农资涨价农民种粮有难处

2005年1～2月甘肃市场农资价格上涨9.1%,依据元月份主要农资价格资料测算,甘肃小麦、玉米每亩成本将增加5～10元,成本上涨3～5个百分点.农资涨价,直接影响粮食比较收益,而粮价大幅上涨的可能性不大,粮食比较收益将会下降,农民种粮预期收入减少,影响种粮积极性,进而影响农民对粮食生产的投入.     

“粮食海啸”警示我国粮食安全

此次世界"粮食海啸"起始于2006年9月,到2007年国际粮价上涨的趋势愈发明显."2007年3月至2008年3月,全球谷物平均价格上涨近30%,其中,稻米上涨74%,大豆上涨87%,小麦则上涨130%."粮食危机的四处蔓延不仅造成全球粮价的狂飙.     

全球粮价上涨：美国阴谋

在2007年夏季美国次贷危机爆发之后，全球粮食危机接踵而至。2007年，全球谷物价格大幅上涨，其中小麦上涨了112％、玉米上涨了47％、大豆上涨了75％。而从2008年1月到4月中旬，大米价格飙升了141％。据统计，全球主要粮食价格自2005年以来已经上涨了80％。截至今年3月，     

中国粮价是怎样被稳定的？

今年1月开始，国际市场小麦、玉米、大豆、大米价格发生剧烈上涨，小麦价格几乎翻了一倍。根据联合国世界粮食计划署的统计，国际粮价一季度平均上升16．5％，令全球1亿人陷入饥荒。 高涨的粮价足够引发恐慌，一些国家为保留更多大米供应国内市场，以缓和大米价格上涨压力，开始采取限制粮食出口措施。     

试看天下粮仓

正值收获季节,有关粮食问题的消息揪住世界目光:俄罗斯粮食禁运引发国际市场粮价上涨、粮食危机再现?全球粮食安全隐患凸显、俄粮食出口禁令生效,全球小麦价格已推高一倍、中国夏粮总产2462亿斤,同比下降0.3%,七年来首次减产……中国有句老话:手中有粮,心里不慌。纵观历史,历次粮食危机罪魁祸首大都是气候异常导致的各种自然灾害。持续整个夏天的旱灾,致使俄罗斯粮食减产三分之一。俄罗斯是世界上第三大小麦种植国、第四大小麦出口国,在普京总理签署出口禁令的     

稀缺性显现 全球粮价上涨将是大概率事件

近年来，全球粮食价格呈现大幅上涨趋势，主要粮食作物的市场价格如今已经接近或创下历史高位。全球粮价飙升是备方面因素共同作用的结果，而随着人口规模扩大、粮食需求激增以及市场投机行为等人为因素的影响，粮食稀缺性逐渐显现。鉴于当前全球粮食供需结构趋向紧张，因此预计未来全球粮食价格上涨仍将是大慨率事件。     

世界将迈入高粮价门槛

"全球玉米储备只够维持8周,小麦储备只够维持12周";"世界粮食供应正以从未预见过的、史无前例的速度减少";"粮价已涨到历史最高水平";"全球饥饿的风暴正席卷而来"……这是来自联合国粮农组织和联合国粮食计划署高官的警告,也是迄今为止,来自联合国的最严厉警告。     

天下事

国际粮价正在飙升至危险水平据《财经早报》报道,世界银行行长佐利克警告说:"国际粮价正在飙升至危险水平,并威胁到全球数千万人生计。"这让粮食安全问题近期再度成为全球关注焦点。据世行最新统计,从2010年10月到2011年1月,国际粮价大幅上涨15%,与一年前相比飙升29%,已逼近2008年"粮食危机"时创下的历史最高水平。从全球层面看,国际社会需要加强协调,力促发达国家采取负责任的货币政策,加强对国际大宗商品市场的监管,并综合考虑发展生物燃料的社会影响;对广大发展中国家而言,化解"粮食危机"的根本出路仍在于"自力更生",必须重视农业发展,加大农业投入,提高农业生产力,增强农业抗灾能力,最终扩大农业生产,增加粮食供给。(来源:中国广播网)     

今年物价涨幅将高于去年

2007年粮食价格将上涨6％左右 2006年我国粮食价格基本保持平稳走势，但是，10月份以来，北京、广东、山东等地相继出现了部分粮食和食用油价格上涨。11月份在全国粮、油价格普遍上涨的推动下，居民消费价格上涨1．9％，为全年最高水平。11月份食品价格上涨3．7％，拉动CPI上涨1．22个百分点，其中粮食价格上涨4．7％，油类价格上涨6．2％。食用油价格上涨主要是受国际期货市场转基因大豆价格上涨的影响。而面粉等粮食价格上涨，一是由于今年全球小麦主产国由于严重干旱等原因，大幅减产约5％-7％，小麦限制出口，国际市场小麦价格走高势必导致国内小麦价格上涨：二是受国内保护农民利益政策的影响，今年小麦的收购价高于市场预期，再加上许多农民惜售，导致稻谷收购紧张，致使面粉加工企业货源不足，推动了小麦价格的上涨。而玉米价格上涨，主要是由于国际原油价格持续上涨，玉米的提取物被用作为燃料替代品具有广阔的前景，导致玉米价格一路走高。     

下半年天津农村市场剖析(系列八)

进入8月份，天津农村粮食收购价格不断上扬，涨价幅度为今年以来的最高值，8月份天津农村粮食平均收购价格达到每公斤1．15元，与去年同期比较上涨了47．4％，比今年上半年粮价也提高了25％，是今年以来涨价幅度最高的月份，从不同品种看，稻谷，小麦，玉米，大豆收购价格均有较大幅度上扬，与去年同期相比分别上涨了78．9％，51．3％，47．3％和13．9％，比今年上半年平均价格分别提高了27．8％，14．6％，18．3％和9．2％。可见，稻谷涨价幅度最高，掀起了不小的波澜，成为粮食涨价中最引人注意的品种。粮价上涨的主要原因是今年6月10日粮食购销价格改革的推动，以及税制,外贸，汇率等改革的连锁反映，也有物价监管不力，变相涨价，不法商贩哄抬物价对农村粮价的刺激影响。     

Institutional Adjustment and Transaction Costs: Product and Inputs Markets in the Tanzanian Coffee System

Commodity market liberalization can improve incentives for production of export crops by reducing the total costs of transforming products through space, form and time, or by reducing the costs of arranging and completing transactions. While liberalization often leads to reduced costs in output exchange, it can remove opportunities for linked input–output transactions that sometimes lowered the costs of providing finance in state-controlled markets. Assessments of liberalization that focus on output exchange alone obscure the impact of rising transaction costs in finance. This study of liberalization in the Tanzanian coffee market documents declining costs in output marketing, rising transaction costs for financing farm activities, and differential, but generally positive, net impacts on growers.     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

民间粮食储备研究综述及其政策启示

粮食是国民经济的基础,尤其是在我们这样一个人口大国,自然禀赋相对稀缺,地区发展不均衡,人口数量呈绝对上升趋势,城镇化加速发展带来的耕地日趋减少的情况下,搞好粮食储备事关国计民生。民间粮食储备可有效弥补国库库容小,储备能力不足,占用资金过大,账实不符,陈粮不能及时轮换等缺点。本文综合分析了国内外的民间粮食储备现状,提出了政府资助扶持农户粮食储备的设想,这种设想倘若得到实现,必将有利于我国粮农(尤其是种粮大户)增加收入,保持种粮积极性,维持未来粮食生产能力,是当前我国寄希望通过直接补贴政策提高粮农收入水平的一种有益补充。     

Farmers' cash crop cultivation decisions in Southern Niassa province,Mozambique

The aim of this study was to evaluate socially farmers' decisions about the cultivation of cash crops. It specifically assessed the feasibility of World Relief-SempreVerde scheme by investigating the agricultural promoters; the factors influencing farmers' decisions to adopt, reject, discontinue or continue with the promoted crops; and the support required for improving the food and income security of smallholder farmers. The research took place in nine villages in Cuamba district, Niassa province, Mozambique. It involved a survey of 245 farmers stratified according to gender and wealth. Focus group discussions, questionnaires and interviews with leaders, farmers and managers of promoter institutions were used. A model for introducing cash crops is proposed. This research suggests that agricultural promoters should look to cash crops that can be intercropped with existing food crops; explore dry season agricultural activity; select drought-, pest- and disease-resistant crops; provide markets for existing crops; promote perennial crops; build a well-organised extension, credit and buying system; and/or incorporate livestock in the existing farming system.     

Increasing Wages,Factor Substitution,and Cropping Pattern Changes in China

This article analyzed the influence of increasing wages on cropping patterns from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results showed that the increasing labor cost provided a significant incentive to adjust the grain cropping pattern, which increased the production of the three major cereal grains but reduced the production of other grain crops. Increasing wages had a significant negative impact on cash crops. More labor-intensive cash crops experienced a larger negative impact in the context of increasing wages. The increase in labor costs also had a negative impact on the proportion of vegetables produced, which was more evident in northern China. A further mechanism test indicated that factor substitution was a significant reason for cropping pattern changes; this illustrated the substitution of labor by machinery not only between grain crops and cash crops but also among different cash crops.     

Growth in China's Grain Production 1978–1997: A Disaggregate Analysis

This paper analyzes China’s grain production during 1978–97. Using disaggregate approach to explore disparities in growth patterns of respective crops, the study reveals that during this period, almost all the increased output can be attributed to the growth of rice, wheat and corn. The contribution of other crops as a whole was almost negligible. The disparities in growth patterns were partly the result of crop adjustments, induced by changes in food demand, and dominated by substitutions of high-yield crops for low-yield crops. In this process, the adoption of new technologies played an important role. Varying opportunity costs of grain production in different areas also affected growth patterns of respective crops. The trend in China’s grain production in the past two decades suggests that the adherence to grain self-sufficiency has become not only increasingly costly but also unnecessary.     

"货币幻觉"与房价虚涨实涨——质疑"房价虚涨论"

在房价不断上涨的现象面前,房价上涨源于货币幻觉的观点具有一定影响。通过对房价上涨是虚涨还是实涨的分析,从而说明房价虚涨论的片面性。实际情况是,货币幻觉对房价上涨的影响是短暂的;收入的增长幅度低于房价的上涨幅度等因素,决定了房价是实涨而非虚涨。房价虚涨论的危害在于,如果房价上涨被房价虚涨论所误导,将会影响政府抑制房价过快上涨政策措施的制定和实施,也将对居民的住房投资和消费产生负面影响。     

中部崛起战略视野下的农村教育现状、问题及对策

中部崛起战略事关我国经济和社会发展的全局,具有十分重要和紧迫的意义。中部崛起战略是一个复杂的系统工程,需要找准支点,选择正确的突破口。中部崛起的战略支点在农村,中部农村崛起的关键在教育,因此,应把农村教育作为中部崛起战略的突破口。要通过大力发展农村教育,变中部地区的人口负担为人口资源。近年来,中部地区农村教育现状有了很大改观,取得了很大成效。在当前和今后一段时期内,围绕中部崛起战略的实施,中部地区农村教育:一是要进一步巩固普九义务教育的成果;二是要狠抓农村师资队伍建设;三是要努力做好农村继续教育工作。     

中国的和平崛起与现代化赶超

工业化时代的来临,使得大国兴衰走出了以往依靠武力征战的模式。持续推动现代经济增长,成为大国崛起的关键。现代化赶超史表明,和平崛起在理论和实践上都具有可行性。二战后和平发展的国际环境和中国持续推动现代化赶超的不断努力,使得中国有条件通过第四次现代化追赶实现和平崛起。解决好面临的国内矛盾与国际挑战,持续推动现代经济增长,成为中国崛起的关键。