The Changing Landscape of Accrual Accounting

A fundamental property of accrual accounting is to smooth temporary timing fluctuations in operating cash flows, indicating an inherent negative correlation between accruals and cash flows. We show that the overall correlation between accruals and cash flows has dramatically declined in magnitude over the past half century and has largely disappeared in more recent years. The adjusted R ² from regressing (changes in) accruals on (changes in) cash flows drops from about 70% (90%) in the 1960s to near zero (under 20%) in more recent years. In exploring potential reasons for the observed attenuation, we find that increases in non‐timing‐related accrual recognition, as proxied by one‐time and nonoperating items and the frequency of loss firm‐years, explain the majority of the overall decline. On the other hand, temporal changes in the matching between revenues and expenses, and the growth of intangible‐intensive industries play only a limited role in explaining the observed attenuation. Finally, the relative decline of the timing role of accruals does not appear to be associated with an increase in the asymmetrically timely loss recognition role.     

The effect of board composition on the informativeness and quality of annual earnings: Empirical evidence from Greece

This study examines how the informational quality of annual accounting earnings, varies according to the size and composition of the board of directors of publicly listed firms within the Greek capital market. Data analysis over a period of five years (2000-2004) revealed that the informativeness of annual accounting earnings is positively related to the fraction of outside directors serving on the board, but it is not related to board size. Additionally, firms with a higher proportion of outside board members proved to be more conservative when reporting bad news but on the contrary they do not display greater timeliness on the recognition of good news. Finally, firms with a higher proportion of outside directors report earnings of higher quality compared to firms with a low proportion of outside directors. Our results are robust to several sensitivity tests controlling for endogeneity, firm's fixed effects and alternative models for the estimation of discretionary accruals.     

Unsophisticated Arbitrageurs and Market Efficiency: Overreacting to a History of Underreaction?

Prior research has documented that arbitrage activity significantly reduces or eliminates stock market anomalies. However, if anomalies arise due to unsophisticated investors’ behavioral biases, then these same biases can also apply to unsophisticated arbitrageurs and thereby disrupt the arbitrage process. Consistent with a disruption in the arbitrage process for the post‐earnings announcement drift anomaly, I document that the historically positive autocorrelation in firms’ earnings announcement news has become significantly negative for firms with active exchange‐traded options. For these easy‐to‐arbitrage firms, the firms in the highest decile of prior earnings announcement abnormal return (prior earnings surprise), on average, underperform the firms in the lowest decile by 1.59% (1.43%) at their next earnings announcement. Additional analyses are consistent with investors learning about the post‐earnings announcement drift anomaly and overcompensating. This study suggests that unsophisticated attempts to profit from a well‐known anomaly can significantly reverse a previously documented stock return pattern.     

Asymmetrical return on equity mean reversion and catering

Using a momentum threshold autoregression model, we find evidence showing that there is an asymmetrical mean reversion behavior in return on equity (ROE). Results show that the speed of adjustment of ROE towards the long-term mean is slower in the ROE increasing regimes than in the ROE decreasing regimes. Additional results indicate that investor earnings optimism is significantly related to change in abnormal ROE. These results are consistent with predictions from catering theory.     

How far can we trust earnings numbers? What research tells us about earnings management

The article reviews the recent academic research literature on earnings management (EM) with a view to identifying research themes and results of interest to users and preparers of financial statements, accounting standard setters, and others with responsibility for ensuring that companies provide financial information to shareholders that can be relied upon. Hopefully students of accounting with an interest in exploring the EM literature will find that the article provides a useful framework. The literature on this topic is vast, and it is not possible to cover every article in detail. I provide an impressionistic survey that highlights examples of specific research themes and methods that regularly appear in the literature. Most of the examples are chosen from the literature published since 2000, although I do also highlight a few methodological contributions that appeared earlier. It is inevitable that the selection of articles reflects to some extent my personal interests and biases (intentional or otherwise). Thus, I wish to acknowledge that I owe a very substantial intellectual debt to the insights and contributions of the many uncited authors of a literature that spans over 40 years in over 20 accounting and finance journals.     

Information Content of Internal Control Weaknesses: The Evidence from Japan

This paper investigates how capital markets in a code-law country, Japan, react to the disclosure of internal control weaknesses (ICW). The Japanese government attempted to implement a more concise, efficient, and, thus, less strict internal control reporting system than Section 404 of the US-SOX. In fact, for the first two years, the disclosure rate of ICW has been much lower in Japan than in the U.S. While market reactions to the disclosure of ICW are not significantly different from zero in our event study analysis, they become significantly negative after controlling for other information released around the disclosure date, audit quality, and other firm attributes. Our results are consistent with the notion that the disclosure of ICW is informative to the market because it is less frequent and exceptional in Japan.     

Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings

We explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully, with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings. We generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings‐returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated. This parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results: reported losses are less persistent than reported gains, decision making diminishes the S‐shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by Basu [1997]. Furthermore, the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single‐peaked. Instead, it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by Burgstahler and Dichev [1997]. However, within our model, none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise, bias, or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior. They are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based.     

CFO Narcissism and Financial Reporting Quality

We investigate the effect of CFO narcissism, as measured by signature size, on financial reporting quality. Experimentally, we validate that narcissism predicts misreporting behavior, and that signature size predicts misreporting through its association with narcissism. Empirically, we examine notarized CFO signatures and find CFO narcissism is associated with more earnings management, less timely loss recognition, weaker internal control quality, and a higher probability of restatements. The results are consistent for within‐firm comparisons focusing on CFO changes and are robust to controlling for CFO overconfidence and CEO narcissism. The results highlight the importance of CFO characteristics in the domain of financial reporting decisions.     

Imperfect Accounting and Reporting Bias

Errors and bias are both inherent features of accounting. In theory, while errors discourage bias by lowering the value relevance of accounting, they can also facilitate bias by providing camouflage. Consistent with theory, we find a hump‐shaped relation between a firm's propensity to engage in intentional misstatement and the prevalence of unintentional misstatements in the firm's industry for the whole economy and a majority of the industries. The result is robust to using firms’ number of items in financial statements and exposure to complex accounting rules as alternative proxies for errors and to using the restatement amount in net income to quantify the magnitude of bias and errors. To directly test for the two effects of errors, we show that when errors are more prevalent, the market reacts less to firms’ earnings surprises and bias is more difficult to detect. Our results highlight the imperfectness of accounting, advance understanding of firms’ reporting incentives, and shed light on accounting standard setting.