社保基金投资风险防控研究

当前社保基金投资范围日渐扩大,投资监督管理制度进步缓慢,致使社保投资进一步发展遭遇困境,面临的投资风险扩大.本文以养老保险基金为例,对养老保险基金投资风险案例进行分析,以研究管理风险、代理委托风险与养老保险基金投资增值风险为切入点,探究如何在确保利益的基础上管控投资期间出现的各类危机.最终提出积极创建委托代理机制、强化...     

如何提高我国养老保险基金的投资效益

我国养老保险基金的投资收益率一直在3％左右徘徊，与发达国家的收益率相去甚远。应通过扩大投资渠道、优化投资结构、明确投资主体、提高基金统筹层次和加强基金投资监管等措施，来实现养老保险基金的保值增值。     

我国现行养老保险制度存在的问题及改革对策

目前我国养老保险制度存在的问题是:个人帐户"空壳化";养老保险基金缺口巨大;养老保险基金贬值严重.改革对策是:社会统筹与个人帐户分开管理;发展私人养老保险基金管理公司管理个人帐户;取消养老保险基金投资范围限制,对其开放资本市场;制定严格的监管体系管理私人养老保险基金公司.     

对养老保险基金安全运营的思考

在社会保障制度改革的过程中,养老保险基金的保值增值问题是关键所在。我国养老保险基金运营过程中存在投资渠道过窄、资金存在缺口、经营主体缺位、缺乏有效监管等问题。通过完善养老保险基金运营的相关立法,建立独立的、强有力的养老保险基金监管机构,建立养老保险基金运营管理机构的市场准入和退出机制等措施,可有效应对养老保险基金运营风险。     

养老保险基金与金融稳定的关联性思考

维护金融稳定是当今大部分国家货币管理当局的职责,当前世界资本市场上近三分之一的资金来自养老保险基金,养老保险基金正越来越成为影响一国金融稳定的重要因素。本文分析了养老保险基金参与资本市场的必然性,从资本市场、基金缺口、投资监管等角度分析了养老保险基金对金融稳定造成冲击的可能性,并提出了拓宽基金投资渠道、推进基金社会化运营、建立有效的监管机制等建议。     

跨境资金流动本外币协同监管框架探究

构建跨境资金流动本外币协同监管框架,实现本外币监管政策协同发力,以避免跨境资本流动风险集聚,保障我国金融安全。从人民币及外汇管理差异分析切入,通过比较分析、实证分析等方法,探究目前跨境人民币和外汇监管政策之间的不同,监管中存在的问题及不利影响,最后从宏观、中观、微观角度给出构建本外币协同监管框架的政策建议,具有较强的现实意义。     

基本养老保险基金审计问题研究

一、基本养老保险基金审计的困难(一)基本养老保险基金审计基础薄弱微观角度来看,养老保险基金的审计工作主要由地方审计局完成,但是很多审计组织很晚才对养老保险基金进行独立审计;宏观角度来看,养老保险制度在运作之中对系统性风险缺乏大局思考,立法与建制在对养老保险的审计上不够完善,特别是近年来社会新闻经常曝光各地养老保险收益性极差,甚至是亏损。(二)基本养老保险审计工作人员专业素质不强基本养老保险基金在审计中的复杂性,在于这是由国家统筹、人人必有的保险,因此审     

完善我国农村金融服务体系的若干理论思考

一、我国农村金融服务体系建设的理论背景农村金融服务体系,是一个复杂的综合体,它有若干构成要素,并可以分成不同的层次。从理论上讲,它包括宏观层次的农村金融监管体系、中观层次的农村金融组织机构体系以及微观层次的农村金融服务需求体系,其中,宏观层次的金融监管体系和中观层次的金融组织机构体系构成农村金融的供给体系,金融组织机构体系是农村金融服务体系的主     

欧债危机对我国金融监管的启示

在欧债危机的形成及处置过程中,暴露出欧盟和欧州央行存在缺乏对金融市场系统性风险的监管、金融监管明显落后于金融创新、对信用评级机构的作用认识不足、监管及救助缺乏制度性等问题.结合我国金融业实际情况,应从宏观系统、中观市场、微观机构三方面着手,提高监管意识、完善监管机制、改进监管手段,提高我国的金融监管水平.     

新形势下完善和加强我国银行监管的对策

从全球经济一体化的角度来看,银行监管可从三个层面来划分,即宏观监管、中观监管和微观监管.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.