股票收益率与通胀关系的实证研究

本文基于费雪理论,使用1991-2010年的月度数据对中国股市的收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行实证分析,并进一步检验各行业股票对通胀风险的防御效果。研究结果表明,总体上股票收益率与通胀率显著负相关,即股票不是持续高通胀时期的有效保值工具,但是在材料、医药和消费等行业仍具有较好的通胀防御效果。     

The Great Inflation Was Not Asymmetric: International Evidence

The rise and fall of inflation during the Great Inflation were events of approximately equal duration in developed economies. Relying on data-driven methods, this paper shows the American experience, in which inflation fell more quickly than it rose, was anomalous. This suggests that theories explaining the asymmetry in the American data may not be so applicable to a broader sample of countries.     

实际股票收益率与通货膨胀率关系的实证研究

股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系至今仍无定论.采用1991年1月到2011年8月的月度数据,运用VAR模型对我国的股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行实证分析,结果发现不论是预期的通货膨胀还是非预期的通货膨胀与股票实际收益率都是负相关关系.表明费雪效应在我国不成立,股票并不是对冲通货膨胀风险的理想工具.     

Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates

Characteristics of inflation play a key role in policy formulation and market analysis. Several studies have analyzed inflation persistence and reached diverging conclusions. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence using fractionally integrated processes and find that there has been a clear decline in inflation persistence in the United States over the past two decades. We also show that the presence of fractional integration in inflation successfully explains previous diverging results. Lastly, we provide some international comparisons to examine the extent to which there has been a commensurate decline in inflation persistence in the other G7 economies.     

全球产出缺口与中国的通胀变动:基于扩展的菲利普斯曲线研究

本文在考察全球产出缺口与国内通胀变动关系的基础上,应用扩展的菲利普斯曲线模型,对影响我国通胀变动的国内外因素进行了经验研究,验证"全球产出缺口假说"在中国的适用性。计量结果表明,国内产出缺口、通货预期、原油价格和食品价格都是影响国内通胀变动的主要因素,贸易加权、进口加权、产出加权的全球产出缺口对国内通胀变动具有正向影响,但影响程度还没有国内产出缺口高。对待全球化背景下中国的通胀变动,不仅要分析国内宏观经济均衡与波动周期,更要关注国际市场的外部冲击。     

通货膨胀目标制的国际实践及启示

本文对通货膨胀目标制的实施情况及实施条件进行分析,得出我国实行通货膨胀目标制的条件还不成熟。但是在制定货币政策时,我国可以借鉴通货膨胀目标制的单一货币政策目标,减少货币政策对经济周期的扰动,进而实现经济的稳定增长。     

Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis

We develop a method of measuring ex-ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds. Employing this method and newly available data, we directly test the Fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations. We find a negative correlation between ex-ante real interest rates and expected inflation. This contradicts the Fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of Mundell and Tobin, Darby and Feldstein, and Stulz. We also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty.     

我国当前通货膨胀的国际因素研究

本文在美元持续贬值和全球性通货膨胀的背景下,分析了我国此轮通货膨胀的原因。通过脉冲响应分析、方差分解及协整检验,得出了国际商品价格的持续上涨和我国外汇储备的快速增加都对我国的消费者价格水平带来正的和持久的冲击的结论。     

通胀治理效率及其决定因素的实证研究——基于发展中国家的跨国分析

运用Malmquist指数和面板协整方法,测度了39个发展中国家在1995~2010年通胀治理效率,并分析影响通胀治理效率的宏观决定因素及渠道。实证结果发现,大部分发展中国家的通胀治理效率并没有明显改善。在通胀治理效率的决定因素中,货币与财政政策的自主性、汇率弹性、金融自由度等因素既影响政府决策效率,又关乎政策传导效率,从而显著影响发展中国家的通胀治理效率;金融发展因素则主要通过提升政策传导效率影响通胀治理效率;而经济开放对各效率指标的影响都不显著。与其他发展中国家相比,中国注重金融市场的培育并配套相应的金融监管从而享有较高的通胀治理政策传导效率。进一步提升中国通胀治理效率应在增强货币政策和财政政策自主性的同时,提高汇率弹性。     

电子货币对通货膨胀影响的实证研究

以电子货币为视角,将其引入通货膨胀形成机制的理论分析框架。研究发现,电子货币对通货膨胀的影响主要体现在放大效应和加速效应两个方面,从而加大了中央银行调控货币政策的难度。同时选取我国1990～2009年的相关样本数据,通过构建计量经济模型,对放大效应以及加速效应与通货膨胀的相关性进行了统计检验。实证结果表明,电子货币的通货膨胀效应显著存在,并提出了相关的对策建议。     

The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data

We estimate the contribution of international common factors to the dynamics of price inflation rates of a cross-section of 948 CPI products in four OECD countries: United States, Germany, France, and United Kingdom. We find two main results. First, on average, and at least in the sample 1991–2004, one international common factor explains between 15% and 30% of the variance of consumer prices (depending on the transformation applied to the data). Given the high level of disaggregation of our panel, this estimate is best viewed as a lower bound for the contribution of international factors to inflation dynamics. Second, we find a strongly positive and statistically significant relationship between exposure of consumer inflation to international shocks and trade openness at the sectoral level. The latter result holds regardless of whether the original data are expressed in local as opposed to common currency.     

进出口贸易与通货膨胀的国际传导——基于中国数据的实证检验

本文回顾了进出口对我国国内物价波动的影响机制,运用Granger因果检验方法对进出口与国内物价波动的关系进行了验证。结果发现:进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格,最终表现为国内工业品出厂价格指数变化。但是由于我国原材料价格与工业品出厂价格以及居民消费价格指数之间的传导并不通畅,进口价格的影响被大大削弱。进出口对国内"总供给—总需求"的影响最显著,是影响物价波动的重要因素之一,需要密切关注。贸易收支顺差是我国外汇储备积累的重要来源,也是国内货币供应量增加的原因之一,但是在货币供应量变动与居民消费者物价指数变化不一致的情况下,贸易收支对通货膨胀的影响也较有限。     

我国通货膨胀的形成机制——基于全球化逻辑框架的一个实证

本文立足全球化视角,构建了一个通胀形成机制的逻辑分析框架,在此框架下对产出缺口、流动性等通胀形成要素进行了分析,并在此基础上,扩展菲利普斯曲线,构建ADL模型进行实证研究。结果表明,产出仍是重要因素,不能因产能过剩而忽视潜在的通胀压力;货币并不必然造成通胀,但如果经济持续增长,货币充分进入实体领域则将化为现实通胀;资产价格对物价的影响显著并蕴含着巨大风险,货币政策应该关注资产价格;通货膨胀预期不断强化,并使得通胀具有自我形成机制,合理引导通胀预期非常必要。     

Inflation and the Transition to a Market Economy: An Overview

European socialist economies were commonly characterized bylow or negligible open inflation, full employment, and stablerelative prices and real incomes. Associated features were significantrepressed or hidden inflation and disequilibria in goods markets.More recently, as economic and political reform has advanced,attention has shifted to translating repressed into open inflation.Where such reforms have proceeded against a background of amonetary overhang, the implications of that overhang for demand-sidepolicies have figured prominently. In all instances, however,the key underlying issue has been the transmission mechanismfor inflation once the initial impulse associated with priceliberalization has been imparted.     

人民币汇率波动与通货膨胀率之间关系的实证分析

本文试图回答以下问题:人民币升值可以替代通货膨胀吗?如果可以,定量的替代关系如何?在综合使用了多种分析方法后,我们发现人民币升值在某种程度上确实可以抑制国内价格水平的上涨,但其效果决定了升值不能成为抑制通胀的主要工具。另外,通过模型我们还揭示出劳动生产率的提高对于国内物价的上涨具有决定性意义。     

关于财政赤字政策和国债问题的国际考察及几点认识

1998年,为应对于亚洲金融危机给我国带来的外贸出口下降、总供求失衡的影响,国务院决定实施积极的财政政策,扩大国债发行,用于基础设施建设.1999年继续运用这一政策刺激内需.财政赤字和债务规模的扩大,引起了社会的普遍关注和议论.财政赤字政策的利弊、衡量财政赤字和政府债务规模大小的指标,财政赤字与债务累积的后果等问题成为当前的热门话题.