Will They Stay or Will They Go? Simulating the Dynamics of Single‐Holder Farms in a Dualistic Farm Structure in Slovakia

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single‐holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent‐based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm‐internal and ‐external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short‐ to medium‐term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing‐in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium‐ to long‐term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development. Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié la relation entre l'entrée en agriculture de fermes à propriétaire unique et leur sortie dans un contexte d'agriculture dualiste dans la région de Nitra, en Slovaquie. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les raisons économiques et non économiques qui motivent la sortie. Nous avons étudié l'impact liéà la possibilité de relève et à la répartition par âge des agriculteurs. Pour évaluer le changement structurel en agriculture, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation multi‐agent qui réunit les facteurs internes et externes et crée un ensemble de réactions d'adaptation endogènes. Nous avons montré que l'introduction progressive des paiements directs accordés dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune en Slovaquie a des répercussions considérables sur son développement structurel. À court et à moyen termes, l'agriculture dualiste, combinée à la structure de l'âge des exploitations agricoles, demeure une réaction à la politique en place. La mise en place progressive des paiements persuade les exploitations à propriétaire unique de demeurer dans le secteur et encourage les successeurs potentiels à y entrer. À plus long terme, la structure agricole qui était hétérogène au départ devient de plus en plus homogène et compte de plus grandes fermes à propriétaire unique. À court et à moyen termes, la prévalence de petites fermes à propriétaire unique ne va pas nécessairement de soi. Cette situation pourrait amener les décideurs à réexaminer le rôle des exploitations individuelles dans le développement rural.     

Does Choice Context Affect the Results from Incentive‐Compatible Experiments? The Case of Non‐GM and Country‐of‐Origin Premia in Canola Oil

We seek to design and implement a WTP elicitation instrument closely resembling an actual grocery shopping experience. An incentive-compatible choice experiment is used to elicit values for a non-GM attribute and a country-of-origin attribute of Canola oil. The choice context is varied to assess whether revealed-preference choice experiments are affected by choice variety. A median premium for non-GM Canola oil is found to approximate C$0.45 or C$0.62/liter according to the choice variety context; different country-of-origin effects are also found as choice context varies. Hypotheses as to why these significant effects of choice contexts occur are suggested.
Nous cherchons à concevoir et à mettre en application un instrument de révélation de la VDP qui ressemble étroitement aux choix que fait un consommateur lorsqu'il effectue son marché. Nous avons utilisé une méthode expérimentale compatible avec les incitations des participants afin de découvrir la valeur accordée à deux caractéristiques de l'huile de canola: non génétiquement modifiée et étiquetée selon le pays d'origine. La liste des choix est variée afin d'évaluer si les préférences révélées sont influencées par la gamme de choix. La prime médiane de l'huile de canola non génétiquement modifiée est d'environ 0,45 $CAN ou 0,62 $CAN le litre selon les choix proposés. Différents pays d'origine figurent aussi dans cette liste de choix. Nous avons formulé des hypothèses quant aux raisons pour lesquelles la gamme de choix a des effets importants.     

Evaluation of Agri‐Environmental Programs: Can We Determine If We Grew Forward in an Environmentally Friendly Way?

The environmental elements of the quinquennial agricultural policy frameworks are probably the largest agri‐environmental programs in Canada and have been running for about 15 years. Formal evaluation of their effectiveness has either not been done, or is not available for researchers and policy analysts to compare with other agri‐environmental policy efforts. This address introduces this problem and attempts to examine evaluative approaches using Alberta's Growing Forward 1 and 2 environmental stewardship programs. While this attempt has uncovered significant data issues, there is evidence that program managers targeted funds to areas where water quality risks are of concern. The review also questions the requirement that producers eligible for funding must have an Environmental Farm Plan. After 15 years of having this requirement, I argue that it's time for Alberta's environmental stewardship program to relax this. Les éléments environnementaux des cadres politiques agricoles quinquennaux représentent probablement les plus vastes programmes agroenvironnementaux au Canada et opèrent depuis environ quinze ans. L'évaluation formelle de leur efficacité n'a soit pas été entreprise, ou n'est pas disponible pour les chercheurs et analystes politiques afin qu'ils les comparent à d'autres efforts en matière de politique agroenvironnementale. Cet énoncé présente ce problème et tente d'examiner les approches évaluatives utilisées par les programmes albertains de gérance environnementale Cultivons l'avenir 1 et 2. S'il est vrai que cette tentative a révélé de considérables problèmes de données, des preuves démontrent que les gestionnaires de programmes dirigeaient les fonds vers les régions où la qualité de l'eau est en jeu. L'évaluation s'interroge aussi au sujet de l'exigence selon laquelle les producteurs admissibles au financement doivent présenter un plan agroenvironnemental. Ayant été requise pendant quinze ans, je propose que le programme de gérance environnementale de l'Alberta assouplisse cette exigence.     

The expansion of intensive marine aquaculture in Turkey: The next‐to‐last commodity frontier?

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food‐producing sectors, and its share in global seafood production is rising significantly compared with capture fisheries. This transforms seafood production practices while allowing capital to expand to new marine commodity frontiers. Building on the conceptualization of aquaculture as a new frontier for capture fisheries, the article aims to uncover how commodity frontiers expand within the intensive marine aquaculture sector and shape the transformation of seafood production by focusing on its recent growth in Turkey. It analyses this transformation based on 22 in‐depth interviews with key social actors in Turkey, as well as a review of sector and state reports and the relevant legislations of Turkey and the European Union, and argues that the three‐pronged horizontal, vertical, and taxonomic expansion already observed in industrial capture fisheries has similarly taken place in intensive marine aquaculture through the commodity widening, deepening, and marketing strategies employed by aquaculture firms.     

Can women's self‐help groups improve access to information,decision‐making,and agricultural practices? The Indian case

Effective agricultural extension is key to improving productivity, increasing farmers’ access to information, and promoting more diverse sets of crops and improved methods of cultivation. In India, however, the coverage of agricultural extension workers and the relevance of extension advice is poor. We investigate whether a women's self‐help group (SHG) platform could be an effective way of improving access to information, women's empowerment in agriculture, agricultural practices, and production diversity. We use cross‐sectional data on close to 1,000 women from five states in India and employ nearest‐neighbor matching models to match SHG and non‐SHG women along a range of observed characteristics. We find that participation in an SHG increases women's access to information and their participation in some agricultural decisions, but has limited impact on agricultural practices or outcomes, possibly due to financial constraints, social norms, and women's domestic responsibilities. SHGs need to go beyond provision of information to changing the dynamics around women's participation in agriculture to effectively translate knowledge into practice.     

Introduction to the Special Feature: Will the BRIC Decade Continue? The Role of Rural Areas and Agriculture

This article provides an introduction to the special feature on agriculture‐related issues in the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contained in this issue of Journal of Agricultural Economics. The special feature is motivated by the increased interest which these countries have received since the turn of the millennium and by the significance of agriculture in their development. It considers economic and social development in BRICs, their integration in world agricultural trade as well as environmental concerns. This article presents key figures on economic, social and agricultural features in BRICs and compares them across countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics likely to be crucial for further development across BRICs.     

Estimating Price Elasticities of Food Trade Functions: How Relevant is the CES‐based Gravity Approach?

The main objective of this article is to examine econometric estimates of price elasticities of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences. We test all these assumptions using intra‐European trade in cheese. In general, the assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our dataset. The bias induced in the estimated price elasticities is ambiguous.     

Measuring the risk attitude of decision‐makers: are there differences between groups of methods and persons?

Many studies quantifying individual risk preferences of test persons show that results of different measuring methods may vary. Additional reservations about the reliability of the results regarding the risk attitude measurement arise from the fact that most studies are based on convenience groups, such as students or businessmen in developing countries. With this in mind, we systematically compare different measuring methods to answer the question how the choice of method affects the results. Moreover, we compare the risk preferences of German farmers with those of students and Kazakhstani farmers to investigate whether farmers’ risk preferences can be approximated through those of convenience groups. The methods applied comprise an incentive‐compatible Holt‐and‐Laury‐lottery as well as two psychometric methods. Results show that students respond consistently across all three elicitation methods whereas German and Kazakhstani farmers are more inconsistent. Significant differences exist in the responses of German students and German farmers. The comparison of risk preferences between German and Kazakhstani farmers, however, reveals significant similarities with respect to the psychometric methods.     

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and the World: How Big are the Impacts Really?

A computable general equilibrium model was used to assess the impacts of global climate change on Canadian Agriculture. The assumption of ceteris paribus was relaxed. The results indicated that many supply and demand factors have potentially larger impacts on the Canadian and world economies over the next 5 decades than climate change. The distribution of regional impacts varied substantially. Such information is valuable for the agricultural sector and policymakers trying to allocate limited resources .     

The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data‐ and propensity score‐based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource‐poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro‐dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.     

How well do conservation auctions perform in achieving landscape‐level outcomes? A comparison of auction formats and bid selection criteria

This paper studies the performance of auction design features regarding pricing mechanisms and bid selection criteria for securing wildlife zones across different holdings. We compare two pricing mechanisms: a discriminatory‐price auction and a uniform‐price ascending auction, and four bid selection criteria on the basis of: total bid, bid‐per‐value ratio, bid‐per‐area ratio and a mixed criterion where bids are formed on the basis of cost but they are selected based on the bid‐per‐value ratio. We develop a best‐response group‐bidding model for a discriminatory‐price auction where bidders form optimal group bids for individual wildlife zones. In the uniform‐price ascending auction, individual landholders respond to prices, which are successively raised by the auctioneer and whenever all the landholders from a single zone agree to participate (i.e. the first zone is formed), the auction stops. Based on numerical simulations using a bio‐economic model of malleefowl conservation, we observe that the discriminatory‐price auction is more cost‐effective than the uniform‐price ascending auction. However, the budgetary cost‐effectiveness of a discriminatory‐price auction is sensitive to bidder uncertainty about the number of competing bidder groups and the highest cost of establishing a wildlife zone among these groups. In terms of bid selection, the mixed bid selection criterion performs best. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.     

Protester or non‐protester: a binary state? On the use (and non‐use) of latent class models to analyse protesting in economic valuation*

In the analysis of stated preferences studies, it is often assumed that protesting is a discretely measured item only occurring among those who are not willing to pay. However, various studies have recently shown that protest beliefs are as well held by respondents who state a positive willingness to pay (WTP). Using latent class (LC) models, we investigate the extent of heterogeneity with respect to protest beliefs among all respondents of two contingent valuation studies. The advantage of LC models is that classes of individuals are endogenously identified and no selection bias is introduced by ad hoc definitions of protesters. Further we investigate whether it is possible to identify a class of non‐protesters. Finding a group of pure non‐protesters could indicate how strongly stated WTP in the whole sample is affected by protest beliefs. For both samples, we find a class with strong protest beliefs but no pure non‐protest class. Overall, our results suggest that LC models might not be the first choice to determine unbiased WTP measures, but they provide valuable insights into the degree of protesting expressed by different groups and corresponding determinants of group membership.     

A Case Study of Technological Switching and Technological Lock‐In in the French Fisheries Sector: Why is Sustainable Change so Difficult?

Many sectors such as the fishery show classic examples of technological lock‐in and path dependence, even though some economists might predict smooth switching toward technologies that are more cost effective and sustainable. We use ideas from the evolutionary economics and public choice literatures to explain why trajectories of technological change, especially in fisheries, may not be smooth at all, but rather punctuated. The interest of technological change and switching behavior for fisheries economists and managers stems from the fact that control of effective effort, often necessary for sustainable management of the resource, remains a central management problem for that sector worldwide, even in developed countries. However, various policies put in place by governments to support the fishing sector, and often put in place to “correct” for certain market failures, may inadvertently produce other “nonmarket” failures, which result in technological lock‐ins which are unsustainable. For example, the trawling technique was widely promoted in France in the 1970s and 1980s. Path dependency developed in such a way that the preferred choice of new entrants into the fishery was this technology. Technological lock‐in occurred on the trawling technique as the trawling sector also became more politically active, making it ultimately the most widely used technique in the French fisheries sector in the Atlantic. Switching away from this technology has not taken place even with poorer economic performance of that technology. This paper also discusses the influence of state subsidies on the adoption of trawling. Even if trawling was a major innovation in fisheries in the past, its potential for technological adaptations or minor innovations is limited now. These limitations are more obvious during periods of increasing energy prices, especially in the absence of state aid. However, due to collective choice phenomena, switches to more sustainable technologies will occur more slowly. Plusieurs secteurs, tel que celui des pêcheries, offrent des exemples de verrouillage technologique et de dépendances au sentier, alors même que les économistes s’attendent à un changement régulier vers une technologie plus efficace en termes de coûts et plus soutenable. Nous nous appuyons sur la littérature évolutionniste et des choix publics afin d’expliquer pourquoi les trajectoires du changement technologique, en particulier dans les pêcheries, peuvent ne pas être régulières, mais au contraire discontinues. L’intérêt des économistes et des gestionnaires pour le changement technologique et le comportement face au retour des techniques est lié au contrôle de l’effort réel, souvent nécessaire pour une gestion durable de la ressource. Le contrôle de l’effort reste le problème essentiel de la gestion des pêches à l’échelle mondiale, y compris dans les pays développés. Toutefois, de nombreuses mesures publiques mises en place par les gouvernements pour soutenir le secteur des pêcheries, afin de «contrecarrer» certaines défaillances du marché, peuvent déboucher involontairement sur d’autres défaillances «non marchandes», se traduisant par des verrouillages technologiques non‐soutenables. Par exemple, la technique du chalutage fut largement diffusé en France dans les années soixante‐dix et quatre‐vingt. Un sentier de dépendance s’est développé tel que les nouveaux entrants dans la pêcherie optaient pour cette technologie. Un verrouillage technologique s’est produit sur la technique du chalutage rendant ce secteur politiquement important, et finalement la technique la plus répandue parmi les pêcheries françaises de l’Atlantique. Un changement de technologie n’a donc pu survenir, même en présence de faibles performances économiques. L’article traite de l’influence des subventions étatiques liées à l’adoption du chalutage. Même si cette technologie fut une innovation majeure dans les pêcheries par le passé, les adaptations techniques potentielles ou les innovations mineures sont désormais limitées. Ces limites apparaissent clairement dans les périodes de coûts énergétiques croissants, notamment en l’absence d’aides étatiques. Toutefois, en raison du phénomène de comportements collectifs, les changements vers des technologies plus soutenables se déroulent avec lenteur.