Life Expectancy in the Future

Abstract

The public responsibility of life insurance actuaries has changed from supervisory compliance with detailed state laws to certifying adherence to more general regulatory objectives complemented by actuarial standards of practice.     

预期寿命对中国养老保险支出的影响效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

利用1995—2014年我国31个省份的省级面板数据实证检验了预期寿命延长对我国养老金支出的影响效应。结果发现：人口平均预期寿命对我国养老金支出水平具有显著的正向影响。实证结果显示：研究样本期间内人口平均预期寿命的增加导致了我国养老金支出水平增加了0.94个百分点,对养老金支出水平增加的贡献度高达76%,成为了我国养老金支出增加的主导因素。随着我国人口预期寿命延长模式逐渐进入到以老年人口死亡率下降为主导,这种人口增龄效应对养老金支出的影响还会进一步增强和深入,在未来养老保险制度改革优化过程中需对预期寿命这一因素加以重点关注。     

Minimum Death Rates and Maximum Life Expectancy: The Role of Concordant Ages

Only five populations have achieved maximum life expectancy (or best practice population) more than occasionally since 1900. The aim of this article is to understand how maximum life expectancy is achieved in the context of mortality transition. We explore this aim using the concepts of potential life expectancy, based on minimum rates at each age among all high longevity populations, and concordant ages. Concordant ages are defined as ages at which the minimum death rate occurs in the population with the maximum life expectancy. The results show the extent to which maximum life expectancy could increase through the realization of demonstrably achievable minimum rates. Concordant ages are concentrated at increasingly older ages over time, but they have produced more than half of the change in maximum life expectancy in almost all periods since 1900. This finding is attributed to their quantity and position whereby concordant ages are concentrated at the ages that have the greatest impact on mortality decline in a particular period. Based on mortality forecasts, we expect that concordant ages will continue to lead increases in female maximum life expectancy, but that they will play a weaker role in male maximum life expectancy.     

寿险产品评价体系研究

中国保险市场的发展,迫切需要建立保险评价体系.保险产品的评价体系是保险评价的核心,其主要目标是以保险产品相对透明为目的进行的.在所有的保险产品中,人身保险产品与社会大众关系最为密切,人身保险在保险业的保费收入中也占有决定性地位.所以,当务之急是首先建立人身保险产品的评价体系.寿险保单的保障程度、投资价值以及附带的服务水平是寿险产品的核心问题,应当成为寿险产品评价的主要内容.本文重点从寿险产品保障程度进行评价研究.     

人口预期寿命与经济增长关系的研究评述

随着人口经济学理论的发展和OLG模型的不断拓展,关于预期寿命与经济增长关系的理论研究与实证分析逐渐深入。由于研究视角、理论模型以及样本数据等方面的不同,学者们关于两者关系的观点存在较大差异。本文梳理了部分国外当前主要相关文献,认为目前关于预期寿命作用于经济增长的观点可以归纳为:人口预期寿命上升提高人力资本回报率和储蓄率,进而促进经济增长;人口预期寿命上升将导致人口增长,进而降低人均GDP增长;人口预期寿命与经济增长存在非线性关系,非线性特征取决于人口结构转型、初始预期寿命等因素。     

城镇企业养老保险个人账户给付期测算研究——基于预期寿命的视角

养老保险个人账户给付期的科学设计是养老保险个人账户制度持续、稳定运行的关键.本文从预期寿命的角度构建了城镇企业职工养老保险个人账户给付期的测算模型,并从分性别和分地区预期寿命角度对养老保险个人账户给付期进行了测算,测算表明我国法定养老保险个人账户给付期设计与预期寿命变化不协调,并导致个人账户超支月数越来越大.可通过适当延长养老保险个人账户给付期、推迟退休年龄提高我国养老保险个人账户制度的运行效率.     

Performance Evaluations and Efficient Sorting

Much of the production in firms takes place over time. This paper seeks to understand the value of interim performance information on long projects. In particular, the model explores the sorting effects of performance evaluations. Conducting an interim performance evaluation increases efficiency by providing the option to end projects with low early returns. The main result: It is efficient to allocate more resources towards the end of a project. This result holds under a variety of scenarios: when the worker has unknown ability, when the outside options vary with output, and even under an agency framework with a risk‐averse agent.     

美国金融监管体系改革评析

为了应对金融危机和完善监管体系,美同财政部于2008年3月提出了现代金融监管架构改革蓝图,改革蓝图是对美国现行监管体系存在问题的检讨和修正,所传达出的金融监管新理念,对完善我国金融监管体制、维护金融稳定具有启示意义.     

美国金融监管体系改革评析

为了应对金融危机和完善监管体系,美国财政部于2008年3月提出了现代金融监管架构改革蓝图,改革蓝图是对美国现行监管体系存在问题的检讨和修正,所传达出的金融监管新理念,对完善我国金融监管体制、维护金融稳定具有启示意义。     

对分税制财政体制运行效应的评价及建议

分税制财政体制作为一种新的制度安排，它在规范政府间财政分配关系、促进财政收入稳定增长、规范财政收入分配秩序、提高地方政府的征税努力程度、强化各地区对中央财政的依赖性方面发挥了积极作用。同时，分税制财政体制在运行中也暴露出了一些问题。本文提出了进一步完善分税制财政体制的若干建议。     

论合理期待理论在公司司法解散制度中的实践运用

我国新《公司法》第183条对公司司法解散有过明确规定。虽然这一规定对公司法体系的完善起着重要作用,但在实践运用中,在处理诸如预期改变或者因继承、受赠而获得股份的问题上,现有的法律仍将眼光放在投资时间这个相对较狭隘的概念上。对此问题,法律应更多地考虑公司经营管理情形的改变,从而保护小股东的合理期待权。     

创新型企业及其评估的逻辑视角

创新型企业是以创新求生存求发展的企业.创新型企业的主要特征是已经具有且在不断提高自身的综合创新素质;具有完善的创新体系;以持续创新为手段,不断提高企业经济效益,实现企业的可持续发展.创新型企业评估可以从"创新型企业创新综合素质评估"、"创新绩效评估"、"素质-绩效协调性评估"三个逻辑视角.来反映企业创新程度.     

Evaluating Competitive Strategies

In this paper we introduce a conception of learning which is a natural extension of economists' representations of learning and which is natural to develop using KBS technology. In the particular form of KBS we use, rule conditions and actions are well-formulated formulae of first-order predicate logic (FOPL). As a result, the simulation results obtained from these models are no less analytical than those of pure analytic models. Our results are further strengthened by an experimental design for simulations of competitive behaviour which eliminates implicit bias in the selection of possible behaviours. The system is applied to the Cournot duopoly model. We find that modest intelligence on the part of at least one duopolist systematically increases the profits of both.     

沿海欠发达地区产业结构高度化综合评价——以江苏省沿海地区为例

近年来,江苏省沿海地区工业化进程速度加快,正处于工业化中期阶段。但从产业结构上看,江苏沿海地区产业结构演变总体处于数量型调整阶段,产业素质提高明显滞后,三产劳动生产率相对较低。第二产业及第三产业的发展是决定江苏沿海地区总体产业结构高度的关键力量,其中第二产业是目前江苏沿海地区提升总体产业结构高度的主要力量。     

Timing and Duration of Exposure in Evaluations of Social Programs

Impact evaluations aim to measure the outcomes that can be attributedto a specific policy or intervention. While there have beenexcellent reviews of the different methods for estimating impact,insufficient attention has been paid to questions related totiming: How long after a program has begun should it be evaluated?For how long should treatment groups be exposed to a programbefore they benefit from it? Are there time patterns in a program'simpact? This paper examines the evaluation issues related totiming, and discusses the sources of variation in the durationof exposure within programs and their implications for impactestimates. It reviews the evidence from careful evaluationsof programs (with a focus on developing countries) on the waysthat duration affects impacts.      

Evaluating absolute return managers

One traditional measure of investment performance, the information ratio (IR), is defined as the active return (alpha) divided by the tracking error (the standard deviation of the active return). Calculating an IR is straightforward when the benchmark for performance is a buy-and-hold standard like the S&P 500. For absolute return managers, however, the typical benchmark is zero, meaning that any excess return is classified as alpha and deemed to represent the return from active management or skill. In this paper, we argue that this standard approach confuses beta returns and alpha returns. The former can be earned by following generic strategies that are easily implemented and often replicated by ETFs, while the later are associated with more original or complex strategies that more genuinely reflect unique skills or expertise. We propose a new performance metric that strips out beta returns associated with investment-style factors. This approach leads to a new statistic, the alpha ratio, which can dramatically impact the relative performance rankings of managers and provide a clearer signal of manager skill.