt and to pricing of credit derivatives is developed. Our approach, based on the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) methodology, uses the available information about the credit spreads combined with the available information about the recovery rates to model the intensities of credit migrations between various credit ratings classes. This results in a conditionally Markovian model of credit risk. We then combine our model of credit risk with a model of interest rate risk in order to derive an arbitrage‐free model of defaultable bonds. As expected, the market price processes of interest rate risk and credit risk provide a natural connection between the actual and the martingale probabilities.     

Model risk adjusted hedge ratios

Most option pricing models assume all parameters except volatility are fixed; yet they almost invariably change on re‐calibration. This article explains how to capture the model risk that arises when parameters that are assumed constant have calibrated values that change over time and how to use this model risk to adjust the price hedge ratios of the model. Empirical results demonstrate an improvement in hedging performance after the model risk adjustment. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1021–1049, 2009     

ANALYTICAL COMPARISONS OF OPTION PRICES IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

This paper gives an ordering on option prices under various well-known martingale measures in an incomplete stochastic volatility model. Our central result is a comparison theorem that proves convex option prices are decreasing in the market price of volatility risk, the parameter governing the choice of pricing measure. The theorem is applied to order option prices under q -optimal pricing measures. In doing so, we correct orderings demonstrated numerically in Heath, Platen, and Schweizer ( Mathematical Finance , 11(4), 2001) in the special case of the Heston model.